Super Bowl odds 2020: Betting moves point total another ...

total money bet on super bowl 2020

total money bet on super bowl 2020 - win

MAKES WSB GREAT AGAIN WITH SOME $WKHS DD

Buckle up retards cuz this autist is about to take you on a ride to tendy town. Inb4 you all check my post history and bitch about all my WKHS posts, ya no fucking shit I’m gonna post about a stock I love. Inb4 Inb4 you tinfoil hat wearing GME/AMC fucks attack me, last time I checked there’s more than two stocks on the exchanges. Anyways here goes,
Workhorse group is a Loveland, Ohio EV manufacturer. 100% American Made (insert American Eagle boner gif) and completely electric for all you who value the environment or whatever. I’m sure you’ve all come across it at some point especially when I was the top trending stock for like a week at the end of June/July. As many of you might now, this shitshow of a government we have here in the good ol’ USA is looking to upgrade their self combusting USPS fleet via a NGDV (Next Generation Delivery Vehicle) bidding process for a contract to the tune of approximately 8 billion. When all is said and done, including maintenance and upkeep, the contract in the span of a decade or more is about 20b. This NGDV contract is the “betting” portion of this stock and despite what all the retarded naysayers claim, there is a fuck ton more to WKHS besides this contract. This is the cherry on top so I’m starting top down with this masterpiece.
Currently, there are three remaining bids from companies involved in this NGDV selection process. Karsan (a Turkish company), Ford/Oshkosh (joint venture), and our beloved WKHS.
Karsan - I can’t see this winning even a fraction of a percent of the contract due to it not being American. Not because it’s a bad company but if you check the requirements for the companies, they snuck in a clause that mandated 75% American made parts to be selected. Also, Biden, for the better part of his campaign and to this day has been proclaiming that he will be bringing American manufacturing to the forefront again and we will be buying American (something he and Trump miraculously had in common). For this reason, Karsan is seen as a non-factor.
Ford/Oshkosh - The only realistic challenger to WKHS and only bear case being made against it. Undoubtedly, Ford is as American as it gets. But even more undoubtedly, they are shitty and unreliable as fuck. Millions of recalls on Ford vehicles in the past and present. Another big issue with this is that Biden was “zero-emission”. The prototype submitted for the proposal was a hybrid and not fully EV. For this reason, I think Ford receives a portion of this contract no greater than 25%. Another reason I think they’ll get only a minor stake in this is because their prototype does indeed actually fare better in rural routes where charging stations just aren’t all that practical or possible.
The whole NGDV process has been going on for about 6 years and there’s no surprise that this inefficient government has been unable to wrap the process up at this point and then Covid took over. Yes there have been delays to the contract award as recently as October 2020. In a lettememo addressed to the USPS Board of Governors, they were urged to not further delay this process as with the current degradation of the existing fleet, doing so would harm the project altogether and further complicate the process of removing these shitboxes that have been around since ‘87. With Covid being the last excuse to delay, and the vaccine now being rolled out, I DO NOT foresee another stalling of the process.
Another reason WKHS is my favorite in this race is that DeJoy’s current philosophy on the USPS is to cut costs and to have the entity become for cost efficient. In case you haven’t noticed, ICE vehicles are much more costly to run and maintain that a 100% EV vehicle. Fewer parts means fewer problems and much less maintenance and repair costs. Also, in their recent financial statements, the USPS had requested a 600% increase in their infrastructure spending. I don’t see too many post offices crumbling to the ground, so this can only mean they’re gearing up to install a metric fuck ton of charging stations. By going fully EV, billions will be saved over time by the post office, an entity that’s currently burning cash like it’s their fucking job.
THE LAST DELAY IN THE NGDV SLATES THE CONTRACT TO BE AWARDED FISCAL 2021 Q2 WHICH MEANS JANUARY-MARCH 2021.
Enough about the contract though, let’s talk other aspects. WKHS is currently partnered with UPS in testing by out their fleet and also more importantly their drone delivery capabilities. WKHS currently owns the patents to vehicle borne drone launching technology. This isn’t talked about enough. Many people think the future of this company hinges on that shitshow of a contract when in reality the really exciting part is this drone tech. It would be extremely helpful and useful in efficient package delivery especially when there’s a whole fleet management system capabilities that the company offers. As the autonomous tech and drones sector begin to grow exponentially, WKHS has a head start on it (the commercial delivery aspect).
Institutional holdings lies at almost 50%. The big boys and big girls (BAE Cathie Wood) are in on the company and they are in heavy. My wife Cathie must be seeing something in the future of this company if she’s grown her holding to over 2.2m shares and she’s not gonna throw some money into a gamble on a fucking government contract.
Many claim that production is an issue but this is more a scare tactic than an actual issue. Sister company Lordstown Motors (Ticker: Ride) is led by former WKHS CEO. They have offered their factory, which has the capability to pump out about 600k vehicles a year, if WKHS needs it. Important to note that WKHS has a 10% stake in Lordstown and will receive royalties on the first 100k Endurance EV pickup trucks that Lordstown sells. So there’s another form of revenue the company has going for it.
It’s a growth stock with a lot of potential and it’s logistically gearing up to grow. Received 200m financing from an institutional Investor during the late summeearly fall, and it entered into an agreement with Hitachi, to be assured in the logistics of the company. Hitachi is a pretty serious company to be partnered with unless you plan on slinging out vehicles. Most recently, a 6,320 truck order came in from Pritchard which totals around 250m give or take a few bucks. This is all while IKEA a company that aims to go fully electric by 2025 is testing out a fleet of WKHS C1000 vehicles.
Connect the fucking dots and join the ride fellow autists. I’ve been long WKHS since January of 2020 and there’s plenty of room to run. High risk high reward with this growth stock but that’s why we’re all here right?
Positions - 1000 shares, 11x $60c 2/12 (USPS BOG meeting Tuesday so these are scratch off lottos basically), 5x $60c 2/19 (see previous calls), 11x 45c 4/16.
Let’s ride this horse to tendy town fellas 🤝
Edit: I’m a retard blah blah blah THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE I JUST LOVE THIS STOCK blah blah blah
EDIT 2 - WKHS vehicles are being showcased at the super bowl as Pritchard is using WKHS trucks to take people to and from the super bowl and various surrounding locations. Essentially they are marketing themselves by providing shuttle services.
Edit 3 - WKHS is currently at about 30% short sold so a contract announcement in their favor will easily rocket this to 100+ as shorts scramble to cover. It sneaky made the list of highly shorted stocks.
Edit 4 - 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 (FOR THE VISUAL LEARNING RETARDS)
Edit 5 - TLDR: WKHS is 100% American made EV Last Mile Delivery Vehicle. Has Patents pending for its drone delivery tech. Frontrunner for USPS 8.2b+ Government Fleet Contract (NGDV Contract). Heavy institutional ownership including BAE Cathie Wood. 30% Short Float to be squeezed on contract announcement.
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A Draft Pick, Free Agent Signing and Trade Target for all 32 teams

Title says it all. Going to suggest a player to be drafted in either the first or second round (or third for HOU at the moment) for each team, along with a player to target in free agency, and a player to potentially trade for.
Trying to avoid overlap as best I can, but some may have similar targets. Resources used include PFF, The Draft Network, and OverTheCap. Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

Trade Target: DT J.J. Watt, Houston Texans - The last deal between Arizona and Houston worked out well. Why not try again and add a serious piece to their pass rushing arsenal in Watt. An ideal interior fit for Arizona, Watt would help them push for the playoffs in his final seasons in the league.
Draft Pick: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - Reuniting Kyler Murray with his old center for the Sooners would be an excellent move. The Cardinals currently have Mason Cole at center, but could easily slide him over to guard to make room for Humphrey if they wanted a significant upgrade at an underrated position.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - Arizona would be wise to look at adding Jonnu Smith into the equation on offense. One of the NFL's best after the catch at the TE position, he'd be another fun weapon to slot alongside Murray and Hopkins.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

Trade Target: S Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions - With a new regime coming in, Detroit is headed towards an extended rebuild, and acquiring assets for up-and-down players like Walker could be a consideration. Now, still young, Walker has plenty of potential for the Falcons, and if the price is right, could be a tremendous bargain.
Draft Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - While Matt Ryan will remain the QB of the Falcons next season, due to his contract, the Falcons should plan for the future and add a Georgia native in Fields, one of the better QB's out of college football in recent years. He'd be able to develop behind Ryan under the tutelage of new head coach Arthur Smith.
Free Agent Signing: CB Mackensie Alexander, Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons do not have positive cap space at the moment (currently projected $30 million over the limit) so even after reworking deals and cutting some players, they'll be bargain shopping more than anything else. PFF projects Alexander to fetch a deal of about 2-years, $6 million, which could be feasible for the Falcons. He'd be a solid veteran presence across from CB A.J. Terrell.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Houston - I list him in "trade target" as he's technically under contract in Houston going into 2021. However, it's 99% more likely that the Texans cut him and Baltimore pursues him as a newly released free agent. Kind of cheating on my listings, but I like the idea of Mercilus in Baltimore after Houston cuts him. It'd be a coup for Houston if they could get a pick for him. Mercilus is a veteran pass rusher who could step into a role in Baltimore should OLB Matt Judon depart for greener pastures...green meaning money of course.
Draft Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - The idea of Bateman in Baltimore remains one of my favorite potential pairings for any player likely to be selected in the first round of the draft. Similar to Keenan Allen in my opinion, Bateman could become the go-to wide receiver the Ravens lacked last season.
Free Agent Signing: G Jon Feliciano, Buffalo Bills - The Ravens need to bolster the middle of their offensive line, and a tough veteran like Feliciano could be ideal target for the Ravens. With a big contract committed to LT Ronnie Staley, a cheaper veteran like Feliciano could match price tag with talent. Good value for the Ravens.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Trade Target: DT Malcom Brown, New Orleans Saints - The Saints are in cap space purgatory, and thus could be looking to offload some decent players like Brown simply to get back under the cap. He's a solid starting DT who could be available for cheap in the Saints push to real in their financial situation. A strong fit next to Ed Oliver on the inside.
Draft Pick: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - Given their limited cap space, the Bills may have to decide between re-signing OT Daryl Williams and LB Matt Milano. If so, a replacement like Surratt could be a smart move for Sean McDermott and co. as Surratt is a quick backer who excels in space and has shown plenty of promise in coverage.
Free Agent Signing: DE Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions - The Bills aren't loaded with cap space (barely above 0 if the cap stays down at $175 million), but I'd imagine they'll find some ways to free some cap up. If they do, they may want to consider Okwara, a rising pass-rusher, as a replacement for some of their own departing edge rushers. He tallied 10 sacks this season after hitting 7.5 sacks in 2018 in Detroit. While not elite, Okwara's likely a solid value pass-rusher for a contender like the Bills.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - The Panthers just drafted DT Derrick Brown, but pairing him and Hicks together could become a dominant duo in the middle of that defense. And with DT Kawann Short a likely cut candidate, Hicks could be an instant upgrade for Carolina.
Draft Pick: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - Forget the QB position, if the Panthers have the opportunity to land Parsons at 8th overall, they should pull the trigger. He'd be an immediate boost of speed, instincts and athleticism into their linebacker corps, a strong replacement for Luke Kuechly.
Free Agent Signing: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams - More of a move tight end than a traditional in-line blocker, Everett could be an exceptional value signing for someone, as he's not likely to command as much money as Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, but is a very good player himself.

Chicago Bears (8-8)

Trade Target: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers - Unless the Bears are set to bring back Mitch Trubisky, who played a bit better to end the season but still not strong enough, the Bears should look at the veteran QB market. While Garoppolo has had some injury issues, he's a notable upgrade over Trubisky and could give them a steady veteran presence for a couple of more years.
Draft Pick: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - There's growing buzz that Rashawn Slater could join Penei Sewell in the top-10, leaving him just out of the Bears' grasp. But Darrisaw is quite the consolation prize as he's a first-round caliber offensive tackle himself who could fill a big need for the offense in the Windy City.
Free Agent Signing: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs - Watkins and Bears head coach Matt Nagy did not cross paths in Kansas City, but a recommendation from Andy Reid could push the two together. The Bears are another team facing some cap complications, and thus may need a cheaper replacement for Allen Robinson on the outside. If so, Watkins has been a strong complimentary receiver who could pair well with rising youngster Darnell Mooney.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Trade Target: G Joe Dahl, Detroit Lions - Finding protection and weapons for QB Joe Burrow is the primary goal for Cincinnati this offseason before they enter the coaching carousel in 2022. Dahl is a strong pass protector who has grown into a quality starter. However, with large contracts for C Frank Ragnow coming up, along with big deals in place for Decker and Vaitai, Detroit may need to send Dahl out for picks.
Draft Pick: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - There is buzz that Northwestern's Rashawn Slater may be viewed as OT1, and I get the hype, however, I'm sticking with Sewell for now. The Bengals should draft Sewell and get him ready to go as their franchise left tackle in 2021.
Free Agent Signing: CB Troy Hill, Los Angeles Rams - The Bengals have a healthy chunk of cap space, and should use of that to bring back CB William Jackson III. However, they should not stop there, they should also make a push for a quality veteran cornerback like Hill to bolster their defense in the meantime.

