Hello! Kennedy here, the dev for the Commonwealth of New England, a nation which will play a vital role in the Kalterkrieg. I have been working on New England on and off for the last 9 months or so, but most of the work shown here I powered through in the last month or so, enjoy!

Lore

New England first came into being in the fires of the American Civil War. During the countdown to MacArthur’s deadline, the six regional Governors of New England as well as the Governor of New York met in Boston to discuss the situation. They voted not to join MacArthur’s government, however with the syndicalist takeover of New York City and the New York-Pennsylvania border far from secured, the Governor’s Council was in a difficult position. The states each had National Guard regiments, but they were having enough trouble maintaining order in the states themselves, let alone defending against the syndicalists.
As a result, the governors decided to write a letter to Mackenzie King’s Government to intervene. The Canadians and New Englanders agreed to a treaty, and Canadian troops marched south to secure the New England-CSA border. For six months, from April 1937 to November 1937, the Governor's Council and Canadian Occupational Authority administered the nation jointly. Deciding that the new Commonwealth of New England was a legal continuance of the United States of America, the governors decided that the United States Constitution must be followed in its entirety. In November, the seven states elected the first New England Congress and met in Boston. With the states generally tired of Hoover’s austerity policies, the people elected Democrat David Walsh the first President of New England.
Walsh was an isolationist, but was open to government programs to get the government up and running. As a compromise to the progressive wings of the Democratic Party, Walsh picked Rhode Island Senator Theodore Green as his Vice President. Green was a solid supporter of a Second Square Deal, a series of massive economic programs to rebuild the American economy. While Walsh was not overly enthusiastic with these programs, Green, the Walsh cabinet, and Congress were all solidly on board.
Walsh and the New England Congress began rapidly building up the new nation’s military and industrial prowess through the Second Square Deal. With the War Production Board established, New England was not only producing materiel for itself, but also for Canada, and for lend-lease to its friends in the Pacific States. Once Walsh was elected, delegates from New England and the Pacific States met in Ottawa and signed the Ottawa Protocols, a document in which both nations recognized each other as both sovereign and as legitimate successors of the United States. They pledged that should the United States be liberated from the tyrants in New Orleans and Chicago, they would reunite.
As the CSA began to collapse, New England intervened. The capture of New York City came early in the war, and in 1939 the Canadians and New Englanders invaded properly with New England capturing New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania. New York City gained statehood in 1946 as a separate state, but New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania are still under military jurisdiction, with Longist and Syndicalist elements alike causing havoc.
New England sent volunteers to Europe during the Second Weltkrieg, but did not participate directly. Indirectly, they benefited enormously however, making massive amounts of cash selling equipment to its friends in the Entente.
With his second term rocked with scandal over an illicit homosexual affair, President Walsh opted not to run for a third term in 1945. Businessman, former Ambassador to Canada, and Secretary of State, Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. received the Democratic nomination, while the conservative Governor of Connecticut Raymond Baldwin ran for the Republicans. Kennedy was seen as a shoo-in but in September 1945 the Kennedy campaign was rocked with a bribery scandal. News broke that Kennedy had paid off Mayor of Boston James Michael Curley a number of times for political favors. With Kennedy’s support in Upstate New York crushed, and New York City not yet a state, Raymond Baldwin was able to squeak into the presidency.
Some of you may notice that as recently as early January, Joseph Kennedy was still the President of New England in Kalterkrieg. We removed him for a number of reasons. First, he was an extremely problematic figure OTL, virulently anti-semitic and racist. He also was defeatist, anti-democracy, and corrupt. We felt that his figure would not have made for a good presidential figure, and felt he may actually be colluding with the AUS. Despite this, he was tremendously powerful, and we felt the best way to dispense with his figure was to have him lose in a presidential election. Don't worry, the Kennedy family will return!
Before we dive into the actual KRG content, I need to explain a further note on political parties. The US political party system is already fairly difficult to translate into KRG. As the US is a true two-party system, KR and KRG’s multi-party political system is not easy to use. In addition, the US political parties were going through a major transition in 1936 OTL, Democrats becoming more socially liberal and fiscally aggressive, while Republicans were becoming more conservative. KR’s lack of a New Deal makes this even harder as the New Deal Democrats don't really exist, and to reflect that it is even harder to portray the parties correctly. As a result, here is the party situation for New England. Democrats will start in the social conservative and social liberal slots. The Social Conservative slot doesn't perfectly describe them, but can fit many of the religious, working class voters of New England. As the fifties drag on, the social conservative Democrats will die out, and will be replaced entirely by social liberals. While these ideologies are not perfect descriptions, we believe that this transition reflects the changes in the Democratic Party well.

Starting Situation

Here is the starting situation for New England. There are a few changes since the last teaser for New England but in spirit everything is mostly the same. New England starts with a massive economic boom. One thing we learned when researching New England, is that the area that comprises New England in Kalterkrieg made up 35% of the US GDP in 1950 OTL. This is a staggeringly high number, especially considering that Kalterkrieg Germany is only 60% of the OTL US GDP. Of course we have nerfed them from that 35% number a fair amount, the loss of the rest of the nation and the recovery from the New Deal coming a fair bit later both factor into that. However, their economy is among the five largest in the world, and New England is poised to become a true world power. Its partnership with Canada has freed much of Europe. However, there is great work still to be done.
New England’s first order of business is the pacification and integration of the new states. Through a tree and various decisions, the player will do just that, gaining the two new states as cores just before the 1949 Election. These focuses are mainly about raising compliance and reducing the effect of the Politically Radical States spirit. Once compliance is high enough and the tree is complete, Congress will vote on statehood for Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Later on in the PR we will discuss the process by which New England passes laws.

The 1949 Elections

To discuss the 1949 Election, we must first discuss one of our brand new systems in KRG which will be present in all American factions, the state interface! This interface displays the current governor, the composition of the state’s congressional delegation, as well as the popularity of each party in that state. Because of this system, we can actually simulate the Electoral College. You can see each state's electoral votes as well, and you better sharpen your electoral math and campaign strategically because it is properly calculated thanks to one of our best coders, Maho! When elections occur, the congressional delegation will be proportional to the popularities of each party in that state. If a senate seat is up for election, it will go to the largest party, same with Gubernatorial races. We know this isnt perfectly representative, but we feel this is the best way to present the American electoral system to the player.
President Baldwin will be running for reelection against Governor of Upstate New York and former Ambassador to Canada W. Averell Harriman. Baldwin is pretty unpopular, his cuts to social services and partial rollback of the Second Square Deal is unpopular in the new state of New York City in particular, a state that wields tremendous influence despite its geographical size. Harriman is running on a new brand of Democratic politics, advocating for government healthcare subsidies, an increased education budget, and increased consumer protections. These policies are likely to be popular in the new states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York City. He is relying on these states plus his home state of Upstate New York to carry him to victory.
While they will each have their own agendas post-election (the very outside lines of this tree), they also share many of the same goals (the inside lines). They will each share the same broad foreign policy, but will vary based on who the Secretary of State is. Harriman will choose Dean Acheson, a main proponent of the Canadian Montgomery Plan, a strategy to use financial support to prevent European Accord nations from falling to the Reichspakt. Baldwin’s Secretary of State John Foster Dulles will continue his doctrine of strong military support with support for the Montgomery Plan. Many of these focuses will require the consent of the New England Congress. On focus completion, a mission to pass the bill in the House will begin. As you can see, the descriptions of the focuses will tell you which factions/parties will support the bill or not. If you have support for the bill in the House you can pass the bill right away. It will then trigger a similar mission for the Senate. Once you pass the bill in the Senate, you will get access to the applicable bonus. For the National Highway Act it is a series of decisions to, well, build the National Highway System. Many of these focuses will require support in Congress to gain access to their effect, but even if you don't start with the support of Congress you can gain it through other whipping decisions. We realize this isn't perfectly accurate, but we did want to make this fun to play.

NATO and the Vancouver Summit

In late 1948, New England, the Great Lakes Government, Canada, and the PSA will meet at the Vancouver Summit. All four nations will sign on to join the North American Trade Organization. Based on the European Coal and Steel Community, this organization will reduce tariffs between the nations, allowing them to pool their resources and isolate the AUS. They will also work on mutually beneficial infrastructure projects like the St. Lawrence Seaway, and connecting the Trans-Canada Highway to the new Interstate Highway System. NATO will have the opportunity to expand, to the Caribbean, Central America, and even South America.

