2020 Italian GP Free Practice 1 and 2 Debrief

Words by UnmeshDatta26, Death_Pig, and showstopperNL

Discussion Threads:

More Impactful News Since Belgium

After a busy week in Belgium saw several important developments, the F1 circus returns to the Temple of Speed having seen another busy week on the news front.

Williams Family Leaves F1

The Williams F1 team announced last weekend that the team has been sold to Dorilton Capital, a USA investment firm. At the time, the destiny of Sir Frank and especially that of Deputy Team Principal Claire Williams were up in the air, everyone involved giving vague and non-committal answers to questions about the direction of the team moving forward.
There were plenty of rumors flying around that neither would carry on in the team, and these were confirmed this week, as the team announced this will be Claire Williams’ last race as Deputy Team Principal, with no replacement named yet. Sir Frank and Sir Patrick Head founded the team 43 years ago and the Tuscany Grand Prix will be the first time the team is not headed by someone with the Williams last name.
In those years, the team won 7 Drivers’ titles, 9 Constructors’ titles, with drivers such as Keke Rosberg, Nigel Mansell, Nelson Piquet, Damon Hill, Alain Prost, Ayrton Senna, Damon Hill, David Coulthard, and Jacques Villeneuve driving for the team. More recently, Nico Rosberg, Valtteri Bottas, Sebastian Vettel, and Lance Stroll all got their first taste of an F1 car in a Williams.
The team faced incredible financial struggles after the car’s performance dropped in the last few years, with main sponsor Rokit ending their agreement before the 2020 season.
The team has announced that the Board of Directors will now be composed of Matthew Savage (chairman of Dorilton Capital), Darren Fultz (CEO of Dorilton), and James Matthews (CEO of Eden Rock Group).
The departure of the Williams family from F1 brings a lot of sadness to many fans, even if the team name will be maintained (for now, at least), as one of the legendary names in F1 leaves the sport. We say goodbye to the Williams family with sadness, as they were a great example of the determination, hard work, ingenuity, and commitment that helped Formula 1 become what it is today.

Technical Directive Slows Down Engines

The new Technical Directive designed to end the use of “party modes” has finally been set by the FIA. Teams will now have to use the same engine mode from the start of qualifying to the end of the race.
Nominally, it appears the objective of the TD is to hold Mercedes’ PUs back, but initial analysis shows that it may actually help the Mercedes-powered teams, so we will have to wait and see what actually happens.
It would be great for fans of Mercedes and of schadenfreude if the TD had the diametrically opposite effect.
ERS usage has not been affected, so drivers will still have their hybrid options available to them.

Tech Talk And Rules Update

For this weekend, we will be seeing the lowest downforce packages of the entire season, with the skinniest rear wings and the most angled front wings for each team. Some teams, such as McLaren, even tested parts for this weekend at Spa, as they all bring their lowest downforce package to Monza. Expect to see tiny rear wings and top speeds in excess of 350 kph over the weekend.
The FIA’s crackdown on track limit abuse marches on and at Monza, they are cracking the whip hard. Timing loops have been installed at the exit of Parabolica to monitor track extensions (with both the current and next laps being deleted if the driver goes beyond the limit), whereas last year they had to rely on camera shots to make sure the drivers kept all wheels inside the white lines, resulting in some confusion about some track extensions.
There looks to be no chance of rain, and the temperatures look to be stable and pleasant throughout the weekend.
Lastly, in an attempt to avoid a repeat of last year’s qualifying debacle, Michael Masi sent the teams a document reinforcing the rule of Article 27.4 of the Sporting Regulations while also establishing maximum lap times for FP3 and Qualifying.
[Note: Article 27.4 reads: “[a]t no time may a car be driven unnecessarily slowly, erratically or in a manner which could be deemed potentially dangerous to other drivers or any other person.”]
With the tow from another car being very powerful at Monza, however, we will have to wait for tomorrow to see if the FIA will in fact strictly enforce Article 27.4, and also wait to see if the tragicomical scenes from last year’s qualifying session will be repeated.
—-

Free Practice 1

Friday morning started off slow, with teams waiting a while before getting started. The first timed lap came with around 20 minutes gone in the session, Alexander Albon setting a time that was promptly deleted for track limits at Parabolica. It would not be the last time we would see that happen.
The track showed its greenness, multiple drivers locking up as they applied the brakes,, the most notable of these being Sebastian Vettel and Romain Grosjean, who both locked up their front tires going into the second chicane.
Vettel’s struggles were not restricted to a lock-up, though. The 4-time champion went off at Lesmo 1 and kicked up a lot of gravel, finishing the season with only the 19th fastest time, ahead only of Nicolas Latifi. The other Williams FW43 was driven by Israeli F2 driver Roy Nissany, who finished immediately ahead of Vettel in P18.
Max Verstappen was also in trouble during the session, losing the rear in the second leg of Ascari and crashing into barriers. He was able to limp home to the pits, sans his front wing. The usual quick Red Bull pit work had him back on track in a few minutes, but he could not find his usual torrid pace, while his teammate found himself third behind the all-powerful Mercedes duo.
Mercedes seemed unperturbed about the engine mode change ban, stamping their authority right from the start. Even if Valtteri Bottas appeared to struggle in the early going with a number of lock-ups and off-track excursions, he managed to set the fastest lap by the time the checkered flag came out, a 1:20.703 leading his teammate by over 0.2 second.
As has been the case throughout the season, the W11 reigned supreme around Monza, Albon’s best lap 0.797s slower than Bottas’ best effort. The Mercedes driver was irked by both the Williams drivers for their car placement, the Finn being very vocal about Latifi and Nissany not paying attention to the faster car’s approach.
Outside the rarefied heights of the W11, the midfield battle continued to be as tight as ever. AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly’s different to 17th placed Kimi Räikkönen was less than a second. Ferrari, usually a force at their home event, had another miserable session, along with the teams that use their PU. Charles Leclerc managed the 11th best time, 1.201 second to Bottas, while Haas had to retire Kevin Magnussen early due to cooling issues. While teams do run different programs with their drivers in Free Practices, the lack of pace of the Ferrari-powered cars is still evident at Monza.
The battle in the midfield seems to be tightening up, with Renault’s Daniel Ricciardo predicting a strong weekend for the French outfit after the RS20 showed impressive pace around Spa. Touted to be an extremely fast car on straights, Monza should be perfect for Ricciardo and Esteban Ocon to show the RS20’s pace. McLaren, after having a few lacklustre weekends, will be looking to turn the tides at Monza as well. Racing Point will, obviously, try to frustrate the other two teams’ expectations, in what promises to be another intense battle in the midfield.
The traffic problems at Monza persisted, with everyone trying to get the best tow into their flying laps.
Lando Norris commented about how the FIA should do something about the dangerously slow speeds cars queued up to start their laps, and Lance Stroll was not particularly happy with the traffic through Turn 6. But the tow’s powerful effect cannot be denied, so teams are always looking for some help. Leclerc was clearly worried about getting a tow whenever possible, as the Ferrari could certainly use some help.
Gasly appears to have maintained his strong form from Belgium, setting some rapid times in the AT01 before having a slight off into the gravel at T5. But with the engine running and the car pointing the right way, he was able to get rolling without too much damage and set a very respectable time, good enough for 6th place, while his teammate’s apparent resurgence continues, with Daniil Kvyat finishing the session with the 4th best time, between both Red Bulls.
—-

Free Practice 2

The second session also got off to a slow start. After about 15 minutes, teams started to head out. Some minor incidents included Romain Grosjean locking up at Turn 1 and Leclerc having his time deleted for track limits at the Parabolica.
With more cars out on track, teams looked for ways to test out the slipstream. The midfield teams were especially eager to attempt to use a tow, as a properly executed manoeuvre can lead to a gain of half a second or more on a fast lap.
The session then went into a short lull where nobody was out on track for a few minutes. Around the 60-minute mark, the session went into a higher gear, with all 20 cars on track. 15 of those 20 cars got caught in a giant traffic jam towards to the Parabolica.
Ricciardo, after posting a strong session for Renault in the morning session, was on his way to a similar result, but had his time deleted for track limits at the Parabolica, with Vettel and Albon suffering the same fate later in the session.
After qualifying simulations were done, most teams did longer runs on more durable tire compounds, with Hamilton going 0.2 second faster than his teammate while fellow Briton Norris had a PU issue, and was forced to go back into the pits. He would make amends, though, finishing the session with the third best time, less than half a second ahead of Gasly’s AlphaTauri.
Over at Ferrari, Vettel’s woes were not done for the day. Coming into Lesmos, the SF1000 twitched sending him on a spin, and rolling in reverse into the Tecpro barriers, a severely flat spotted set of tires being the worst consequence. Leclerc had a small outing into the gravel at the same spot, grumbling “[t]his is such a difficult car to drive”.
Down at the Alpha Tauri garage, it was raining purple for Daniil Kvyat, why Gasly maintained his strong form through the session until the end, when something broke in his AT01, the French driver complaining of a springy rear end and slowly limping back to the pits.

Predictions:

u/DeathPig: Mercedes seem set to be on pole, even if they mess up the tow. The W11 is that powerful. However, we might see a toss up of the qualifying order with the teams thinking about which engine mode to use for qualifying as well as the race. I predict Mercedes, Red Bull, Racing Point to be in the top 6, with Ferrari, McLaren, and Alpha Tauri making up the rear of this train. As for the race, it should be a HAM BOT VER podium followed by Checo, who would have been pursued yet not passed by Alexander Albon. Ricciardo will move into sixth, Leclerc into seventh, and Stroll eighth. Personally, I’m not betting on Gasly after his problems today, but time will tell.
u/UnmeshDatta26: Toto Wolff has talked about how he thinks the party mode ban wouldn’t affect the team, so I expect the two Mercedes cars to be on top, along with their 2019 car painted in pink for Racing Point. That said, Red Bull are my pick for second best come qualifying. Alpha Tauri are sure to challenge for a top 10 spot following the great showing at Spa last weekend, although Kvyat has been some distance away from his teammate. McLaren should be close with Renault in the fight for the top 10, and as much as my Ferrari heart bleeds, I expect the Prancing Horse to be outside of the points. Leclerc could spring a surprise, but I don’t expect anything special. For Qualifying, I expect the two Mercedes drivers to share the front row along with the Racing Point duo, with a faint chance of the Red Bull duo breaking up the hegemony.
u/showstopperNL: I’ll stay away from the usual predictions, because I think we all know the score at front, but in the midfield and further back I’m really expecting some fireworks. Renault seemed really quick. It didn’t show in the end, but Ricciardo’s deleted lap time was 2nd fastest. With last weekend’s performance in mind I'm expecting big things. Certainly a top 6 in qualifying, maybe even out qualifying Max Verstappen. Renault will battle along with Racing Point and Mclaren for the top 6 on Sunday. AlphaTauri looked good, but I think when push comes to shove, they lack the ultimate one lap pace to really compete. Although I’m happy to be proven wrong. I have a soft spot for Gasly. The way he was treated by both Red Bull and the media seemed really unfair to me. I think Russell can make it out of Q1 again. He certainly seems to understand how to get the most out of his car. I don’t expect much from all Ferrari-powered cars. Both Ferrari drivers are very unhappy with the car, as showcased by their offs in FP2.
Editor's Note: Sorry for the delay, but the editor was called to help put out a small bushfire and things took a little longer than expected.

[Event] Saudi Arabia sets up Gambling Commission

[Lets Build] Travelers You Meet On The Road

Welcome to the 98th [Lets Build]!
TOPIC: People you meet traveling on a long stretch of road.