Cleveland Browns (11-5)

Trade Target: LB Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys - After looking like an elite linebacker from 2017-2019, Smith had a rough year under now fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. A fresh start in Cleveland could be ideal for both teams, as Smith is still young enough, 26 years, to be a strong piece to their defense for years to come.
Draft Pick: DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns are in a strong position at 26th overall to sit and see who the top defensive lineman on the board is. If they're lucky enough for it to be a high potential defensive tackle like Nixon, it'd be an ideal situation to bring him in the replace Ogunjobi. A defensive end like Jayson Oweh or Jaelan Phillips could also work here.
Free Agent Signing: S Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints - The Browns could use a big upgrade on the back end, and Williams, at only 24 years old, would be a premium add for a team who finally broke through the playoffs. PFF projects Williams to command a deal around 4-years $57 million, and the Browns would likely have the money to make that happen, sitting tenth in cap space this offseason.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Trade Target: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings - Hughes was a first-round pick for the Vikings in 2018, but has not lived up to the billing so far. Dallas is in need of several new faces on its defensive backfield, and perhaps a new situation could be best for Hughes to turn his NFL career around. For Dallas, a cheap flier on defense.
Draft Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - The Cowboys defense is a mess at many levels, and so picking a premium defensive player like Surtain would be a wise for Dallas to get things straightened out. He's consistently been pegged as the top corner of this draft cycle and makes a lot of sense in Dallas.
Free Agent Signing: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants - The Cowboys ranked 31st in total rushing yards surrendered in 2020, meaning they'll need to make it a priority to find a run-stuffer like Dalvin Tomlinson to get their defense back on track. While most teams are geared towards stopping the pass, you simply cannot be as bad in run stopping as Dallas was and expect to be competitive.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

Trade Target: QB Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders - An inter-divisional trade for a QB seems unlikely, but it's something for both sides to consider. The Broncos need to find a veteran QB to bring in to push QB Drew Lock, who has shown flashes in his first two years but has so far been too inconsistent to commit to long-term.
Draft Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - More likely a second-round selection here, the Broncos should consider finding a player to develop into Von Miller's replacement, given all the complications with their star pass-rusher recently. Tryon has a high motor and excellent athleticism to develop across from Bradley Chubb.
Free Agent Signing: CB Quinton Dunbar, Seattle Seahawks - Dunbar was an excellent player for Washington previously, but did not meet expectations after getting moved to the Seahawks. Should he walk in free agency, perhaps putting him under a solid defensive coach like Vic Fangio could help him get back into the strong form that made him a coveted player in 2019.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

Trade Target: A Big Haul for Matt Stafford - We suggest one later on, but Detroit's in a full-on rebuild with Stafford wanting out. Peter King recently reported that at least five teams would be willing to offer their first-rounder for Stafford. Detroit should turn it into a bidding war and land as many draft picks as they can to bolster their rebuilding efforts.
Draft Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Lions are moving on from QB Matthew Stafford after he understandably requested out. With Detroit picking at 7th, there's a very good chance that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson are all off the board. Thus, unless Detroit makes a bold move up the board, chances are that they go with Lance, who has the potential to be available with their pick. He has plenty of upside to develop into a starting QB behind a veteran QB, say Tyrod Taylor, reuniting with new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn?
Free Agent Signing: LB Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills - If we were ranking worst position groups in the league, Detroit's LB corps is in strong contention. An outdated group of lethargic old-school thumpers, almost none of Detroit's LB's are capable of playing modern football at a high level. Detroit should invest some cash into someone who is, such as the Bills LB Matt Milano, an excellent backer with range and some ability in coverage.

Green Bay Packers

Trade Target: WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys - The Packers wide receivers performed quite well after all the criticism Green Bay received after not bringing in anyone for QB Aaron Rodgers. However, good is the enemy of great, and pairing Gallup with Davante Adams would give Green Bay an elite duo in terms of pass catchers.
Draft Pick: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was here as well, I think he could be another strong option, but Bolton is an excellent linebacker who can fill gaps inside and fly from sideline-to-sideline.
Free Agent Signing: CB Gareon Conley, Houston Texans - Like the Falcons listed earlier, the Packers don't have positive cap space at the moment, and thus any free agent additions will likely be bargain bin deals. I like the example that PFF lists in their free agency preview, suggesting Conley could replicate Ronald Darby's return, taking a year deal with the aims of getting things turned around and landing a larger deal after that. An opportunity in Green Bay seems like a good start.

Houston Texans (4-12)

Trade Target: Every Pick they can get from the Jets - Even hiring a veteran coach like Culley to run the show and attempt to repair the relationship with Watson, it seems unlikely to me that Houston holds on, given the issues between Watson and owner Cal McNair. Thus, if forced to deal him, the Texans should aim to land at least three first rounders from a team like the Jets, who could see Watson as a better player than any of the QB's available behind Trevor Lawrence.
Draft Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU - This obviously assumes a trade with the Jets sends #2 overall to Houston. If so, Wilson looks like the next best bet behind Lawrence in my opinion. He, along with the boatload of additional assets that would come along in this trade, should be a solid foundation for Culley and co.'s rebuild.
Free Agent Signing: S Malik Hooker, Indianapolis Colts - The Texans will start their rebuild without any cap space, meaning that taking chances on younger guys like Hooker, 24 years old, to potentially find useful pieces is key. If they can land Hooker to play safety for them on a cheap 1-2 year deal, that'd be ideal for Houston.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Easy one here. If the Colts had Stafford in 2020 they probably would have replaced the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Stafford is only 32 years, meaning he still has a strong 4-5 years left to help the Colts' well-rounded roster make a championship push. Surrendering a first round pick and potentially a 2022 3rd (if there competition from others) is a gamble I'd definitely make if I were Chris Ballard.
Draft Pick: DE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Assuming the Colts use their first on the aforementioned Stafford deal, then finding a balanced edge rusher like Jones would be a great move for Indy. With players like Denico Autry and Justin Houston headed to free agency (and getting old), the Colts would get a terror on the edge with a tremendous motor and tools to develop.
Free Agent Signing: WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears - The Colts have a large amount of cap space, second in the league according to OTC's projections. Given that they will need to conserve some of that war chest for internal extensions, they would be wise to replace T.Y. Hilton with a more dominant receiver like Allen Robinson. An offseason adding Matt Stafford and Robinson together should make Frank Reich and Marcus Brady very excited for 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

Trade Target: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns - If the Browns are preparing to move on from Beckham Jr., then perhaps sending him down to Jacksonville to pair up with Urban Meyer could help get him playing elite football again. After posting 1,000 yard season in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, an injury once again cut his year short.
Draft Pick: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - Not at #1 overall obviously. We all know that will go to QB Trevor Lawrence. However, with the Rams 1st round selection (acquired via the Jalen Ramsey trade), the Jaguars should look to use it on an upgrade to their offensive line in the form of Radunz.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Provided new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen brings a Ravens style 3-4 defense with him, then adding a premier OLB like Barrett while K'Lavon Chaisson develops would be a great move for Jacksonville. With the NFL's lead in cap space, Jacksonville could afford Barrett along with some other instant contributors.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

Trade Target: WR Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears - The Chiefs could easily lose WR Sammy Watkins to free agency, leaving an opening for another wideout to join the rotation. Miller has been fairly productive in Chicago, and could be a solid option to join Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Andy Reid's passing attack.
Draft Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker gets mocked to the Chiefs a lot, and it makes perfect sense why. A premier offensive line talent, he has some versatility after playing tackle for the Trojans. While I think his best fit is inside, he'd be an ideal player for Kansas City to add to bolster their protection after investing so much in QB Patrick Mahomes.
Free Agent Signing: C Ted Karras, Miami Dolphins - The Chiefs will also be bargain bin hunting, as they're currently over the cap by $18 million. Thus, a starting caliber center like Ted Karras could prove useful for the defending Super Bowl champs (at this point). Karras signed with the Dolphins for only $3 million last season, and a similar deal with KC could be an absolute bargain when all is said and done.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - I mentioned Hicks for the Panthers as well, but he'd be a great add for either team, perhaps even more so for the Raiders, who could easily see DT Johnathan Hankins depart in free agency. A disruptive player in the middle, he'd be a nice add in Las Vegas.
Draft Pick: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - After shockingly selecting DE Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall in 2019, the Raiders have still been searching for a game changer at DE to go alongside the productive efforts of Maxx Crosby. Ojulari profiles as a high potential pass rusher to scratch that itch for Jon Gruden and co.
Free Agent Signing: S Anthony Harris, Minnesota Vikings - The Raiders may have to get creative to free up the cap space to land Harris, as they're currently over. But if they can do it, he'd be an ideal player to add to the Vegas' defense, now led by defensive coordinator Ken Whisen...uh...Gus Bradley. Harris is an elite free safety who would pair well with Jonathan Abram.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Danny Shelton, Detroit Lions - Shelton struggled in Detroit, but frankly, everyone on Patricia's defense did. Before that, Shelton posted strong results as a 3-4 interior gap-plugger, doing a quality job for both the Browns and Patriots before him. With Linval Joseph on the decline, adding a younger replacement for cheap could be in store.
Draft Pick: G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - LA needs a couple of new starters on its offensive line, and if the tackles fly off the board before they can get one at 13th overall, then perhaps a top notch guard could also suffice. Davis has been a consistent player for the Buckeyes and projects as an instant impact lineman for someone at the next level.
Free Agent Signing: OT Alejandro Villanueva, Pittsburgh Steelers - A sturdy, veteran left tackle should be a big priority for the Chargers, as the imperative to protect QB Justin Herbert is high. After a breakout season for Herbert, he gives the franchise a ton of optimism under new head coach Brandon Staley. Keeping him upright is something Villanueva would do well at.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Trade Target: QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Rams are in a pickle with QB Jared Goff. He has not been a strong point for the team recently, but his contract is a bit too heavy to move right now. Thus, a cheaper way to acquire some genuine competition for Goff could be to trade for the affordable Minshew, a solid starter in his own right. Jacksonville will be bringing in Trevor Lawrence anyways to replace him, so perhaps acquiring a pick or so to send him out could be a wise move.
Draft Pick: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Provided that new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris isn't changing the scheme outright, Roche would be an excellent fit at 3-4 OLB in LAR. He's a dynamic pass rusher with excellent physical traits. If he falls to the Rams in the second-round they shouldn't think twice about selecting him.
Free Agent Signing: LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit Lions - The Rams are another team already over the cap, so not a lot to spend on. However, they could use some help at inside linebacker, and Davis projects to be a relatively cheap piece to take a gamble on. Physically impressive, he's struggled with the mental side of the game. If Morris can get him sorted out, it could be excellent value.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Trade Target: WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dolphins will likely have the opportunity to draft a premier wide receiver in the first round, but could also use some of their stockpile to add an established star like Jones. Giving Tua as many options as you can is a wise move.
Draft Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Reuniting Harris and Tua in a backfield would fill a big need for the Dolphins. Whether taking him with their second selection in the first round or hoping he drops to the second, Miami should get serious about finding a talented running back,
Free Agent Signing: G Joe Thuney, New England Patriots - The Dolphins still have a decent amount of cap space (8th in the league) and could easily use some of that to target an upgrade to the interior of their offensive line by adding Thuney. Thuney crossed paths with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores in New England, and a reunion down south could be profitable for both parties.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Tyquan Lewis, Indianapolis Colts - Lewis may not be on the trade block, but the Colts have both defensive tackles locked up ahead of him (Buckner, Grover Stewart). Perhaps they'd consider moving a young, promising 3-technique if Minnesota put together a quality offer for him. He'd instantly fill a need for the Vikings.
Draft Pick: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - With the failed Yannick Ngakoue tenure, the Vikings still need to find a premium pass rusher. Rousseau sat out 2020, but was dominant the year before and projects as a highly athletic piece for Zimmer to develop.
Free Agent Signing: OT Matt Feiler, Pittsburgh Steelers - Feiler offers a lot of versatility, which works great for Minnesota, as they could insert Feiler as a starting tackle, or slide G Ezra Cleveland into the LT position and put Feiler in at guard. Either way, a relatively affordable upgrade on the OL.

New England Patriots (7-9)

Trade Target: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are another team finding themselves in a less-than-ideal cap situation, and thus, will likely explore moving a top player like Ertz. While the Patriots have drafted a handful of decent role players at TE, they've lacked a player of Ertz's caliber. He'd be a nice upgrade to help whomever the Patriots land at QB.
Draft Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - It seems unlikely that Devonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase slip to New England, but I'd imagine they'd be perfectly content with a potential stud like Waddle to bolster their mediocre group of pass catchers. He's a very smooth player with a lot of potential.
Free Agent Signing: QB Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys - Dalton got off to a rough start with Dallas in relief of QB Dak Prescott, scoring a total of 13 points in 2 games while throwing 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions. However, he was admirable after that, throwing 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while posting a 4-3 record over that stretch. Dalton could be an upgrade over Cam Newton for New England while they hunt for a new franchise QB to replace Tom Brady.

New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, or Latavius Murray - The Saints game isn't necessarily who they should bring in, but if they can get picks for some players with bloated contracts that they may need to cut. If they can score some late-round picks to move these guys (or others) elsewhere, they need to pull the trigger.
Draft Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - While it seems like the hype train on Toney has left the station, it'd be incredible if he slipped to the Saints at 28th overall in this draft. An explosive player, he'd be an ideal partner for WR Michael Thomas, giving Taysom Hill or maybe Jameis(?) some excellent weapons.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks - The Saints, as mentioned, are in cap purgatory. Their signings will be quite minimum once they make the trades, cuts, and restructures required to get them back under the cap. However, one cheaper option could be a solid TE like Hollister, as TE Jared Cook is set to depart. Putting up 25 catches including 3 touchdowns at a price tag a shade over $3 million could be in New Orleans price range.