The New England Economy

The New England economy has grown to massive levels, but it is not immune to bad times. The integration of the new states will not be easy, and expanding the infrastructure of New England to integrate with Canada and NATO is a major project in the 1950s. This tree will span most of the first half of the game, maybe longer. The Delaware Commission is a reference to the Delaware River Valley, a major estuary in the new states and will be a major point of development. Electrification, medium density housing, and business expansion will all be major projects proposed by the Delaware Commission.
Also contained within this tree are plans for NATO expansions. The first in the Caribbean will unlock in the early 1950s, and will be targeted at the former British colonies: Jamaica and Trinidad, as well as Cuba and Puerto Rico. The second expansion in the mid-1950s will be targeted towards Central America, namely Panama and Costa Rica. Lastly, the final expansion in South America will target Colombia and Venezuela. Each of these expansions will unlock decisions to develop these nations from the NATO budget.
Another major player in the American economy is Canada. Canada has been buying weapons and ships from New England for almost ten years at this point, and the relationship has been incredibly beneficial for both parties. While the player can use license production and regular lend lease for land based military equipment, one area we wanted to expand was the capability for New England to build ships for Canada. Via this mechanic, set up by myself and Duodex, Canada can order cruisers or carriers. (Battleships are largely phased out, and smaller ships are so cheap that we felt it would clutter the ui). The ships built for Canada will have no modules, but Canada will receive bonuses to retrofitting speed, enabling them to customize them. We are really proud of this mechanic.

What’s next for New England?

Many of the things I have discussed will be resolved by around 1953-54, but that's only half the game. We have the rest of New England largely planned but not quite implemented yet, but progress is proceeding nicely. As per the Fortress New England spirit, the New England Army requires quite a bit of reform. The New England military trees will be quite extensive. Some of you military nerds may recognize the names from some of these New England Army Divisions, and just you regular history nerds will love these ship names.
As a teaser for post-1953, here is a collage of all possible Presidents of New England in 0.1. Instead of making you guess, here they are in order from top left to bottom right: Herbert Lehman, Nelson Rockefeller, John Foster Dulles, W. Averell Harriman, Raymond Baldwin, Thomas Dewey, and of course John F. Kennedy.
I hope you enjoyed our PR on New England. If you want to keep following the mod subscribe to KRG on reddit and join or discord. And for once we know our next PR, here is a teaser for it!

Resumen del 2020 en este pequeño subreddit: top 20 redditores con más publicaciones, top 20 que más comentaron. Y las top 10 publicaciones y top 10 comentarios

Army of Spies DApp Project on Cardano

Hi Everybody, [Long post ahead. So read at your own peril. tl;dr for the project below.]
We are the people behind the Army of Spies DApp proposal currently in Catalyst Fund 3. We're longtime Cardano super fanatics. We're hoping that we're going to get really good feedback on our project in Catalyst. But, we also want to reach out to the rest of the Cardano Community who might not be actively perusing the projects in the Catalyst Fund 3. Mods, please let me know if this somehow shouldn't be posted here. Anyway, I'm going to post our proposal and plan below. We would love any and all feedback that anyone could provide. Obviously, there are monetary grants involved in Catalyst. But, we are actually just as excited for our little project just to see the light of day after working on it for so long. Our first draft of the whitepaper for this project was way back in Early 2018. We've put a ton of thought and effort into it since then including many drafts of the smart contract which is currently in Marlowe. We are slowly learning as we go. We also know our little project has a long way still to progress. So, we'd love any and all feedback if people here would be willing to give it a look. Obviously, we're editing this and making changes as we go. So this is all subject to change and revision.
Army of Spies
“...but at the length truth will out.”
William Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice
tl;dr
Army of Spies is a Cardano based non-fungible native token product that creates a compensated “Curator” role in a smart contract powered marketplace that brokers obscure, or difficult to acquire, information. Blockchain derived finality and permanence of Curator role ownership will drive decentralized market growth via the efforts of each newly minted Curator. Army of Spies ultimately serves a public good as a decentralized public blockchain-based approach to the efficient allocation of information resources and erasure of non-mandatory information asymmetries powered by crowdsourced and bounty-based information discovery. The obscure, or difficult to acquire, information addressed by Army of Spies typically falls outside the reach of traditional blockchain oracle providers.
Table of Contents

Philosophy & Use Case
The Army of Spies User Experience
Under the Hood of Army of Spies
Marketing Strategies
Securities Law Compliance Strategies
Founder Team
2018-2025 Roadmap