Die Roll	Result
1	You come across an older gentleman traveling down the path with a group of 6 small dogs walking behind him. He has them each on a small leash that is attached to his large backpack, filled with dog clothes and toys. Over the last few years, this man has trained these dogs to preform tricks. He is traveling from town to town to try and become a famous performer.
2	You pass a person draped in flowing red and gold cloth, eyes closed and performing what looks like an incredibly slow dance. Around them are several unconscious bandits.
3	You see an old woman with a young girl that is slowly moving towards your group. When you come closer you notice that the woman is actually blind and the girl is guiding her. That woman gets intense when you come closer and gives away a series of phrases, each of those can be treated as a prophesy.
4	A pair of newlyweds on their honeymoon headed to a secluded cabin in the woods. They're both charming and friendly, but the longer you talk to them, the clearer it is that something's amiss. Specifically, it's very clear that the groom has quite a lot to gain in the event of the bride's untimely demise.
5	You kick a rock, and it appears to grow legs and claws. On close inspection, it is a fist-sized crab disguised as a stone. All rocks in the immediate area reveal themselves to be crabs as well, which begin scattering into the grass. If one is captured, it disappears during the next long rest.
6	A dog leashed to a tree. There doesn't seem to be anyone else around, but if the party takes the pup its owner will try to find it.
7	A short woman peddling used magical talismans out of a cart. Her assistant, a large deaf giant who is pulling said cart, grins whenever someone comes near. Her name is Tabitha and she's rather charming in a softspoken way. A bit of prodding into the pair reveals they are both friends who once adventured together.
8	A man in tattered robes who claims to be nobility who was forced from his home by a wicked sibling. More likely he was kicked out for being a greedy twit, but the party can learn that on their own time as he makes more and more requests.
9	Two kobolds standing on top of each other wearing a old cloak. They claim they are a famous dragonborn warrior, and they do not seem to know that they are actually two kobolds.
10	A pair of horses, seemingly abandoned. A further inspection reveals they are still wearing riding tack, and seemed to be abandoned in a hurry.
11	A person digging a grave, with a body of some sort in a shroud nearby.
12	A lizard folk wearing a paladins armor. He poorly impersonates the paladin whose armor he has and pretends to be lawful good. Or maybe he’s had a change of heart after getting the gear. Either way, he’s hungry.
13	A shepherd with a dozen sheep. He keeps insisting that all the sheep are his and keeps looking over his shoulder.
14	A 10-man road crew removing a stump from the middle of the road. Four of the crew are armed with bows and complain about a dryad interfering with their job. Two are doing the actual work of removing the stump. The rest are "supervising".
15	A flash flood has blocked part of the road. A sorcerer is standing nearby offering to clear a dry path for a small fee. The sorcerer is true to their word and forms a dry channel to the other side. After crossing, the channel, the flood and the sorcerer disappear.
16	A pure black, unnaturally tall Tabaxi. She offers a magical item of the DMs choice in exchange for an interesting story. A player must offer a story that reveals a portion of their backstory, and beat a DC 14 persuasion check to receive the item. Each player may attempt this once, but each time it is failed the Tabaxi's interest wanes, increasing the DC by 2. If the Tabaxi's DC reaches 20, she retracts, unimpressed, and leaves.
17	A small and poor family, all their belongings in tow, moving to a new town.
18	A Firenewt wizard who sells magic minerals, crystals and dusts. He lives in a hut with a large fire in the middle. He spends most of his days at home making powders and crafting near the fire. Although he is not the kindest he is smart strong and helpful. He sells magical and non magical jewelry, fireworks, components and ingredients for spells and and recipes.
19	A lonely Bullywug who got lost and lives in a cave. He considers himself the emperor of the cave. He have other frogs and toads as minions and guards.
20	You see two figures riding on horseback: a halfling and a green dragonborn. They trot along for about a mile until they come across a heavily-guarded ornate caravan on the side of the road. As it turns out, the dragonborn is a senator, on his way back from a trip to the outer villages. They stopped to feed and water the horses, and the dragonborn accidentally dropped his keys in the caravan. The halfling is the locksmith from the next town over.
21	A stray dog, hungry and dirty, desperately needing help. It has a collar with a note attached to it which seems to be a cry for help!
22	A Rival party of the exact same class but different archetypes. They are a little obnoxious to their counterparts, and are out to do the same quest/mission/thing the party is up to.
23	A black knight traveling on horseback. Could be revealed to be some sort of illusion, or a wandering boss-type monster.
24	A hungry beggar, who if helped will come to their aid at a later date, if shunned will do the opposite.
25	A crazy old man who claims to know where a secret forest full of magic is located. You follow him but he is actually just trying to take you back to his home because he has lonely ever since his wife died.
26	Two older males each riding a giant snail. They sell common magic items, maps of nearby cave systems, and may teach the party how to enhance potions.
27	A man with piercing blue eyes, all visible flesh but his eyes wrapped in cloth bandages. Adorned in worn abd dirty cloths of a nobleman and carrying a religious text. He is polite and intense obviously religious and with a deep silky voice. Upon closer inspection, his flesh appears burned. Omens of doom and death follow in his wake.
28	A group of guardsmen transporting the corpse of their beloved countess back to her homeland. Upon conversation, the guardsmen believe foul play was involved and ask the adventurers to investigate.
29	Harrin, the halfling Chef and his employees, all halflings. They travel in search of the Gloomy Mushroom, said to be the most delicious thing there is. A big and gentle half-orc is their bodyguard. His nickname is Joy.
30	A blind man stumbling along the road with a stick. If the party stop to talk to he will talk about how he was the best bandit in the area in his youth. Problem is he never quit when he lost his sight. His buddies are hiding in the wilderness on the side of the road and have been lining up shots on the party with their slingshots and shortbows.
31	A band of travelling bards called Heart of a Dragon on a middle of their ‘biggest tour ever’ where they are playing in multiple cities of the world. They could be a recurring encounter on different roads.
32	A group of monks on a pilgrimage to a shrine of their order to meditate and receive training.
33	A travelling circus with a bunch of performers, one of whom is offering to perform their tricks (tarot readings or a future event cryptic reveal) at the side of the road for a couple of coin.
34	A zealot on a religious pilgrimage to a far off holy site. The pilgrim has only just started and is full of spunk and cheerful evangelism. This is the pilgrim's first pilgrimage and up until now has led a very sheltered life.
35	The wizard Leander from Leander's Luminous Laundrette and Lavender Lavatory. They have been assaulted on thier travels, both the wizard and thier apprentice were injured (the apprentices wounds poisoned and almost surely infected, gangrenous, and without the help of a cleric; probably fatal.) and thier wagon and gear stolen.
36	A band of highwaymen posing as religious ascetics on a pilgrimage to a nearby temple. They plan to rob the holy site and kill everyone inside its walls.
37	A farmer and family in tow, with three oxen, two sheep, five pigs, and seven geese following the heavily laden cart. A single rocking chair is perched precariously on top with a grandmother strapped into it.
38	A travelling troupe of down on thier luck performers with a small problem that the players can solve. In thier troupe is a budding young master storyteller who is sure to be deeply interested in the players and thier stories. Help or Impress them here, and tales of the teams exploits precede them in the next big city.
39	A dimwitted farmer who was sold a cat in a bag (and had been told it was a piglet). The farmer is despondent and has spent every penny they had in the hopes of changing thier fortune.
40	A peddler with an old horse and half broken cart who has gotten stuck in a muddy rut. The peddler is actually a spy travelling under cover and the wagon was deliberately stuck to provide an excuse to make contact. Alternatively, the goods the peddler is carrying are obviously stolen from a local power or religious group and the players may or may not know about it happening, and the peddlar is willing to do a lot of things to not be caught.
41	An incompetent adventurer that wont take no for answer and plans to head wherever the players are going. The adventurer is friendly, but seems to be trying too hard.
42	A knight travelling with a very small, or nonexistant retinue. The knight has been forced to sell his prized warhorse for some reason, or have it knackered due to severe injury. Alternatively, the knight is actually a Paladin doing religious pennance and has vowed not to ride a horse or cart for the entirety of one month and one day.
43	A pack of dirt-covered Dwarf miners approach from off the road, offering to trade very valuable gems for some ale and food ("not trail rations, real food!"). They have just struck upon a massive gem deposit and wish to celebrate. Hope you have some with you.
44	A hunter approaches, asking for your aid. He is gaunt, obviously hungry. He says he has tracked an Owlbear to a nearby cave, and if you can help him kill it, it will feed his family for a month.
45	You see a child’s corpse in the middle of the road. A young boy, no more than eight or nine. His throat has been cut. If you stop to examine the body, you quickly see a search party coming toward you from the wood. They are looking for the boy. And you should not be so close to him.
46	You notice an elf slumped against a tree, covered in blood and on the verge of death. He reveals that he is a courier, and was ambushed by bandits. He tells you that they didn't find the message he carries, it is hidden inside his boot. He asks you to deliver the message for him to a woman named Ella Corwyn in the village of Threader's Hollow, a few days ride out of your way. If read, it is a simple message from her son, Dennis, who is training in wizardry with the elves. If delivered, Ella will feed your group (hearty lamb stew with delicious homemade biscuits) and offer shelter in her barn, alongside her prize pig Josephine.
47	A bear wearing a vest and derby hat is selling expertly-crafted Masterwork musical instruments from an ox-drawn cart hitched to a tree by the side of the road. His name is Sir William Bearington III. He does not speak but can understand and scratch out misspelled replies on a chalkboard in Common. Should you attempt to steal from him, he will attack without hesitation, as a Dire Bear. A small collection of bards of various races have formed an impromptu jam session in a clearing nearby. They sound great, and if asked, they attribute the sound to the quality of the instruments. Anyone with a proficiency in a musical instrument and enough gold in their purse must succeed on a DC 10 Will save, or feel compelled to buy one. Prices are high (2x), but the craftsmanship appears to be worth it. A flamboyantly painted sign on the side of the cart in bold calligraphy reads: “Musickyl Innstrumynts of Fynest Make, Experrtly Crafftyd by Sir Wm. Bearington III, Proprytor”
48	A trio of dirty peasants is riding past on an impossibly fancy carriage. They nervously smile and wave at your group. A DC 18 spot check will notice a smear of blood on the side of the carriage.
49	You come upon a group of a dozen or so young human men. They carry spears and wear leather armor. They appear to be trying to get your attention. If attacked, they immediately flee. If spoken with, they claim to be soldiers and demand a tax. If refused, they brandish their spears and talk about the wrath of the King, but will flee at the first sign of violence. In reality, they are cowards and deserters, trying to make their way South.
50	A man begs for help. He has been “robbed by bandits. Please, kind strangers, a ride into the village that’s just a day's travel away?” At the earliest opportunity, he will attempt to steal something of value and ride away on your horse. If it seems like a good idea, he will stab you first.
51	A very elderly couple flags you down. They ask you to leave some silver as a remembrance for their son, who was killed on this very spot twenty years ago.
52	A Giant sits in the clearing, he is weeping. The sounds of his tears echo across the open space. His wife was recently killed by adventurers, and he will fly into a rage upon seeing your weapons. If you manage to calm him down, he introduces himself as Urgirr and will beg you to find justice for his wife by killing the Orc Barbarian “Karnak the Bold”, the Human Wizard “Aldo Blackhand”, the Dwarf Cleric “Tordok of the Mountain”, and the Gnome Rogue “Swindlow Duffington Dingle”.
53	You come upon an impossibly elderly dwarf, naked as the day he was born, standing in the middle of the road demanding a 10 gp toll be paid. He wields a quarterstaff and proclaims himself to be the King of the Road. Thankfully, his long white beard shields his wrinkled nethers from your view.
54	A longbowman challenges all takers to a hunting contest. A 100 gold bet. Whosoever can kill the most birds in one hour wins the purse.
55	Morty Mennecaum, a traveling gnome alchemist has set up shop in this unlikely location. His prices are a bit above average, but he loves a joke and will negotiate if someone can make him laugh. His son, Manny, a burly fighter with a Longsword and steel shield, eyes you.
56	A ghost hovers in your path. He is Gregor Jantos. He asks you to deliver a message to his wife Alya in a nearby town: “It was no accident. Kelvar cut me open to get to you. Don’t trust him.” When you find Alya, she has been married to Kelvar for nine years and they have a daughter together. They are quite the happy family. Gregor died twelve years ago, and he wasn't well-liked in town. He had a reputation for getting drunk and beating on Alya.
57	A twelve-year-old boy sits cross-legged atop a boulder that seems out of place near this stretch of road. He wears a circlet of rope around his head. If spoken to, he will open his eyes and acknowledge you and appear to pay attention, but he will not speak. He will answer yes or no questions with shakes of his head. He has taken a vow of silence and is on his way to becoming a Monk. If begged for assistance, he can show you to his monastery where you may sleep, eat, and train for up to a week.
58	A townsman (Garg) is arguing with a traveling salesman (Phineas). He claims that he paid for 50 miracle cures, but the crate the salesman gave him only contained 46. The salesman claims that the customer must have drunk four of the doses of the cure because he “has a system”. The dispute is over 8 gold pieces.
59	A traveling salesman blows past you on a cart. He is being chased by half a village who run after with axes and pitchforks. They claim he took advantage of them by selling them colored whiskey in a vial and saying it would cure Miner’s Fever. If you catch the salesman, he claims it’s honest work, selling people hope for an otherwise hopeless disease. He will give back 75% of the town’s money if you Intimidate him (DC 15). If you beat his Intimidate DC by 10 or more, he gives it all back.
60	A patrol of royal guards is approaching. Six stout men, at least somewhat injured, guarding what seems to be an iron strongbox. They are traveling quickly. They say that they can tell right away that you are trustworthy folk, and they ask you to join them in transporting their incredibly valuable cargo to the King--which is several weeks travel out of your way--promising a small reward for the effort. Should you refuse, they again stress how incredibly valuable their cargo is, and explain that they are tired and weak from their journey, and vulnerable to bandits. If the strongbox is opened (by killing the guards and picking a difficult lock), it contains a letter from another kingdom--a peace treaty.
61	A group of four small children, no more than eight or nine years old, proudly stops your group. They are adventuring heroes, and want to join your party. To kill nasty trolls, and slay horrible dragons, and stay up as late as they want.
62	A crowd of townsfolk equipped with makeshift weapons and torches is marching towards a nearby city. They proclaim that they are going to do battle with a minor local lord because his taxes are too high. If there is a fight, they will certainly be slaughtered.
63	A small group of three older women, dressed in homespun and dirty shawls. One woman has a swollen foot and walks with a limp. One has a swollen and infected lip and drools when she speaks. A third has a twisted and infected finger, rendering her unable to grasp anything. One wields a set of shears, one a sack of prepared flax fiber, and a third a distaff and spindle. They are fey in disguise with strange power, prophetic foresight, and strange ethics. Alternatively, they are witches/hags with questionable motives, but a moral code of "rewarding" those who show them respect they feel they deserve.
64	An entymologist in absurd getup with a comedically large bug net, short shorts, pith helmet, socks and sandals. They ask for assistance catching something only they can see.
65	You hear them before you see them. As you approach a bend in the road you hear two voices, each loudly complaining about the other. “You said you knew where we were going!” “I said that it was East, you’re the one who said a map was a waste of money!” A female Goliath sits on a fallen tree at the side of the road. A female Halfling is perched on her shoulders passing a wineskin to her companion.
66	A seemingly normal looking man who greets the party on the road. He will mostly address the party member with the most magic jewelry. After some awkward conversation he will quickly make an attempt to steal the jewelry and run. When the party persues him he turns into an ancient copper dragon and flies off. They wont be able to track him. Later if the party is investigating crimes in a nearby city they might catch word of an illegal magic black market. The copper dragon is the kingpin of the operation and will give the items back when confronted.
67	The sky darkens and it begins to rain heavily. You see a man coming the other way, carrying a heavy umbrella and wearing a heavy coat. It rains for as long as the man is in sight, and then immediately clears.
68	Seven dwarven miners bid you good day as they go to work in their mine.
69	A cartographer passes who is willing to sell a copy of his map of the area for 40gp. With this map the party can travel at an additional 1d4 miles per day of travel within the area of the map.
70	You find a wandering disciple of Gond (or any other similar god of crafting) who offers to repair any broken or damaged equipment.
71	A wounded young knight laying down on the side of the road. His quest to save the princess from the dragon had failed, again. He went with a few adventerurs and mercenaries but he was the only survivor left.
72	A fortune teller sits on the side of the road in a cart that she seems to operate her business out of. There's a sign on it that explains that a simple fortune is 1 silver but a more intricate fortune is 1 gold. (If asked to prove her talent, she performs a simple druidcraft cantrip showing tomorrow's weather and tells them to come back tomorrow to see her if she's correct. This may be a good place for an insight check). If any party member gets a fortune told, the DM can choose the fortune or she can foretell imminent death in their path.
73	A gnome is undeneath a curious wagon, fiddling with a mechanical apparatus and swearing up a storm. He refuses help and insists you would just get in his way.
74	Three high-elven sages can be seen bickering among themselves, arguing over the interpretations of a certain book on Arcana. The party is completely invisible to them if the sages are not addressed/greeted.
75	A man with bandages over his eyes, a boot slightly larger than its mate, and a sort of mechanical prosthetic hand being led a pseudonatural hound. When questioned about the clearly unnatural dog, he just says "I trust him. He led me back out of there".
76	A chef with a small restaurant/tavern set up on a rarely traveled roadside wondering why he never gets any customers.
77	A tattered old man sitting by the roadside will ask for change to help feed his dog. If you spend enough time with them, the dog reveals itself to be a druid and the pair attempt to rob you.
78	An elf and a dwarf on a cart pulled by a couple of oxen. Both wear expensive, gaudy clothes. The dwarf is puffing on a clay pipe and has an ornate repeating crossbow on his lap. They offer the party a chance to buy their wares and show them the collection of arms and armour in the cart; all used, some very obviously, with dented armour, nicked blades and blood stains. There are a few good pieces and at a good price. If there are any magical items, the vendors are unaware of this and sell them as standard. These characters make good money from looting battlefields, most of this haul from a recent clash between two nobles' armies. At your discretion the elf may have a wand or two up his sleeve in event of trouble.
79	A woman and six small children approach in an ox-drawn wagon. They appear dirty, tired and apprehensive, but if the party is friendly the mother will share her story: the father has run out on his family, and they could no longer afford to live in their previous home. The mother offers the party a single gold coin if they would accompany them to the next village. Rumor has it there are wolves in the area, and they are scared they won't make it to town before nightfall.
80	A traveling minstrel and his lover approach on a donkey. He offers to play you a tune for a coin. He is the worst singer you have ever heard. He takes your coin and carries on down the road.
81	A large magic stone hut. The hut is immune to all magic as well as edged weapons. Inside is the home of a helpful powerful Wizard with many magic items and potions. He has made a shop which he sells him magic for slightly lower prices that the Handbook's. He will buy any rare magic for 110% of its actual cost. He buys magic at 90% of its actual cost. Lots of people seem to come buy in the day and no one seems to be there at night. This is because he talks in his sleep. On any given day, there is a 1/3 chance that he will use d4 spells in his sleep.
82	Two famous swordsmen, having a duel. One may or may not have cheated in the past, and may or may not be planning to cheat in the future. Thier followers are attempting to either stop the fight, and seeking help or are discussing terms and seeking a neutral arbitrator.
83	A single, lonely shoe with a busted heel. The shoe is animated, and has a personality, always complaining that "My dogs are tired!". It may or may not be a wizard pulling a trick on you via enchantment.
84	A traveling artist has set up a canvas in a nearby field and is painting some wildflowers. For 5 copper pieces, he will make a charcoal drawing on paper for you or any of your party members. For 5 gold pieces, he will stop his flower painting and spend time following the party painting a portrait of one of you until he is finished. If prompted about his work, he will get excited and show you his sketchbook. It's full of various drawings and portraits of people he's passed on the road. He says he never forgets a face and will even draw someone according to details given by you for 10 copper pieces. He's surprisingly accurate even if you aren't the best at describing things.
85	A portly drunken satyr mostly preoccupied with finding out where the next party is.
86	A pompous fool of an elf who has spent over 400 years mastering the call of a species of wolf which has since gone extinct in the area. Will demonstrate the howl with almost no provocation and expects you to be impressed.
87	A portly old goliath in a red coat with white trim dragging a big bag full of presents
88	Horned devil with a box in his hands. Offers to allow you to take a look inside in exchange for your soul.
89	A grizzled paladin with a greatsword and a floating shield in a desperate fight with two invisible stalkers.
90	Firbolg sleeping, held in the trunk of his pet elephant who dutifully trundles down the road, stepping politely aside to allow for traffic.
91	Three hill giants who have been assigned to sack a nearby civilization. They're lost and want directions from the party.
92	A hermit, proudly extending his arms towards bypassers, holding a single old sock with a hole on the heel. Loudly exclaiming "Look at my sock! Isn't it wonderful?! This sock has been in my family for generations and never once been wet! It's not magical nor special, but it is, simply put, the best sock ever made!"
93	A glum-looking demon lord pulling a wheelbarrow in which is lying a very drunk, very happy dwarf loudly singing "86 bottles of beer on the wall!" If interrupted, the cleric burps loudly, frowns and then shrugs, starting again at "1 billion beetles of butt in the well" before giggling and falling asleep. At this the demon lord sits down and begins weeping.
94	An old man and his four mute sons, all dressed in rags, one carrying a large walking stick. In truth, the old man is the head of a giant mage, and his "sons" are his limbs, polymorphed into a group of humans. The old man will ask for a share of the party's rations, and his sons will eat and eat until no food is left.
95	An oddly smelling gnome with various magic items hidden under his cloak such as a small pocket watch that turns you invisible for six seconds, a hand with candles on it's fingertips that when lit paralyze every creature with 14 or more charisma in a 100ft radius, and a blank booklet that does nothing but looks extremely important to all creatures who see it.
96	Angmar Bladewalker - human knight - Brown hair and blue eyes, she proudly wears a scar across one side of her face. She is always a bit late, a bit eccentric, and has an otuyagh in the stables that she raises as a pet. Deft with a blade though. She moved out of her house because it was haunted.
97	Zane Drake - High Elf poet - He has very long, curled, brown hair shaved on the left side and brown eyes, with rough golden skin. He has a soft, typical face with a short moustache. He speaks loudly and dramatically at all times. In addition, he knows the true name of an angel.
98	Ayleth Falavaul - Half-Elf merchant - She has long, curled, dyed black hair and green eyes. She speaks quietly at all times and is deeply religious. Her homeland was destroyed by a storm.
99	Doran thunderdelver - Dwarf noble - Endlessly impatient, Doran is always shouting about something or other. He has short blond hair and a long beard, which his wife braids every morning. A old friend wants revenge on him.
100	Porath - Dragonborn wizard - Suspicious and prone to growling, he cares deeply about the local townsfolk. A man named Kavarr stole one of his spellbooks.