New York Giants (6-10)

Trade Target: G Gabe Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders - Jackson has been rumored to be available for a little while now. Not yet 30 years old, he's a steady veteran option on the interior of any offensive line and would fit quite well with the Giants.
Draft Pick: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - If the Dolphins don't take Smith, the Giants certainly should. Ensuring that QB Daniel Jones has the weapons he needs to grow into the franchise QB role is pertinent. Smith is a stud pass catcher and would be an excellent pick if he were on the board at 10th overall.
Free Agent Signing: EDGE Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have let a handful of pass rushers walk, and if they do so with Judon this year, the Giants should go get him. While Yannick could also be a Ravens OLB on the market, Judon fits Joe Judge's style a little bit more than Yannick does, and could be available for cheaper, which is important for another cap squeezed team like the Giants.

New York Jets (2-14)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - As I do think Justin Fields or Zach Wilson can be good franchise QB's, Watson already is an exceptional one. The Jets should put together a package of picks to go land the beleaguered QB and unite him with Robert Saleh, whom he listed as one of the guys he originally wanted Houston to interview.
Draft Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Assuming the Jets send both first-round selections to the Texans in the hypothetical Watson trade, the Jets would still have a premium pick to start off the second-round, one they should use to add a top tier WR like St. Brown who could be a star quickly.
Free Agent Signing: CB William Jackson III, Cincinnati Bengals - If the Bengals can't lock Jackson up to an extension before free agency, the Jets should throw some cash at him to be a foundational piece of Saleh's defense in the Big Apple.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery - Like the Saints, the Eagles probably should focus on offloading bloated contracts rather than bringing anyone in. The cheap rookie contracts that draft picks provide will be needed to steer themselves out of cap purgatory.
Draft Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Eagles and Chase are an ideal fit, and new head coach Nick Sirianni sure could use the big play ability that Chase provides. Whichever QB ends up getting the start, they'll be happy to have a guy like Chase to throw to.
Free Agent Signing: CB Bashaud Breeland, Kansas City Chiefs - The Eagles have a horrific cap situation themselves, and thus, a lower-end veteran like Breeland can give them a solid starter at an affordable price as the Eagles try and sort out their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Steelers may have brought in Dwayne Haskins, but frankly I have little faith there. Instead, they should call up the Jets to figure out what Darnold will cost them. One season behind Roethlisberger in his final go could be a great change of pace for Darnold before taking over.
Draft Pick: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - Everyone is too cool for elite running backs in the wannabe scouting world. But Etienne is a stud, and the Steelers need a big upgrade at running back. If they don't like their options for QB late into the first, they should give serious weight to taking Etienne and landing an elite player rather than reach for a lesser player elsewhere.
Free Agent Signing: G Elijah Wilkinson, Denver Broncos - Wilkinson had a very rough 2019 season, but has been a good deal better in 2020. He's still on the younger end, not even 26 years old, and could be an affordable gamble for Pittsburgh, who also needs to find their way back under the cap ($35 million over).

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - If the Colts don't land Stafford, the 49ers absolutely should. Pairing Stafford and Kyle Shanahan would be fun to watch, and he'd be a much most consistent player for the 49ers than the oft-injured Jimmy G. It's a big move, but one Shanahan may want to consider to make another championship run.
Draft Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - If the 49ers don't move for Stafford and keep their first-round selection, they should target a top tier corner like Farley as they have a handful of corners (Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams) set to hit the open market.
Free Agent Signing: DT Shelby Harris, Denver Broncos - The 49ers top priority should be retaining OT Trent Williams, but after that, adding a veteran pass rusher on the interior could be a good move. Harris has been a consistent player for Denver, but has yet to be rewarded with a big opportunity, something he could get here alongside Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Trade Target: DT Jonathan Allen, Washington Football Team - I'm not sure the Football Team would move him, but he is on the final year of his deal, and Washington's going to have weigh future deals for DE's Montez Sweat and Chase Young into the equation. If they aren't willing to pony up for three studs on the defensive line, they may look to add some picks in exchange for Allen.
Draft Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A late riser up the board after a stellar junior year in Evanston. Newsome has ideal size (6'1, 190 lbs) for Seattle and could help fill a gap if they have to choose between Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar.
Free Agent Signing: DE Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals - A really good fit here, as the Seahawks very much need some pass-rushing help. Lawson has been an excellent player for the Bengals and could find the chance to compete in the playoffs if he heads west for Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Bucs are another team that should explore the asking price for Darnold. While Brady is still winning his battle against time, it seems unrealistic to expect it to continue for too much longer. The Bucs could potentially land his heir apparent in Darnold.
Draft Pick: Christian Barmore, Alabama - Between Barmore and Daviyon Nixon, I think both have a case to make as DT1 in this class, but Barmore projects as a bit better fit to Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense than Nixon does. The Bucs add an impact defensive lineman to pair on the inside with Vita Vea, giving them flexibility in replacing Ndamukong Suh.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Tyus Bowser, Baltimore Ravens - The Bucs have a good chunk of cap space available, but will need to prioritize some re-signings like LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Thus, they may not have a lot of cash to throw out there after bringing back some of their own. Bowser is a good value to add as a rotational pass rusher, scoring some decent grades from PFF as a backup for Matt Judon and Yannick in Baltimore. An expanded role in Tampa could pay off for both sides.

Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Jacob Martin, Houston Texans - As sad as it is, Martin's 3 sacks in 2020 would have led the team for Tennessee. In a passing era, you need to get after the QB better than the Texans are doing. While team's are hesitant to trade within the division, the Texans should be more focused on acquiring picks to rebuild, which they could get by moving a decent rotational pass-rusher.
Draft Pick: OLB Joseph Ossai, Texas - Really the Titans should be focused on landing a high potential pass-rusher, and Ossai figures to be a hot name in that range. He's a springy pass rusher who can inject some life into one of the league's worst team's at getting to the QB.
Free Agent Signing: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - After a strong season in 2020, WR Corey Davis seems a bit unlikely to return, as he'll likely fetch more on the market than the Titans can afford to pay him. Thus, they should consider adding a veteran replacement to pair with budding star A.J. Brown at wide receiver.

Washington Football Team (7-9)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Another team I think should really make a push for Watson. It'll cost them at least a 2021 and 2022 first-round pick, along with probably another second and DT Jonathan Allen or some other player. It could definitely cost more than that! But Watson would solidify Washington as the top team in the NFC East for the next few years. With QB and DE locked in with Watson, Sweat, and Young, this could be a potential dynasty in the division.
Draft Pick: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - A potential second-round target, Washington should look to find a developmental tackle to eventually slot into their lineup. Morgan Moses and Cornelius Lucas were a solid pairing last year, but both are about to turn 30 years old, and Jenkins has a lot of potential. A year to develop before taking a spot in the starting lineup would ideal for everyone involved.
Free Agent Signing: WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions - Washington managed to build a passing attack out of Terry McLaurin and a handful of role players at RB and TE. While it worked in 2020, it does not seem very sustainable, as Washington should use its cap space to bring in a premier WR to pair with Terry McLaurin. Pairing up McLaurin's speed with Golladay's ability to go win contested balls is an ideal complementary pairing.
submitted by ksk63_ to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

$EGLX.to - Epic eSports stock about to uplist to the Nasdaq

TLDR; EGLX.to is the single best pure-eSports play in the world.

Look I have an incredible track record of getting lucky picking stocks in the new reddit dominated market (PLTR, U, AI, BB, etc) and I want to tell you all about my next big one: Enthusiast Gaming.
While our community has nearly quadrupled in size, I still believe EGLX is one of the most underappreciated plays out there.
Since writing my first DD on EGLX, a few things have transpired:
Get in before the Nasdaq listing if you like money.
Positions: I currently have 40% of my portfolio in Enthusiast Gaming.
I hope the mods don't mind, but I wanted to repost this DD I wrote about a month ago, because it seems like none of the noobs know about the Enthusiast Gaming eSports revolution. So here it is below:
---------------------------------------------------------
LINK to original post - POSTED JAN 6TH 2020:
Greetings friendos.
It's 12:20 AM where I live and since I can't sleep, I have decided to finally write a DD on Enthusiast Gaming that I have been thinking about for some time... EGLX is a stock that I believe can make you 5-20x gains in the next year. I have been watching this stock since like $1.50 during the darkest days of COVID, and I am kicking myself for not getting in until $4 just before Christmas. But I am now a proud shareholder preaching the gospel.
What the eff do I know?
For some background information on my own stock picking prowess and why my ideas might be worth considering, I previously wrote super early DD's on Palantir, Telos and C3ai before making money in all 3 of them. I have a large number of people who have sent me thank you messages on reddit for my DD's on those companies.
PLTR - I was in at 10.50 Telos - I was in at 20 C3ai - I was in at 95

As a final qualifying note, in addition to getting incredibly lucky at picking random stocks, I also work in the gaming and digital marketing spaces, and I believe that I am somewhat qualified to comment on the merits of an esports and influencer company such as EGLX.

Who the heck is Enthusiast Gaming?

Enthusiast Gaming is a giant network of websites, esports teams and streaming influencers in the gaming space. Actually, they proclaim to be the single largest esports platform in North America. As of yesterday, they have officially announced that all of their collective followings put them in the top 100 web companies operating in America. Note, the only downside here is that they are getting that number from a huge number of mid sized platforms, not one single super popular site like twitch or youtube.
>Source: https://www.enthusiastgaming.com/news/

Does anyone even watch video games?

Yes. They do and will continue to. Actually us North Americans are very late to the party. The League of Legends world championship is already as popular as the super bowl. These viewers are coming primarily from Asia.
>Facts: https://dotesports.com/league-of-legends/news/league-of-legends-vs-superbowl-viewer-numbers
Furthermore, the hyper focus on gaming as a cultural cornerstone is in fact coming to North America. I hope you don't actually need convincing on this point, but here is a fact for you:
Prior to COVID, studies were already showed that over 90% of all children in America were gaming in some capacity.
>Source: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/video-games-saints-or-psychopaths-082814#:~:text=More%20than%2090%20percent%20of%20American%20kids%20play%20video%20games,of%20Americans%20over%2050%20play.
Now for comparison, most of us now adults grew up while gaming became a thing. If you are a similar age to me, you know when we were growing up, it was like 20-40% of boys gamed, and maybe 1-5% of girls gamed. This dramatic cultural shift is staggering. Obviously, this trend has been solidified this year with COVID. These gamers will and are translating to not only playing, but also watching games. That's Amazon's Twitch platform is growing fast AF. Watching video games is big big big money.
>Twitch facts: https://www.businessinsider.com/twitch-viewership-grows-faster-than-previously-forecast-2020-9#:~:text=That's%20a%2026.2%25%20increase%20from,gaming%20streams%20are%20gaining%20popularity.&text=We%20forecast%20that%20the%20number,next%20year%2C%20to%2044.0%20million.

Who are their competitors?

Actually this is where I think it gets particularly interesting. As a huge gamer and esports believer, I have been looking to find esports investments, but having a real hard time finding pure esports plays. There aren't many companies out there to invest in that are strictly set to capitalize on esports. Frankly, most of the stocks I have found are seemingly doing dick all. I would encourage you to google esports companies. You will mostly find a bunch of garbo sounding companies that are somehow valued at $25m-$50m market cap, but their websites are broken and aren't even up-to-date. Really the only "esports" companies to invest in are the tech majors like Microsoft, Amazon, or Facebook, and the video game companies like Sony, Nintendo, ATVI, EA etc. Sure these are all great companies, but none of them are strictly focused on esports and none of them are new or cheap enough to turn into a ten bagger.
*** IF YOU ARE SKIMMING, THIS NEXT ARTICLE IS IMPORTANT**\*
Forbes recently released a report on the top 10 most valuable esports companies. Obviously, EGLX is on the list, or I wouldn't be mentioning it. But get this, EGLX is not only the ONLY publicly listed company that forbes identified, but they also have the highest revenue by a long shot.
>SORCERY: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinasettimi/2020/12/05/the-most-valuable-esports-companies-2020/?sh=2e4769ae73d0
EGLX is honestly positioned as the supreme pure esports play in the world right now.

Who the hell is leading this little company?

Well my number one most important metric when assessing a little random undiscovered company is who is captaining the ship? The best way to tell if a small cap stock is a scam or the real deal is to see who is involved. In fact, the biggest reason I chose to invest in the above mentioned companies was because of who was leading them (PLTR = Theil, C3.ai = microsoft ties and the dude from oracle, Telos = a former US general)
Good news of course, EGLX has an A+ grade with leadership legitimacy.
Adrian Montgomery, the former CEO of the Aquilini Sports and Entertainment (AKA THE VANCOUVER CANUCKS) is running EGLX. These guys are the real deal and they aren't fuckin about in some scam company. If they can run the Canucks, they can run an esports team.

But how do they profit?

EGLX does not own games or huge streaming platforms like twitch. So you may be wondering how they actually make money? INFLUENCER MARKETING. That's how. They are generating money through ad placements and influencer marketing on their huge platform. (And remember, they are in the top 100 US online companies in terms of reach.)
Facebook and Google are already soaking up ungodly amounts of money through online advertising and taking over the world. But paid ad placements only go so far. I don't know of a good source off hand, but I am telling you subjectively that influencer marketing is one of the "next big things". Companies are paying people with major social followings to review and talk about their shit. This is a very very big industry. I truly believe influencers are going to overtake hollywood and MSM. You shall see... No sources here. Pure opinion.

Is it actually making money?

Shit loads actually. This year EGLX is talking about increasing their total revenue from $9m last year to $120m this year for like a 1100% annual revenue increase. Obviously, if their proforma numbers turn out to be bogus the stock will collapse. But, referring to the fact that the owners of the Canucks are running this company, I am hoping we are not all being lied to and frauded out of our money.
https://www.enthusiastgaming.com/financial-statements/

How do you know I will make the tendies though?