Philosophy & Use Case
Our modern world, albeit drastically transformed by the internet over the last decades, is still a world of secrets and information asymmetry. Some secrets are necessary. Some are not. Among the unnecessary secrets are three broad categories of obscure or difficult to acquire information (“ODAI”): 1) information that someone doesn’t want revealed but has no legal or ethical right to protect, 2) mundane information that has value but is difficult to acquire, and 3) information that may hold an idiosyncratic value to one person but may still be inconvenient to acquire. These types of ODAI typically fall outside the grasp of traditional blockchain oracle providers. Let’s first describe these three categories of ODAI.
1) Information Someone Doesn’t Want Revealed
You don’t need to know the launch codes to the nuclear weapon arsenal of your favorite superpower. But, you do need to know if your elected officials are taking bribes from foreign corporate interests. It’s probably not okay for you to have the gate code to Taylor Swift’s estate. But, it’s probably okay for you to know the real identity of the land developer secretly buying up all the parcels of land on the same block as the corner store owned by your family. Some secrets are necessary. But, information is a valuable resource and its efficient allocation is generally a net positive for the progress of a technologically based society. In the case of those bits of information that are not mandatory secrets, the hidden hand of the market should guide disclosure. The whistleblower should be rewarded for telling the world that the politician is corrupt, and watchdog groups will gladly raise funds to secure the disclosure of that information. Someone who sees Kit Harington with long hair on the streets of London should be able to accept a reward for that information from a Game of Thrones superfan on the other side of the world. The shop owner should be able to ask if anyone can identify the looter on his security cameras who stole the inventory that cost his or her life savings. The peaceful side lines protester should be able to ask if anyone can identify the person who permanently blinded her with a traffic cone recklessly thrown at her head. A small time merchant should have a means to discover if the real buyer behind the strawman offer they just received was actually from their biggest competitor or from a random individual.
2) Mundane Information that is Difficult to Acquire
There are also less sensational more day-to-day categories of mundane information that might be valuable but difficult, costly, or inconvenient to acquire in isolation: you might want to know how long the line is at your favorite bar on Friday night at 10pm, but it might not be convenient to drive all the way downtown to find out. You might want to know if there are a lot of girls or guys at the bar, but you might know that you can’t trust the hostess on the other end of the phone line when you call the bar. You might be willing to pay a small fee to know exactly what size fly professional fishing guides are using on a trout stream near your hotel, but you might be unwilling to pay for a day of guiding that would normally be the entry point for that disclosure. The purchaser of a vintage motorcycle should be able to find out the old-timer secrets about what brand and type of modern oil contains the right additives for his engine without spending days combing through old Reddit posts. You might really need to know how much it costs to hire an experienced cardano smart contract developer. But, you might realize that you can’t trust the answers you get on Reddit.
3) Information that holds Ideosyncratic Value and is Simultaneously Inconvenient to Acquire
There might also be information that is only valuable to you but still inconvenient to acquire. You might want to know if your significant other is really at the gym with his friends or at the bar by his office with that one woman he works with. It might be valuable to understand if the cute barista who works at your local Starbucks on Monday mornings flirts with everyone to feed the tip jar or if she is actually just after you.
For a small reward, any intrepid bar goer will gladly shoot you a pic or video of the line out front, the crowd inside, or of your significant other in the corner with his beautiful coworker. The college student who lives a block away will gladly go see if your significant other’s car is parked in front of the apartment of a female “friend” for a small bounty. The trout guide can make a few quick bucks by disclosing what size of fly to use, and you can get that isolated bit of information without buying a whole day of guiding. Someone who has owned your make and model of vintage motorcycle for decades will gladly give up their favorite oil for a few bucks. Someone who recently had their family’s property purchased by a certain land developer will happily tell you how much the land developer paid per acre if there is compensation for that information.
Would this level of availability of information be a tidal shift for modern society? Maybe. Is it probably inevitable over a long enough timeline given that there is a hi def video camera in every pocket? Yes. In the future, there will be no more secrets. You WON’T be able to park in front of your mistress’s house anymore. But, you WILL be able to get verifiable insider information on how much that land developer is really willing to pay your family. We’ll all just have to adjust our behavior to conform to a world with greater transparency. The only question is how we manage and allocate that information discovery and transparency. Army of Spies is a project aimed squarely at efficient market based allocation of information resources via the creation of a decentralized public blockchain-based global marketplace for information transactions. Army of Spies will not aim to facilitate any information transactions that might constitute, encourage, or aid criminal activity, illegal political espionage, illegal corporate espionage, or any other information transaction deemed illegal by U.S or European authorities. But, Army of Spies does aim to facilitate the erasure of non-mandatory information asymmetries.
Why Can’t Traditional Blockchain Oracles Provide ODAI Efficiently?
Oracle providers in the blockchain space have created wonderful projects like Chainlink and Ergo to provide a bridge between real world data and the blockchain world. However, these Oracle solutions are more appropriate for reaching readily available public information such as crypto prices, the weather, and who won the latest sporting event. When it comes to ODAI, there may only be a handful of people in the world with access to the ODAI. How many people have caught fish on your favorite stretch of your favorite river in the last few weeks since the temperature changed and know exactly what fly to use? How many people are in that club right now where you think your significant other is hanging out with their ex? How many people hold information about exactly which modern oil will not hurt the engine of your particular make and model of vintage motorcycle over the course of 100k miles? It also isn’t predictable who will hold ODAI and be able to provide it at the right time and how long it will take to identify someone who does have the ODAI.
Oracles and oracle pools can be easily constructed and operate efficiently where it is predictable where information will reside. An oracle who will provide data about who won the MMA fight on Saturday night can be easily identified ahead of time and incentivized to provide that answer. However, the ultimate best provider of ODAI is often comparatively unpredictable and is best identified through a highly decentralized bounty and curation model as used in Army of Spies. Being a traditional blockchain Oracle is a job undertaken as a routinized future information processing task. The provider of ODAI just happens to already have that information or just happens to be in a position to acquire it more easily than others. The magic of Army of Spies lies in efficiently creating an exchange of value between that person and someone willing to pay for the ODAI and curating possible multiple competing sources of that ODAI.
Why does Army of Spies Require Crypto?
Army of Spies is a crypto-mandatory project in that erasure of information asymmetry can only be carried out via a broadly decentralized system. This manifests itself in three broad themes.
1) Lack of centralized data storage is vital to avoidance of death by regulation. Parties seeking erasure of information asymmetry of any kind may easily find themselves in an adversarial relationship with state actors wielding the regulatory hammer. Such parties ultimately live under threat of seizure and shut down of their centralized data storage and processing. Just as cryptocurrency has only survived regulatory fatality via decentralization, so shall Army of Spies.
2) User confidence in Army of Spies is only be possible where there is no centralized data to be discovered by adverse parties. Private entities holding user data are regularly subpoened for such data by state actors. Centralized user data storage is also subject to the illicit acquisition of user data by bad actors through security exploits. In our modern litigious society, users also face completely legal discovery of their data via litigation by other private parties. Centralized servers are especially vulnerable to all three of these threats to user data. These combined weaknesses of centralized data storage mean that a system for transactions in obscure information can only operate efficiently on a decentralized basis.
3) Finally, adoption of the platform will not take hold if there is a chance the financial side of the information transaction could be reversed once the info is already conveyed. You can’t take back info you have already delivered to someone’s brain if they cancel their payment for that info after delivery. Immutability is king in transactions that remove information asymmetries. There needs to be a guarantee that the compensation will be delivered once the information is revealed.
The Army of Spies User Experience
Let’s get into the gritty details of how Army of Spies will actually work from the user perspective.
The Intel
As a user, you will decide that you want to know a secret (the “Intel”). This secret might be what size caddis fly you should use to catch brown trout on the Weber River this weekend, if your significant other is working or with his or her ex, or what type of modern oil you should really use in your vintage motorcycle.
The Intel Bounty
You will also decide how much that secret is worth to you. This amount (the “Intel Bounty”) is the sum that will go to the person providing you with the answer to your question. You will go to the Army of Spies website (www.armyofspies.net) which will list all the different topical categories under which your secret might fall (the “Intel Categories”). You will select the most appropriate Intel Category for seeking the Intel.
In eventual iterations of the website there may also be information listed about the particular curator (the “Curator”) of that Intel Category. There could be ratings and reviews of that Curator along with the number of successful Intel Bounties the Curator has completed, how quickly they are completed on average, and the average size in USD or ADA of the Intel Bounties completed by that Curator.
Once you have selected your preference as to a particular Intel Category, you will click on a link to navigate to the forum set up by the Curator for that Intel Category. You will be the person creating this particular Intel Bounty (the “Bounty Maker”). The forum setup by the Curator of the chosen Intel Category (the “Curation Forum”) will display the address of the smart contract (the “Smart Contract”) related to that Intel Category and Curator. You will send your Intel Bounty there in the chosen amount of ADA. You will then post your description of the Intel you are seeking (the “Intel Request”), the amount of the Intel Bounty you sent to the Smart Contract, and the ADA address from which you sent the Intel Bounty (for matching purposes). The Curator of that Intel Category will then confirm (using the ADA address you posted) that the stated Intel Bounty has actually been sent to the Smart Contract. This is where the Intel Source begins their work.
The Intel Source
Someone who knows the secret you are trying to uncover (an “Intel Source”) will then see your Intel Request and the Intel Bounty offered in the Curator’s Forum. The Intel Source will then post their proposed response to the Intel (the “Proposed Intel Response”) along with their ADA address. Their Proposed Intel Response and your Intel Request, will always be visible to everyone. There might also be other Proposed Intel Responses provided by other Intel Sources and they will also be visible to everyone. Not creating an “only the Bounty Maker can see the answers” architecture is intentional and probably key to adoption. New users will want to see the quality of Intel being provided before committing to pay a bounty for Intel in the same Intel Category.
The Curation Bounty
The Curator will be the ultimate judge and jury of which Intel Source wins the Intel Bounty (the “Winning Intel Source”). The Curator will also receive a share of the Intel Bounty (the “Curation Bounty”) equal to 10% of the Intel Bounty. The Curator will also act as moderator of the Curation Forum. The Curator will decide how long the Intel Bounty remains open and how many Intel Sources will be allowed to provide Proposed Intel Responses. The Curator will be able to promote his or her particular Curation Forum in whatever manner they wish. The Curator will also be strongly incentivized to provide a good experience to both Bounty Makers and Intel Sources alike since both will, in eventual iterations of the Army of Spies website, be able to review and rate the Curator for other Bounty Makers and Intel Sources to see. This same rating and review system will create a large disincentive for Curators to wrongly award Intel Bounties to undeserving Intel Sources or strawman sock puppet Intel Sources. This will discourage both dishonest curation and negligent curation by Curators. If either is happening, reviews and ratings will be negative and Bounty Makers and Intel Sources will just go to similar topical categories with better curation.
How Does One Become a Curator?
The Army of Spies website will sell non-fungible Cardano based tokens (“Curator NFTs”) corresponding to each Intel Category. The holder of the Curator NFT for each Intel Category will officially be the Curator of that Intel Category. The Smart Contract for each Intel Category will reference the Curator as whoever controls the address currently holding the relevant Curator NFT. So, the Curator position for each Intel Category will be easily transferable with the disposition of the relevant Curator NFT. Anyone seeking to buy a Curator NFT will simply search the Intel Category catalogue on the Army of Spies website. If the proposed Intel Category is not already taken or filtered as illegal by Army of Spies, the prospective Curator will be able to buy the desired Curator NFT. In the minimum viable product version of Army of Spies this will likely be done by contacting Army of Spies through the Army of Spies website and sending the prescribed amount of ADA for that Intel Category. In later iterations of Army of Spies, it is hoped that a more decentralized Smart Contract based purchase method will be developed.
