Hey all. Got a bit of feedback regarding my blog and posts and it was a bit positive, so here's my Day 3 writeup. Text below, link to website and full Google Document tracking tips is there:
https://valueburglar.wordpress.com/2019/03/14/cheltenham-festival-2019-day-3-tips/ Day 2 was much better than Day 1! With 9pts / £90 staked, and 12 pts / £120 returned, that’s the healthy sort of return we want consistently. Of course, we’re down overall, but forgive me for not worrying about that too much right now at the nascent stages of this venture.
It was also a good day for punters in general, with Altior retaining his crown (albeit with a little scare); Tiger Roll dominating; and the well-backed Band of Outlaws and Envoi Allen obliging, too.
Without further ado, here are my musings ahead of Thursday’s racing. There are a lot of very big fields and as a result, hopefully loads of value to find. Let’s continue the revival!
JLT Joel over at 2pts win, at the time of writing, simply says “Defi Du Seuil will win. 1pt win Defi Du Seuil @ 3/1” – and while I assume he’ll be a little more expansive on this in due course, I can’t really disagree. But right now, he’s 5/2, and that’s a little too skinny for my liking. Thus, we take him on with just the one bet. I think
Kildisart (9/1 generally) is the one to be on board at the prices. If his jumping improves (it looks a bit novicey, which is fair for a novices’ race!), then he can have a big say in proceedings.
Lostintranslation will have to find a little with Defi Du Seuil, especially off level weights, as will Vinndication – whose tendency to jump right-handed isn’t encouraging around Cheltenham, either. Real Steel would be a likeable bet, but he’s being supported even now into 6/1 (opened I think at 8s), so despite his lack of exposure, I’m going to swerve. Voix Du Reve is Ruby Walsh’s choice, and he loves this race. His form has been bang there, and he’d be my second option in this race – Walsh having won the JLT thrice.
Pertemps I find it strange that a Barry Geraghty-saddled horse in Sire Du Berlais is a relatively strong head of the market. His handicap record at Cheltenham is terrible, to go back to this Fat Jockey Forum thread. That said, the last three Pertemps winners have all been Irish, and have all been strong in the betting. To that end, I’ll go with current fourth-favourite
Walk To Freedom (12/1 each way with William Hill, 1/5 1-5), who is Robbie Power’s fancy for the race, and who ran a blinder in one of the qualifiers for this race. With two recent winners being at the top of the weights, Walk To Freedom could be another, and I like the value.
I have to have a second selection here though, especially with six places paid at some firms.
Aaron Lad (14/1 each way, Paddy Power or Betfair, 1/5 1-6) is trained by the shrewd Richard Newland and connections have hinted his 90-day break before this race was probably the plan. His last run was over course and distance and I was really taken with how much more he had to give the further the race progressed. A 9lb rise needs to be defied, though, but I’m happy with the price regardless.
There are too many others to mention and to cross-reference, but Abolitionist is taking a very similar route toward the Grand National as Pineau De Re, who wasn’t beaten far in this race on the way to a GN 2nd in 2014 – though I’m hoping just for a safe spin round. Wait For Me, with an estimable Cheltenham record, is worth a lash at a big 40/1, but wasn’t too good in last year’s Pertemps, so I’m not poking. First Assignment and Samburu Shujaa are both skinny-ish prices for a reason, too.
Ryanair Chase What a card. This is one of the deepest races at the festival. We are almost certainly going to see a bit of a pace war at the front, with four or five who like to make the running (Monalee, Un De Sceaux, Footpad, Frodon etc) ensuring it. The bookies also all seem to have a vice-like grip on the market, with it so competitive. At the time of writing, the top five in the market are generally between 4/1 and 7/1.
With BetVictor (again!) paying a fourth place on this race, I’m gonna take a chance on
Terrefort (25/1 each way with BetVictor, 1/5 1-4), who has looked decent when healthy this year, finishing in the frame behind Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux at trips of about 3m. While he’s got to find more – of course – the race will be run to suit, and the way he won his novice Grade 1s on soft (with a JLT second, too) gives me hope.
The other horse to potentially benefit from the race panning out this way is
Road to Respect (4/1 generally), who has swerved the Gold Cup for a tilt at this. If his jumping is better today, then I can definitely see him coming off a hot pace to pick up the pieces and win it around jumping the last or even in the home straight.
I’d want Monalee and Footpad at bigger prices; Un De Sceaux may be getting long in the tooth and is in a very deep renewal; and I don’t think Frodon will have the race run to suit. I can’t make a case for others at bigger prices, so this is it for me for the Ryanair.
Stayers’ Hurdle This will probably go to Paisley Park. He’s looked phenomenal this year and is a well-deserved 7/4 or so favourite, with wins in the Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles. I will therefore not be opposing him for win purposes, but with 18 runners, it’s worth having a look at the firms that offer four places (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes and a couple of others that don’t count).