***IF YOU ARE SKIMMING, ALSO READ THIS PART**\*
EGLX is currently trading at a $450m CAD or about $300M USD market cap. That is absolute peanuts compared to any other hype stock in the memesphere. With $120m annual revenue, that puts them at about a 3x price to sales ratio, which really isn't that bad at all for even a boring a blue chip. For a growth stock, it is extremely low.
But if you dig into their investor presentation, they are actually claiming they will raise their Revenue Per User from $0.40 to $3 in the next 2 years, or a nearly 750% revenue increase, not accounting for growth in the size of their social reach. If you include reach growth, it could be nearly 10 times revenue growth. By that point, the current market cap would be a fraction of their annual sales.
This stock is absurdly undervalued if the promises being made by the leadership come true.
>Go look: https://www.enthusiastgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/EG-Presentation-November-2020-Nov-27.pdf

Final Fun facts:

- They own the best Overwatch team.
- They own the Seattle Call of Duty team, which happens to be among the nerdiest cities in America.
- They claim to have the best Fortnite players, but idk that game is trash so I couldn't really say if it's true or not.
But wait there's more!
Saved the best info for last.
The stock tripled in the past month. Why?
Because EGLX is still only trading on the TSX and they have applied to list on the US stock exchange.
They have appointed KPMG as the auditor for the application, and having nice big reputable firm involved certainly increases the odds it will get approved. Furthermore, I actually emailed their investor relations folks and asked when they expect to hit the US markets. Surprisingly, they responded and told me they expect their application to be approved Q1 2021.
Once this puppy hits wallstreet, I see it breaking $1B USD in no time, which would be a 3x return. $3B-$5B doesn't seem unreasonable if the current market insanity persists through 2021.
We have the opportunity to get in on this company before those darned Americans pump it to the moon.
CANADIANS HAVE THE UPPER HAND IN THE STONK MARKET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OUR DAMN LIVES. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
--
PS: Risks. Risks. I think it's almost certain that these guys will issue more shares to raise some capital. They are kinda acting like the want to pump their own stock with unnecessary positive announcements, and honestly, they are pretty low on cash. Think they only have $9m on hand or something small like that. Too lazy to look it up again. Just watch out for dilution. My bet is that they will do it after listing on the US exchanges and mooning. But honestly I am not too worried in the long run because they need the cash to compete in this space.
PSS: More risks. If the us exchange application gets denied it will be bad bad news for my TFSA.
submitted by Troflecopter to Baystreetbets [link] [comments]

How to break Wall Street. And what to understand about GME and the markets.

Hey apes,
tl;dr Please read this whole post. This is how we can win and why Wall Street is so scared of us.
I've still got these diamond hands and I like GameStop even more. Why? Because our favorite company has received the biggest injection of consumer capital a brand has likely ever received. Our favorite company is literally the storefront battle line where the little guy is taking on Wall Street, won but got cheated out of victory, and has codified memes like "diamond hands" into a modern version of David vs Goliath. And we still just want to go to the moon. The rest of this post is going to explore 2 certainties: 1) we can go to the moon with GME, and would have already except for blatant market manipulation and fraud, so we have to recognize that this is a war and we have to innovate to get to the moon, and 2) it's actually really easy to go to the moon and we figured out the legal cheat code to get there.
Why do we know we can go to the moon with GME? Because Wall Street cheated to crash our rocket ship. But the important thing to recognize is that they crashed our rocket ship to the GME moon by shutting off consumer demand then colluding to flood supply and use short ladder attacks to impose a downward stock trend. But media pundits (who are paid by Wall Street interests) are saying "fundamentals" and presenting talk of "Reddit guys are the bad market influence video game players because they don't know what they're doing, like we do, the experts." No. Supply and demand. That's how the market functions at its most basic parts. We had them in a squeeze and they turned off demand because they have advance data that showed them how fucked they were if they didn't turn off our ability to buy more GME.
How do we know that supply and demand drives stock price? Let's assess recent trends that don't concern GME. Here are two examples off the top of my head:
  1. Signal Advance. One tweet from Elon Musk about using the Signal App drove people into a company not related to the Signal App. A small cap company that trades on the OTC (remember that for later - it's important for winning a war against short sellers while playing within the legality of market rules). A sudden demand for just 2 million shares of Signal Advance spiked the share price 5,643%... yes, demand of a small cap stock pushed a price up 5,643%. Demand. The thing Wall Street shut off when we were buying GME. Here's an article about Signal Advance. I think this moment is incredible information for us and it's worth a read to solidify the idea that supply and demand drives price.
https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/finance/musk-signal-advance/
2) Dogecoin. Again, Elon is providing us incredible information here. The exposure of and resulting demand for Dogecoin, even though the market cap is huuuuuuge and the cryptocurrency was actually intended as a joke, is driving the price through the roof. The last time I checked my dogecoins they went from fractions of a cent per coin to about 8 cents per coin. That is a huge gain based solely on consumer demand and psychological willingness to join into a meme attached to the perception of potentially life changing financial gains.
So what does this tell us about GME?
The squeeze isn't squoze, apes... here's some high level confirmation of this fact in an interview that u/rekoms12 alerted me to that is actually an attempt to say the squeeze already happened. This video is an interview with Ihor Dusaniwsky, the head guy at S3, the agency that has been blasting reports that short interests in GME covered, uses a statistical model that doesn't account for naked shorting as a possibility (he actually gives the game away by explaining how short selling is supposed to work considered with data of a GME short interest above 100%), and is paid by hedge funds for market data. Keep all of those things in mind.
Here's the link: https://youtu.be/22r48IVx7c8
As u/Rekoms12 observed, Ihor contradicts himself in the interview at a critical juncture. He says the upward movement of GME was retail demand, not a short squeeze. Supply and demand... But then he says that the squeeze happened at around $300, and then the price corrected. So was it a squeeze or not? And what's very telling to me is that Ihor and the interviewer don't talk about Robinhood and other brokerages artificially turning off consumer demand at the same time hedge funds turned up supply, the point when the price starts to dip.
What else do we know that's critical to understanding that the squeeze isn't squeeze?
We're getting gaslit with a mass media narrative that says GME is a bad investment. Because fundamentals... but let's dissect that:
  1. again, GameStop is literally the face and rallying point where we occupied and fucked with Wall Street in a real and serious way. So seriously that they cheated markets in broad view of the world. That is an injection of consumer capital and potential loyalty spending that has unfathomable value. The fact that none of the GME hit pieces mention the demand side market manipulation as the catalyst for a price drop or offer honest consideration of GameStop's new WORLD profile as the face of small consumers resisting rich assholes fucking us and our wives as a value add to the fundamentals definitely shows that they're lying.
  2. I've read reports that the real short report scheduled for February 9th will now be delayed until Feb 25th. Hmm. What that tells me is that they haven't settled their short positions at all. The greedy fucks actually, most likely, increased their short positions while they were cheating us. So why the delay? Simple. Their only out from the short squeeze is to turn market sentiment against GME, against us, and wait us out. It's a delay tactic. They think they can win a game of patience with us where they have an options deadline they're trapped in. They need us to let them out of the trap. But I'm no Portnoy because I have diamond hands.
  3. here's how bullshitty these pricks are actually being when they say their superior understanding of "fundamentals" justify them not letting us do what we want. This article is from Bloomberg. It is literally called "Is the Key to Beating the Market Written in the Stars?", stars by saying "Henry Weingarten invests his clients’ money by charting the movement of heavenly bodies," and includes line like:
By grounding astrology in the less mystical-sounding business cycle, Williams inspired a new generation of financial astrologers. The most decorated is Arch Crawford, 77. Mark Hulbert, a ranker of financial newsletters, has rated Crawford the country’s top stock market timer a number of times. One of his biggest wins came in 2008, when he essentially called the crash. Crawford, a veteran of Merrill Lynch & Co., nails his CNBC soundbites and comes off as only mildly eccentric when discussing his craft. “I have the moon on the midheaven in Capricorn, which means I gain the attention of people without trying,” he tells me. “I have been written up in all the best places.”
And the article gets deeper:
US MARKETS ARE ‘EASY’ IF YOU REMEMBER THAT TRUMP’S 2018 HOROSCOPE IS STELLAR
Here's the article; PLEASE READ IT to understand the truth of HOW FUCKING MANY (even places like Merril-Lynch!!!) HEDGE FUNDS INVEST AND JUDGE COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS BASED ON ASTROLOGY!!! And they're chastising retail traders ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS!!!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-27/is-the-key-to-beating-the-market-written-in-the-stars
Would you trust an astrologer to tell you what to do with your hedge fund and call it sound fundamentals. Please take the time to google how widespread "financial astrology" is on Wall Street. It really tells us how full of shit they are about GME fundamentals... I wish this was a joke. It's not. And, again, my hands are fucking diamond.
How do we win?
It's the Age of Aquarius, baby. I learned that on MarketWatch, though this isn't an official MarketWatch article, like the official Bloomberg article above:
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/age-of-aquarius-final-activation-on-december-21st-at-622-pm-utc-2020-12-14
And how does that help? It helps because of something we learned, the real thing Wall Street is so terrified of us figuring out because it breaks their short selling game: pump and dumps are illegal, but our diamond hands pump and pump strategy isn't regulated, and it's legal (and fyi, I trust diamond hands with my money way more than Tina, my wife's boyfriend's tarot card reademarket astrologer). How do we know pump and hold is legal? Two things:
  1. Here's the definition of Pump and Dump from Investopedia:
Pump-and-dump is a scheme that attempts to boost the price of a stock through recommendations based on false, misleading, or greatly exaggerated statements. The perpetrators of this scheme already have an established position in the company's stock and sell their positions after the hype has led to a higher share price. This practice is illegal based on securities law and can lead to heavy fines.
But what if you just say "I just like the stock. Want to like it with me and hold onto it with me because you have diamond fucking hands, you beautiful ape baby." Or what if you say, "I'm into this stock for the memes instead of the Wall Street star chart fundamentals." Or just "I don't care what you say about it. I like it and I want it and I'm keeping it." And what if you have that market perspective about a stock and identify some legitimate underlying potential in a stock like u/deepfuckingvalue saw in our favorite stock, GME, that now has a ride or die consumer base motivated by decades of getting fucked over because we finally figured out how to say, "Apes angry. Apes together strong. Game stop."
2) And to reconfirm that our Pump and Hold Diamond Hands (PHD-H) ape market strategy is legal, I got this Wall Street Journal article on Robinhood titled "GameStop frenzy is tough call for regulators focused on transparency"; here's the link:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gamestop-frenzy-is-tough-call-for-regulators-focused-on-transparency-11612693802
The key takeaway for me in this article is when a very important Wall Street astrologer says: “You can sell garbage to the public as long as you say to the public, ‘This is garbage and you’d be an idiot to buy it, but would you like to buy it?’” The Wall Street astrologer who said that is Harvey Pitt, a former SEC chairman. An SEC chairman told us that... WE FIGURED OUT THE CHEAT CODE APES. THE WAR WE'RE IN IS LITERALLY MARKET ASTROLOGY vs DIAMOND HANDS. AND WE HAVE THE ADVANTAGE BECAUSE WE CAN DO DIAMOND HANDED MEME PUMPS LEGALLY WHICH DISADVANTAGES HEDGE FUNDS IN SHORT POSITIONS. AND WE HAVE THEM TRAPPED IN SHORT POSITIONS!!!
They literally told us how to beat them at the market game.
How do we beat and humiliate Wall Street?
Let's fuk these fuckers who have humiliated and shamed us for not being educated like them over their GME manipulation while they're investing billions of dollars (maybe trillions) based on star charts.
As MarketWatch told us, it's the Age of Aquarius. And we're currently under Aquarius Zodiac sign. Something else I found out while researching for this post is that the Aquarius Zodiac is ruled by Saturn and Uranus. So let's ride a rocket together. Let's say/protest market cheating as a community and tell Wall Street: "it's Aquarius (which you know better than us because you're about fundies, not tendies), so we decided to ride a diamond hands rocket past Saturn and straight to Uranus."
Here's the small cap stock we can do this with:
Aquarius AI INC
As SEC chairman Harvey Pitt told us to do, I'm pretty sure this stock is complete garbage. I bought some because I'm an idiot. I literally bought this stock because I want to tell Wall Street "I rode an Aquarius rocket to Uranus, I fucked, then I rode the rocket back to earth.
That's the main reason I like the stock. Why else, though:
  1. Aquarius AI has AI in their name. This is definitely a stupid reason to like and buy this stock, but I made a few grand on Dogecoin stalking Papa Elon's Twitter, and he's so into AI that I think he's a robot. So this is for Elon.
  2. Aquarius AI is involved in E-Sports Betting. Here's an article about it:
https://www.aquariusai.ca/aquarius-ai-announces-transition-into-esports-betting-management-changes-private-placement-financing-and-proposed-shares-for-debt-transaction-2/
So this is definitely stupid because Wall Street told me liking GME with diamond hands is a dumb ape strategy (which it says in their star charts), but DraftKings made huge Super Bowl money, E-Sports is getting bigger and bigger, and Aquarius AI being involved in E-Sports Betting means it fits with my love (and future consumer spending habits) that are fixated on GameStop. Also, I'm on Reddit and play video games and Wall Street mocked me for that. In fact, I didn't even know I could bet on E-Sports!!! Fuck buying my wife's boyfriend more stamina crackers. I'm betting on Starcraft. So this is for elite video game players and GameStop.
3) Aquarius AI trades on the OTC. Why is that important? Because it's very uncommon for an OTC stock to get shorted, so it's largely outside the schemes Wall Street conspired with to cheat us out of GME tendies.
4) The CEO of Aquarius AI has crazy eyes. That's probably a stupider reason to invest than Trump's horoscope like that hedge fund manager in the Bloomberg article, right?
5) Aquarius AI trades for $0.07 right now, there are only 22.3M outstanding shares, and the market cap is only $1.5M. That's way easier to rocket with a PHD-H community investment strategy than Signal did after Elon's tweet. WAY EASIER!!! And this is also a totally stupid reason to invest in this garbage stock, but that makes it easier to ride an Aquarius rocket to Uranus, then back to Earth. And that sounds fun.
6) Also, I have diamond hands. I want to see how much I lose after the Aquarius AI peak so we can extrapolate real market research about the impact of turning of demand side for GME to halt price momentum. That's such a stupid idea it isn't even regulated because no one smart enough to regulate the markets has ever been stupid enough to want to do that. So... is it stupid to invest in a garbage stock to get less stupid? Definitely. You'd be stupid to invest. Are you stupid? I am.
7) Also, I just like the stock.
Apes, let's rocket the fuck out of Aquarius AI INC and mock these hedge fund cheaters. It's legal. And it's a legitimate protest. And I want us to be able to look back at this moment and say, "Diamond hands, Wall Street. You fucked us on GME. But we rode an Aquarius AI Rocket straight to Uranus, then we rode it back home, you astrology fundamental fucks."
Who's with me? I'm in. I'm staying in. Diamond Hands. It won't take many of us.
p.s. I know some of you apes will go full paper hands and jump off the Aquarius AI rocket at Mars, or wherever. But whatever. I'madvocating you be stupid enough to not profit from this Pump and Hold strategy about this garbage stock I like that I'm not selling. But if you're less stupid than that, I implore you to be so stupid that you reinvest you're Aquarius AI rocket tendies back in GME, for totally stupid reasons, like you just want to.
submitted by JessasaurusJames to DiamondHandsSociety [link] [comments]