The Intel Category corresponding to the Curator NFT will be strictly defined by the exact letters and numbers chosen by the prospective Curator as the name for the Intel Category. One person might choose to establish an Intel Category for “Tamarindo, Costa Rica Land Developers” while another might choose to establish an Intel Category for “Land Developers in Tamarindo, Costa Rica”. Both Intel Categories will be allowed and will correspond to different Curator NFTs that may be held by entirely different Curators. Both Intel Categories will appear in the list of topical categories on the Army of Spies website.
Upon purchase, the holder of the newly minted Curator NFT will be able to direct the link for that Intel Category to the Curation Forum setup by that particular Curator. Curators may choose to setup any type of forum they choose. This may be their own Subreddit, a self-hosted forum on a stand-alone website, or any other forum of their choice. It would be easy enough for Army of Spies to run centralized forums hosted on a controlled server. But, this would create a single centralized choke point that could be shut off by regulators and destroy the decentralized resilience of Army of Spies. Curators will also be able to promote their Curation Forum in any manner they want.
The Bounty to the Winning Intel Source
The Winning Intel Source would, of course, receive the remainder of the Intel Bounty which would be the Intel Bounty minus the Curation Bounty (i.e. 90% of the Intel Bounty).
Credentials and Evidence
Intel Sources may choose to bolster the strength of their Proposed Intel Response by providing evidence of credentials that would establish the veracity of their Proposed Intel Response. These credentials could be proof of education (e.g. here’s my diploma supporting that I’m an entomologist who knows what size flies are actually on the river right now), proof of expertise (e.g. here’s my Facebook account proving I’m a fishing guide who works on the Weber River every summer), or proof of experience (e.g. I’m not an expert on fishing but here’s a VLOG I did yesterday while catching a fish on the Weber River) .
In some cases, it may be more appropriate for Intel Sources to provide direct evidence of the Proposed Intel Response instead of credential based support for their answer. For example, the Bounty Maker who wants to know if her significant other is hanging out with his ex in a certain bar would probably happily accept a photo or video of her significant other furnished by an Intel Source. Likewise, the Bounty Maker who wants to know the length of the line in front of Bar X right now would probably prefer a video of the Intel Source in front of that line providing some proof of date and time as opposed to any Intel Source’s credentials as a bar line expert.
Credential and Evidence Challenges
In some cases, Curators may also wish to challenge the validity of any credentials offered by Intel Sources (e.g. that is not really your facebook account because I know of that guy) or any evidence furnished by the Intel Source (e.g. that wasn’t the line in front of Bar X tonight...that was Tuesday night...I know because the sign says 99 cent tacos and their website says that only happens on Tuesdays. Eventual iterations of Army of Spies, could even allow for Bounty Makers to offer an additional bounty (a “Credential Challenge Bounty”) for a Curator to disprove the credentials of an Intel Source.
Blacklisted Bounties
Army of Spies will not aim to facilitate any information transactions that might constitute, encourage, or aid criminal activity, terrorism, human rights violations, political espionage, or corporate espionage. To moderate these types of transactions in a decentralized system like Army of Spies, the Curator will have the ability to designate any Intel Bounty as a “Blacklisted Intel Bounty”. In such a case, the Intel Bounty will be returned to the Bounty Maker and the Intel Bounty and Bounty Maker will be moderated out of the Intel Category forum. If any Curator is refusing to designate illegal bounties as Blacklisted Intel Bounties, those elections will be reflected in the eventual ratings and reviews on the Army of Spies website and law abiding users will be able to avoid the topical categories controlled by such Curators.
Smart Contract & Curator NFT Architecture Considerations
At its core, Army of Spies will be run via Smart Contracts corresponding to each Intel Category. The initial intellectually tidy impulse would be to make every Intel Bounty its own smart contract. However, the rigor of constant automated Smart Contract generation for each new Intel Bounty in a distributed computing environment probably precludes such a scenario. Current thoughts revolve around a strategy of a single Smart Contract with inputs for each Intel Bounty creation and outputs for each Winning Intel Source and relevant Curator. Of course, this could create a significant “involuntary bug bounty” equivalent to the value of all Intel Bounties currently offered and residing in the smart contract. Initially, this risk can be mitigated by limiting the amount of any Intel Bounty to an amount of ADA equivalent to a low value such as $20. The Curator NFTs are planned to be created via the minting policy instructions laid out at:
https://developers.cardano.org/en/development-environments/native-tokens/how-to-use-multi-asset-tokens-in-the-cardano-node/.
Basic Adoption Strategy
The Army of Spies adoption strategy will be akin to that used by other NFT projects such as Unstoppable Domains and Decentraland. The buyers of the NFTs providing access to build on the ecosystem will also be the initial users of the assets built on the ecosystem. For example, a quick web search for news regarding Unstoppable Domains shows it has sold hundreds of thousands of NFTs corresponding to blockchain based domains in the last few years of its operations. Thousands of actual websites have been built on these domains. However, actual user demand to peruse these websites would probably be extremely scant if you didn’t count users who came into the ecosystem because they bought one of the NFTs corresponding to a domain or were considering it. People buy access to build on the ecosystem or at least to speculate on the NFT granting that right. Those same people then become the initial users of the things built on the ecosystem.
This could be seen of Decentraland on its initial launch as well. How many users were wondering around the Decentraland map on launch day who didn’t own some kind of NFT related to the project or weren’t at least taking a peek to decide if they should speculate on a LAND or an NFT based username or etc? We can only guess. But, probably not a gigantic percentage. The initial users were largely NFT owners or people deciding if they should buy an NFT related to the project. This usage of the project then drives more purchases of the various NFTs in the project (from hats, to usernames, to LANDS, to Estates) which then drives more usage which then drives more NFT purchases in a beautiful self-reinforcing cycle.
Army of Spies will be the same. Purchases of the Curator NFTs will be the spark that ignites the combustion that initially pushes the pistons. Whether purchasers are planning to build out an actual Curation Forum or just speculating on the NFT to sell it at a higher price down the road, those purchasers will likely also be the initial Bounty Makers and Intel Sources using Army of Spies.
To kick off this self-reinforcing cycle, Army of Spies could be marketed on an incremental grass roots basis by making simple organic explainer posts, one Subreddit at a time, in all types of topical Subreddits. These explainer posts would be tailored to each subreddit and describe how, for example, anyone in the “Porsche 911” subreddit could simply purchase the Curator NFT for “Porsche 911” and turn their interest and knowledge of the topic into a possible money making venture. Someone in the “Denver” subreddit might want to purchase the “LoDo Denver Bars” Curator NFT and curate bounties related to things happening in those bars.
Initial purchasers of the Curator NFTs will be making the acquisition as an investment in future access to the ecosystem. This future access characteristic of the purchase along with the decentralized ethos of the crypto space is likely to weigh in favor of an acceptance of the premise that Curators should host their own Curation Forums instead of some more centralized architecture.
Acceptance of this “do-it-yourself” approach is already exhibited by buyers of Decentraland Lands who would possibly have to build something on their lands and by Unstoppable Domains customers who would have to build out websites on top of their decentralized URLs. These purchasers are buying a piece of finite access to the ecosystem on a bet that the ecosystem will develop into something more or that someone will use that finite access to build something on that purchaser’s piece of the ecosystem. In the crypto/blockchain space these types of NFT products are actually a very attractive value proposition in that they present an already functioning consumer crypto product in an endless sea of thousands of blockchain coin products that only purport to one day serve as the rails on which functioning products would operate. Army of Spies will present the same value proposition in that a purchaser of a Curator NFT will be able to immediately set up their own forum and start trying to drive traffic there (in addition to whatever traffic they receive from the Army of Spies website) or they can simply hodl the Curator NFT until the ecosystem develops. You see many examples of both strategies with Decentraland “LANDS” NFT holders and Unstoppable Domain URL holders today.
The Army of Spies Smart Contract
Below is the Marlowe code for the current draft of the Army of Spies Smart Contract. This code can be viewed in a very visual Blockly format if dropped into the Marlowe Playground at https://alpha.marlowe.iohkdev.io/#/simulation.
When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Intel Bounty"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
)
[Bound 1 1000]
)
(When
[Case
(Deposit
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Curator Intel Source Selection"
(Role "Curator")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(If
(ValueEQ
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Curator Intel Source Selection"
(Role "Curator")
))
(Constant 1)
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Intel Source Claims Intel Bounty"
(Role "Intel Source")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(If
(ValueEQ
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Intel Source Claims Intel Bounty"
(Role "Intel Source")
))
(Constant 1)
)
(When
[Case
(Choice
(ChoiceId
"Confirm Intel Source Won"
(Role "Curator")
)
[Bound 0 1]
)
(If
(ValueEQ
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Confirm Intel Source Won"
(Role "Curator")
))
(Constant 1)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Account (Role "Intel Source"))
(Token "" "")
(Scale
(9%10)
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Curator"))
(Token "" "")
(Scale
(1%10)
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
)
Close
)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Account (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
3500
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
3000
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
2500
(Pay
(Role "Bounty Maker")
(Party (Role "Bounty Maker"))
(Token "" "")
(ChoiceValue
(ChoiceId
"Bounty Amount"
(Role "Bounty Maker")
))
Close
)
)]
2000 Close
)]
1500 Close
)]
1000 Close
A Look Forward to a Potential Army of Spies 2.0
A Potential Future Army of Spies 2.0 with More Decentralized Curation within Topical Categories
The original vision for Army of Spies involved curation voting and curation staking by multiple curators even within a single Intel Category. Attempts were even made to model out this architecture in Marlowe. Eventually, the vision of the NFT Curator as detailed above won the day for Army of Spies 1.0. However, the original vision of curation voting and curation staking will be excerpted here for conceptual background on possible future deployment in an Army of Spies 2.0 evolution.
The Potential Army of Spies 2.0 Decentralized Curation Bounty & Curation Staking
In this model, there will be no NFT based curator, and other regular users perusing the forums (the “Curators”) will be allowed to vote on whether or not the intel provided is sufficient. Only an Intel Source receiving enough votes (a “Winning Intel Source”) will win his share of the Intel Bounty. The Curators will also receive a share of the Intel Bounty (the “Curation Bounty”) equal to 10% of the Intel Bounty for voting for the correct answer. To avoid the problem of straw man curators (i.e. an Intel Source creating a second, or third, or nth account to vote for his own intel even when it is obviously not sufficient to be the bounty winning intel), each Curator will be required to stake 1% of the Intel Bounty in order to vote (the “Curation Stake”). Curators who vote for an answer that does not get sufficient votes (the “Losing Curators”) will have their Curation Stake slashed. Curation Stake slashing will involve forfeiture of the Curation Stake and transfer of such stake to the Bounty Maker in majority with a small sliver going to AOS. Each Winning Curator will receive a share of the Curation Bounty equal to the Curation Bounty divided by the number of Winning Curators plus a return of their Curation Stake. In other words a Winning Curator can expect to receive a sum equal to the Intel Bounty divided by the number that is equal to the product of 10 multiplied by the number of Winning Curators. Such Winning Curator will also see a redemption of their Curation stake (which we have already defined above as 1% of the Intel Bounty). Let’s go back to our example of the fishing question and the 100 unit Intel Bounty. If there were five Winning Curators, the sum due to each Curator would be:
10 units/ 5 Winning Curators
= 2 units reward per Winning Curator
+ 1 unit as the return of their Curation Stake
= 3 units.
In order to further mitigate strawman curation, there will also be a second round of curation voting where no stake will be required. This second round will only happen when an Intel Source has already passed the first round. This round of curation voting will subject any strawman curators to the tyranny of the crowd. Here we will be leveraging outrage culture. If anything is true of the online landscape today, it is that people love to call other people out for breaking the rules. So, we will allow a larger number of people to vote in this second round and they will not be required to put up a stake to do so. In this “tyranny of the crowd round”, the voters will only be allowed to vote against the result obtained in the first round. Since the second round only happens if an Intel Source passes the first round, this means that in the second round, votes can only be cast against the particular Intel Source.
If dishonest curation is still occuring under this system, the Curation Stake could also always be increased until an optimum balance is struck between deterrence of dishonest curation and participation in curation.
So, in summary, curation voting will look like this:

a first round of staked curation voting;
if the Intel Source doesn’t receive sufficient votes in the first round, that Intel Source has lost and is out;
if the Intel Source does receive sufficient votes in the first round, he or she progresses to the second round;
this second “tyranny of the crowd” round will be unstaked and votes can only be cast AGAINST the particular Intel Source; and
the Intel Source has reached the finish line and will collect the Intel Bounty if there are not sufficient votes against the Intel Source in the second round.

Army of Spies 2.0 Curation and Intel Provision Rankings
In order to further incentivise honest curation, the AOS platform could eventually also display the number of times any given Curator has been a Winning Curator along with the number of times that Curator has been a Losing Curator. Likewise, all Intel Sources will have a ranking showing how many times they have been a Winning Intel Source and the number of times they have been an Intel Source who did not get the highest number of curation votes (a “Losing Intel Source”). These rankings will be shown to other users giving curation votes so that they can take into account the credibility of the Intel Source and the other Curators voting for a particular Intel Source.
Army of Spies 2.0 Blacklisted Transactions Bounties
Army of Spies will not facilitate any information transactions that might constitute, encourage, or aid criminal activity, terrorism, human rights violations, political espionage, or corporate espionage. To moderate these types of transactions in a decentralized system like Army of Spies, there will have to be a bounty for identification of any “Blacklisted Intel Bounty” to incentivise Curators to flag such Intel Bounties. To avoid the strawman curator issue with such Blacklisted Intel Bounties (i.e. the Bounty Maker creating sock puppets to get an illegitimate Intel Bounty past the Blacklist Curation), the Curator who wins the bounty for flagging a Blacklisted Intel Bounty (a “Successful Blacklister”) will be randomly selected from the whole cohort of Curators who vote for the flagging of any particular Intel Bounty. The Blacklist Voting will also involve a “tyranny of the crowd” vote where an Intel Bounty that has passed the first round of BlackList voting can still be blacklisted by non-staking voters who can only vote against the Intel Bounty but not in favor of it passing. The Blacklisted Intel Bounty will be equivalent to a percentage of the Intel Bounty posted by the Bounty Maker. Another sliver of the Intel Bounty will also be forfeited to AOS. This will mean that the Bounty Maker would forfeit some or all of the offered bounty with no info in return. Flagging of Blacklisted Intel Bounties will require the normal Curation Stake of 1% of the Intel Bounty. The Curation Stake of Curators who attempt to dishonestly or inaccurately identify a Blacklisted Intel Bounty (i.e they voted to Blacklist but the group decided otherwise) would then go to the Bounty Maker with a sliver going to Army of Spies..
Proposed Utilization of Funds
Any funds awarded to Army of Spies in Project Catalyst Fund 3 will be used to procure the services of devolopers who can assist with smart contract development, the NFT minting policy, web development, and the overarching architecture connecting all the pieces. While the current team has been dabbling in Marlowe (and a tiny bit in Plutus) for the last few years, they would like to benefit from the expertise of someone close to IOHK or Emurgo or otherwise qualified to tell them what they are missing and help solve the inevitable problems that will be discovered. The Fortune 500 procurement experience of one of the current team members is expected to be very valuable in obtaining these services in a timely fashion and at prudent costs.
Roadmap
Milestone 1
-Refine Curator NFT Concept and Marlowe smart contract.
-Refine architecture for the interaction of the various roles with the Marlowe contract.
-Procure services of developers to fill any missing gaps between NFT minting policy, smart contract, and website.
Milestone 2
-Buildout AOS website with: 1) functionality for NFT Sales; 2) catalogue of topical categories; and 3) explainer and other marketing content.
-Begin Curator recruitment by using organic Subreddit by Subreddit posts.
Milestone 3
-Slowly bootstrap adoption by focusing on Curator recruitment, one subreddit at a time.
-Market directly in any and all suitable subreddits for potential Curators matching that topical interest category.

Subreddit Stats: vzla top posts from 2019-12-29 to 2020-12-27 22:38 PDT

Robinhood Banning GameStop demuestra que el mercado libre es una mentira

	Submissions	Comments
Total	1000	30276
Rate (per day)	2.74	82.65
Unique Redditors	401	3445
Combined Score	105522	131410