List Contributors: u/dndspeak, u/Metallis, u/dark_dar, u/hdcorb, u/RollinThundaga, u/MrIii, u/Norwegian_waffle, u/KouNurasaka, u/marquessam, u/Awestraya, u/pikkl_rikk, u/ColossalKnight, u/Kdjp777, u/Agent00Melon, u/trinketstone, u/lurkforhire, u/jninja119, u/honeybadger919, u/AssholeMcMiniFridge, u/sawyermorgankindle, u/horlenx, u/Lank22, u/Shrapnel_Sponge, u/MaxSizeIs, u/Quajek, u/MaxSizeIs, u/Taranis16, u/MrMonti_, u/Courtholomew, u/Jacknerik, u/HipsterButler, u/sansmiroirs, u/Flutterwander, u/commoncanvas, u/911roofer, u/bnahlik, u/IshtarJack, u/schm0, u/ThatDnder, u/MaxSizeIs, u/SquiddneyD, u/Selachian, u/Jens_Viking, u/ElZoof, u/Flinkelinks, u/VividPossession, u/Horrid_Username

[Event] Beginner's Luck

2019 All-Rookie Team Predictions

Every year, the NFL ushers in a new rookie class that's full of soon-to-be stars.

It makes the offseason an exciting time full optimism for each of the 32 teams across the nation. Right now, every pick was great. Every player will be a success. Every team is on the upswing. But, if you've been following the NFL for even one season, you know all that's bs.

But! A few teams did knock the draft out of the park. Here are some of the names you could be hearing for years to come from this class.

Offense

Quarterback: Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
Unlike the quarterback class of 2018, there isn’t an abundance of options for this spot in 2019. It’s between Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins. Kyler is as likely to start week one as Tom Brady or Drew Brees. But, Haskins will face a certain amount of friction for the starting job. Case Keenum is a nice bridge quarterback and depending on what the Skins see in camp, Keenum could be the pick for early season duties. Regardless, both will see major action in year one.

As for who’s set up for the most immediate success, it’s a coin-flip. Kyler has the edge in skilled position talent with David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and the rookie duo of Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler. Haskins’ group of Adrian Peterson, Derrius Guice, Josh Docton, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis and rookie Terry McLaurin is less admirable. However, Haskins has the enormous advantage over Murray at offensive line.

The tie-breaker? Offensive system. The Cardinals’ front office seems infinitely confident Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme will translate to the pros so I’ll jump aboard that wagon as well. Murray has the potential to be the type of quarterback we haven’t seen since Robert Griffin lll as a rookie. If he’s even a fraction of that, he’ll be the best quarterback of the bunch in his first year.

Running Back: David Montgomery (Bears)
Like the quarterback position, running back sees far less instant starters in the 2019 class than in the 2018 class. Most will be a part of a backfield committee. Josh Jacobs steps into a crowded situation in Oakland with veterans Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington and Doug Martin. He could lose receiving opportunities to Richard at the least. Miles Sanders will face an even more daunting task to assert himself over Jordan Howard, Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement in Philly. They have the busiest rotation in the league right now.

Montgomery, however, will only have to compete with Mike Davis for early running downs. Tarik Cohen is a lock for the scat back/receiver role. Montgomery will be a great compliment to Cohen as a hard-nosed runner who excels at running through defenders as much as he does eluding them. Add in Matt Nagy’s creative offense, and David Montgomery has landed in a fantastic position to make an impact immediately with solid volume to fill the stat sheet.

Flex: Jalen Hurd (49ers)
To be honest I’m not entirely sure what this slot is for. Second best running back? Offensive weapon? Scat back? My guess was scat back but I don’t see any in this class like Nyheim Hines last year or Tarik Cohen the year before.

So, the verdict is the running back turned receiver out of Baylor. Hurd could be accurately labeled an “OW” as Denard Robinson was with the Jaguars. Jacksonville ultimately found a good spot for Robinson as a fill-in running back where he recorded multiple 100-yard rushing performances. I’d trust Kyle Shannahan to get the most out of Hurd as well. Whether it’s as a towering outside threat at receiver or goal-line banger, Hurd’s best role is yet to be determined. But, he’ll have a role as a rookie in the 49ers’ creative offense.

\I’m all ears for other suggestions at the Flex spot.*

Wide Receivers: N’Keal Harry (Patriots), Mecole Hardman (Chiefs)
The Patriots haven’t taken a receiver in the first round since 1996. It’s a big deal they spent a first (albeit the last pick of the first) on a new toy for Tom Brady. It’s also clear that N’Keal was added to offset the loss of Rob Gronkowski as a tough, reliable receiving threat. Harry figures to have a role in the starting lineup, along with Julian Edelman, immediately. In 2018, New England leaned hard on first round running back Sony Michel in the playoffs. I’d expect Harry to have a similar impact in the regular season.

There was a plethora of wide receivers taken in rounds one and two of the draft, but not many who instantly have a shot as the WR1 in their offense. Mecole Hardman is one of those guys. This is assuming Tyreek Hill is shown the door in Kansas City. Hardman is a Hill clone minus the off-field distractions. Both are under six-foot. Both have elite 4.20-4.30 speed. Both are gifted returners. Seeing how Andy Reid has utilized Tyreek Hill, it’s clear Hardman has a featured role waiting for him. Any player involved in the K.C. offense will have boosted numbers which will help in gaining a spot on this team. Hardman is a big part of what the Chiefs are doing offensively going forward.

Tight End: Noah Fant (Broncos)
Rookie tight ends infamously have a hard time breaking through in their first season. If a guy gets 400 yards and a couple scores in his first year as a pro it’s a success. The bar is low. But, Evan Engram proved in 2017 that if you’re involved enough, volume can get you recognition. This is Noah Fant’s key as a rookie.

Like Engram, Fant is a fairly raw product who isn’t stout as a blocker and has issues with drops. Engram caught an abysmal 55% of his targets as a rookie. But, he was targeted so dang much that he managed to post a solid season stat line of 722 yards and six touchdowns. Noah Fant could see a similar output as a receiving specialist.

Right now, the Broncos are looking at Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton as their top two pass catchers. The group is a work in progress. Given Joe Flacco’s affinity for tight ends, it’s safe to assume he’ll look Fant’s way often in 2019.

Offensive Tackles: Kaleb McGary (Falcons), Jonah Williams (Bengals)
There are two main factors I look at when predicting which offensive linemen will stand out as rookies: playing time and surrounding talent. The offensive line is a unit. It lives and dies with the success of others.

Four offensive tackles were drafted in the first round of the 2019 draft. They are Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard, Tytus Howard and Kaleb McGary. Dillard finds himself in a situation where he’s behind two established veterans and only figures to see playing time with injury to left tackle Jason Peters. Tytus Howard will be thrust into a starting spot immediately but is a work-in-progress on an offensive line that offers almost no support. He could have a tumultuous rookie season.

Beyond the first round, it’s new Jaguar Jawaan Taylor and new Bill Cody Ford. Ford faces the same obstacle as Howard. Taylor however, is a strong candidate for a tackle spot on this team but finds himself on a transitioning offense with few playmakers. He could struggle to stand out.

That leaves right tackle Kaleb McGary on a talented Falcons line blocking for a stacked offensive lineup. He’s a good bet. The other position could go to 11th overall pick Jonah Williams who is the most polished and versatile of the linemen in this class. The Bengals need help at both tackle spots and could use an upgrade at guard. Williams played left and right tackle in college so either could be his position as a pro. Cincinnati’s offense could look a lot different in 2019, and that’s a good thing. Williams will be a big piece in 2019.

Offensive Guards: Chris Lindstrom (Falcons), Dalton Risner (Broncos)
Chris Lindstrom was the only guard drafted in the first round this year. He joins a retooled Atlanta line that’s due to see massive improvements. He should find early success blocking for Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman.

After Lindstrom, there’s really only one other guard who’s set to see significant snaps right off the bat. That’s Dalton Risner of the Denver Broncos. Risner will play right guard in the NFL for what figures to be a run heavy offense. That suits him perfectly.

Dark horses for these guard spots could be third rounders Michael Deiter of the Dolphins and Nate Davis of the Titans. Both were added to guard needy teams and could see early action if all goes well in camp. Connor McGovern is another name who could throw his hat in the ring if he’s able to beat out incumbent Connor Williams.

Center: Erik McCoy (Saints)
Going with the theme of instant starter + good offense, Erik McCoy is a pretty obvious pick for center. Sure, Garrett Bradbury was the first center taken, but I’ll take the Saints line and offense over the Vikings 10 times out of 10.

McCoy will have good company with Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat, Larry Warford and Ryan Ramczyk on a contender for best offensive line in 2019. McCoy will take over for Max Unger who abruptly retired this offseason.

Defense

Edge Rushers: Nick Bosa (49ers), Montez Sweat (Washington)
There’s no shortage of options at the edge rusher position in the 2019 class. Any of Nick Bosa, Clelin Ferrell, Josh Allen, Rashan Gary, Brian Burns, Montez Sweat or L.J. Collier could realistically make the All-Rookie Team. Not to mention underdogs Jachai Polite, Chase Winovich or Jaylon Ferguson. It’s a crowded group.

My first pick here is Nick Bosa on the absolutely stacked (on paper) 49ers defensive line. Bosa and Dee Ford have the potential to be the most statistically impressive pass rush duo of 2019. Bosa is an NFL-ready rusher who has good bloodlines with his brother Joey Bosa finding massive success with the Chargers.

Montez Sweat is my second choice. He could end up being an upgrade over the departed Preston Smith. Sweat will slide right into the outside linebacker spot opposite Ryan Kerrigan on a burgeoning Washington front seven. His speed and bend off the edge will be a dangerous compliment to the stifling Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne up front.

Interior Linemen: Ed Oliver (Bills), Jerry Tillery (Chargers)
The Bills are sneakily building a really dangerous defense over in Buffalo. It wouldn’t be a surprise if a casual fan hasn’t heard of any of their stars before. Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Lorenzo Alexander, Tremaine Edmunds, Jerry Hughes and soon Ed Oliver make up a top-5 defensive roster. Oliver can replace the inside pass rush they lost with Kyle Williams. Oliver’s pass-rush prowess should earn him early headlines despite being in the small Buffalo market.

Among Quinnen Williams, Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence, I’ll take Jerry Tillery as my second interior lineman on defense. It’s a four-way race that’s about as even as it gets. Each guy plays the position a little differently, but all are forces on the interior. Jerry Tillery is the name that stands out to me though because of DeForest Buckner's impact in San Francisco. Tillery could be a Buckner type of force. His flashes are blinding and with enough talent around him, can become an explosive pass rusher. The Bolts have the support with Bosa and Ingram to make Tillery an instant success.

Linebackers: Devin Bush (Steelers), Devin White (Buccaneers), Ben Banogu (Colts)
Both Devin’s landed in the top-10 of the draft and instantly become rocks in the middle of their respective defense. Both walk into the building as starters at inside linebacker. It would be a shock if either failed to make this team at the end of the season.

The third linebacker spot on this team though is far more up for debate. The front-runners are Jahlani Tavai, Ben Banogu and Germaine Pratt. All three are in play for starting duties if they can beat out their competition this summer. Tavai will be up against Christian Jones and Miles Killebrew in Detroit. Banogu will be up against Matthew Adams and Zaire Franklin in Indianapolis. Pratt will be up against Nick Vigil and Jordan Evans.

Considering the Colts’ very recent success with Darius Leonard at linebacker, I’m siding with them being right with Banogu. Banogu can offer value in the pass rush and as a penetrater in the run game.

Cornerbacks: Rock Ya-Sin (Colts), Byron Murphy (Cardinals)
The 2019 draft had seven cornerbacks drafted in the second round. It was a deep class without a clear top prospect. I might as well be throwing a dart at a board including about eight different corners to decide who will be on this team. But, I’m going to pretend I know something everyone else doesn’t. Here goes.

Rock Ya-Sin for his name alone is a favorite for this team. He’s exactly the type of player you want him to be with a name like that too. Ya-Sin is an ultra-competitive and aggressive brand of corner. Odds are in his favor to start early for the Colts secondary that lacks a true #1, shut-down defensive back. Indianapolis’ defense is really coming together and Ya-Sin could be the guy to pull the secondary out of the depths.

Byron Murphy is my second pick. Patrick Peterson hasn’t had a viable running mate since Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in 2010. Murphy has a spot waiting for him in the Arizona secondary whether it’s at corner opposite Peterson or at nickel. His phenomenal instincts should be enough to offset lack of elite athleticism. With a solid pass-rush and secondary in place, Murphy is as set up for immediate success as a corner can be in the NFL.

Safeties: Nasir Adderely (Chargers), Marquise Blair (Seahawks)
As much of a crap-shoot the cornerback position is on this team, the safety position is even more so. It’s a weak class this year with no clear leader but plenty of depth. There are five safeties who are looking at starting roles right away. Darnell Savage, Johnathan Abram, Marquise Blair, Nasir Adderley and Juan Thornhill will all be significant contributors as rookies.

You could nominate any five of these players and I wouldn’t argue with you. But, to me, two guys stand out: Adderely and Blair.

Nasir Adderely joins an uber talented Chargers defense that struck gold at the safety position in 2018 with All-Pro Derwin James. Playing alongside James is a big reason for this pick. Adderley also has ideal size and makes his living as a splash play-maker with his ball skills and excellent athletic ability. He also possesses highly coveted versatility so it shouldn’t be a problem finding him a spot to fill in any given situation.

For the second slot I look to a team that’s had a penchant for developing defensive backs: the Seattle Seahawks. Investing a mid-second round pick in Blair tells me Pete Carroll has plans for Blair. He fits a Kam Chancellor-type mentality. Blair is more than willing to come down-hill and lay the wood but his reckless abandon could lead to penalties. His cover skills are advanced enough to be an every-down safety. Highlight plays shouldn’t be hard to come by from Marquise Blair as a rookie.