A 10-step offseason plan to get the Giants back on track - The Athletic

The Giants have already started looking ahead to next season. But the offseason kicks into high gear now that the Super Bowl is over.
Once again, the Giants are trying to find a path back to contention. There were baby steps made during Joe Judge’s first season as head coach, but plenty of work remains.
Here’s my 10-step plan to get the Giants back on track: 1. Cut veterans to create salary cap space
The salary cap for 2021 hasn’t been set. The league and NFLPA agreed before last season that the cap can’t be lower than $175 million despite the revenue shortfall caused by COVID-19. The sides will negotiate on the actual number in the coming weeks, with ESPN reporting $180 million as likely. That would be $18 million less than the 2020 cap and much lower than the approximately $215 million teams were budgeting for before the pandemic hit.
The Giants currently have $181 million in cap commitments for 2021, so they’re clearly going to need to make moves to create space. Wide receiver Golden Tate, tackle Nate Solder and tight end Levine Toilolo are obvious cap casualties.
Tate’s four-year, $37.5 million contract looked like a mistake the moment it was signed in 2019. It looks even worse now after he had just 35 catches for 388 yards and two touchdowns in 2020. The 32-year-old has a $10.9 million cap hit for 2021. That’s far too much for a 32-year-old wide receiver who has been suspended for five games in his two seasons in New York. The Giants can create $6.1 million in cap savings while eating $4.7 million in dead money by cutting Tate.
The four-year, $62 million contract Solder signed in 2018 was another mistake. The financial implications of getting out of the deal were complicated by Solder’s decision to opt out of the 2020 season. That move pushed Solder’s contract back a year, and his cap hit for 2021 is $16.5 million. The Giants can create $6 million in cap savings while eating $10.5 million in dead money if they cut Solder. The cap impact would be the same if Solder retires.
There’s a possibility that the Giants could designate Solder as a June 1 cut. That would create $10 million in cap savings while leaving $6.5 million in dead money in 2021 and $4 million in dead money in 2022. The catch is that the $10 million in savings wouldn’t be available until June 1, well after the top free agents have signed.
It was a head-scratcher when the Giants gave Toilolo a two-year, $6.2 million contract with $3.2 million guaranteed last offseason. Cutting Toilolo, who made no impact as the No. 3 tight end, is a no-brainer since the Giants can create $2.95 million in cap savings with no dead money.
Those three moves would create $15.1 million in cap savings while leaving $15.2 million in dead money. The Giants could also cut linebacker David Mayo ($2.3 million cap savings, no dead money), cornerback Isaac Yiadom ($2.2 million cap savings, no dead money) and wide receiver Cody Core ($2 million cap savings, no dead money) to create another $6.5 million in cap space. But there’s value to having some veterans for depth, and those players can be cut at any time to create cap space.
2. Lower Kevin Zeitler’s cap hit
Right guard Kevin Zeitler has a $14.5 million cap hit for 2021. The Giants would create $12 million in cap savings with $2.5 million in dead money if they cut Zeitler. But it’s hard to imagine the Giants being comfortable going into 2021 with a Will Hernandez-Shane Lemieux pairing at guard.
The Giants could cut Zeitler and use part of the savings on a veteran replacement. But the best option may be giving Zeitler a modest extension to reduce his cap hit in 2021. The Giants could tear up the final year of Zeitler’s existing deal and give him a new three-year contract worth $27.075 million. That type of extension could cut Zeitler’s 2021 cap hit in half if the Giants reduce his salary to the $1.075 million league minimum and give him a $12 million signing bonus. Here’s a back-of-the-napkin look at this projected contract:
Projected Zeitler ExtensionSALARYSB PRORATIONCAP HIT2021$1.075M$6.5M$7.575M2022$6M$4M$10M2023$8M$4M$12M
This extension would make Zeitler’s 2021 cap hit $7.575 million, creating $6.925 million in cap savings to spend this offseason. The Giants would have a strong commitment to Zeitler in 2022 ($8 million dead money if cut) and then could cut ties with just $4 million in dead money in 2023.
The appeal for Zeitler, who turns 31 in March, is that he’d get $13.075 million guaranteed (2021 salary and signing bonus). It’s unlikely that he’d get that much on the open market if cut by the Giants this offseason.
For the Giants, an extension would allow them to create some cap space without compromising their offensive line.
3. Extend Jabrill Peppers
Longtime readers know I’m a strong proponent of extending players early. Safety Jabrill Peppers is due $6.8 million in 2021 on his fifth-year option. He made $10.3 million in the first four years of his rookie contract. Peppers likely would be receptive to a long-term deal that offers guaranteed money, while teams can typically get a discount if they extend a player early since it eliminates the risk of injury in the contract year.
Safeties Tre Boston and Vonn Bell signed three-year, $18 million contracts last offseason. Those are comparable players, so a similar deal would be fair for Peppers. Here’s what a three-year extension with $18 million in new money, including an $8 million signing bonus, could look like:
Projected Peppers ExtensionSALARYSB PRORATIONCAP HIT2021$990K$2M$2.99M2022$4M$2M$6M2023$6M$2M$8M2024$6M$2M$8M
Peppers would get a total of $13 million guaranteed if his 2021 and 2022 salaries were guaranteed in addition to the signing bonus. Meanwhile, his 2021 cap hit would decrease to $3 million, creating nearly $4 million in cap savings to be used this offseason.
Perhaps Peppers would reject this type of offer and bet on himself to boost his value in 2021. The Giants certainly shouldn’t break the bank for him. It would only be worth doing an early extension if they get solid value. But it’s worth exploring, as cap space is at a premium this offseason and Peppers’ price tag will only increase with another strong season.
4. Make offensive changes
All signs point toward the Giants bringing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett back for a second season. But there needs to be changes offensively beyond the personnel. Judge and his staff are undergoing an extensive self-scouting process this offseason.
The Giants need to adopt some of the tactics found in the league’s best offenses — more pre-snap motion, more deep passes, route combinations that free up receivers, etc. The return of a healthy Saquon Barkley, the acquisition of playmakers and an improved line will help the offense. But the Giants need to scheme more explosive plays in 2021.
5. Explore trades for Evan Engram
The Giants shouldn’t dump Engram, but they should at least consider a trade due to his $6 million cap hit after a disappointing 2020 season. Engram doesn’t seem like a long-term fit, so the Giants should see if they can get a mid-round pick in a trade (which could be used on a two-way tight end).
It would be tough to eliminate one of the team’s few offensive weapons, but Engram’s inconsistency was a detriment in 2020, and the Giants should replace his production by making other upgrades this offseason. The Giants reportedly received multiple inquiries for Engram at the trade deadline but would only listen if a team offered a first-round pick. They should lower their asking price and see if they can get a Day 2 pick for Engram.
6. Re-sign Leonard Williams
The Giants really have no choice but to re-sign Williams. They gave up a pair of mid-round picks to acquire Williams during the 2019 season and then paid him $16.1 million on the franchise tag in 2020. Williams delivered a monster 11.5-sack season in 2020, so the Giants need to lock him up since their faith in his talent has been rewarded.
It would be preferable to avoid another franchise tag since that would guarantee Williams $19.3 million in 2021 and set a floor for an annual salary in negotiations for a long-term deal. But Williams’ performance likely drove his market into that range anyway, so the Giants could begrudgingly tag him again if extension talks stall before the March 7 tag deadline.
The Giants run the risk of a team blowing Williams away with an offer if he reaches the open market. The tag essentially maintains exclusive negotiating rights for the Giants, and both sides should be more open to a long-term deal than they were a year ago. A four-year, $80 million contract should work for Williams and the Giants.
7. Let Dalvin Tomlinson walk
The time to re-sign Dalvin Tomlinson was last offseason, when the defensive tackle became eligible for an extension entering the final year of his rookie contract. Tomlinson’s price tag increased with another strong season, as he’ll likely command around $13 million per year.
The Giants have to decide if they can afford to pay top dollar for two defensive linemen with another, Dexter Lawrence, due for a big payday in the near future. Tough decisions need to be made, especially on a roster with so many holes, so the Giants should let Tomlinson walk and hope the defensive line can remain a strength with Williams, Lawrence and B.J. Hill.
The Giants don’t have any other pressing decisions with their own free agents. It would be nice to re-sign Wayne Gallman as the No. 2 running back, but he likely earned a shot at a larger role elsewhere. The Giants should re-sign long snapper Casey Kreiter, while quarterback Colt McCoy, tackle Cameron Fleming, defensive tackle Austin Johnson and outside linebacker Kyler Fackrell could return in backup roles if the price is right.
8. Sign a top WR, then bargain hunt in free agency
The Giants need to upgrade their wide receiver corps, but it’s hard to envision them outbidding other receiver-needy teams with mountains of cap space for the top options (Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin). That doesn’t mean the Giants should sit out a free agent wide receiver class that has some appealing second-tier options.
Tennessee’s Corey Davis is a 26-year-old former No. 5 overall pick coming off the best season of his career. The Giants would be betting on Davis reaching a higher ceiling than the other options in this group. Curtis Samuel was a 2017 second-round pick by Giants general manager Dave Gettleman in Carolina. The 24-year-old had 77 catches for 851 yards and 41 carries for 200 yards in 2020. Samuel isn’t the prototypical No. 1 receiver the Giants need, but he can be an explosive playmaker in a creative offense. There are some older, proven options, such as Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton and Detroit’s Marvin Jones, while Nelson Agholor, who averaged 18.7 yards per catch for the Raiders last season, could be an affordable big-play threat.
Those names may not excite fans, but adding a quality wide receiver will give the Giants flexibility in the draft. They can take a top wide receiver if one is available with the 11th pick, but they’ll also have the freedom to take a player at another position if they’ve already added a receiver in free agency.
Spending on a receiver and re-signing Williams will take a big bite out of the Giants’ cap space. The best course then would be bargain hunting to fill their other holes — edge rusher, No. 2 cornerback, offensive line. There may be more options than usual since other teams will need to make cuts to get under the cap.
The Giants landed Logan Ryan on a one-year, $6.5 million contract last summer after the safety’s market didn’t develop as he hoped. There should be more players who opt for one-year deals this offseason in the hopes of cashing in when the cap presumably increases significantly in 2022. Being patient could pay off with good value after the first wave of free agency passes.
9. Draft best player available at No. 11
The “benefit” of the numerous holes on the Giants roster is they can take the best player available with the 11th pick and fill a need in the process. They’re not in a spot where they only need to fill one hole, so they can have an open mind entering the draft.
There will be clamoring for a wide receiver at No. 11, and that’s a logical avenue, assuming one of the top three prospects (LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, Alabama’s Devonta Smith or Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle) are available. But that’s where signing a quality wide receiver in free agency gives the Giants flexibility. The Giants won’t need to draft a receiver if a top player at another position falls into their laps at No. 11, but they’d have the option to double up at receiver in free agency and the draft to give the offense a major jolt.
Florida tight end/receiver Kyle Pitts is a wild card who could be the game-changing weapon Engram was supposed to be. Top cornerbacks Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech) and Patrick Surtain (Alabama) will be appealing if they’re available. Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons could be an athletic playmaker to lift the defense to new heights if he slides out of the top 10. The offensive line remains an unfinished product, so Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater could be an option. There aren’t any strong edge rusher candidates for the 11th pick now, but that could change over the next three months as teams get more familiar with prospects.
Whichever position the Giants address in the first round (my hunch is wide receiver based on the front office’s public emphasis on adding playmakers), they can fill other holes in the middle rounds. Their second-round pick might be the sweet spot to land an edge player who can step into a rotation as a rookie. The Giants could use a “traditional” tight end, offensive line depth, a defensive tackle if Tomlinson leaves and a cornerback later in the draft if they take a wide receiver and edge rusher with their first two picks.
10. Exercise Saquon Barkley’s fifth-year option
Picking up Barkley’s fifth-year option for 2022 is an easy decision. It should cost around $8 million and will be fully guaranteed when it’s exercised.
The Giants should table any extension talks unless Barkley is spooked by his torn ACL and desperate for long-term security. That’s unlikely considering his four-year, $31.2 million rookie contract is fully guaranteed and he has significant off-field earnings.
Ideally, the Giants will have the discipline to take things year-to-year with Barkley since so many teams have regretted handing premature extensions to running backs. The fifth-year option will give the Giants another year of control over Barkley’s services.
If the Giants follow this plan, they’ll create roughly $26 million cap savings for 2021 by cutting Tate, Solder and Toilolo, and extending Zeitler and Peppers. That’s more than enough to re-sign Williams and a receiver like Davis. The leftovers can be spent on filling holes with bargains.
I don’t love that this plan doesn’t add a premier edge rusher, but the Giants can’t fill every hole in one offseason, especially with the reduced cap. Veteran edge rushers always seem to be available for one-year deals, so that’s a position the Giants can address that way and with a Day 2 pick. A similar approach could work at cornerback and right tackle.
Judge doesn’t want to cut corners in the rebuild, so the Giants need to keep an eye on the long-term. Spending wisely and drafting well should help the Giants take another step closer to contending.
submitted by cornbread36 to G101SafeHaven [link] [comments]

$EGLX.to - Enthusiast Gaming will make you rich.