Robinhood es una aplicación de negociación de acciones que existe para "democratizar las finanzas", pero también, en ocasiones, le prohibirá comprar acciones porque expertos democráticamente irresponsables las han declarado sobrevaloradas.
Este fue el mensaje desconcertante que Robinhood envió a sus lectores el jueves por la mañana, cuando la locura por las acciones más desconcertante en la memoria moderna empujó el precio de una acción de GameStop por encima de $ 440.
Al momento de escribir este artículo, el rally de GameStop parece estar desvaneciéndose . Pero las preguntas que el fenómeno ha planteado - sobre la ética de aplicaciones-stock de comercio gamified, las desigualdades entre los inversores grandes y pequeños, cómo se determinan en realidad precios de las acciones, y lo que el mercado de valores es para - parecen crecer más numerosos e irritantes por la hora.
Afortunadamente, Chris Arnade puede tener algunas respuestas. El ex comerciante de bonos pasó dos décadas en Wall Street antes de desilusionarse con la cultura de cinismo y codicia de su profesión. En los últimos años, ha invertido la mayor parte de su tiempo en fotografía y escritura, por lo general sobre la clase social y la pobreza en los EE. UU. Pero ha protegido estas actividades productivas con no poca cantidad de ocio al acecho en Reddit. Lo que hace que su cerebro sea más apto para picar.
Intelligencer habló con Arnade el jueves sobre cómo la prohibición de GameStop por parte de Robinhood destaca la fraudulencia del "mercado libre", por qué los toros de GameStop de Reddit serían aclamados como genios en Wall Street (si solo tuvieran las credenciales adecuadas), y qué "el goteo la corrupción de los ricos ”le está haciendo a la cultura estadounidense, entre otras cosas.
Usted escribió en Twitter el miércoles “La horda Reddit través de la acción colectiva está haciendo a los fondos de cobertura lo hacen los fondos de cobertura a los inversores normales todo el tiempo.” ¿Qué quieres decir con eso?
Los fondos de cobertura pueden operar de diferentes formas. Pero uno clásico es tomar una posición y luego "hablar bien". Entonces, vas a Davos, vas a cenar a conferencias de inversión y usas todo el conocimiento que obtienes de estas conversaciones con funcionarios gubernamentales y otros inversionistas para realizar un intercambio. Y ejecuta esa operación de una manera que le permite aprovechar al máximo su inversión mediante la explotación de productos financieros complejos y lo que llamamos "tecnicismos" en el mercado: la forma en que otras personas están posicionadas, las posiciones que tienen las personas. Luego ingresa a CNBC, envía boletines matutinos, envía mensajes directos a través de Bloomberg a sus amigos y vende a todos en su comercio.
Ese es un comportamiento aplaudido en Wall Street. Estás burlando a la sala y le estás diciendo a la gente que estás burlando a la sala. En muchos sentidos, eso es lo que sucedió en Reddit durante los últimos seis meses. Pero no lo hizo una sola empresa; lo hicieron 2,3 millones de autodenominados degenerados.
Y realmente hicieron ambas cosas: ¡tomaron una posición y hablaron su libro! De hecho, alguien hizo una presentación bastante buena sobre por qué se infravaloraba GameStop, una presentación que habría tenido bastante éxito en los círculos de los fondos de cobertura hace un tiempo. Y luego construyeron sobre eso y todos se apilaron. Lo hicieron de una manera muy inteligente para aprovechar el posicionamiento de Wall Street.
¿Es posible resumir brevemente lo que hizo que su oficio fuera inteligente (de una manera que un lector lego entendería)?
Lo hicieron a través de "opciones de compra". Que es cuando compra el derecho a comprar una acción a un precio fijo dentro de un período de tiempo específico. Digamos que GameStop cotizaba a 20 dólares la acción. Los Redditors comprarían una opción de compra que les da derecho a comprar una acción de GameStop por $ 50 en algún momento en el futuro cercano. Y puede comprarlo muy barato porque nadie cree que el precio de una acción de GameStop supere los 50 dólares. Los agentes de bolsa venderán las opciones de compra a un precio bajo porque creen que es un evento de baja probabilidad. Pero los Redditors saben que no es un evento de baja probabilidad porque van a hacer subir las acciones.
Ahora, los corredores de bolsa no quieren correr riesgos, al contrario de lo que mucha gente parece pensar. No quieren apostar a que las acciones de GameStop no superen los 50 dólares. Entonces, cuando venden las opciones de compra, cubren su riesgo. Y lo hacen comprando sus propias acciones de GameStop, por lo que obtienen algún beneficio si las acciones de alguna manera superan los $ 50. Pero parece un pequeño riesgo. Entonces, si vendieron una opción de compra por 100 acciones, solo comprarán cinco o diez.
Entonces los Redditors comienzan a subir el precio. De repente, los corredores de bolsa tienen que comprar más acciones de GameStop para cubrir su riesgo. Pero cuando hacen eso, el precio de las acciones sube aún más. Se convierte en lo que se llama una "compresión gamma". Y los Redditors también saben, como escribiste en tu artículo , que muchos jugadores importantes estaban acortando GameStop. Entonces sabían que podían hacer un pequeño apretón , lo que desencadenó compras adicionales en todo el espectro por parte de los fondos de cobertura que estaban cortos y luego de los banqueros que se quedaron atrapados en un apretón gamma y tuvieron que proteger sus coberturas. Así que se dirige a la luna.
Todo eso se considera un juego limpio en Wall Street. Esa inteligencia se ve recompensada. Es por eso que a la gente de los fondos de cobertura se les paga mucho.
¿Crees que los inversores de Reddit sabían lo que estaban haciendo?
Eso no me queda claro. Creo que acaban de darse cuenta de que podrían sacar mucho provecho de su inversión comprando opciones de compra. Y luego creo que algunos notaron: "Oye, a medida que subimos el precio, esto hará que tengan que comprar más y luego se convertirá en una profecía autocumplida". Sin embargo, sucedió, lo que la multitud de Reddit hizo colectivamente fue un intercambio inteligente. Es el tipo de cosa que le haría ganar la admiración de Wall Street.
Para jugar al defensor del diablo (es decir, de los fondos de cobertura): cuando los fondos de cobertura ejecutan ingeniosas hazañas de manipulación del mercado, los perdedores son generalmente otras personas ricas. Por el contrario, cuando los carismáticos carteles de Reddit (que entraron en el comercio de GameStop temprano) intentan la misma maniobra, lo hacen alentando a un grupo de inversores aficionados no adinerados a que se amontonen en un comercio que muchos probablemente no entienden. De modo que los perdedores están potencialmente menos protegidos contra las luchas financieras. Ese al menos parece ser el tipo de distinción que los WallStreetBets de CNBC quieren hacer. ¿Hay algo en ese argumento paternalista?
Creo que eso llega al meollo de la cuestión: o crees en el libre mercado o no. Para ser claro, no lo hago. No estoy sugiriendo que lo que hacen los fondos de cobertura sea legítimo y, por lo tanto, lo que hace Reddit sea legítimo. Estoy diciendo que tienes que aplicar tus estándares por igual. Personalmente, no estoy particularmente feliz de que Reddit esté copiando los fondos de cobertura. Ojalá los fondos de cobertura dejaran de hacer lo que están haciendo. Pero si es legal para los fondos de cobertura, puede comprender por qué las personas en Reddit se indignarían cuando las personas actuaran como si no fuera legal para ellos hacer lo mismo.