Defensive Back: Joejuan Williams (Patriots)
This pick is due to my trust in Bill Belicheck. He turned undrafted corner J.C. Jackson into a major contributor as a rookie. Second-year Patriot Stephon Gilmore also made massive strides and was All-Pro in 2018. Taking Williams with their second pick either means they see a deficiency at corner on their roster or they really like the Vanderbilt product. I’ll take the latter. He’ll be a player to watch on New England’s defense this fall.

Special Teams

Kicker: Matt Gay (Buccaneers)
First kicker drafted this year. Probably a happy guy.

Punter: Mitch Wishnowsky (49ers)
First punter drafted this year. Great name for the “say it 10 times fast” game.

Returner: Mecole Hardman (Chiefs)
If Hardman becomes a fantasy asset this season, expect some nice team names to follow. “Mecole horny”, “I’m Hardman” and so on. But, Hardman’s impact on the Chiefs’ special teams won’t be a joke. If Hill does indeed get banished to the shadow realm, Kansas City will be losing a major piece on special teams. Hardman is the best returner prospect in this draft class and should step in ASAP as their designated one-man wrecking machine on kickoffs.

My Picks For Opening Saturday At Ky Downs Five Day Meet.

I will focus on Ky Downs this Saturday as they have grass racing only and the fields are stacked with solid runners. They only have a five day meet again this year, including the next two Saturdays and I always try to play their races.
1st Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs & Up--- 1 1/2 Mile Turf--- Purse $120,000.
My bet to WP will be 2)Somebody's Beau(8-1). Julie Burke has the mount and she won 2 races last year at this meet and is much better on grass, even at other tracks. Somebody's Beau' broodmare sire, Bernstein, is a son of Storm Cat but his dam La Affirmed is a daughter of TC winner Affirmed. Affirmed foals, especially his daughters, were major runners and producers of grass runners. Somebody's Beau just missed in a 1 1/8 mile grass race two starts back but he has been trying to run down horses while tracking slow paces but running out of room. But Saturday, he will get a distance that will only help with his late run.
1) Dixieland Rags(30-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His only start on grass was a race marred by inexperienced young horses, so he like most others in that race, have little chance to show his true ability. His sire, Union Rags, was a 2 YO Champion and won the Belmont S in his final start while banking $1.8M in winnings. And while he never raced on grass, his dam family was bred to excel on grass. His broodmare sire, Smart Strike, is sire of Curlin and Looking At Lucky but his 2nd dam, No Class, is the best producing daughter of Nodouble, a top grass sire.
6)High Beam(12-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. In his last, Borel rushed him to keep up with the early speed and he had nothing left when it was time to go. If his jockey allows him to settle early and then kick for home, he will be the one most likely to win this race. His sire, Temple City, dam is a 1/2 sister to Malibu Moon but he will get his distance abilities from his broodmare sire, Parade Ground, winner of the G3 Lawrence Realization at 1 1/2 miles on grass and 2nd in the G2 Bowling Green H at 1 3/8 miles on grass where he was charging hard but ran out of room chasing a horse that got a big jump on him.
Race 2: Starter Allowance $10000---- 3 YOs & Up Fillies & Mares---- Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $10,000 Or Less Since Sept 1, 2016--- 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf--- Purse $42,000.
My choice to WP will be 10)Blame The Dream(12-1). At first glance it looks like he may not care for grass as he has finished 2nd once in 9 tries on grass. But they were all races when he was still a maiden and some were actually decent efforts but he was left with too much ground to make up except his one effort at KD where he was sent 1 5/16 mile and ran even throughout. C.J. McMahon is a son of top QH rider Charles McMahon and after struggling his first year has became known as a jockey who will give his mount ever chance to win.
8)Appealing Way(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She won her last start and should find this spot slightly easier. Her jockey, Joseph Rocco Jr is a son of another jockey, Joseph Rocco Sr, who was a top rider in Maryland for years. Jr has also won on this grass course in a $600,000 race, so he should be familiar with the timing it takes to win here.
12)Racey Reecey(6-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. She will be among the pace setters and should win the pace battle if she breaks more alertly than her last start, when she got a sluggish start. When her trainer wins, he usually does it with front running types and she fits that angle. May have to fit her in my exacta box in place of the 8)Appealing Way.
I will not use the expected favorite 11)Awesome Gal(3-1) in this spot. She has too many starts and stop in her recent form without any works since her last. A red flag for me, personally and it is usually a trainer's hint she may not be feeling well.
Race 3: Allowance O/C $62,500--- 3 YOs & Up--- Which Have Not Won 2 Races Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won 3 Races Or Claiming Price $62,500--- 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf--- Purse $145,000.
6)Spikes Shirl(15-1) will be my choice to WP. His sire, Speightstown, won the G1 BC Sprint in his last start, but I like her dam family more for their grass abilities. His dam, Shirl's Soul, is a daughter of G1 Turf Miler Winner Perfect Soul, but her dam, Lady Shirl, is dam of G1 Winning Turfers Shakespeare(Woodbine Mile) and Perfect Shirl(BC Ladies Turf)and G2 grass winner Lady Shakespeare. Lady Shirl's sire line is Noholme II, the sire of Nodouble. This will be Spikes Shirl's first lifetime start on grass and well, she might actually like it, you think? A 15-1 shot I will take.
My choice for 2nd will be 10)One Mean Man(8-1). While he has not won since he was 3 YO, he has faced by far the best competition in here. He ran 4th in the G1 Secretariat S to Beach Patrol while he was in shape. While 6 1/2 furlongs looks a little short for him, the fact that the course has a slight upgrade(Hill) will only compliment his running style.
4)Sharm El Shiek(20-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He, like my top choice, was bred to run on grass. His trainer, Murat Sancal, has spent the last several years shipping all over the country and cherry picking grass races with long odds horses that are bred for grass.
I will throw in the 11) Field Of Courage(8-1)and box a small super because the potential is there for a huge payday.
Race 4: Allowance--- 3 YOs & Up Fillies And Mares--- Which Have Not Won A race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf--- Purse $140,000.
My choice to WP is 5)Vanilla Cat(15-1). She is making her fourth start of the year(here I go again harping on the 4th start). She had a little mini break of 3 months before her last start but that was because the owner decided to take back training duties from Asmussen and used that time getting her fit. And she ran a much improved race since he deemed her ready. With a good work and a maintenance breeze since that race to keep her fit, she should be ready to fire her best shot. Her sire, Tale Of The Cat is sire of multiple G1 SW Gio Ponti and while her dam did not win in three starts, her 2nd dam, Golden Treat, won 3 races in her career; a maiden eace, the G1 Santa Anita Oaks, and the then listed(now G2)San Clemente H on grass. She also was G1 placed on dirt.
11)Cash Out(7-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She has ran against the best of the 3 YOs fillies this year. I will throw her last effort out because it is obvious she did not handled Saratoga's yielding turf but has since recorded 2 decent works on their dirt training track.
I was going to go bombs away but after reconsidering, I will make 1)Blame Henny(4-1) as my choice to complete the tri box. Her sire, Blame, has the same dam family as Sadler's Wells, Nureyev, and a host of other very good grass runners. However, her broodmare sire, Hennessy, is grand sire of Scat Daddy through his son Johannesburg and of Beholder, through his son Henny Hughes. With her bloodlines, you have Danzig crossing with Storm Cat and this is the top combo in breeding today.
I will toss in the 11)Sarabi(30-1) and box a small super, again because I think the potential to score big is present. While I do not know much about her trainer, I do know Luis Saez will ride her well and she has enough upside to crash the super at least. The sire of her 2nd dam is Palace Music, who is best known as sire of Cigar.
5th Race: Allowance--- 3 YOs & Up-- Which Have Not Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- 1 Mile Turf--- Purse $140,000.
9)Belfast Cowboy(15-1) will be my choice to WP. He is a close relative of G1 winner Sistercharlie in that they have the same sire(Myboycharlie) and broodmare sire(Galileo). In his last start, he was restrained by his jockey much to his displeasure and he became ranked and did not produce his best run. Probably the main reason the trainer decided to use another jockey in Channing Hill. Myboycharlie won the biggest G1 sprint in France restricted to 3 YOs but his broodmare sire Galileo was a champion 3 YO in England and is the best siring son of Sadler's Wells. Belfast Cowboy also crosses 4x4 with Danzig and 5x5 with Marshua's Dancer, a close relative of Mr Prospector. Not a matter of if but when he will mature into a top class runner and this weekend could well be his coming out party.
1)Mr Darcy(12-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He has opened up big leads while refusing to settle in his last two starts. But it is an educated guess that Albarado came back and told the trainer the hood(blinkers) needs to come off and he will more than likely settle down and conserve his energy until the stretch run. This weekend he will race with the blinkers off, so he can see the other horses around him and hopefully calm down a little. He has 2 very nice works since he ran that suggests he is still feeling good. He too has bloodlines that will come to the forefront eventually. He has Storm Cat on top with Danzig on the dam family.
7)John Tippmann(12-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He crosses on each side of his pedigree with Storm Cat through his sons Hennessy and Tale Of The Cat. He has made three starts on grass and this is supposed to be the easiest field on grass he has ran against. But it has came up extremely tough for a conditioned allowance race. While he would not be a total shock, I like my top 2 picks better.
5)Passport To Chaos(4-1) has an outside shot to crash my tri box but he will have to beat a class of horses he has not shown he could yet. Therefore while I am aware of him, I will have to take a stance against.
6th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YO Fillies--- 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf---- Purse $130,000.
2)Arch Avenue(15-1) will be my choice to WP. There is not a thing wrong with his first effort except he broke a little sluggish after recording some nice works. Since then, he has added two more nice works and a maintenance breeze to show he is fit. He has Danzig on both sides of his pedigree but adds Hail To Reason on both sides also, giving him an extra dose of speed abilities and with the slight stretch out, I expect him to use it much more effective this start.
12)Julia's Ready(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She has slow works but that is when her trainer is at his best. He has trained for more than 50 years and still maintains a 17% winning percentage. He rarely tips anyone when he has a runner but there are clues in her bloodlines that suggests she will be live. Her sire, More Than Ready, produces foals that are at their best sprinting, especially on grass. Her broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway, a top speed sire. However her dam, Julia Tuttle, won one minor stakes at Monmouth but that was at 1 1/8 mile on grass in wire to wire fashion setting a fast pace and picking up the pace even more when asked. Julia's Ready's 2nd dam, Candy Cane, is a winning full sister to Candy Ride. If this horse does not have speed bred into her, then there is no one in this race that does.
4)Ginny B(12-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. her trainer has decided to add blinkers to get her to focus more on leaving the gate. Even though she is bred for front running speed, she has been a little tardy in both of her starts. Her sire is also More Than Ready but her broodmare sire, Yonaguska, beat City Zip as they traded wins in their first few starts before City Zip matured into a top class runner. However, Ginny B has enough early speed potential bred into her that she could harm the other speed enough to set up my top pick even more.
And since I have enough good odds on the horses I like, I will add 7)Super Patriotic and box a small super. Then I will key the 2)Arch Avenue on top and run the other three underneath on a larger super bet. I always try to do this at least once every week I bet and that will always give me an opportunity to make a memory I will never forget. And it has worked on several occasions but not on most.
7th Race: The One Dreamer S--- 3 YOs & Up Fillies & Mares---- Which Have Not Won A Sweepstakes In 2018--- 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf--- Purse $250,000.
7)Con Te Partiro(12-1) will be my choice to WP. She is shortening up to a distance her bloodlines will appreciate more than any other in here. She showed some ability in her early starts but her last five races has been further than she wants to run, even though she gave a valiant effort in most of them. While her sire, Scat Daddy, won a G1 at 1 1/8 miles, her broodmare sire, Street Cry, spent his career struggling at any distance past a mile. Sure, Street Cry won the Dubai World Cup at 1 1/4 miles, but it was against a field of G2 turf horses. Even his sire was a champion miler in Europe that never won past that distance. Her trainer, Wesley Ward, has given her what looks like 2 slow breezes since she ran, but they were more a maintenance breeze to keep her fit. She has already proven she is ready, only needs the right distance.
And where would I be if I didn't like 4)I Remember Mama(12-1). She will be my choice to complete my exacta box. her sire, Ghostzapper, is a 1/2 brother to City Zip. Her dam, Joyful Chaos only stakes win came on grass but she beat the top grass filly in training at the time. Her broodmare sire, Rahy, is known mostly through what his daughters have produced but he is also a 1/2 brother to multiple G1 SW and sire Singspiel.
9)Prado's Sweet Ride(4-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. She should be able to stay close early and will appreciate having several front runners to run at. She is working a little faster than I like to see and these types ate either extremely sharp or about to throw a dull race. But since her trainer knows how to prepare them for a top effort, I am going to assume he is on top of the situation.
I will throw the 12)Last Promise Kept and box a small super, simply because I have been burned to many times for leaving a horse that crosses with Danzig on both sides out of my bets. She is also working on her third race back after a winning effort, another angle I use a lot that pays dividends.
8th Race: The Tourist Mile S----- 3 YOs & Up---- One Mile Turf---- Purse $750,000.
I definitely do not see an upset brewing in this race. I like The 8)Bound For Nowhere(3-1) to Win and will put him with the M/L favorite Mr Misunderstood(2-1) in an exacta box only. I like 5)Bandar(20-1) for third but that is less than likely due to a low percentage trainer and a jockey that is still eligible for apprentice weight but is not allow it for any stakes race rides.
9th Race: Ky Downs Juvenile S---- 2 YOs ---- 1 Mile Turf---- Purse $400,000.
I like the 6)Tracksmith(12-1) to WP. His trainer Joe Sharp and jockey Adam Beschizza has won quite a few stakes while teaming up this year. His sire, Street Sense, won the 2007 Ky Derby and he has bloodlines that suggest he would be as good or better on grass though he was never tried on that surface. Tracksmith's dam, Hot Water, is an unraced daughter of Medaglia D'Oro. However, her granddam, Xtra Heat, was a G1 winning Sprinter who ran 2nd against the colts in the G1 BC Sprint.
5)Coral Legacy(8-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His sire, Bodemeister, ran 2nd in the Ky Derby & Preakness S but his bloodlines indicated he would be even better on grass. His broodmare sire, Smart Strike, was a G1 winner at 1 1/16 miles but produced two sons who each won the Preakness S, Curlin & Looking At Lucky. Coral Legacy's 3rd dam, South Sea Dancer, is a full sister to Storm Bird. Todd Pletcher trains and he has given first call to Corey Lanerie.
10)Mr Zydeco(30-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His sire, Risque Remarque, is a sire not many have ever heard of because he was used as a show sire for a few years. He was unraced and you have to go back to his great great grandsire to find Halo, a multiple G1 SW on grass. His dam, Alligator Style was an unraced daughter on A.P. Indy. Her dam, Sensibly Chic was a G2 winning sprinter on dirt but was definitely better bred for grass. If Mr Zydeco runs back to his only grass start, he will be a late factor against these and he has the breeding to pull off a major upset. The jockey can ride a little bit but would be much more known if he got better mounts.
10th Race: Ky Downs Juvenile Fillies S--- 2 YO Fillies---- 1 Mile Turf----- Purse $400,000.
10)Noble Love(15-1)will be my choice to WP. Her sire, Noble Mission, is a multiple G1 winning full brother to Frankel who won most of the distance races that Frankel has not tried in. Her dam, Pyramid Love ran 2nd in the G3 Doubledogdare S on Keeneland's AWT. Her broodmare sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the 2000 Ky Derby and ran 2nd in the Preakness S. However, as a sire, his foals are much better equipped for grass. Noble Love has the special cross of Danzig on each side of her pedigree and that alone gets her a ticket to win. Her trainer, William Calhoun, is known for winning when his horses can get the lead. And it looks like there is no one else in here that can match her early. She should be long gone before the others realizes what happen.
1)War Ballad(15-1)rated just off the pace in her last two but is the only one that looks like she may give my top pick any problem at all. But she also does not look fast enough so I will use her in my exacta box. Her sire, Declaration Of War, is a G1 SW miler son of War Front and this sire line, also from Danzig sire line, are poise to take over turf sprinting sire duties from Scat Daddy. While her broodmare sire is A.P. Indy, the rest of her dam family should excel at one mile on grass.
7)Miss Technically(7-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box. She should be able to stalk the pace and put in a good run in the stretch. Her sire, Gio Ponti, os a multiple G1 winning son of Tale Of The Cat. She also has major distance grass influences Nijinsky II and the champion filly Heavenly Prize.
I will add the 5)My Jilly(15-1) and box a small super. She was my original choice to win until I notice everyone at least a full second slower than my now top pick. One or two fifths can easily be explained away but a full second is much harder, especially when all the others looks pretty even.
These are my picks for opening day at Ky Downs this weekend. I type this post out to help others get an idea of what it takes to give each and every one a realistic chance of making money. But I set all my bets up to where I only need a couple of races to run the way I envision to make serious money. Sometimes it works, others times it does not. Being prepare and using your mind is always the key. Good Luck!!!