Bapaume (22/1 each way with Coral and BetVictor, 1/5 1-4) ran well behind Presenting Percy last time out, and generally has looked solid behind Apple’s Jade too (though she disappointed on Tuesday – but I’d expressed my doubts about her liking for Cheltenham). There was a Grade 1 second place in France last May, and a tidy Grade 2 win over shorter – I think Bapaume is a model of consistency and thus I’m hoping to see a place accordingly.
I don’t think anything else in the race is really worth backing: Faugheen is too short and would make for a great story; Supasundae is too often a silver medallist and at 8/1 isn’t worth getting on board; Bacardys likes a fall… and I won’t continue, but you get my thinking, I presume.
Brown Advisory Plate Most bookies are offering five places. Only Bet365 are offering 1/4 odds with five places, so every tip will be with them. I’m not surprised they’re offering such good terms, though – this is a very tricky race to unpack. My go-to workings will involve trends in the race and from stables/yards – for the Plate, we can see Gigginstown have a decent enough record. Surprisingly they don’t come mob-handed to handicaps, and they have just one runner this year, Valseur Lido. 33/1 is the right price for a horse out of sorts and I won’t be taking it.
However, Venetia Williams sends two to this race, and her record is excellent. She’s had 20 runners, of whom two have won and two have placed, which is a great strike rate. She has been rubbish with her charges in most every other handicap, but the Plate is the one to zone in on. To that end, with both
Gardefort and
Didero Vallis at 25/1 with Bet365, I’ll be having a small interest on them.
Not a tip, but Kauto Riko flies the flag for the
/HorseRacingUK subreddit, and I’ll be very happy if he wins!
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Epatante is well-backed and too short for it. She looks very classy, but hasn’t beaten much, so in what is a pretty competitive field for this sort of race, we’ll be taking her on.
Sinoria (8/1 with Hills and 365) is a very attractive price, and was intended to run in the Ballymore, but moves here after Honeysuckle’s injury. Her win last time out has been franked by Chosen Mate, who was odds on for a Grade 2 event, and I think she’s completely the wrong price.
Also interesting is
Lust For Glory (20/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-3), who is three times the price of Posh Trish, with whom she essentially shares form. Thus, at a price, I’m happy to get on board.
Not a race I know too much about, so the stakes will be limited accordingly.
Kim Muir
Bet365 again come up trumps with five places at 1/4 odds. Then again, it’s another very difficult race to make something of, with the head of the market well looked up, and so many other contenders abound. I won’t have a bet on this one – good luck if you do!
Tips Summary
1.30 – Kildisart @ 9/1 – 0.75pts win
2.10 – Walk To Freedom @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Will Hill, 1/5 1-5)
2.10 – Aaron Lad @ 14/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Paddy Power or Betfair, 1/5 1-6)
2.50 – Terrefort @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (BetVictor, 1/5 1-4)
2.50 – Road To Respect @ 4/1 – 0.75pts win
3.30 – Bapaume @ 22/1 – 0.25pts e/w (Coral or BetVictor, 1/5 1-4)
4.10 – Gardefort @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-5)
4.10 – Didero Vallis @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (same as above)
4.50 – Sinoria @ 8/1 – 1pt win (Will Hill or Bet365)
4.50 – Lust For Glory @ 20/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-3)
That’s 9pts in play. We don’t need much to come in to profit – let’s go!
I get asked a lot for ‘tips’ from people. What do you like TODAY, what do you think about X’s chances? My answer is pretty much always the same but ultimately is “You need to think LONG term and develop a strategy“.
Most shrug and move on (hint: that’s usually the 95% of bettors that lose money over time) when I give the initial answer about developing a strategy but those are the ones who will consistently struggle with their betting as it involves effort that few are willing to put in, and there are few shortcuts. Other people work hard at it and those are the ones who give themselves the best chance of being successful with their betting, winning and showing good profits in the long run.
Personally, I have made £150,000 clear profit since the 2010 flat season so ‘on average’ around £26,000 per year which I am both happy with and proud of because making long-term profits through horse racing is a very hard thing to achieve. There can be losing spells which can be tough to deal with psychologically but is very much about adapting a winning mindset and a belief in your methods.
Now don’t get me wrong, I lost for many years but I learned a tremendous amount from those days which have made me the profitable value investor I am today. I’ve listed some of the key tips to profitable betting below, there are plenty more but if you don’t have a grasp on these 7 I suspect you will always struggle to get any kind of decent return from betting.
1) DON’T BE A LAZY GAMBLER "Laziness travels so slowly that poverty soon overtakes him – Benjamin Franklin"
So many punters I know bet ‘on gut’, follow favourites or tipsters blindly or just try to make decisions based on summaries in the Racing Press or online but there is a reason why some ‘professional gamblers’ resort to punditry on TV and a reason why these ‘experts’ are working for media companies. It’s mainly because they talk a good talk or have had success in the past before the market wised up to them. A lot of punters also just don’t learn or adapt with the times, which you have to do on a regular basis. Many gamblers looked up to the big-betting exploits of Harry Findlay but has anyone heard from him lately? Last I heard he had filed for bankruptcy back in 2012. You need to stop being so lazy and start using your time more effectively to understand your own betting and formulate your own choices.