Greetings friendos.
It's 12:20 AM where I live and since I can't sleep, I have decided to finally write a DD on Enthusiast Gaming that I have been thinking about for some time... EGLX is a stock that I believe can make you 5-20x gains in the next year. I have been watching this stock since like $1.50 during the darkest days of COVID, and I am kicking myself for not getting in until $4 just before Christmas. But I am now a proud shareholder preaching the gospel.

What the eff do I know?

For some background information on my own stock picking prowess and why my ideas might be worth considering, I previously wrote super early DD's on Palantir, Telos and C3ai before making money in all 3 of them. I have a large number of people who have sent me thank you messages on reddit for my DD's on those companies.
>PLTR - I was in at 10.50 > >Telos - I was in at 20 > >C3ai - I was in at 95
As a final qualifying note, in addition to getting incredibly lucky at picking random stocks, I also work in the gaming and digital marketing spaces, and I believe that I am somewhat qualified to comment on the merits of an esports and influencer company such as EGLX.

Who is heck is Enthusiast Gaming?

Enthusiast Gaming is a giant network of websites, esports teams and streaming influencers in the gaming space. Actually, they proclaim to be the single largest esports platform in North America. As of yesterday, they have officially announced that all of their collective followings put them in the top 100 web companies operating in America. Note, the only downside here is that they are getting that number from a huge number of mid sized platforms, not one single super popular site like twitch or youtube.
>Source: https://www.enthusiastgaming.com/news/

Does anyone even watch video games?

Yes. They do and will continue to. Actually us North Americans are very late to the party. The League of Legends world championship is already as popular as the super bowl. These viewers are coming primarily from Asia.
>Facts: https://dotesports.com/league-of-legends/news/league-of-legends-vs-superbowl-viewer-numbers
Furthermore, the hyper focus on gaming as a cultural cornerstone is in fact coming to North America. I hope you don't actually need convincing on this point, but here is a fact for you:
Prior to COVID, studies were already showed that over 90% of all children in America were gaming in some capacity.
>Source: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/video-games-saints-or-psychopaths-082814#:~:text=More%20than%2090%20percent%20of%20American%20kids%20play%20video%20games,of%20Americans%20over%2050%20play.
Now for comparison, most of us now adults grew up while gaming became a thing. If you are a similar age to me, you know when we were growing up, it was like 20-40% of boys gamed, and maybe 1-5% of girls gamed. This dramatic cultural shift is staggering. Obviously, this trend has been solidified this year with COVID. These gamers will and are translating to not only playing, but also watching games. That's Amazon's Twitch platform is growing fast AF. Watching video games is big big big money.
>Twitch facts: https://www.businessinsider.com/twitch-viewership-grows-faster-than-previously-forecast-2020-9#:~:text=That's%20a%2026.2%25%20increase%20from,gaming%20streams%20are%20gaining%20popularity.&text=We%20forecast%20that%20the%20number,next%20year%2C%20to%2044.0%20million.

Who are their competitors?

Actually this is where I think it gets particularly interesting. As a huge gamer and esports believer, I have been looking to find esports investments, but having a real hard time finding pure esports plays. There aren't many companies out there to invest in that are strictly set to capitalize on esports. Frankly, most of the stocks I have found are seemingly doing dick all. I would encourage you to google esports companies. You will mostly find a bunch of garbo sounding companies that are somehow valued at $25m-$50m market cap, but their websites are broken and aren't even up-to-date. Really the only "esports" companies to invest in are the tech majors like Microsoft, Amazon, or Facebook, and the video game companies like Sony, Nintendo, ATVI, EA etc. Sure these are all great companies, but none of them are strictly focused on esports and none of them are new or cheap enough to turn into a ten bagger.
*** IF YOU ARE SKIMMING, THIS NEXT ARTICLE IS IMPORTANT**\*
Forbes recently released a report on the top 10 most valuable esports companies. Obviously, EGLX is on the list, or I wouldn't be mentioning it. But get this, EGLX is not only the ONLY publicly listed company that forbes identified, but they also have the highest revenue by a long shot.
>SORCERY: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinasettimi/2020/12/05/the-most-valuable-esports-companies-2020/?sh=2e4769ae73d0
EGLX is honestly positioned as the supreme pure esports play in the world right now.

Who the hell is leading this little company?

Well my number one most important metric when assessing a little random undiscovered company is who is captaining the ship? The best way to tell if a small cap stock is a scam or the real deal is to see who is involved. In fact, the biggest reason I chose to invest in the above mentioned companies was because of who was leading them (PLTR = Theil, C3.ai = microsoft ties and the dude from oracle, Telos = a former US general)
Good news of course, EGLX has an A+ grade with leadership legitimacy.
Adrian Montgomery, the former CEO of the Aquilini Sports and Entertainment (AKA THE VANCOUVER CANUCKS) is running EGLX. These guys are the real deal and they aren't fuckin about in some scam company. If they can run the Canucks, they can run an esports team.

But how do they profit?

EGLX does not own games or huge streaming platforms like twitch. So you may be wondering how they actually make money? INFLUENCER MARKETING. That's how. They are generating money through ad placements and influencer marketing on their huge platform. (And remember, they are in the top 100 US online companies in terms of reach.)
Facebook and Google are already soaking up ungodly amounts of money through online advertising and taking over the world. But paid ad placements only go so far. I don't know of a good source off hand, but I am telling you subjectively that influencer marketing is one of the "next big things". Companies are paying people with major social followings to review and talk about their shit. This is a very very big industry. I truly believe influencers are going to overtake hollywood and MSM. You shall see... No sources here. Pure opinion.

Is it actually making money?

Shit loads actually. This year EGLX is talking about increasing their total revenue from $9m last year to $120m this year for like a 1100% annual revenue increase. Obviously, if their proforma numbers turn out to be bogus the stock will collapse. But, referring to the fact that the owners of the Canucks are running this company, I am hoping we are not all being lied to and frauded out of our money.
https://www.enthusiastgaming.com/financial-statements/

How do you know I will make the tendies though?

***IF YOU ARE SKIMMING, ALSO READ THIS PART**\*
EGLX is currently trading at a $450m CAD or about $300M USD market cap. That is absolute peanuts compared to any other hype stock in the memesphere. With $120m annual revenue, that puts them at about a 3x price to sales ratio, which really isn't that bad at all for even a boring a blue chip. For a growth stock, it is extremely low.
But if you dig into their investor presentation, they are actually claiming they will raise their Revenue Per User from $0.40 to $3 in the next 2 years, or a nearly 750% revenue increase, not accounting for growth in the size of their social reach. If you include reach growth, it could be nearly 10 times revenue growth. By that point, the current market cap would be a fraction of their annual sales.
This stock is absurdly undervalued if the promises being made by the leadership come true.
>Go look: https://www.enthusiastgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/EG-Presentation-November-2020-Nov-27.pdf

Final Fun facts:

- They own the best Overwatch team.
- They own the Seattle Call of Duty team, which happens to be among the nerdiest cities in America.
- They claim to have the best Fortnite players, but idk that game is trash so I couldn't really say if it's true or not.

But wait there's more!

Saved the best info for last.
The stock tripled in the past month. Why?
Because EGLX is still only trading on the TSX and they have applied to list on the US stock exchange.
They have appointed KPMG as the auditor for the application, and having nice big reputable firm involved certainly increases the odds it will get approved. Furthermore, I actually emailed their investor relations folks and asked when they expect to hit the US markets. Surprisingly, they responded and told me they expect their application to be approved Q1 2021.
Once this puppy hits wallstreet, I see it breaking $1B USD in no time, which would be a 3x return. $3B-$5B doesn't seem unreasonable if the current market insanity persists through 2021.
We have the opportunity to get in on this company before those darned Americans pump it to the moon.
CANADIANS HAVE THE UPPER HAND IN THE STONK MARKET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OUR DAMN LIVES. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
--
PS: Risks. Risks. I think it's almost certain that these guys will issue more shares to raise some capital. They are kinda acting like the want to pump their own stock with unnecessary positive announcements, and honestly, they are pretty low on cash. Think they only have $9m on hand or something small like that. Too lazy to look it up again. Just watch out for dilution. My bet is that they will do it after listing on the US exchanges and mooning. But honestly I am not too worried in the long run because they need the cash to compete in this space.
PSS: More risks. If the us exchange application gets denied it will be bad bad news for my TFSA.
--
It's now 1:12 AM. I hope my loss of sleep makes someone money. Do something nice with your gains in my honour.
submitted by Troflecopter to Baystreetbets [link] [comments]

Hey - One person believes we could win it all next year. That's something, right?

[ Removed by reddit in response to a copyright notice. ]
submitted by cornbread36 to G101SafeHaven [link] [comments]

Deep Dive into Apollo Healthcare (AHC.TO) - The Healing is Over; Now Primed For a Rapid Rise

Deep Dive into Apollo Healthcare (AHC.TO) - The Healing is Over; Now Primed For a Rapid Rise

The Basics:

Ticker Symbol: AHC (trades on the TSX)
Share Price: $4.89
Shares Outstanding: 73,724,896
Market Cap: $360.5 million
TTM Revenue: $276.3 million
P/E Ratio: 6.61

In The Beginning

There are actually two origin stories here, that of Apollo Health and Beauty Care, and the other of Acasta Enterprises.
Apollo Health and Beauty
Founded in 1993 by brothers Richard and Charles Wachsberg, Apollo develops and manufactures retailer-branded and private label products for major North American retailers. Apollo’s products are sold in tens of thousands of stores across North America and its customer base spans across major North American grocery, drug, and mass merchandise retailers, as well as wholesale clubs. Supported by industry leading R&D, Apollo’s premium private label health and beauty care products deliver value-added retail branded alternatives as well as custom product solutions for global retailers. In addition to private label, Apollo also manufactures products on a contract basis for many of its clients.
Led by the Wachsberg brothers Apollo grew from a small private label company operating exclusively in the Canadian market to one one of the largest private label personal care product manufacturers in North America. From 2013 to 2016 Apollo showed consistent revenue and earnings growth as can be seen in the table below:

2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue 133,470,000 148,798,000 167,777,000 179,188,000
Gross Profit 21,813,000 30,817,000 43,757,000 59,328,000
Operating Profit 2,168,000 7,823,000 20,498,000 37,057,000
Adjusted EDITDA 6,350,000 12,372,000 25,008,000 40,091,000

Gross margins expanded from 16.3% in 2013 to 33.1% in 2016 and Operating Profit increased from 1.6% to 20.7% of revenue clearly demonstrating economies of scale.

Acasta Enterprises
There was a time not too long ago when SPACs were not part of the average retail investor's lexicon. In fact before Acasta Enterprises IPO'd in 2015 there had not been a single SPAC ever listed on the TSX. As a blank check company, Acasta’s original investors included former bank executives Gord Nixon and Rick Waugh, Air Canada CEO Calin Rovinescu and former Magna CEO Belinda Stronach. Acasta initially raised $350 million at C$10/share in July, 2015. Its objective was to execute a qualifying acquisition on favourable terms such that the initial investors could reap a significant return on their investment.
In 2016 Acasta ended up purchasing three companies, each through a combination of cash and shares. The three companies were; 1) JemPak, a private label manufacturer and distributer of laundry and dish cleaning products; 2) Stellwagen, a financial services provider of asset management, technical management, and fleet and capital financing solutions to the global aviation industry; and 3) Apollo Health and Beauty Care
Apollo was the largest of the three acquisitions, valued at $397.2 million. The consideration was paid through the issuance of $159.3 million in cash and 23.4 million shares valued at $10. The other two acquisitions were not insignificant, Jempak costing $134.4 million and Stellwagen, $389.6 million.
Following the acquisitions Acasta had 3 cash generating units with impressive growth profiles. It also inherited a lot of debt, mostly tied to Stellwagen.