Why Your Team Sucked: What did Drew Magary actually get right about 2015?

Let's not pretend Drew Magary is some profanity-ridden Nostradamus wunderkind who can predict how an NFL season is going to go. Just for fun, though, I decided to go back through all of his columns and see what he happened to get right or wrong.
Tennessee Titans
Record: 2-14 (2014), 3-13 (2015)
Spot On: On the off-chance that Marcus Mariota is actually good (and with Oregon’s legacy of highly drafted QBs like Akili Smith and Joey Harrington, how could he fail?), the Titans will still ruin him. They’ll plug him into a shitty, unimaginable offense; put him behind an abominable offensive line that is somehow WORSE than the one that allowed 50 sacks last season; and then blame him when everything goes to shit. Thankfully, Mariota will be too damned nice to get angry about any of this. YOUR PLEASANT DEMEANOR IS A SIGN OF COWARDICE, YOU GRASS SKIRT-WEARING PUSS. (Mariota got sacked 38 times in 2015, and had two separate knee injuries.)
Not Quite: And as long as he’s equipped with a knife, Justin Hunter will find a way to get open. (Hunter only played 9 games before an ankle injury sent him to IR for the remainder of the season.)
Also, LOL: Ken Whisenhunt. EVERYONE BEATS THE WHIZ. When are people gonna stop giving this man quarterbacks to ruin? Jake Locker RETIRED this offseason. Jake Locker is 19 years old. He had to retire because Whiz coaches all his quarterbacks to plant your face in the defender’s chest prior to releasing the ball. Classic throwing motion. Good thing they didn’t draft another slender, speedy quarterback who might be similarly frail! Oh wait…
Cleveland Browns
Record: 7-9 (2014), 3-13 (2015)
Spot On: I hope you have a firm grip on your scrotum, because this QB competition will BLOW YOUR FUCKING NUTS OFF. It is ON. One QB is an alcoholic who will one day rent himself out for fraternity dwarf-tossing parties. The other is a washout QB from a 2-14 team. MY NIPPLES ARE SHOOTING HOT MAGMA FROM THE THOUGHT OF IT. It’s so fucking on, you can’t even comprehend the on-ness of it all. (The QB position was essentially a turnstile thanks to Johnny Manziel's shitstack behavior and Josh McCown's injuries and general blandness.)
Not Quite: Oh, have I told you about Dwayne Bowe yet? Yes, somehow this all gets even more depressing, because Dwayne Bowe is your new #1 wideout. (Bowe ended up being a virtual non-factor on his team. He had a total of 5 receptions for 53 yards the entire season.)
Also, LOL: Not only did I purchase this jersey for my son, I made sure to buy it one size too large so he could wear it for 2 seasons.--Russ, a fan who included a picture of his toddler in a Manziel jersey.
San Diego Chargers
Record: 9-7 (2014), 4-12 (2015)
Spot On: On the field, this is the same underachieving Chargers team you’ve known and barely-paid-attention-to for a while now. Rivers will toss some picks. Keenan Allen will steal your fantasy money (for real, fuck that guy). New running back Melvin Gordon will go way too high in your auction draft. They will be a perfectly average, replacement-level NFL team for the duration of the season and for the rest of your life. (Rivers threw 13 interceptions, which is not as bad as the previous year's 18, but still, meh. Allen missed the second half of the season with a kidney injury. Melvin averaged 3.5 YPC.)
Not Quite: Join us in 2027, when the Chargers are STILL threatening to move while going 8-8 from the Qualcomm parking lot. (Well...)
Also, LOL: [Rick Lyle] is the most strength coach-looking strength coach of all strength coaches. Rick Lyle will fucking burn a hole through your quads just with his eyes. I’m staring at his photo right now and I can literally hear a voice screaming at me YOU GOT TWO MORE IN YOU! YOU GOT TWO FUCKING MORE IN YOU! I’m not ready for a man of his intensity. Rick Lyle will fuck you up. Approach him at bar and he will grind a Schnapps bottle into your eye sockets.
Dallas Cowboys
Record: 12-4 (2014), 4-12 (2015)
Spot On: The team also handed Dez Bryant $45 million in guaranteed money this offseason, just in time for him to go directly into the tank. (When Dez wasn't injured, he tallied a total of 31 receptions for 401 yards, and also just three touchdowns, a significant fall from the year before.)
Not Quite: And who did the Cowboys bring in to fill the massive hole left by Spray Tan’s departure? Which longtime Jerry Jones wet dream did the Cowboys procure after years and years of open yearning? No, it wasn’t Adrian Peterson. Nope, you got Darren McFadden instead. If you have an old Lisfranc ligament that YOU would like to donate to Darren McFadden, please call the Cowboys front office at your earliest convenience. (DMC actually had a good season, finishing with 1,417 total scrimmage yards. He didn't get hurt either.)
Also, LOL: Also we employ several legitimate criminals. Every Cowboys offseason is like some sick test of our morality where I have to decide if I’m a terrible person if I don’t denounce them and buy a Jaguars jersey as penance.--Jesse, a fan
Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 3-13 (2014), 5-11 (2015)
Spot On: ...rookie TJ Yeldon can’t be any worse than Toby Gerhart was last season. I say that knowing full well that Alabama running backs are the Oregon quarterbacks of running backs. (Yeldon didn't break 1,000 rushing yards, but at least he more than doubled the output that Gerhart gave last season.)
Not Quite: Speaking of the future, the Jaguars will have the dubious honor of playing the first live streaming game this season. Yes, the NFL has deemed their game against Buffalo (in London) so to be so utterly disposable as to be given away for free on the internet, outside the purview of TV broadcast rights. On Yahoo, no less. They aren’t even putting that shit on a GOOD website. I hear that Lycos is making a strong play for all local Jaguars preseason broadcasts. (Actually, general consensus was that the Yahoo stream was pretty darn good. Too bad their video platform is dead already.)
Also, LOL: That is the current state of the Jaguars right now. Bereft of a talented roster or sentient fans, they exist mainly to serve as the NFL’s lab rat. We’ll put them in London! We’ll put them on the Internet! We’ll make them the first helmet-less team! We’ll inject them with liquid uranium! We’ll replace all their players with cyborg apes! If there is a shitty idea to be had, rest assured that Roger Goodell will run it through the Jacksonville test kitchen first to keep all the other, useful franchises safe from harm. The Jaguars are NOT FDA-approved.
Baltimore Ravens
Record: 10-6 (2014), 5-11 (2015)
Spot On: By the way, the Ravens lost Torrey Smith this offseason. They drafted Breshad Perriman but he’s already suffered a knee injury. So this offense will be largely dependent on Flacco throwing to a 36-year-old wideout and giving a 50-pound running back 300 touches. Oh, but this is a Super Bowl contender. You keep telling yourself that. (Perriman, of course, did not play a single snap in the regular season. Flacco, Forsett, and Smith were okay-to-decent, but then they all ended up on IR. This team was most definitely not a Super Bowl contender.)
Not Quite: These are the Ravens, so you can always count on them to vie for the AFC North title and then become a potentially damaging playoff team, usually because Suggs has taken out enough opposing knees to clear the way for them. Even with Haloti Ngata traded away and the skill positions depleted, this remains the most frustratingly competent evil team in sports. (5-11. Chances of making the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl, were slim for this team this year.)
Also, LOL: Did I miss anything? Oh, right! It was the Ravens who tipped the Colts off to the Patriots deflating footballs. So you have them to thank for Ballghazi. And Ray Rice. And probably the disappearance of MH370. They are the headwaters of all bad things. They are involved in so many awful incidents that you can’t even remember half of the awful things they did. I didn’t even get to Terrell Suggs, man. Their depth at Shitbag is unmatched. Jesus. Join us this season when the Ravens kill your grandparents. Fuck this team forever.
San Francisco 49ers
Record: 8-8 (2014), 5-11 (2015)
Spot On: Two years ago, the Niners had the best linebacking corps of the decade. Two of those linebackers are gone. One of the remaining two is still recovering from a horrific knee injury. A promising young replacement LB retired due to fire migraines. Stalwart DT Justin Smith? Also gone. Harbaugh? Gone. Michael Crabtree? Gone. Frank Gore? Gone. Half the o-line? Gone. Andy Lee? Gone. Ray McDonald? Uh… well, he had some issues. Everyone retired or got arrested. The only thing left of this team is the shadow it cast on the wall just before the nuclear bomb went off. (Yeah...other than a brief ride on the Blaine Train, it wasn't a pretty season.)
Not Quite: Tomsula will make for a fantastic undertaker. In time, he will grow a proper hunchback. He’s certainly not qualified to be the head coach of a professional football team, but that’s no longer an issue for the York family. So long as Tomsula turns off the sprinklers and is happy to be paid in canned beans, the job is his eternally. (He got canned. Surprise?)
Also, LOL: Jed York looks like Drew Magary had sex with an uglier Drew Magary. --Meaty, a fan
Miami Dolphins
Record: 8-8 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: Ten years from now, Tannehill will still be playing for the Dolphins and everyone will still be like, “Is he good? He may not be good.” It’s hard to tell when you’re getting sacked 46 times a year. (Wow, so close...the Dolphins allowed their QB to get sacked 45 times in 2015.)
Not Quite: HE’S ALIVE! JOSH FREEMAN IS ALIVE! Imagine being a defender and seeing Josh Freeman come into the game. It’s like seeing the boss leave work early. I’d be elated. (Josh Freeman did start a game...for the Colts.)
Also, LOL: DID YOU HEAR TOM BRADY MIGHT BE SUSPENDED?!!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 2-14 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: Lovie Smith. There are certain head coaches who make for disastrous retreads, and Lovie Smith is one of them. We all think of Rich Kotite as a walking punchline, but Rich Kotite went 36-28 as head coach of the Eagles before he burned the Jets to the ground. It took that second job for his true shittiness to be laid bare. That’s where Lovie Smith is right now. He’s right in the Mooch Zone. Five months from now, when he staggers out of Tampa with five total wins to his name, people will ask, “How the fuck did THAT guy take a team to a Super Bowl?” And there will be no good answer. (On a late Wednesday night after the season was over, Lovie indeed got shitcanned.)
Not Quite: Also, Doug Martin sucks now. He doesn’t even like being called the Muscle Hamster anymore, so he is both shitty AND humorless. He makes me sad. Maybe Jameis Winston will trip over him and make me feel better. (Martin had a darn good season with over 1,500+ total scrimmage yards. And the Muscle Hamster will never die!)
Also, LOL: Also, a Bengals fan punched one of your fans right into the street. A Bengals fan! You know how weak and slow Bengals fans are? That’s like getting punched out by a dying Labrador.
New York Giants
Record: 6-10 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: Every year we do these previews, and every year the Giants are the hardest entry because they are never, ever, ever different. (It was hard for me to find a lot of accurate predictions in this particular column. But, Drew had the right idea. This team ended up with the same record as last year.)
Not Quite: Given Eli’s pattern of winning a Super Bowl every four years, the Giants are actually on track to win their fifth Super Bowl this season. (Nah. His brother, on the other hand...)
Also, LOL: FUN FACT: The Giants have won more than 12 games once in the last 30 years. They are the most accomplished mediocre franchise in sports history.
Chicago Bears
Record: 5-11 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: This defense. My God…this defense. Here’s a fun fact from last season: against the Bears, Tom Brady went 30-for-35 with five touchdown passes. Four of those incompletions were drops. The Bears defense is air. You can go right through it, as a ghost would a wall. They are not there. (Chicago's defense was not very good in 2015. They were ranked 20th by Pro Football Reference.)
Not Quite: Jared Allen is older than the classic rock he listens to, and will now be forced to play out of position in a 3-4 defense. (Allen did not end up having to play in a 4-3 setting for long, getting traded to the 3-4-friendly Carolina Panthers early in the season.)
Also, LOL: A few years back my buddy went to Bears Training Camp. Later that day, he walked by Jay Cutler while wearing CUTLER’S JERSEY, said ‘Go Bears’ and pumped his fist. Jay gave him a dirty look, then looked away and kept walking.--Justin, a fan
New Orleans Saints
Record: 7-9 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: The defense is still awful and hasn’t been the same since the NFL banned their hit pool. I don’t care that Browner and Anthony Spencer are here now. When Rob Ryan is your D-coordinator, the goal of your “defense” is to luck into two turnovers per game so that you can barely hang on to win 35-30. (Pro Football Reference ranked the Saints D dead last. The Saints indeed tried to hang on for dear life despite their porous defense; just to name a couple examples, they barely won a high-scoring game against the Giants, but lost another slugfest against the Panthers.)
Not Quite: It’s the NFC South. Brees could throw 40 picks and this team would still cruise to a division title at 6-10. I’d bet money on that outcome. (Lol, I hope he didn't, Panthers kicked the shit out of everybody in their division and conference.)
Also, LOL: BRAND MANAGER: Hey, Drew! Endorse this! (throws pile of money at him)
BREES: Sure! What is it?
BRAND MANAGER: Just shut up and read the copy!
BREES: I’ve been chewing Hitler-brand chewing gum my whole life, and I won’t stop now! I’M A HITLER GUY ALL THE WAY!
Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 10-6 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: Keep in mind that Murray set team records for Dallas last season behind an absolutely brilliant offensive line. He will not have the same luxury in Philadelphia. This line was fucking horrid last season, and it’s even worse now that Kelly has run guard Evan Mathis out of town. One day, Kelly will pull a Joshy McDaniels and cut everyone, and then operate the team using only AVATARS, who are controlled through cognitive telekinesis. Until that day, the only holes Murray will see on the field this season are the ones in Bradford’s knee joint. (Hoo boy. Murray rushed for 1,845 yards with an average of 4.7 yards per carry in 2014. This most recent year, he was well under a thousand yards rushing with an average 3.6 YPC. To call it a drop-off would be an understatement.)
Not Quite: No one has any fucking idea what [Kelly's] plan is. When the most obvious explanation for your personnel moves is that you’re vaguely racist, that’s not good (Fun fact: The Eagles had the whitest roster in football even before this offseason). Otherwise, Kelly has made moves like a drunken fantasy owner who needs to be reminded by concerned friends that he drafted five RBs in a row and forgot to take a wideout. As it stands now, Riley Cooper might be the best wideout on this team. RILEY FUCKING COOPER. (Jordan Matthews was bettemore utilized than Riley Cooper in the passing game (despite having bricks for hands). Cooper didn't even accrue more yardage than Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, or Darren Sproles.)
Also, LOL: I once saw a girl so shit-faced drunk that she was being carried down the steps of the upper deck completely incapacitated. And the game hadn’t even started yet.--Andy, a fan
Oakland Raiders
Record: 3-13 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: Amari Cooper, shown here wishing he had been drafted by Jacksonville, was arguably the most talented and hardest-working player available in the whole draft. Put him together with Carr and a healthy Latavius Murray and this almost resembles a functional NFL offense. (Drew tries to damn the Raiders with faint praise here, but: Cooper put up a decent 1,070 receiving yards and averaged 14.9 yards per reception; Carr's performance was overall improved in his sophomore year; and Murray had over 1,000 rushing yards.)
Not Quite: Finally, a place where Michael Crabtree’s malcontent nature can fully flourish. FUN FACT: Mr. Sorry Receiver has gone over 1,000 yards in his career exactly once. (True. Still, Crabtree racked up 922 receiving yards, the second-highest in his career. As second fiddle to Cooper, he didn't really slouch.)
Also, LOL: Given that the Raiders also contemplated hiring Eric Mangini and Pat Shurmur, I guess Del Rio is a halfway tolerable choice. But really, after getting the Heisman from Jim Harbaugh (imagine a coach looking at your organization and being like, “I’d better go to Michigan. They’re WAY more functional”), they limited their options like they were dining at a Jersey Turnpike rest stop. “Well, I can eat Burger King, or I can scavenge for chicken bones in the shitter trash can.” This franchise has been eating shit for so long that Del Rio’s career record looks like the feat of a God at this point. OMG HE ALMOST WENT .500 WHAT IS THAT LIKE?
St. Louis Rams