2) SPECIALISE AND FOCUS "If you chase two rabbits…you will not catch either one – Russian Proverb"
There is a LOT of racing out there, more than there has ever been. My general advice to punters is to specialise and focus. I personally look at Class1/2 handicaps at the big meetings for my main bets but also look at Group races. Occasionally I will look at good Class 3 contests if I believe there is value. I will avoid maidens, novices, sellers, claimers, hunter chases, 2yo contests, fillies’ only contests and a few more that I consider to be ‘volatile’. This means I can focus on just a few races each weekend or at the main festivals and be more selective. So don’t overload yourself, find a race type you are good at or enjoy and learn everything you can about it.
3) DON’T BE AN ACTION JUNKIE "Any kind of novelty or excitement drives up dopamine in the brain, and dopamine is associated with romantic love – Helen Fisher"
There should be no such thing as a ‘fun’ bet – the only fun bet is one that wins you a heap of cash. Don’t bet for an ‘interest’ in a race or a football match just because your team is playing. It’s one of the biggest problems punters get into trying to win every race or over-betting for the dopamine release into your brain. Like being a junkie, it’s a short-term rush and the longer-term results are an emptier betting bank and a feeling of deflation so ignore these Twitter Tipsters that are so prevalent nowadays asking you to ‘post your slip’ or bet for Yankees, Lucky-15’s every day. Ask whether they bet all these ‘tips’ they give out, there is a reason why they don’t record their results and plug affiliate links constantly, they basically want you to lose so they earn 33% commission off your cumulative losses. It’s difficult enough to find one winner let alone 4 and the bookies will always welcome your custom. One way to really tell if you are a losing action junkie is whether you still actually have a betting account that accepts your bets.
4) RECORD YOUR BETS – ALL OF THEM! "We all make mistakes, have struggles, and even regret things in our past. But you are not your mistakes, you are not your struggles, and you are here NOW with the power to shape your day and your future – Steve Maraboli"
It’s vital to your long-term success to record ALL your bets, all of them and every possible detail you can about them, whether the horse was a favourite, the odds, the race type, the trainer, the jockey etc. etc. The reason why is that patterns in your betting reveal themselves over time. You will see the type of bets you are not so good at, whether you bet the same trainer or jockey regardless of the horses chances, whether you are rubbish at 2yo maiden races (like me!) and just really where your focus should be. This allows you to plug the leaks in your betting and develop a much better strategy as mentioned in Step 2 and also falls in with Step 1 of not being lazy. The effort you put into recording your bets is well worth it and one of the main reasons I managed to turn my betting around to maximize my yield. Record your results and analyse them closely.
5) THINK AND PLAN LONG TERM "Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago – Warren Buffett"
Most punters are looking for a quick-fix, have a closed mind, are lazy and want ‘tips’ spoon-fed to them but the main issue is that they have a very short-term mindset. I can pretty much tell which type of bettor someone will be within my first few interactions with them. If they have a run of bad results over a week or even a month then they will look to blame anyone but themselves instead of adapting the long-term mindset and the ability to examine their results which comes back to the previous step. What is long-term? Well some might consider it a few weeks, some a few months, some a season, very few consider a year or 3+ years but that is how it should be viewed. When you go for a job interview, unless you are a contractor, you don’t ask how much the weekly or monthly salary is…you are interested in the annual wage and that is how you should view your betting AT LEAST over a year.
6) SEEK THE VALUE "All intelligent investing is value investing – to acquire more than you are paying for. Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass – Charlie Munger"
This should probably go to number 1 to be honest but value means different things to different people. I make my own oddsline so I can see value in EVERY single race thanks to the automatically generated odds-lines for each race. Does that mean you should bet every single one? Well, no…that is where the ‘Specialise and Focus’ step comes in but if you are not backing horses at bigger odds than the market estimates their chances then you will really struggle to make a long-term profit. You could back a horse at 6/4 that should be 5/4, that is value but I would rather back a horse at 20/1 that should be 10/1. There may be longer losing runs but the payoff for me is far better. Of course this depends on how good you are at selecting long-odds shots but on Betfair you can get some crazily overpriced top-rated horses who pay 50/1 instead of the 33/1 SP for example. So don’t look for winners of races, look for overlays within the race.
7) PRACTICE DETACHMENT "Manifest plainness, Embrace simplicity, Reduce selfishness, Have few desires – Lao Tzu"
This one is trickier and I find most struggle with. I find that yoga and meditation help tremendously with this but if that is a bit new-age for you then just lift some weights or go for a run to take your mind of things as you will make poor decisions if you base your betting on emotions. If you reaction to a losing bet is to blame the jockey, the trainer, the tipster first rather than just shake off a losing bet and moving on, then you need to practice detachment. If you are value betting you also need to accept you will back a lot more losers than winners but it’s important to get out of the winning/losing mindset, detach yourself from recent results and accept that losses are part of being a profitable long-term value punter.
Ultimately you need to believe in yourself, work hard and use data that the majority of the market does not have access to.
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results – Albert Einstein"
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