Fall From Grace

Acasta debuted on the TSX in July 2015 with a share price of $10. On January 4, 2017, Acasta closed its three qualifying transactions along with a concurrent private placement raising another $160 million at $10/share. It estimated its post-acquisition NAV to be in the range of $11.43-$14.45. On January 6th, 2017, its share price closed right on $10.
In July 2017 with its share price floundering, Acasta shook up its board of directors, replacing a couple of the founding investors. Other founding investors sold their shares to the new board members.
On January 5, 2018, exactly one year after closing its acquisitions, Acasta's share price was now $5.75. The heavyweight investors, the who's-who of Canadian executive suites, and the ones who had not already disposed of their shares, had now lost over 40% of their invested capital. While the Wachsberg brothers retained their shares and kept toiling away at Apollo, the executive team at Acasta, headed by CEO Anthony Melman, was slowly driving Acasta into the ground. Debt at Stellwagen was becoming unmanageable and the banks were calling. The newly formed board of directors had no choice but to initiate a strategic review.
On March 16, 2018, Acasta's share price closed at $2. The next day they announced they had entered into a definitive agreement to sell Stellwagen back to its original owners. In return the original owners would return their shares to Acasta along with a $35 million cash consideration.
On June 1, 2018, Acasta completed the sale of JemPak for cash consideration of $115 million - a discount to Acasta's original purchase price but nowhere near as bad as the Stellwagen sale.
On June 5, 2018, Acasta's share price closed at $1.60. It had retained one remaining operating subsidiary - Apollo Health and Beauty Care.

As for Apollo Health and Beauty Care, following a banner 2016 and four years of strong growth, Apollo, like Stellwagen and like JemPak, underperformed under the Acasta umbrella.

2016 2017
Revenue 179,188,000 173,586,000
Gross Profit 59,328,000 54,950,000
Operating Profit 37,057,000 8,838,000

In 2017 SG&A expenses at Apollo ballooned to $46,112,000, eating into the operating profit. It didn't really make sense having a corporate suite running Apollo and then another corporate suite at Acasta in charge of them. Further, Apollo had no way to service their debt or acquire cheap financing to improve efficiencies as the parent company was nearing default. Being completely at the mercy of Acasta, operations at Apollo were beginning to deteriorate. There was also an increased pressure to grow revenue at all costs, shifting the focus from operational efficiency and margin expansion to the top line only. As a result Acasta recorded an impairment loss of $200.7 million at Apollo. This was recognized and allocated entirely to goodwill. Acasta had determined that the estimated recoverable amount of the Apollo unit was $147.3 million as at December 31, 2017, a far cry from the $397 million they paid to purchase Apollo just under 2 years ago.

Purgatory

The deteriorating operating results at Apollo and the schizophrenic leadership at Acasta corporate portended a dismal fiscal 2018. But at least the picture was becoming clearer. With one operating subsidiary (and it was for the time being still cash flow positive) and a potentially manageable debt load there was some hope that the ship could be righted. But it required an overhaul of both the executive suite and the balance sheet.
Acasta Restructuring
The financials for 2018 were horrible as the focus was still on volume over margin. Overall there were significant changes in product mix in 2018 compared to 2017 with more units of body wash and hair care products sold at a lower margin in 2018 and fewer soap and hand cream sales with a decline in margin on those products as well.

2017 2018
Revenue 173,586,000 176,717,000
Gross Profit 54,950,000 17,633
Operating Profit 8,838,000 -30,376,000

Operations at Apollo were clearly in disarray. Part of the operating loss was due to a $10.9 million inventory provision for raw materials and various finished goods. There was also $4 million in professional fees due to restructuring the corporate entity. The Wachsberg brothers clearly were not happy as their company was doomed to failure under the current corporate structure.
On December 21, 2018, Acasta agreed with Charles Wachsberg and Richard Wachsberg to replace the Board of Directors. The current Board and the Wachsbergs were not able to agree on strategy going forward and, accordingly, Geoff Beattie, Robert Schwartz and Jay Swartz stepped down as Acasta directors and Ian Kidson stepped down as Interim CEO and director.
Stan Bharti, Carlo LiVolsi, Jeffrey Spiegelman, Richard Wachsberg and Charles Wachsberg joined the Board and the new Board appointed the Wachsbergs as co-CEO’s of Acasta.

Balance Sheet Cleansing
More necessary tweaking was applied to the balance sheet. After the second quarter of 2018 the company recorded goodwill and intangible assets impairment at Apollo totaling $79.8 million as a result of a decline in forecasted sales, reduction in profit margins, and increased inventory costs and operating expenses expected. After the fourth quarter, a further impairment loss of $26.5 million was recognized on the intangible asset. Goodwill was wiped out and the only intangible assets left were customer relationships valued at $29 million. Debt was $74 million and shareholder equity was pretty much zeroed, barely positive at $11 million.
Exiting 2018, the picture had become even more clear. Acasta was no longer. The company, which consisted solely of Apollo, was now back in control of its founders, the Wachsbergs. A new strategy would be put into place, one that focused on streamlining operations by increasing margins through favourable product mix and factory optimization, and eliminating the corporate bloat and misguided directives.
On December 31, 2018, the share price closed at $0.90 on 500 volume. Nobody cared. The only ones left in the building were the Wachsbergs and their 23.4 million shares

Resurrection

A fresh start and some more housecleaning. On January 2, 2019, an aggregate of 5,221,020 Class B Shares held by the original founders of the Company and certain transferees, were forfeited and cancelled by the Company for no consideration. The forfeiture and cancellation reduced the Company’s outstanding share count to 64,994,278 Class B Shares. The Wachsbergs now owned 36% of the company.
And operating results were turning around. After the first quarter of 2019, the company reported that its efforts to rationalize expenses combined with the realization of production efficiencies resulted in a return to profitability in the three months ended March 31, 2019. It was a small one with operating profit at $700 thousand but it was at least a move in the right direction
Shareholders began to perk up too. In February the Wachsbergs wanted to retire about $4.8 million in debt that was owed to them. They issued themselves shares at a discount to the market price. But two large institutional shareholders took offence and began legal proceedings forcing Apollo to rescind the transaction. No doubt there was some skepticism regarding the new leadership and direction of the company. At the annual general meeting over 30% of shares voted were withheld, a sure sign of dissatisfaction. But at least shareholders were finally starting to care.
In July 2019 the Wachsbergs came back with a new plan for refinancing the debt. This was a better plan. Instead of retiring their own debt they increased their funding. In effect WFI Inc., a finance company controlled by the co-CEOs of the Corporation, repaid $15,465,417 of outstanding debt on the Corporation’s existing commercial bank facility. WFI would now hold an aggregate of approximately $29.5 million of secured subordinated debt of the Corporation. Most notably the WFI Debt Reduction Funding shall be interest-free and fee free for the six month term of the loan.
In addition to providing Apollo an interest free loan to pay off their bank facility, the Wachsbergs also subscribed for another 5.43 million shares in a private placement. This time a group of large shareholders also came along for the ride, subscribing for 1.4 million shares. Now holding 29.75 million shares combined, the Wachsbergs interest in Apollo climbed to 40%.
After a positive first quarter, the rest of 2019 pretty much flatlined. Despite operating profit being slightly in the negative, EBITDA was positive $11.3 million. Most importantly gross profit returned to 23.7% of revenue.

2017 2018 2019
Revenue 173,586,000 176,717,000 167,148,000
Gross Profit 54,950,000 17,633 39,597,000
Operating Profit 8,838,000 -30,376,000 -1,663,000

Other one time expenses for the year included higher professional fees due to continued optimization of its corporate structure. There was also $3.1 million in incentives paid out in the 4th quarter awarding executives for operational improvement and the restructuring of its debt.
The share price did not respond to the improved operations. It began the year at $0.90 and finished the year at $0.57. This was clearly turning into a "Show Me" story. Apollo had risen from the dead, now walking the earth, but to where?

The Promised Land

Here's the thing: 80% of Apollo's sales have traditionally come from hand soap and sanitizer. These products are also their highest margin products. They supply these products through private label deals with some of North America's largest retailers, solid relationships they have had for years. It was just a matter of connecting the dots when COVID began ravaging the world back in February/March. But no one was making the connection. Apollo was still trading under the name "Acasta Enterprises" and the stock had been pretty much written off a couple years ago.
Even when Apollo released their first quarter earnings on April 27th of this year there was only a muted reaction (just enough for it to rebound off its March lows and return to where it began the year). But all the signs were there:

  • Revenues were $46.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020 compared with $41.5 million in the comparative period. The higher revenue is the result of higher volumes sold of the Company’s products.
  • EBITDA was $8.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020 compared with EBITDA of $5.8 million in the comparative period. The improved EBITDA reflects management’s efforts to focus on more profitable product mix as well as higher volumes sold of the Company’s products.
  • Debt totalled $57.9 million at March 31, 2020 compared with $65.7 million at December 31, 2019. The Company applied the cash generated from the Q1 2020 earnings to reduce indebtedness.

Higher volumes of product solid, good margins, and generated $8 million in cash to reduce debt. And whatever positive effects COVID had on their sales only would have been realized in the last couple of weeks of the quarter as the quarter as the quarter ended March 31st.

The Ascent
There's a saying that goes, "follow the insiders." Carlo LiVolsi, a director of Apollo, bought approximately 2.5 million shares on the public market between March 13th and May 29th. The Wachsbergs each bought over 2 million shares carried out through private transactions in April and May. And yet on August 11th the share price closed at $0.70, barely up from where it was at the beginning of the year.
After market close on August 11th Apollo (still known as Acasta) reported their results for the quarter ending June 30:

  • Revenues were $97.8 million and $144.4 million compared with $40.4 million and $82 million in the comparative period. The increase in revenue resulted from higher volumes of sales of the Company's products. The Company augmented existing customer demand and attracted new customers for its cleanser and sanitizer products.
  • EBITDA of $30.1 million and $38.5 million compared with EBITDA of $3.6 million and $9.4 million in the comparative periods.
  • The Company repaid $29.4 million of debt during the six months ended June 30, 2020. In July 2020, the Company further repaid the residual $2.5 million outstanding under its loan from WFI Inc. Currently, the only remaining debt of the Company is its commercial bank credit facility in the amount of approximately $29.1 million.

The share price opened on August 12th at $1.02 and closed at $1.89.
Apollo continued working behind the scenes to more clearly delineate the corporate identity. On August 19th they finally rid themselves of Acasta Enterprises by officially changing their name to Apollo Healthcare. Positive momentum continued to build. On November 5th, the last trading day before Apollo announced their Q3 results, the share price was $3.50.

Results for Q3 were:

  • Revenue for the third quarter of 2020 was $90.1-million and $234.5-million year to date compared with $43.4-million and $125.4-million in the comparative 2019 periods.
  • Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for the third quarter of 2020 were $31.1-million and $69.6-million year to date compared with EBITDA of $3.5-million and $13-million in the comparative 2019 periods.
  • The company retired all debt during the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2020.

Again the share price has responded positively with it closing at $4.89 on December 11th. So what are the real factors that have led to these increased earnings?

1) Increased Sales
Apollo no longer gives a breakdown of their product sales but historically around 80% of their sales have been of hand wash and sanitizer products. Over the years Apollo has established strong relationships with many of the leading retailers. Retailers would prefer to deal with a single manufacturer as it increases their own profit margin. They also prefer dealing with manufacturers who can provide a quick turnaround on new product development and increase their supply at a moments notice. Apollo fits all these criteria. So when it came time in February/March for retailers to ramp up supply to meet customer demand for personal care products, most notable hand wash and sanitizers, they naturally looked to their most favoured and trusted suppliers. In many instances this was Apollo.
Then there were other retailers who may not have had a manufacturing partner capable of meeting increased demand. And this is where Apollo also was able to reach out and gain new customers. And quickly. In fact looking at the table below suggests that most of the increase in revenue is more a result of adding new customers than upping their supply to current customers.

% of Revenues for Q1/2020 % of Revenues for Q2/2020 % of Revenues for Q3/2020
Customer 1 66% 18% 18%
Customer 2 17% 12% 10%

The addition of new customers has not only helped sales this year but it should help maintain a higher level of sales going forward. It is much harder for a manufacturer to get their foot in the door with a high volume retailer than it is for them to maintain their favoured status. These new customers should allow Apollo to introduce new product offerings going forward - a retailer they currently may be supplying only one or two SKUs to could lead to contracts for multiple SKUs in the future.

2) Better Margins

FY 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Revenue 167,148,000 46,567,000 97,826,000 90,149,000
Cost of Revenue 127,551,000 33,074,000 52,997,000 45,321,000
Gross Margin % 23.7% 29.0% 45.8% 49.7%

There are a number of factors that explain this gross margin improvement. First, Apollo has a state of the art manufacturing facility located in Toronto. It has its own rail spur that connects to the freight corridor. This facility has been under utilized since its inception. It was built for years of growth that unfortunately stalled in 2016. Secondly, Apollo's highest margin projects (hand soap and sanitizer) have also been the ones to see the greatest increase in sales this year. Thirdly, purchasing from suppliers in bulk always results in reduced costs - the more one purchases the cheaper it is on a per unit basis. Resin used for packaging is the biggest cost and raw materials in total historically comprise 65% of the cost of goods. The other 35% tends to be more fixed in nature so a combination of reducing the unit cost on raw materials and not having to scale up the more fixed costs results in significant gross margin improvements. Scaling up production by 100% only requires scaling up expenses by perhaps 40-50%. Looking at Q3 as an example:

Q3 2019 Q3 2020
Revenue 43,376,000 90,149,000 (up 108%)
Cost of Raw Materials 22,903,000 33,944,000 (up 48%)
Salaries 5,784,000 7,600,000 (up 31%)
Utilities & Maintenance 2,712,000 2,342,000 (down 14%)

As can be seen above a revenue jump of over 100% does not correspond with a similar percentage increase in cost of goods. The same effect can be seen when comparing Q2 results of this year with last year.

3) Debt Reduction and SG&A Containment
Apollo began the year with $65 million of debt outstanding. This was responsible for approximately $4.8 million of interest payments in 2019. In Q3/2020 interest payments were $164 thousand. All debt has now been paid off so interest payments going forward will be $0. With respect to SG&A, as a percentage of revenue, it has also been trending down.