Record: 6-10 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: Kroenke’s quest to beat the Chargers and Raiders to L.A. has resulted in not one, but TWO cities being openly exploited via every possible bureaucratic loophole. The Rams convinced Inglewood to NOT allow a public vote on the Rams stadium project. In turn, the St. Louis Stadium authority sued to prevent residents from voting on a counter plan to keep the team in town and assist Kroenke in fucking over the public for decades to come. That riverfront stadium would cost a whopping $985 million, of which only a quarter would be fronted by Kroenke personally.
This is St. Louis, mind you. Their budget is already stretched thin because of their historic need to overspend on tanks for killing black people. And so this story ends a few months from now with either a) The Rams finally leaving, or b) A cash-poor town getting buried in debt for centuries to come to help make a shitbag billionaire even wealthier. (Sigh.)
Not Quite: TODD GURLEY! Holy shit, look at how fast he is! What a beast! I can’t wait for him to *LIGAMENT AUDIBLY TEARS* OH MY GOD HIS KNEE DIED I AM SO SAD THIS IS ALL SO SENSELESS. (Gurley didn't tear a ligament, but he did tear up the field, gaining 1,106 rushing yards at an average of 4.8 YPC, plus he got 10 touchdowns.)
Also, LOL: Fuck Stan Kroenke with a jackhammer dipped in ebola.--Gary, a fan
Detroit Lions
Record: 11-5 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: This offseason, the Lions were faced with two choices: A) Overpay Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley and watch them sabotage the team by going directly into the tank, or B) Let them walk and watch the second-best defense in football fall apart as a result. The Lions chose option B. This is life in Detroit. You are presented with a number of options, all of which leave you fucked. (Pro Football Reference ranked the Lions defense in the bottom 10 of the league. 5.6 yards allowed per offensive play.)
Not Quite: LOOK AT ME! I’M SO TOUGH LISTENING TO KID ROCK AND DRIVING A BROKEN CHEVY AND SHOPPING AT THE LOCAL KROGER! Meanwhile, I know damn well that the only reason people stay in Michigan is for the 10-cent recycling deposit. (And the water, don't forget the water!...Sorry. Drew didn't make too many broad predictions in this column so it was hard to find anything that was blatantly incorrect.)
Also, LOL: I ASKED MY OLD MAN FOR A FINAL WORD ON THE LIONS. HE SAID “WHY DO YOU BUG ME WITH THIS SHIT EVERY YEAR?” I WAS LIKE HEY IM A LIONS FAN. HE TOLD ME TO GET OUT WHILE I CAN. I CANT--ZODIAC MOTHERFUCKER, a fan, capping off an all-caps rant.
Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6-10 (2014), 8-8 (2015)
Spot On: I assume Quinn knows how to, like, do defensive stuff. Which is good, since this was the worst defense in football last year. The team drafted heavily on that side of the ball so that they can stand firm when Ryan gets carted off the field on a dog sled. (Quinn got the team to a couple extra wins this past season, and his team's defense was ranked in the top 15 by Pro Football Reference.)
Not Quite: Also: the Falcons have no depth at running back and Roddy White and Julio Jones are rarely healthy at the same time. (Yeah, the RB depth wasn't quite there, but you can't deny that Devonta Freeman was awesome for this team for most of the season: 1,600+ total scrimmage yards with 14 total TDs. Roddy White was irrelevant, but Julio Jones had his best season ever, with 1,871 receiving yards.)
Also, LOL: No one will ever take the Falcons seriously. Ever. It’s cute when they make an NFC title game or a Super Bowl, but come on. No one is scared of the Falcons. No other team is like OH GOD IT’S THE FALCONS RUN FOR YOUR LIVES! They got docked a draft pick this offseason for piping in fake crowd noise, and that fake crowd noise didn’t even help because the team was 3-5 at home anyway. They are a perennially harmless team that will never achieve league-wide relevance. They’re like the Hawks, but football.
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 11-5 (2014), 8-8 (2015)
Spot On: ...this team is stocked with garbage linemen and veteran retreads looking to glom a Super Bowl ring off of Luck, as if Luck is 39 years old and has only one season left to play. The offensive line is crap. The front seven is crap. Rookie wideout Phillip Dorsett is already hurt. What kind of bullshit roster is this to build around Luck? (Frank Gore had an okay 967 rushing yards in 2015. Dorsett was nothing to write home about, getting a season total of 225 receiving yards. T.Y. Hilton was the most consistent bright spot of this team.)
Not Quite: Deep inside Irsay’s soul, past the 80 shades of ruddy and the heady alchemy of six unauthorized prescription medications working their magic in his bloodstream, he probably wishes he had kept Bruce Arians. He probably wishes he had kicked Pagano to the curb and installed Arians as head coach in what would have been the most callous, bloodless move in sports history. Instead, he kept Pagano and let Arians walk, and will now send Pagano packing this winter, when such a move will be more socially acceptable, after this pissy team bows meekly out of the playoffs by committing eight turnovers against New England. (As much as Pagano's tenure looked like it was coming to an end after this season, he signed a four-year extension with Colts last month.)
Also, LOL: Andrew Luck is a hairy mutant forest goblin who spends his free time baking people’s grandchildren into pies and eating those pies.
Buffalo Bills
Record: 9-7 (2014), 8-8 (2015)
Spot On: Offensively, McCoy is bound to score more often at his private orgies. Harvin hasn’t been a dangerous receiving threat in over four years. (Drew mainly spent this article making fun of what drunken idiots the Bills and their fans are, so this was the closest I could find to a solid, accurate prediction. Though McCoy missed four games, he likely would have finished with the same okay-to-decent stats he had the year before. Harvin played only five games and might quit football completely.)
Not Quite: Bills fans are already talking themselves into Tyrod Taylor. That’s where we are, and it’s only August. Jesus. (Tyrod Taylor actually ended up being quite a good QB for the Bills. His overall season passer rating was 99.4.)
Also, LOL: They’re all here: hazers, punchers, convicts, rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers AND METHODISTS!!!!!!! This year, you won’t be able to tell the difference between the Bills fans punching each other in the parking lot and the Bills themselves. It’s gonna be fantastic. If the Bills can’t win, they may as well act like they’re in the second-lamest production ever of Suicide Squad.
New York Jets
Record: 4-12 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: Also, Stevan Ridley is here to tear his ACL. Has he torn it yet? He probably tore it just now. Oh, but he’s a former Patriot! THE JETS TRIUMPH ONCE AGAIN. (Ridley spent half the season just recovering from his knee injury from the year before, and when he saw the field, he stunk. The running game was mainly led by Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell.)
Not Quite: Geno Smith is special in that he can fuck up ANY play: basic handoffs, dump passes, quick counts … I don’t even trust him when the DEFENSE is on the field. When the Jets are on defense, I fully expect Geno to distract them by accidentally tripping over the stadium circuit breaker, thus allowing a 98-yard touchdown. (Not to worry. This season was arguably completely changed when Geno got punched in the mouth and broke his jaw. Fitzmagic, baby!)
Also, LOL: You morons think eggplant parm is a health food.
Washington Redskins
Record: 4-12 (2014), 9-7 (2015)
Spot On: [GM Scot McCloughlan signed] defensive lineman Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton away from the Broncos, because great things happen when the Skins sign any oversized, free-agent defensive linemen. (Okay this was the only statement I could find that made some sort of accurate prediction about the season. Almost every other word Drew typed was just pure mockery of the Skins. Knighton's season was about the same as the one before: fine, nothing really amazing.)
Not Quite: Anyway, you know the deal by now: RG3 was brilliant in his first year, exclusively due to his freakish athletic ability. He has since lost that ability after suffering a torn ACL, a torn LCL, a dislocated ankle, a shattered pituitary gland, a ruptured torso, a broken liver, a torn bladder, a hatchet gun wound, and a full-body tumor. But his daddy still thinks he’s Steve Young, and so the Skins are gonna spend another year fucking the chicken, forcing Gruden to work with a ninth-tier QB that he openly despises. (RG3 didn't play a single snap in the 2015 season. CAP'N KIRK, BABY!)
Also, LOL: Imagine if Donald Trump’s Twitter feed were a football team. That’s the Skins. Three days in Ashburn and you automatically become ignorant, self-important, arrogant, trolling, entitled, and breathtakingly STUPID. So, so fucking stupid. This is the dumbest organization in America of ANY kind, be it a team, or a company, or a political action committee, or a non-profit organization. Line ‘em all up and the Skins will out-moron them at every turn. The mere act of wearing a Skins jersey makes you look like a slobbering idiot. Seriously, you’re all embarrassing yourselves. You may as well be wearing parachute pants and a neon tank top.
Houston Texans
Record: 9-7 (2014), 9-7 (2015)
Spot On: ...Texans won themselves the Brian Hoyer Sweepstakes and are now the proud owners of a failed Browns QB who had a TD:INT ratio of 1:8 in his final four starts. Christ. Hoyer will be competing with pituitary disorder victim Ryan Mallett for the starting job. Looking forward to the day Houston trades for Jimmy Garoppolo and Matt Cassel so that all four failed Tom Brady backups can be housed under a single roof. ONE OF THEM MUST HAVE GOTTEN SOME BRADY ON HIM COME ON GUYS. (Oh, what a QB competition it was. Sheesh. BoB kept switching back and forth between Mallett and Hoyer before Mallett's broken alarm clock got him cut from the team. T.J. Yates got in on some of the action too!)
Not Quite: Also: Jadeveon Clowney is just never gonna play. He’s the defensive equivalent of Sam Bradford. (He played! Not amazingly, but he played 13 games.)
Also, LOL: When our supremely fucked-up football culture looks at itself in the mirror, Watt is what it sees: a big humorless white dolt who presents himself as his own private branch of the U.S. military, who supposedly eats, sleeps, and breathes FOOTBAW and goes off into the forest every offseason to train for the sport like a real life version of the first hour of Batman Begins. Listening to hot takers praise Watt makes me want to blow up the sun…
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 7-9 (2014), 11-5 (2015)
Spot On: FUCK YOU WE’RE WINNING THE DIVISION (Thus it was written. Thus it shall be.)
Not Quite: These receivers are shitty and Kyle Rudolph is the most perpetually overrated tight end in the sport. (Yeah, the overall passing game wasn't really a strong part of the Vikings offense this week, but Rudolph did okay--at the very least, he played all 16 games! Also, Stefon Diggs, amirite?)
Also, LOL: After Peterson was formally disciplined, he threw a shit fit, threatened to hold out, and spent months trying to get traded to Dallas so that Jerry Jones could grope him like a stewardess. Now he’s back, and do you know what the worst part is? I couldn’t be more delighted. I am fucking pumped. All that pouting and child abuse? Forgotten the second he breaks one for 30 yards. I already forgot that Peterson used charity funds last year to host orgies. I’m a garbage person. I deserve to have the rug pulled out from me yet again. I bet Week 2 will roll by and Harrison Smith will get charged for bombing a church or something.
Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 10-5-1 (2014), 12-4 (2015)
Spot On: The Bengals have lost in the first round of the playoffs for four straight years by a combined score of 103-43. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1990. Can’t we just BAN them from the playoffs at this point? I’ve had enough. We need to re-seed the playoffs so that the Bungles can never get in. If they qualify for the Wild Card round, they should immediately be replaced by the team with the next best record. If that had happened a year ago, the Ravens would have been the 5-seed and the Texans would have been the 6-seed. We could have had J.J. Watt in there. FUCK, MAN. We only get 11 of these playoff games a year. I want them to MEAN something. Marvin Lewis just scours his asshole with them. It’s a systemic problem. (God dammit, you guys.)
Not Quite: What has always sucked: Gio Bernard! GIO BERNARD, YOU OWE ME FUCKING MONEY. Jeremy Hill ran for 154 yards subbing for Bernard, and I was like, “Oh, that’s okay. Gio will get his job back!” AND HE DID NOT. He probably fucking died, for all I know. God damn you, Gio Bernard. I hate your face. (Bernard actually had more total yards from scrimmage in 2015 than Hill did.)
Also, LOL: This city’s three biggest exports are race wars, inedible chili, and Ickey Woods. Every white person in the metropolitan area is named Mack. The Florence Mall has a water tower that says FLORENCE Y’ALL because Cincy is spiritually part of the Deep South and is therefore the worst. The Bengals’ most famous player is Boomer Esiason, who is a flaming asshole. I hate the Bengals.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 11-5 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: This receiving corps is unreal, which means that Big Ben will post a six-TD game the moment you bench him in fantasy. Also, DeAngelo Williams is here to sub for Le’Veon Bell whenever Bell gets hurt and/or openly smokes a blunt while sticking his head out of a moon roof. (My god, Antonio Brown's stats, not to mention his acrobatic antics, are just unreal. Having Bryant and Wheaton along with him gave this team some amazing depth at receivers. Bell unfortunately got put on IR after his return from suspension, but Williams was definitely no slouch in his absence.)
Not Quite: Your coach: Mike Tomlin, who looks like an angry frog. (He's more of an angry Omar Epps.)
Also, LOL: This is 90% of the fanbase. This is most of us--Justin, a fan
Seattle Seahawks
Record: 12-4 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: Oooooh, look! It’s Jimmy Graham! I bet you fans are just dying to see Graham catch jump-balls in a fully armed and operational Seattle offense. Can’t you envision a season in which this man catches 20 touchdown passes? Can you just SEE it, right in your mind? Good, because that’s as close to reality as you’re going to get, because Jimmy Graham will hurt his foot in Week 4 and Wilson will spend the rest of the season running for his life because Seattle dealt away its best interior offensive lineman. (Jimmy Graham didn't exactly set the world on fire in Seattle. His production as a red-zone machine continued downward from his high-water mark in 2013. He also ended up getting put on IR, though it wasn't until Week 11.)
Not Quite: On the other side of the ball, you no longer have Byron Maxwell manning the corner opposite Richard Sherman. Half the defensive backfield had their arms mangled last season. But there is good news! You drafted rookie defensive end and certified woman-puncher Frank Clark! Oh goody! The Seahawks drafted Clark, feigned ignorance about his woman-punching habits, and have somehow gotten away with it relatively unnoticed because NFL reporters treat Seattle like some kind of distant military outpost located across a sea filled with dragons. (For better or worse, Richard Sherman, Frank Clark, and the rest of the Seahawks defense thrived and finished the season as one of the top squads of 2015.)
Also, LOL: Listen: it is Deadspin editorial policy to support Marshawn Lynch in all his petty feuds with the media because people ALWAYS take sides against the media because the media is fucking terrible. This is why Donald Trump is winning in the polls. I get that and agree with it. But that doesn’t mean I have to actually like Marshawn Lynch, because I don’t. He is in the mold of Chad Johnson and Dwight Howard and a million other “funny” athletes who are not funny at all. Also, the whole Skittles thing is stupid. Eat a steak, you fucking child.
Green Bay Packers
Record: 12-4 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: Jordy Nelson’s done for the year already! HOW MARVELOUS. And Randall Cobb tweaked his shoulder! By the end of this season, Rodgers will be forcing passes to waiver bait and you’ll be like, “Jesus Christ, who is Flarney Bonewood and why does he have 5 TD catches for Green Bay?” Nothing sadder than watching a franchise QB desperate try to find a go-to wideout only to fail miserably. (Nelson was sorely missed in 2015. While Rodgers pulled off some amazing throws, a lot of those throws were missed, bobbled, or straight up dropped by his receivers. His completion percentage dropped from 65.6 to 60.7.)
Not Quite: The good news is that, since Mike McCarthy is your coach, the offense will completely ignore Eddie Lacy and have Rodgers pass the ball 50 times a game in a desperate attempt to establish a rapport with Jared Abbrederis. Watch Packer fan freak out when the new white guy scores his first TD. OMG HE’S SUCH A GRINDER PASS THE BRATWURST SHAKE. (Arguably, Lacy was worth ignoring this year; his running was just not there. Abbrederis was targeted 16 times for 9 receptions and 111 yards.)
Also, LOL: This is the part where I disclose that I am a Vikings fan, which means that, since my team sucks, 99 percent of my joy as a sports fan is derived from seeing the better, fatter, holier-than-thou team from next door fuck up. So CRY. CRY YOU LOSER PACKER LOSERS BECAUSE YOU LOST
CONTINUED IN THE COMMENTS BELOW!