La ideología de Wall Street es el libertarismo. Es que las personas tienen albedrío y se les debe permitir ejercerlo. Es una cosmovisión no paternalista. Es "Todo el mundo sale por sí mismo, y la razón por la que ganamos dinero no es porque seamos más egoístas, sino porque somos más inteligentes". Si esa es tu actitud, está bien. Esa no es mi actitud. Creo que el espíritu de Wall Street - "Beneficios a toda costa, todo es un mercado, el mundo es un casino, solo quiero ganar dinero para poder comprar mis pepitas" - es realmente negativo. No me gusta que la actitud corrupta de los ricos se haya filtrado. Pero si los ricos van a poder jugar a este juego, ¿por qué te sorprende que los menos ricos empiecen a jugar?
Sospecho que sé tu respuesta, pero: ¿Estuvo mal que Robinhood prohibiera a sus usuarios comprar acciones de GameStop (aparentemente para evitar que su base de usuarios aficionados perdiera mucho dinero comprando cerca del pico de una burbuja)?
Si. Yo pienso que fue. Mira, no creo que todo esto vaya a terminar bien. Creo que cuando se aclare el polvo, probablemente verá que no hubo una transferencia neta de riqueza de Wall Street a los inversores minoristas, sino una transferencia de riqueza de Wall Street a Wall Street, de algunas empresas a otras empresas. Pero tienes dos opciones aquí en mi mente. El primero, que preferiría, es regular todo Wall Street, de modo que el engaño intelectual que está legitimado por la clase acreditada se reduzca un poco y los Redditors también se regulen. O puede desregular y dejar que la multitud de Reddit haga lo que está haciendo: admitir que es un jugador nuevo y tan legítimo como usted. Es la hipocresía lo que frustra.
¿Cuál es el costo de la hipocresía paternalista en su opinión? ¿Que sirve para deslegitimar el sistema y alimenta la reacción populista? ¿O se trata solo del principio?
En última instancia, es contraproducente porque todo lo que haga para tratar de detener a estas personas, solo los hará más cínicos y más convencidos de que el sistema está manipulado y, en consecuencia, más propensos a hacer cosas que son simplemente divertidas . Cosas que las élites consideran disruptivas. Cuando el sistema es tan descaradamente injusto, la gente se va a enojar cada vez más. Me enoja más y lo entendí bastante bien. No debería estar sentado aquí enojándome por esto, pero me están haciendo querer apoyar más a la multitud de Reddit. Deja de hacer esto. Sea justo, hombre.
Creo que lo que la "clase acreditada", en su frase, encuentra escandaloso sobre el comercio de los Redditors no es solo que las personas que lo hacen son extraños groseros, sino también que el "pequeño apretón" específico que están ejecutando es casi satírico: se burla de la noción de que el precio de las acciones de una empresa está determinado por sus "fundamentos", por estimaciones racionales de su potencial de ganancias basadas en sus ingresos netos y la salud de su industria. Las acciones de GameStop no se dispararon porque la venta minorista de videojuegos de ladrillo y mortero se convirtió en una mejor propuesta comercial. Se dispararon porque GameStop se convirtió en un "meme". Y una vez que demuestre que esto puede suceder, surge la posibilidad de que las meras narrativas y el pensamiento grupal estén impulsando las valoraciones en el mercado de valores, aunque de manera menos atroz.¿Crees que WallStreetBets está socavando la racionalidad de los mercados financieros, o haciendo más visible su irracionalidad, de la misma manera que una caricatura ilumina los defectos de un rostro humano?
Creo que lo dijiste perfectamente. Es una caricatura. Uno de los secretos sucios de invertir en Wall Street es que solo tienes que conseguir que la gente compre tu historia. La mayoría de los precios están en gran parte libres de "valor", en mi opinión. Valor es una palabra difícil de definir de todos modos. Pero la clase acreditada, los profesionales, las personas legítimas, han definido la forma legítima de valorar GameStop, o la forma legítima de valorar a Nike. Y vamos a jugar el juego según esas reglas. Y vamos a CNBC, y vamos a Davos, y vamos a conferencias de inversores y vamos a conferencias del FMI para construir esa historia, para construir esa narrativa de valoración.
Y nosotros, los inversores, salimos todos a cenar, y todos llegamos a la conclusión de que así se debe valorar. Y todos saltamos. Es muy parecido a una cosa de Reddit. Todos acordamos hacer esto. Eso es lo que creo que falta en muchas historias. Mucha gente en Wall Street tiene las mismas operaciones. Todos llegan a la misma conclusión. Hay dinero moviéndose mientras la gente pelea por esto y aquello, pero en general, por lo que hice, con el macro comercio, casi todos tienen las mismas posiciones. Entonces, cuando la administración de capital a largo plazo explotó en 1998, todos perdieron porque todos tenían la misma posición. Lo mismo en el 2007 con la crisis financiera. Todo el mundo explotó, porque todos tenían los mismos intercambios; porque todos habían llegado a la misma conclusión; porque básicamente todos habían hecho el equivalente a lo que hicieron los Redditors.
Pero dónde somos diferentes de los Redditors: creemos que realmente hay algo subyacente llamado valor y que podemos saberlo. Una de las cosas asombrosas de este rally de GameStop es que expusieron nuestra noción de valor como un fraude. Así que mucha gente miró a GameStop cuando costaba $ 20 y dijo: “No hay absolutamente ninguna manera de que vaya a $ 40. Pero realmente, realmente no hay manera de que vaya a $ 120. La idea de que esté a 120 dólares es simplemente absurda. Según nuestro modelo de valoración, eso haría que GameStop fuera tan valioso como Ford o GM. No hay forma de que las acciones puedan hacer eso ".
Y los Redditors dijeron: “¿A quién le importa? No me importan tus ecuaciones. No me importan sus modelos de valoración. Voy a hacer que el precio suba porque lo único que tengo para mí es un número en la pantalla ". Así que simplemente quitaron toda la pretensión de Wall Street y lo usaron para exponerlo y arruinarlo. Creo que eso va a tener consecuencias a largo plazo. Cuando todo esto se calme, la gente tendrá que ser mucho más cautelosa acerca de dónde pueden ir las cosas, mucho más cautelosa al decir "Esto no puede ir a X porque eso no se ajusta a mi modelo". Porque una vez que simplemente no te importa el valor, o una vez que dejas de fingir que te preocupas por el valor, una vez que lo ves por el fraude que es, el precio puede ir a donde quiera.
Usted fue comerciante en Wall Street durante 20 años antes de salir de la industria, después de haber estado tan desilusionado con su vocación que ahora se identifica como socialista. ¿Esa desilusión reflejó cambios en la cultura o las prácticas de la industria financiera, o simplemente su propio agotamiento con la forma en que siempre fueron las cosas?
Fue un poco de ambos. Definitivamente hubo cambios en la cultura. Creo que a la gente le cuesta creer que en los años 80, Wall Street realmente tenía un sentido de responsabilidad fiduciaria hacia sus clientes. Pero lo hizo por el localismo. Había más conexión entre las empresas, los productos financieros que ofrecían y la comunidad inmediata a la que servían.
Ahora, hay una seguridad respaldada por activos. Puede negociar un valor respaldado por activos y, literalmente, no saber a quién se otorgaron esos préstamos. No sabes quién es la persona afectada. Hay 30 capas entre tú y el resultado final. Entonces simplemente se convierte en un juego. Realmente es solo este juego. Estás cambiando números en la pantalla.
Creo que eso es lo que me fascina de todo esto. La multitud de Reddit abrazó el cinismo de Wall Street, que trata todo como un juego, y lo tomaron y dijeron: “Está bien, esto es un juego. Y encontré un error en el juego ". Les están diciendo a todos sus amigos que hay un juego con un jefe débil. Y van a atacar a ese jefe. Porque son jugadores. Y los jugadores juegan.