A history of the origin of sports betting

Western States 100 on Foot: The Forgotten First Finishers

Every ultra runner knows the story of Gordy Ainsleigh running the Western States 100 Mile Trail Ride after his horse pulled up lame before the 1974 race, thereby launching an entire sport. But Gordy wasn't the first person to complete the entire Western States trail on foot.
Two years earlier, seven members of the US 1st Infantry Division covered the full distance in under 48 hours. This is their story, as told by Davy Crockett and Phil Lowry.
Original post with photographs can be found here: http://www.crockettclan.org/blog/?p=4645

Introduction: Three soldiers on the Trail

Sergeant Ken Kruzel looked at Specialist Greg Belgarde. Belgarde, an Alaskan Native American, resolutely stared back, but at that moment his face was gushing blood from a spontaneous and prolific nosebleed. Nearly fifty miles into the no-mans-land of the 100-mile distance, Kruzel, Belgarde, and Sergeant Dave Lenau were conserving the precious water in their plastic Army-issue quart canteens. The soldiers, all from Fort Riley, Kansas, were sucking on stones and thinking of being anywhere but this long, dusty Sierra Nevada trail. They saw defeat dripping onto the ground with every crimson drop.
“Hold back your head!” barked Kruzel, willing the blood to stop. Belgarde did his best to stanch the flow. Blood dripped onto his green fatigues and black leather boots.
“Just give me a bit,” protested Belgarde. “I need to sit and get this under control.”
Kruzel pondered. They still had more than 50 miles to go. Time was not a luxury they had, not if they were going to do what no one had ever done before: cover the entire course of the Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride (the equestrian Tevis Cup) from Squaw Valley to Auburn, California – on foot – in less than 48 hours. Even though this was twice the time it took a horse, they could not afford wasted minutes.
Kruzel knew not to leave a buddy behind; everyone in the Army knew that. But the instructions from Major General Edward Flanagan, their Fort Riley commander, had been clear: walking as a group was desired, but the unit’s pride depended on each of them making an individual effort. That was why they were here, after all—to show that the American soldier could cover 100 miles of difficult terrain in less than 48 hours. He weighed his options. Belgarde eyed Kruzel intensely.
“OK, Lenau and I will push on. Do what you can.” Kruzel sighed. His instinct was to stay together. But he also knew that more than half of the original 20 soldiers had either quit or were on the verge of doing so. He also knew that Belgarde was determined.
“Roger that. I can fix it,” responded Belgarde.
A few miles later, as darkness set in, Kruzel and Lenau saw a light approaching from the rear.
“Who is that?” murmured Lenau, wondering if his eyes were playing tricks on him. Kruzel squinted, holding up his angle-head flashlight. A figure approached, the chest of his green fatigues covered in blood, his white teeth flashing a grin. It was Belgarde.
“That,” quipped a smiling Kruzel, “is one tough critter.”
Now reunited, the three moved through the night, eventually linking up with the other remaining soldiers. All pressed forward, continuing through the next day, and then—another night. They would change their white military socks, which they carried in their pockets or hung from their pistol belts. They developed few blisters. They wore olive drab green military fatigues and wore military issue leather boots. They did not wear packs to carry any extra supplies, and they carried no food. They used the Western States Trail Ride checkpoints to refill their water and wolf down food.
Finally, on July 30, 1972, the six soldiers crossed the Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride finish line in 44 hours and 54 minutes. Two hours later, a sympathetic horseman guided another limping but resolute straggler across the line.
The soldiers accomplished what no one had done before—they covered the entire Western States course on foot. In doing so, they shattered a paradigm of human performance. Major General Flanagan likely had no idea that the spark of his idea would ignite a prairie fire. He had a vision of what the American soldier could do. The men who carried that vision into action inspired others to continue pushing the borders of possibility. Eventually others followed, creating a new 100-mile trail sport in the process. But these Fort Riley soldiers were the first to cover the Western States 100 course on foot.
This is their story.

Western States Beginnings

The Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride was founded in 1955 by Wendell Robie, of Auburn, California. A charismatic man, he wanted to prove on a bet that he could ride his horse from Lake Tahoe to Auburn, California, on a historic trail used by gold miners during the 1800s. He had researched the trail and concluded it would be a significant endurance test for both rider and horse. Robie and four others left Tahoe City early on August 7, 1955, carrying a symbolic mail sack to be delivered to Auburn. The horses moved at a trot over the rugged terrain, averaging 7-12 miles per hour. Along the way, the horses were checked by veterinarians at specified points. One horse (and rider) was withdrawn. The four other riders continued and successfully reached Auburn, about 100 miles away, in 19 hours riding time.
Inspired by this feat, the annual Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride was soon established, which also became known as The Tevis Cup. A perpetual trophy was awarded to the rider who finished first with their horse. But the horse had to be ruled fit at the finish. A sterling silver belt buckle was awarded to those riders who reached the finish at the Auburn Fairgrounds within 24 hours.
By the 1970s, the Western States Trail Ride was known as the premier annual riding event in the country, the toughest in the world. It became widely known, even by some in the military. It became so popular that entries were capped at 250 riders.
In 1971, Gordy Ainsleigh, an important figure in Western States history, was a large muscular rider. He entered the Ride that year with his horse Rebel. Ainsleigh, weighing nearly 200 pounds, was disadvantaged by his weight. To help his horse maintain speed, Ainsleigh would use a common practice to either run ahead of his horse or behind it, holding its tail. He would do this for many miles. In the 1971 Ride, Ainsleigh finished mid-pack, 48th out of 74 finishers, with a riding time of 19:37, about five hours after the winner.
No one had ever attempted to cover this famous Ride’s course on foot in one go. Who would be the first?

The Infantry Endurance Challenge

Army unit patches vary in size, each of them telling a particular story. Some are busy, some are small, but the patch for the First Infantry Division (1ID) is just what its nickname suggests: a Big Red One. By 1972 the division had amassed a stunning combat history, with its most recent bloodying in Vietnam. By that time, many Americans viewed both Korea and Vietnam as draws at best, or lost wars at worst. Consequently, the esteem and training of the American soldier were being examined and questioned by both the Army and the America it protected.
The First Infantry Division had learned a lot in WWII, but in 1946, the Army promptly dumped all of its lessons and let the infantry stagnate, excited by other shiny things like nuclear bombs. Then the infantry got whacked on the head in North Korea in 1950. The old lessons needed to come back.
New infantry doctrine after Korea focused on individuals, acting together, as resolute, resilient and resourceful fighting machines. It was no wonder, then, that a guy like Major General Edward M. Flanagan, Jr. would hatch an idea to turn 20 ordinary infantry grunts into an “adventure team” to attempt something that no one thought humanly possible. An adventure team, climbing over the Sierra for 100 miles in military-issue leather boots and fatigues could be viewed as “fun” for recruiting purposes.
Surprisingly, Flanagan’s scheme came together, a classic effective use of the military’s “see the world” bait and switch. Word went out around Fort Riley that there would be tryouts for a new adventure team. Physical fitness was the main selection criterion. Rank was no discriminator. Fifty men volunteered and eventually 20 men were selected to train together as a group. They were assigned to the Sixth Battalion of the 67th Air Defense Artillery Regiment,1ID.
One would think that preparing to march the rugged Western States Ride course would inspire a rigorous training regimen. Not so. There was some group physical training that included 5-mile runs up and down the Kansas “hills” and a few longer hikes. But for the most part each volunteer prepared himself as best he could. In 1972 there was nothing in any handbook regarding how to tackle marching 100 miles. What they were going to do had never been done before. These soldiers were going to prove that a human could cover 100 mountain miles in one go, simply by doing it.
Flanagan believed he could use the Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride to set a standard for the elite infantryman. The legendary General Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson’s Virginia infantry was called “foot cavalry,” covering more than 30 miles a day with stunning wins to show for it. Later, U.S. Military Indian fighters were astonished at the distance-running skills of Apache, Hopi and Navajo adversaries. Flanagan knew about the fame of the Western States Ride, set his standard by it, and wanted to co-locate his “adventure team” event with the Ride to test his theory of what infantry could do.
Early in 1972, Flanagan contacted Western States Ride Director, Wendell Robie, about the idea of having his team of soldiers march the entire 100 miles of the famous course. Robie and the rest of his Ride staff were enthusiastic about idea. Robie said he would make a trophy for the first finisher of Western States 100 on foot. In February, news went out about the attempt in the Auburn Journal which stated, “we’re sure the troopers will make it to the finish line, or at least to Michigan Bluff.”
Now, these soldiers were stationed in Kansas. Those familiar with the Western States course can tell you it is not anything like Kansas. Most of the soldiers had never even seen Western mountains, much less been acclimatized to altitude. They had never trained to hike downhill for thousands of feet, an experience one soldier after the fact characterized, correctly, as far harder than climbing, destroying his quads and shin muscles. Karl Meltzer, the winningest 100-mile trail runner in history, once famously quipped that “100 miles is not that far,” a true statement. However, it can feel very far if it’s never been done and you haven’t really trained for it.
Trained or not, the soldiers boarded their bus to California in late July, blowing a fair amount of coin and drinking hard on their last stop in Reno, Nevada, before arriving at Squaw Valley. When the 20 men dismounted their bus and gazed on the peaks of the Sierra, they knew they were “not in Kansas anymore.” “We did not expect the terrain to be so difficult,” remembers Kruzel.

The 1972 Western States 100-Mile March

The soldiers arrived a few days before the event, scheduled for Saturday, July 29, 1972. Robie had previously advised the soldiers to start on Friday, to get a one-day head start on the riders, so they could finish with the riders and horses on Sunday. He was concerned that none of the soldiers had experience on the trail and would likely get lost. Jim Larimer, a very fit long-distance runner and rider, was asked to guide the soldiers with his horse the entire way. Larimer quickly accepted the assignment. He met with the soldiers and helped them plan and prepare. The Reno Gazette-Journal got wind of the event and ran an article announcing the surprising attempt to cover the Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride course on foot.
Specialist Joe Hindley, a talented photographer and artist was also stationed at Fort Riley, where he had been painting murals for General Flanagan. He was assigned to travel with the company to photograph the historic event. Robie provided a vehicle and driver that would take him to each checkpoint to take pictures of the men as they came through. Servicemen from a local Army post also came to the event to serve as the groups’ “crew.” At each check point, they would provide food for the soldiers that consisted mostly of Meals Ready to Eat (MREs).
On Friday morning, the soldiers were ready to leave Squaw Valley. Like any group of soldiers anywhere, the group took on a “Let’s kick this thing’s ass” attitude. Kruzel, however, looked at the peaks with silent foreboding. “This is gonna hurt,” he thought to himself. He caught the glances of Lenau and Belgarde. Their eyes told the same story. “Good,” he thought, “At least someone here has a lick of sense.”
Many of the riders had already arrived and were preparing their horses for inspection. Curious, a number of them watched the soldiers start. The soldiers, guided by Larimer and his horse, set off to a round of big cheers. Immediately they faced a 2,500-foot climb to 8,750-foot Emigrant Pass. Enthusiastic chatter was quickly replaced by labored breathing as they strained to climb in the thin air. Soon the team strung out into different groups, including the trio of Kruzel, Lenau and Belgarde.
Emigrant Pass extinguished any remaining cockiness among them. Doubts arose as they tried to catch their breath in the dry, thin air. Their one-quart canteens were already getting low, even though they were supposed to sustain the men until the first checkpoint, 20 miles forward. Stragglers began to hold up the team. Sergeant Alan Pinciaro, who had just returned from Vietnam, teamed up with two “West Pointers.” This threesome would march together all day and into the night. One of Pinciaro’s companions complained early and wanted to quit after just one mile.
1st Lt. Larry Hall knew that General Flanagan had hoped that the team would stay intact as much as practicable, but that individual effort was to be encouraged and recognized. In the plan drawn up earlier at Fort Riley, Flanagan had decided to compromise, keeping the whole group together for the first 50 miles and then releasing them all to their individual pace. But now, after that grueling initial climb, Hall consulted with their guide Larimer, and it was decided to split up into three groups. The first group would include those who were the “hardiest,” who could make better time. Kruzel’s trio as likely in this first group. They continued on as the heat starting to become stifling.
The soldiers continued on through the day upon the high ridges and down into the hot valleys. During the afternoon as Pinciaro and the West Pointers looked down into a beautiful valley, they were astonished to see a bear down below hunting around looking for food. That made them realize that great caution would be needed because “unfriendlies” could be encountered along the way. Pinciaro carried three canteens of water with him, but the West Pointers only carried one each. Both soon became empty. Pinciaro bailed them out by sharing, but before they arrived at the next checkpoint all their canteens were dry as a bone. The West Pointers continued to complain and talked constantly about quitting. Pinciaro became concerned about the very white lips on one of his companions, covered with salt.
Water was a serious issue. Western States Ride veterans had told the soldiers that water would be abundant along the trail, but the summer had been unusually dry. Most of the streambeds were empty. The soldiers’ first instinct was to conserve and not drink to thirst. Sucking on pebbles was popular. Combined with logistical difficulties of getting water and food to the checkpoints, the 20+ mile stretches between aid stations made the situation desperate. One soldier’s account related that 1st Lt. Hall diverted to a stream with several soldiers to get water, then cut back to the main trail. Hall and two others flagged down a logging truck with a handful of canteens to get them to a water source. By all accounts, the water situation was a constant struggle until evening, when the heat abated and the supply problem was solved.
Back at Squaw Valley, the riders spent the day preparing for the Ride and getting their horses inspected. Of the 250 horses present, 169 horses passed inspection. Gordy Ainsleigh was back again this year with his horse Rebel. Also competing was a 17-year-old Hal Hall, seeking his first Western States Ride finish. That evening, at the riders’ meeting, Ride officials announced that the soldiers were on their way to Auburn with a day’s head start. The rest of the evening was spent socializing, dancing, drinking, comparing notes, and speculating if any of the soldiers would really make it 100 miles to the finish in Auburn—a feat all knew no one had attempted before.
While the riders enjoyed a night of revelry, the first of the soldiers arrived at the Robinson Flat inspection station (mile 34) before dusk.
During the evening as Pinciaro and the two West Pointers neared Robinson Flat, they stopped to lay down in a stream to cool themselves off. It was a wonderful cool rest. As they enjoyed the break from the labored march, they heard an alarming loud noise up the stream. With memories of the bear they had seen earlier in the day, all three sprang up with amazing quickness. Pinciaro recalled that he “had never seen men run so fast.” They ran several hundred yards to get away from there fast, becoming runners – not just marchers. Once they reached Robinson Flat, the West Pointers called it quits, but Pinciaro was still in the game.
A total of nine dropped out there, “some suffering severe altitude fatigue sickness, some too dehydrated to go on.” Many had run out of water. At least a couple men had to be taken to the hospital. Larimer used his horse to take one dropping soldier the rest of the way to the checkpoint. Eleven, plus Larimer continued into the evening.
It was soon after this point that Belgarde had his epic nosebleed, and by this time the Kruzel trio had separated from the main group. It is also here that, true to many ultramarathons today, drama entered.
Kruzel (recalling 45 years later) was adamant that his group never stopped to sleep, and that Belgarde caught back up to them before the halfway point. He also claimed that from this point his trio was separate from the main body of remaining soldiers for a time, probably from before Last Chance to Michigan Bluff. Other accounts claim that all the remaining soldiers made it to Last Chance at about mile 40. A number of the soldiers rested there, ate, slept, and then continued on after two hours. One observer stated, “Half the battle was mental attitude. They hypnotized themselves and kept going.”
What happened to the groups between Last Chance (mile 40) and Michigan Bluff (mile 60) is unclear. Kruzel’s account is that the rest of the body, apart from his trio, took a shortcut. This accounts for how the main body was able to get two hours of sleep, whereas the Kruzel trio did not. On the other hand, the main body had the benefit of a guide, Larimer. It might be that the Kruzel trio were the first ultrarunners to get “bonus miles” during a 100-miler, having taken a longer route off the course. Kruzel’s grumbled bragging rights at being a “finisher with benefits” predicted what has since played out thousands of times at countless finish lines around the world from those who either got off course or swore that it was “at least” 102 miles.
Pinciaro, pushing on in the night was frequently separated from all other soldiers now that the West Pointers had given up. At times he would catch up with another soldier, but he continued at his own pace. For him, the trail was very easy to follow and he never got lost. He never was in the group with Larimer and his horse.

The Riders Catch Up

Back in Squaw Valley, early Saturday morning the riders drew numbers to determine their starting groups. Young Hal Hall drew group six. At 5 a.m. they were away, staggered by two-minute starts. Hall started out riding fast on his Arabian horse named El Karbaj. He arrived at Robinson Flat (mile 34) in four hours, 25 minutes, in second place, with a group of seven riders. Ainsleigh, with 200 more pounds (horse, rider, saddle, and tack) was going much slower, two hours behind.
The afternoon became very hot, reaching nearly 100 degrees. Hall, eventually in the lead, made the difficult steep climb from El Dorado Creek to the inspection station at Michigan Bluff (about mile 60) during the hottest portion of the day. He was the first of many riders to greet the soldiers on the trail.
The group of worn-out soldiers had arrived at Michigan Bluff right before him around 2:40 p.m. Rider Hall recalled, “They looked a bit whipped. Their faces were blush-red, they were sweaty, and generally looked tired. They were under a shady tree, most of them seated, and some laying on the ground. Some were shirtless as they filled canteens, and wetted bandanas for their heads.” Hal Hall’s good friend and the soldier’s guide, Jim Larimer, was there and looked like the “best of the bunch.” At this point Larimer left his horse Smoke behind and continued without his horse for the rest of the way. After Hall had his horse checked out, and waiting the mandatory hour, Hall continued on and finished the 100-mile ride later that evening, at 9:31 p.m., in 2nd place, with a ride time of 12:51.
The soldiers continued down the trail, and in the late Saturday afternoon, at about mile 70, were greeted by Rho Bailey on her Arabian horse. Bailey recalled, “They were nice, but at that point didn’t look very much like Military men.” Funny that. Military men that were doing what military men do often do not look like military men, at least not the Hollywood version of military men. At this point, all were still very much in the fight, vowing to see it through.
The remaining riders and the company of soldiers continued through the night. The soldiers used flashlights, but the riders usually did not, trusting the eyesight of their horses.
At about mile 79, Pinciaro marched alone through his second night and was the lone soldier at the 85-mile checkpoint. The local servicemen heated up a pot of water for him and he dumped a dehydrated MRE meal in the pot. But as he began to eat, his sunburn worn-out lips were burned badly by the hot and salty meal. Quickly after that, he fell into a deep sleep.
By mile 85, there were seven remaining soldiers continuing. One of them, PFC Mike Savage, lagged a few miles behind. Riders, including Gordy Ainsleigh, passed by them all night.
Soon, the soldiers were eager to see their third dawn, a ritual all too common among modern ultrarunners, but an extraordinary first for these men. The dusty chaparral soon yielded to cultivated fields and the lights of homes. The smell of the barn became overwhelming. “Just make it stop,” the mantra of every ultrarunner in the last ten miles of a 100, rang in the head of every man. The road home was not through Berlin; it was through Auburn, California.

The Finish

The rhythmic plod, plod, plod of leather boots dominated the sound of that very early Sunday morning, occasionally broken by a barking dog or occasional clip-clopping of a rider passing by with a “Keep it up!” or “Looking good!” The riders must have shaken their heads–in disbelief, sympathy, or amazement. After perhaps the longest night of their lives, the soldiers saw lights ahead, the unmistakable finish. The lead six soldiers and Larimer entered McCann Stadium at the Gold Country Fairgrounds. Earlier that night, rider Hal Hall had napped after his finish, getting up occasionally to walk his horse so it would not stiffen up. He hoped to see the soldiers’ arrival and was awake when they came into the lighted stadium. Cheers went up with congratulations all around. Their finish time was 44:54.
Still out on the trail, PFC Savage made painfully slow progress. All of the horses had passed him, and he was greeted from behind by a rider making sure everyone made it off the course safely. This “sweeper” greeted him from behind, got off his horse, and walked with the limping Savage to the finish. A “trail angel” if there ever was one. Savage finished in 46:49.
Back at the mile 85 check-point, a serviceman finally woke Pinciaro up. The sleepy, exhausted soldier was told it was all over and that he had reached 85 miles. Pinciaro was very disappointed that he came so close but did not finish. But he was relieved that his “march of torture” was over and was taken to the local Army post to clean up and rest.
With this, The Big Red One soldiers became the very first persons to cover the Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride course on foot. They were 1st Lt. Larry M. Hall, SP4 Gregory Belgarde, SGT Michael Paduano, SPC Jon Johanson, SGT David E. Lenau, SGT Kenneth Kruzel, and PFC Michael Savage. Their guide, Jim Larimer made it possible. Although he rode a portion of the way, he received a special gold star for being their faithful guide.
The soldiers’ feat invoked surprise at the finish. “All were tired and footsore, but otherwise in good shape.” One soldier said, “It’s a once in a lifetime thing! I’d never do it again unless I had to, but what a great sense of satisfaction to have finished.” To a man, none ever did anything like it again. They reveled in their accomplishment but much later looked back on it with a shudder, like many soldiers do when surveying their careers and combat deployments. “I have no regrets that I did it, but I will be damned if I ever do it again.”
After their finish, some napped, but not all. Lenau was so energized that he could not sleep. He was confused that his exhaustion would not yield to sleep. It took 45 years for him to understand, when interviewed for this article, that these feelings were totally normal for a 100-mile ultramarathon finisher.
Later that night, a banquet was held at the Home Economics Building on the Auburn Fairgrounds. The 93 rider finishers received their belt buckles and the soldiers received a special plaque, recognizing the “First Auburn Endurance March.” The plaque was presented to 1st Lt. Hall by William Penn Mott, the State Director of Parks and Recreation. The Army awarded additional commendations and medals. The soldiers also received replicas of medals awarded at the Squaw Valley Olympic Games. Wendell Robie, the founder and president of the Ride presented the first six tied finishers with the first-finisher trophy and stated that he hoped another group of soldiers would return the next year. The Fort Riley Post stated, “This was the first time the trail had been competitively traveled on foot with a time factor involved.”
The soldiers were granted a one-week pass–perhaps their sweetest reward. Lenau visited family in Missouri. Kruzel, sore from the march, had intended to go fishing in Oregon, but ended up recuperating for most of his leave. Best laid plans of mice and men . . . and ultramarathoners.

Why has this story never been told?

Telling the soldiers’ account is a rescue mission-–to recover a truly extraordinary feat from the dustbin of history. The soldiers’ exploits did not immediately spark the new sport of 100-mile trail ultramarathons. The memory of their accomplishment quickly began to fade away. But why?
It wasn’t for lack of notoriety. Details and pictures of their march appeared in the local newspaper, The Auburn Journal, and in other newspapers. Everyone associated with the 1972 Western States 100-Mile Trail Ride, both riders and staff, knew what had been accomplished. But the “First Auburn Endurance March” wasn’t really relevant to their world. They were horsemen. If you were a runner and someone bicycled Western States, would you care that much? Other cyclists would need to know about it to be inspired and key off that achievement. And in the case of “The March,” that did not happen.
So, why didn’t other runners take notice? Here are a few reasons. Their guide, Larimer, while both a runner and horseman, was modest and not given to self-promotion. He remained largely silent about the historic event and it is unclear if he also covered the entire course on foot that year. Later in life his passion was to develop trails in the wilderness that could be enjoyed by all. He passed away in 2013. Guiding “The March” was an asterisk on his riding and running resume, not a featured exploit.
Where were the other ultrarunners at that time? They were mostly running on roads and tracks far away in the Eastern United States, not seeking out the challenge of trails or mountains. They never heard a whisper about this accomplishment.
As for the soldiers, they generally are the worst self-promoters. Part of this stems from a unit, not individual, mentality that is ingrained into the American soldier. Ask any combat veteran recognized for doing something heroic and he or she will say “Anyone else would have done it.” To boot, soldiers see their lives as transitory. A squad bonded together today by common achievement will tomorrow be disbanded for new individual assignments. Members often don’t even stay in touch. To do so invites frustration, or even sorrow. Until today no one had seen the need to tell the story.
Finally, the soldiers, like Larimer, were not vested in what their accomplishment meant. There was no realization that from the March a new sport might be born, no more than Stonewall Jackson’s foot cavalry realized they were setting a new standard for infantry.

Gordy Ainsleigh runs Western States

After the 1972 March, it took two years for someone to follow in the soldiers’ pioneering footsteps. In 1973, Ainsleigh participated in the Ride again, but his horse became lame and he didn’t finish. He gave away that horse and didn’t acquire a new horse in time to enter the 1974 event. Remembering what the soldiers accomplished, and knowing Ainsleigh’s running ability, Ride staff encouraged Ainsleigh, their friend and colleague, to just “run it.” He accepted. The added wrinkle, however, was that he wanted to meet the 24-hour Western States Trail Ride cutoff and earn the belt buckle award.
Amazingly, he pulled it off, finishing in under 24 hours. Rider Hal Hall won the Tevis Cup that year and was again walking his horse in the early morning when Ainsleigh came into the stadium. Just before the finish line Ainsleigh did a somersault in celebration. The somersault tells it all. Ainsleigh was a showman, not a self-effacing soldier.
Three years later, in 1977, the first Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run was founded by Wendell Robie. Ainsleigh was credited as the first to cover the course on foot. The establishment of Western States ushered in a new sport that captured the imagination of runners all over the country: The 100-mile trail ultramarathon. Other trail 100s would also be quickly established following the lead of Western States. Today more than one hundred 100-milers are competed on trails in the United States each year by thousands of runners.

Legacies fade and grow

As the soldiers’ legacy faded, Ainsleigh’s grew. In 1978 the Auburn Journal mentioned that Ainsleigh was “the first man ever to finish the 100-mile course,” and in 1979 hailed him as “the first man to take the course on foot.” Today his famed 1974 run is probably the most legendary story in the ultrarunning sport, and he is credited as being the first, the one who started it all. He doesn’t dispute this, having claimed he invented the sport. Ken “Cowman” Shirk was the next person to complete the course in 1976 in a time of 24:30. Shirk also figures prominently on the Western States Endurance Run (WSER) history website, even though Shirk’s run exceeded 24 hours. The soldiers also exceeded 24 hours in 1972.
There is no mention of the soldiers in late 70s accounts, modern anecdotes, or official modern statements from the WSER. No public statement from Ainsleigh has recognized that others covered the course on foot before him. The WSER website does not mention the March, and credits Ainsleigh and others as the first to cover the course on foot. All these people have either forgotten, misremembered or discounted the importance of the March that they all had witnessed.
Moreover, none of the WSER founders or board of governors have ever publicly mentioned the March–except for one, under odd circumstances. In 2014 Shannon Yewell Weil, one of the Run founders, the de facto Western States historian who served on the WSER Board of Trustees for 30 years, gave a presentation in a private setting at the 2014 Western States Training Weekend. Ainsleigh attended the lecture. During her presentation, Weil briefly talked about the March, saying that she had “kept this story under wraps for decades.” Why? In a 2017 interview for this article, she admitted that the founders “propped up” Ainsleigh as the race’s “icon” and wanted to “make sure his place was cemented in history.” The title of Weil’s 2014 presentation was “This Will Never Catch on: The Birth of an Icon.” Perhaps making the story of the March public could have challenged Ainsleigh’s legacy, which WSER wanted to protect. When asked why the story of the March hasn’t been told publicly or acknowledged by WSER, she said that the story wasn’t viewed as significant to its history.
Weil’s 2017 account acknowledged that the March occurred, but downplayed it. In contrast, her remarks in 2014 were openly critical of the soldiers. In that presentation which was videoed, she repudiated the soldiers’ claims that they actually finished. She said that she had called Jim Larimer a couple years earlier to ask about the March. She claimed that in that call Larimer said that every one of remaining soldiers on the second day rode on his horse at one time or another.
Weil’s narrative describing cheating suffers from several credibility flaws. First, Jim Larimer passed away one year earlier and was no longer available to verify what amounted to hearsay. Second, the soldiers were split up in different groups since the start. They were never all together with Larimer. Remember also, that the horse was left behind at about mile 60. Third, the soldiers understood the integrity of their mission to cover the entire course on foot. Every one of them could have faced discipline from military authority had they cheated and attempted to cover it up. Fourth, not a single contemporary account reflected any cheating, even from riders who passed the soldiers and would have been eyewitness to cheating. Fifth, every soldier interviewed was credible in his present-day account and had no motive to lie, either then or now. Pinciaro, who reached mile 85 did not even know they had a guide with a horse. No money or fame was at stake, and the consequences of cheating, as mentioned, were much more severe than an embarrassing headline a newspaper. Sixth, Wendell Robie and the Ride officials endorsed the results, along with Larimer who stood next to the finishers at the banquet when they received their finisher awards. These accounts were corroborated by modern-day interviews. None of these individuals, especially Larimer, along with the soldiers, had any motive to cover up any cheating.
Finally, Weil in her passion for WSER history, more than 40 years after the fact, may have wanted to deflect the significance of the March: to cement Ainsleigh’s legacy, as he was instrumental in laying the groundwork for the WSER. The legend of the “first run” added to WSER’s mystique and appeal, and rewarded one of WSER’s tribe. Weil’s claim, standing in stark contrast to every other contemporary and modern account of the March, perhaps explains why history was at best forgotten or at worst, revised: because of that most common of human traits, tribal loyalty. The founders of WSER were all Western States Riders. Ainsleigh was one of their own. He was given credit for being the first, which suited them fine, since he marketed the stuffings out of the emerging Run. But it is likely that they all knew that Ainsleigh was really the eighth to cover the course on foot. Ainsleigh’s efforts to build and grow the emerging sport of 100-mile trail ultrarunning (which to his credit were laudably significant) eclipsed the original inspiration from the 1972 March. The soldiers were, after all, outsiders who came, finished the course, and then left. There was no good reason to remember them.
No matter the motives of WSER officials, then or now, there is no question that the Western States Trail Ride (Tevis Cup) and Wendell Robie were visionary and gracious in accommodating the March. The Ride staff were experienced in putting on 100-mile endurance events and knew better than anyone how to transition to support ultrarunners. Their experience created the cradle into which the sport of 100-mile trail ultrarunning was born. Putting the March into its proper place in history is not an easy task, or one devoid of passion, but it remains important, just as much as recognizing Robie for his vision of distance performance. (For more details about the history of the Western States Trail Ride and its impact on ultrarunning, see Ultrarunning’s Endurance Ride Roots.)

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2020 Italian GP Free Practice 1 and 2 Debrief - r/Formula1 Editorial Team