The Bucket List of Juan

A bucket list cover page [Source: Swedish Nomad]
As a natural free spirit, I’m of the belief that everybody should have a bucket list. I believe it should consist of overcoming fears, achieving once unattainable goals, realizing childhood dreams, taking risks, and doing things that you wouldn’t do under normal circumstances…kind of like having that Magic School Bus Miss Frizzle “take chances, make mistakes, get messy” mentality. For me, I have 75 unique things I want to do before I kick the proverbial bucket. I’ve already completed a few of the following items. I’ll detail those collectively in a future post and the remaining items as I complete them in this blog as long as I’m writing. That written, here is my bucket list as written when I created it in January 2013…

Bowl a game of 220 or better. This would be a grand moment considering the best game of my life (166) is more than twice my career average (82.7).
Learn archery. Long before Jennifer Lawrence was picking cats off in The Hunger Games, I’ve always wanted to acquire this skill…for the physical benefits (improved upper body strength, balance, and coordination) and the mental aspects (clear mind and increased focus).
Perform the Argentine Tango with a native Latin American woman in Buenos Aires. Aside from the first dance I’ll have as a married man, this may very well be the defining moment of my life on any dance floor.
Perform the Foxtrot and the Waltz on a date. This is why I secretly took ballroom dance in Tokyo for 3 years…all for that moment to leave a marquee impression. I just hope the lucky lady respects the “lead and follow” rule.
Go sky diving. I’ve always wanted to do it. And considering I know a lot more about parachutes—courtesy of my one of my good friends—I don’t have an uneasiness about it anymore.
Go white water rafting. I just want to see what the craze is all about. It’s high risk with the rocks and the drops but I’m sticking to one of the lower grades. I want to complete a bucket list item, not die.
Zipline through the Cloud Forest in Monteverde, Costa Rica. I’ve never been one to be frightened of heights but after a particular incident in Air Force basic military training, I wasn’t really receptive to covering distances end-to-end hanging on a wire. That changed when I ended up by myself in one of the glass bottom Ngong Ping Cable Cars in Hong Kong a few years back. I’ll do a few runs Stateside before I venture down to journey through the clouds.
Visit Red Square. Let’s break it down. A historic city. Saint Basil’s Cathedral. The Kremlin. Lenin’s Mausoleum. The Iberian Gate. Ummm…yeah, for a history freak like myself (I did have a 5.0 GPA in the history division in high school), this is a must.
Learn to say “Hello, my name is Juan” in the native tongue of every nation in the European Union. I’m sure to impress a few of the locals and maybe a few expatriates in doing so.
Visit Cuba. Hopefully, those cats in DC will stop playing politics and get rid of the embargo so I can go and do my 3-day travel thing. But, if not, I don’t have any issues with going as part of a people-to-people exchange. Either that or I’ll give up the American citizenship and become a Canuck.
Visit Christ the Redeemer. There is absolutely no way I’ll allow myself to leave Rio de Janeiro without a visit. It’ll definitely be one of my more proud moments as a Christian.
Visit the Great Barrier Reef. No doubt about it, the only way I’ll truly get the maximum value out of that Nikon D90 I dropped a 12-spot on a few years back is to get a shot of this marvelous sight.
Visit The Acropolis of Athens. You don’t just pass up a chance to see one of the most universally-recognized attractions in the world.
Visit The Louvre. I love art museums and I actually visited this one as a teenager. But I was so young back then, still in my “tourist phase”. I didn’t appreciate it. A 2nd go-around is mandatory.
Visit Niagara Falls. C’mon…who doesn’t want to get a picture of Niagara Falls?
Attend the Toronto International Film Festival. I’m a lover of films so it’s no doubt that I’ll land myself in Toronto to attend one. Hey…why not see the hottest film on the block before 99% of the rest of the world does.
Jog end to end and back on the Golden Gate Bridge. Roughly 3 ½ miles…that’s the equivalent of a normal PT run during my Air Force days.
Buy an apple in Pike Place Market. Pretty simple but it carries a lot of meaning.
Visit Disney World. Every kid should experience the thrill of going to “the happiest place on Earth”. I didn’t get that chance in my youth. I’ll get there but I’m likely saving the moment for the 5th birthday of my first-born child.
Wave a flag at an international sporting event. A true fan waves the flag on the biggest stage.
Take a picture of Hong Kong from Victoria Peak. As a fan of skylines and cityscapes, the Hong Kong skyline from The Peak is the holy grail of skylines.
Experience A Symphony of Lights. Once one is done taking that famed picture at The Peak, get down to the Tsim Sha Tsui Promenade along Victoria Harbour at 8pm local and experience one of the best light shows ever.
Make a stained glass window. It’ll make a cool arts and crafts project. Besides, I could potentially create a family heirloom. What’s cooler than that?
Read every book by Charles Dickens. That’s my favorite all-time author. I’ve read all the majors but I’ll read them again and add the lesser-knowns too. Heck, I may even buy them all to add to my library.
Watch every movie that has won the Palme d’Or Award in my lifetime. The Golden Palm. The highest prize at the Cannes Film Festival. I’ve only seen 3 of the films released since 1984—Fahrenheit 9/11, Pulp Fiction, and Sex, Lies & Videotape—but my interest in watching the other 26 and possibly more since it is all the winners in my “lifetime” has reached a fever pitch of sorts since my official film festival debut (Toronto International Film Festival, 2013).
Become a better public speaker by joining Toastmasters International. Something I pride myself on is my ability to write well. My ability to write well has translated into me speaking well. I want to become an even better speaker. Eventually, I want to give an oratory address that will move people. Joining Toastmasters will put me in position. After all, their motto is “Become the Speaker & Leader You Want To Be”.
Become a notary public. It’ll probably be the closest to public office that I’ll get…and I get a cool stamp for being one, too.
Meet a Brit soul singer from my Windows Media Player. That’s definitely not an easy one considering that list consists of the following: Sade, Corinne Bailey Rae, Marsha Ambrosius, Leona Lewis, Joss Stone, Ms. Dynamite and Craig David. Laura Izibor is in there too but technically, she’s Irish.
Meet a MVP or MOP from either of the following: Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series, BCS National Championship Game, or Men’s Final Four. It would be extra cool to have an opportunity to converse with the guy about one of the biggest moments in his athletic career.
Make the front page of the newspaper. I’ve been in the newspaper plenty of times…just not on the front. Being on the front page of the newspaper—local or national—is like legendary stuff. Everybody who knows you will probably keep that paper as a keepsake and you’ll have something to tell your grandkids. Hopefully, they won’t get me in under the fold.
Become a CNN Hero. I always said I wanted to make a difference on a global level.
Get an article published in a newspaper or magazine. You think they’re ready for me?
Acquire post-nominal initials. I consider it cool to have initials behind your name…kind of makes you seem like a big deal.
Win NaNoWriMo. 1667 words a day for 30 days in November. That’s it? Well, go ahead and give me my award because 50000 words ain’t nothing to me.
Audition to be an extra in a film. Everybody loves to see their name in the credits. That’s why you see a lot of people stay back at the end of movies.
Drive a Lamborghini or Ferrari. I’m not flashy enough to ever own one of these joints but I’m high-falutin’ enough to rent one for a day.
Leave a valuable contribution in my area of expertise. I left a lot of knowledge, a lot of success secrets, and ideas for future development with those I worked with as I walked away from my military career as a civil engineer. I don’t know if any of that was received and it’s likely that I’ll never know. However, I can use that same drive, that same fire for professional excellence I had as a serviceman in my civilian career and leave a contribution that’ll help advance my industry.
Create a trust fund for my child. I want my kid to have all the things I didn’t get a chance to have. I want my kid to live without the financial struggles I lived with early on.
Find the love of my life. A lifetime of mistakes, bad calls, and heartbreaks undone by a woman whose mere presence holds much significance to my future: how’s that for a love story? Can’t wait to see it in person.
Propose in stunning fashion. The funny thing about this is I already know how it’s going to happen and where it’s going to happen. All that’s left is a lead lady and a period of courtship.
Get married. It’s a prerequisite for a couple of other bucket list items. And I get to kiss somebody’s grown daughter in front of everybody.
Have a child. I want a daughter and we’ll try until I get one. Just kidding…or am I? Seriously, children are a blessing from the Lord and I would love nothing more than to have a healthy, happy child to raise towards being a productive citizen of society. It should be noted that I’m not limiting myself to just one child…just can’t complete this item until I have at least one.
Build a house. Why buy somebody else’s dream home when I can build my own…exactly how I want it.
Catch a wedding garter. I’m willing to bet the moment this happens, the preceding 6 bucket list items will all happen within 3 years.
Go to an Olympic Games. Doesn’t matter if it’s a Summer or Winter Olympiad, I’m going to one in my lifetime. And I’m gonna be there for either the opening ceremony or the closing ceremony.
Attend a national championship game. Being in attendance at college football’s biggest game and seeing the national championship game logo at midfield or feeling the intensity of being in the stands on the biggest Monday in the college basketball season would be a grand moment for me as a sports fan.
Attend a Kansas game at Phog Allen Fieldhouse. 16300 crazy fans rooting for the best team in America. Yep, I’m there. Rock Chalk Jayhawk…Go K-U.
Attend a Packers game at Lambeau Field. It’s like the cathedral for American gridiron football. I need to get an end zone ticket so I can take in the tradition of the players jumping in the stands.
Attend an Ohio State night game at Ohio Stadium. 106000 fans. Script Ohio. A live ESPN Saturday Night Football on ABC broadcast. I’m there.
Attend a match at Wimbledon. It’s like the greatest event in tennis. Hopefully, I’m there when Venus Williams and Rafael Nadal are still good.
Go to Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. I just want to see the Charlie Brown balloon.
Write a poetry book. I’ve written scores of poems of all kinds in my lifetime and I’ve always thought about releasing them to the public.
Stay in an overwater bungalow in Bora Bora. Can you say honeymoon?
Volunteer in a 3rd world country? Going to a place that’s very much likely to be even worse than the place I grew up in and giving my time to make life just a little bit more comfortable would be a great thing for me in so many facets of life.
Take a picture in front of every Statehouse in America. Completing this one means that I’ll have to step foot into every state capital in the United States. That means I’ll have to one day return to Florida and Louisiana…places I’ve long stayed away from.
Collect a postcard from 100 different cities in 100 different countries. This one is actually going to be easier than I imagined…being that I’m a Postcrosser and all. Oh yeah, I’m not counting the United States of America.
Throw 50 $50 bills from the top of 50-story building in a city of 1 million residents. How many people you know got $2500 to throw off the top of a building in a large city? I just want to see how the people below will react to money falling from the sky. And who knows…maybe it’ll be an on-time blessing for somebody.
Visit every Major League Baseball ballpark. I’m a huge fan of the game and sitting in attendance in every stadium should be a goal of every fan. Heck, I may do it all in one season.
Attend Game 7 of a championship series. I don’t know if there is any more dramatic finish to a sports season than a Game 7. It’s truly winner take all. The intrigue for me is that it’ll be short notice (1 day for World Series, 2 days for NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals). Good thing I got a StubHub account, a trusted travel advisor, and a leisure fund.
Kiss at the top of the London Eye. Every London bloke has this on his list…so should every American guy.
Take a date to a Michelin 3-star restaurant. So you got me, a hot chick who’s probably wearing a LBD, and one of the finest dining establishments on the planet…that’ll be a nice evening out all by itself. It would also be the book end of the dating experience for me being that my very first date was at the Arby’s next to my job at Domino’s Pizza.
Solve a Rubik’s Cube. I bought one with my first ever paycheck in November 2000 and I still haven’t mastered it. Heck, I still haven’t gotten 2 solid-colored sides yet.
Milk a cow. It looks creepy on TV and I actually think it hurts the cows, even though experts say it doesn’t. It would be an awesome experience though. I’ll even wear a straw hat and coveralls.
Walk the edge of the CN Tower. Yep…I’m gonna be all up on the top of one of the tallest buildings in the world, walking on the edge. That’ll be 102.3 times better than walking on the glass ledge at the Sears Tower.
Attend a FIFA World Cup Final. This is the marquee spectator sport experience. Being there for the championship of the world’s pastime is unmatched by any other sporting event.
Ride on the front row of every rollercoaster at Cedar Point wearing a blindfold. Two summers ago, it was a trip to Kings Dominion that I rode on the front row of The Dominator and just like that, the thrill-seeker in me that had been long dormant was awakened. Now, my eyes are set for a trip to Sandusky, Ohio to take on the dozen rollercoasters that carry a “high” or “aggressive” thrill rating. Doing so with a blindfold on adds to the intrigue.
Tip 300% on a meal $70 or more. I remember the days where I paid exact change on meals. Now, I pay 10% on bad service and at least 20% on all other service. Dropping a tip 3 times the price of the meal would by far be a sign of the best service I’ve ever had. Crazy thing is it might happen the same night I go to that Michelin 3-star restaurant.
Visit the Auschwitz Concentration Camp or the Kigali Genocide Memorial. Horrible, despicable, unimaginable crimes happened in both places…changed entire ethnic groups forever. A history guy like myself would want to see the damage up close and personal…and to pay respects to the lives lost.
Host a foreign exchange student. Personally, I think it would be cool to play host to a student from a foreign country. It would offer me the opportunity to leave an impression at an international level and I can probably make some kid’s experience in America or wherever I’m at a memorable one.
Attend every race of the Triple Crown in the same year. I’ll get to wear my #1 suit to the Kentucky Derby, drink a virgin Black-Eyed Susan at the Preakness Stakes, and listen to the New York theme song at the Belmont Stakes all in a span of 5 weeks. Who knows…I might even see history too.
Fly First Class on an Emirates A380. Imagine a 5-star luxury hotel 35000 miles in the sky, moving at 580 miles per hour…that’s Emirates First Class. You get a private suite with a sliding door, a personal mini-bar, a wardrobe, a fully flat bed with mattress along with on-demand food specially prepared per request, access to an onboard lounge to mingle with other passengers…and it has a shower spa.
Complete a 365 Photography Project. This is a mere test of discipline. I barely got through a 30-day photo challenge on Instagram. A 365-day challenge would be heartbreaking if I got halfway and missed a day. But that’s the intrigue of it.
Swim with stingrays at Stingray City. This is the only reason I’ve come up with for really wanting to go to the Caribbean.
Take up residence in Vancouver, British Columbia. From the first time I visited in 2006, I’ve always been fascinated with the city, the people, and the culture. Oh, and I can’t forget the awesome views along False Creek. At some point in this life, that’s where I’m going to live…or at least have a space where I pay a utility bill. Completion of this bucket list item includes the entire Greater Vancouver Area so setting up shop in the suburbs of Whistler, Richmond, Surrey, or Burnaby would count.
Complete this bucket list. It’s as simple as that.

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Progress Report 6: New England Part 1