FY 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Revenue 167,148,000 46,567,000 97,826,000 90,149,000
SG&A 41,260,000 10,620,000 19,111,000 16,137,000
SG&A as % of Revenue 24.7% 22.8% 19.5% 17.9%
Q2/2020 includes $4 million in compensation paid to the Wachsbergs due to EBITDA and debt reduction milestones. Q3/2020 includes other one time compensations to directors and officers. Increased freight charges due to more products being shipped have also led to increased SG&A in absolute terms.

Valuation

In order to develop a proper valuation one needs to figure out what normalized earnings will be going forward. This is not a normal environment right now and most likely it won't be a normal environment until at least next summer. This likely gives Apollo three more quarters of elevated earnings. Based on the last two quarters and not taking into account any further contract wins or an increase in products sold due to the second wave and a return of stay-at-home policies, a conservative model for the next three quarters could look something like this:

Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Revenue 90,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000
Gross Margin % 45% 45% 43%
Gross Profit 40,500,000 40,500,000 34,400,000
SG&A 14,000,000 14,000,000 18,000,000*
Operating Profit 26,500,000 26,500,000 16,400,000
EPS $0.36 $0.36 $0.22
\the bump of $4 million in SG&A is due to a performance bonus the Wachsbergs will receive for achieving certain targets. The last of theses bonuses will be in 2022)
We might start seeing some tapering of sales in Q2/21 as the second wave recedes and vaccines become more widely distributed. Even so, Apollo would still exit Q2/2021 with $69 million in cash and debt free. Trailing 12 month EPS would be $1.32
All the hard work right shipping Apollo is now starting to pay dividends. In fact I would argue the only way Apollo was able to exploit the COVID environment and maximize earnings was by correcting all their deficiencies and inefficiencies before 2020. Streamlining operations (including developing a robust network of reliable suppliers that competitors can't match) and targeting a favourable product mix have been the keys to their recent success and have set Apollo up to capitalize on any future opportunities that may arise. The onset of COVID proved that Apollo was up to the task and was capable of greatly expanding their earnings power if given the opportunity.

Case Studies


The Bear Case
Even in the bear case scenario a couple of positive assumptions need to be made;
1) Hand soap and sanitizer sales, personal hygiene care in general, will not return to pre-pandemic levels, maybe ever. The question is, where will they stabilize.
2) Positive momentum gained by Apollo over the last year (and especially accelerated this year by COVID) in terms of operational efficiency and new contract wins will ultimately lead to a much better earnings environment in a post-COVID world.
The bear case argues that normalized sales will settle much closer to the $170 million annually seen pre-COVID than they will to the $365 million annualized seen during COVID. As a result of reduced sales, SG&A will return to pre-COVID levels. Annual growth rate will remain on the low end of its CPG (consumer packaged goods) peers. Apollo will still be a cash generating machine that could easily pay a 3-4% dividend and it would be deserving of a multiple well below the average of the CPG universe (Clorox, P&G, J&J, Colgate all trade at multiples in the 22-27x range).

The Bull Case
The bull case accepts the bear case's positive assumptions but believes sales going forward will stabilize at the mid-range between pre-COVID and post-COVID. As a result of higher revenues and favourable product mix (hand soaps, sanitizers being higher margin), gross margin percentage will also be significantly higher (albeit still 5-10% lower their current mark). Further, the bull case also makes the following assumptions:
1) Private label market share will continue to increase in North America. Currently it sits under 20% whereas in Europe it is well over 30% ( https://www.statista.com/statistics/1069991/private-label-value-market-share-worldwide-by-region/ ) There is plenty of evidence to suggest that consumers are becoming more price conscious and becoming more accepting of off-brand products ( https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2019/04/11/Consumers-don-t-just-like-private-label-they-prefer-it# and https://www.grocerydive.com/news/grocery--stronger-consumer-acceptance-is-a-boon-for-private-labels/534502/ ). Part of the reason is due to the quality of private label products increasing and part of it is due to the ability of private label to more quickly adapt to consumer needs.
Apollo is positioned ideally to take advantage of real time customer demand for innovative products. They have an extensive R&D team that can develop new SKUs and have them shipped out within weeks. If Walmart calls up Apollo and says we have a lot of customers asking for some hand sanitizer that contains Vitamin E, or a hand soap with a tropical scent, Apollo can fulfill that demand in quick order. Even in terms of bottle sizes, material, and packaging, Apollo can whip out new SKUs in no time. Just in the last week they have had multiple SKUs/formulations approved by Health Canada for their #1 selling hand sanitizer, Natural Concepts ( search for Apollo here https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-health-products/disinfectants/covid-19/hand-sanitizer.html ). The big national brands on the other hand would have to develop an extensive marketing campaign, secure distribution, and compete for valuable shelf space if they wanted to introduce a new product.
Retailers also have plenty to gain by embracing private label products. Margins at the retailer level are higher for private label products, the retailers have the potential to create a loyal customer base by offering a brand that can't be found anywhere else (think Trader Joe's), and retailers can more easily match customer demand as the turnaround time from R&D to production is much quicker for private label products. As an example CVS has embraced the private label trend ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/barbarathau/2017/10/12/as-power-of-name-brands-wanes-cvs-is-betting-on-private-labels-to-revive-sales/?sh=36ab41734ef2 ) and remains one of Apollo's largest customers. Apollo manufactures many products within the Beauty 360 line.
2) The bull case also assumes that Apollo will continue expanding beyond their primary markets in North America. There is already evidence that this process is being fast tracked during COVID. As an example Apollo's products can now be found at Pricesmart, the largest operator of membership warehouse clubs in Central America and the Caribbean. Here is their hand soap https://www.pricesmart.com/site/cen/pdp/999000. Member's Selection is Pricesmart's private label brand but Pricesmart is also selling Apollo's own hand sanitizer https://www.pricesmart.com/site/cen/pdp/392858. This is also an example of cross selling where once Apollo gains entry into a retailer's network it can easily expand its product offerings. Another example of cross selling is at Giant Eagle, a regional grocery chain. Here is one of their private label hand soaps https://shop.gianteagle.com/harbor-creek/search/product/00030034911324 and a search for hand sanitizer reveals Natural Concepts displayed prominently https://shop.gianteagle.com/harbor-creek/search?q=hand%20sanitizer

The bull case also assumes that Apollo will want to return its cash to shareholders in some way. This could be through a regular dividend or share buybacks. Apollo has been buying back shares this year, including purchasing 88,880 shares in November at an average price of $4.20

https://preview.redd.it/vbq7m9o3k0561.png?width=2106&format=png&auto=webp&s=4af67126c6d2a31820c4d8bd66a7df78b1b9c720

The Super Bull Case
The super bull case assumes further market penetration post-COVID than the bull case and/or less of a drop off in personal hygiene sales. This results in slightly higher revenues. It also assumes better plant optimization resulting in higher gross margins.
But most importantly the super bull case predicts a higher growth rate leading to a higher multiple, more in line with the big national brands. A growth rate of 5% would be almost double that of the leading brands but at the same time it is quite achievable. The growth would come from potentially three areas;
1) As with the bull case there will be further adaption of private label products in North America. Apollo will also be successful in entering new markets.
2) Apollo will be starting the post-COVID cycle with a war chest of cash ($80-$100 million). They will also be generating $50-$60 million annually of free cash flow. This can be used for accretive acquisitions. Right now the private label industry is extremely fragmented. With Apollo's cash they could make small acquisitions that will ultimately lead to increased earnings and a higher growth profile.
3) There is the potential to expand their own branded products beyond the Natural Concepts hand sanitizer product line. This can open up new channels of distribution. There is precedence for this in Vi-Jon Laboratories. Vi-Jon, like Apollo is one of the larger private label manufacturers in North America. They have also been quite successful creating their own branded line of products, most notable Swan and Germ-X ( https://www.vijon.com/products/ ).
Another wildcard in the super bull case is the research Apollo has been doing into CBD cosmetic products ( https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191021005855/en/Apollo-Health-and-Beauty-Care-Granted-Research-and-Development-License-Under-the-Cannabis-Act ). This has been put on hold as Apollo is rightfully using all their resources to meet current demand but it does point to potential revenue generating avenues that a smaller manufacturer without a strong R&D department would not have access to.
Since the super bull case foresees Apollo growing through acquisitions and/or intensifying their research and development, SG&A expenses will naturally be higher.

Super Bull Case Bull Case Bear Case
Revenue 280,000,000 264,000,000 220,000,000
Gross Margin % 42% 40% 33%
Gross Profit 117,600,000 105,600,000 72,600,000
SG&A 60,000,000 52,000,000 44,000,000
Operating Profit 57,600,000 53,600,000 28,600,000
EPS $0.78 $0.73 $0.39
Annual Growth 5%+ 3% 1.5%
Target Multiple 25x 20x 15x
Price Target $19.50 $14.40 $5.85

Right now the market is pricing in something between the bear case and the bull-super bowl case. The common shares trading at $4.89 suggest there is still quite a bit of skepticism concerning Apollo's revenue potential post-COVID. But Apollo also has warrants (ticker symbol AHC.WT) dating back to Acasta's IPO that expire in January, 2022 and are exercisable at $11.50. As these warrants are trading at $0.41 despite being far out of the money this suggests that investors are hedging the bear case with the optionality of the bull-super bowl case.
I should also note Apollo has earned $0.73/share in the past 6 months. Annualized this is $1.46. The super bull case assumes normalized earnings per share in the first year of only $0.78, not much more than half of Apollo's current earnings power. I don't even think it is worth considering a situation where Apollo earns $1.46 annually. That would result in a share price in excess of $30.

Near Term Catalysts


  1. Continued momentum leading into FY2020 earnings the first week of March. Apollo will most likely report EPS between $1.10 and $1.20. Its P/E ratio is going to jump out on screeners. The share price has been on a meteoric ascent as it tries to catch up with the fundamentals.
  2. Analyst coverage, increased institutional ownership. There have been several large crosses since August leading to increased trade volume. This could be institutions/funds taking positions and could signal analyst coverage in the near future. Right now Apollo does no promotion. No earnings conference calls, no press releases updating the market on their operations. But now with the corporate name finally changed this could change.
  3. Cash deployment, whether it be the introduction of a dividend, a special dividend, or continued share buybacks. The Wachsbergs probably want to see some return on the $10 shares they accepted 4 years ago.
submitted by Jean_des_Esseintes to CanadianInvestor [link] [comments]

What’s next for Dave Gettleman, Jason Garrett and the Giants after playoff miss? - The Athletic

There should be no sympathy for the Giants after they watched their season come to an inglorious end with the Eagles rolling over in a 20-14 loss to Washington on Sunday night. That’s what happens when your fate winds up in the hands of a hated rival.
The Giants wouldn’t have been in that position if they hadn’t blown an 11-point lead to the Eagles in the final six minutes of their Week 7 matchup. Now, watching quarterback Jalen Hurts get pulled from a three-point game early in the fourth quarter surely will add some juice to the next Giants-Eagles meeting. But the reality is the Giants went 6-10 and even in this wacky season, that’s not enough to make the playoffs.
Here are some thoughts as the Giants begin the offseason rather than starting preparations for a home playoff game against the Buccaneers:
• Though playoff experience would have been beneficial, this outcome may be the best thing for the organization in the long run. It would have been a mistake to have the view of the big picture clouded by a fluky division title. If the Giants were in any other division this season, they would have finished at least five games out of first place.
The biggest decision Giants ownership has to make is the future of general manager Dave Gettleman. John Mara and Steve Tisch need to evaluate a three-year tenure that has produced 15 wins and 33 losses, and there won’t be any “but we made the playoffs” arguments added to the equation. The Giants have three wins over teams with winning records in Gettleman’s three seasons.
It’s certainly possible that ownership reviews Gettleman’s full body of work and decides to stick with him based on the progress made this year. Gettleman was outstanding in free agency in the offseason and he appears to work well with first-year head coach Joe Judge.
On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Giants make a change. That may not mean an outright firing — perhaps the 69-year-old will retire or shift into an advisory role — but the end result would be someone new running the personnel department. If that happens, expect the Giants to find someone with ties to Judge. A decision on Gettleman’s fate should come within the next day or so since six teams (Lions, Texans, Falcons, Jaguars, Panthers and Washington) are already in the market for a new general manager.
• The other major decision looming is the fate of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. The Giants produced the second fewest points in the league (topping only the Jets) in Garrett’s first season as the play caller.
Garrett has long been a favorite of ownership and he was viewed as a valuable sounding board for Judge in his first year as a head coach. That guidance carries less value after Judge handled his first season smoothly.
Garrett had to overcome some personnel deficiencies, but his scheme appeared outdated. While more innovative offenses heavily feature pre-snap motion, Garrett lagged in that category. His route combinations relied too much on pedestrian receivers winning one-on-one matchups, while other schemes spring receivers open more frequently.
Judge and Garrett has always felt like an arranged marriage. It could be headed for divorce after one season.
• Though the Giants were running Garrett’s offense and he was calling the plays, Judge’s imprint is on every facet of the team. So the head coach bears responsibility for the overly conservative offensive approach.
Judge clearly believed this team’s best opportunity to win came from limiting mistakes offensively and riding the defense. But that style of play leaves an impossibly narrow margin of error.
Judge is aware of this, since he’s stated that part of his defensive philosophy is to limit big plays and force opponents to snap the ball again and again until they eventually make a mistake. Yet armed with that knowledge, that’s the type of offense he chose to deploy this season.
Maybe Judge just felt that he needed to keep the training wheels on second-year quarterback Daniel Jones behind a shaky offensive line and surrounded by mediocre skill players. But the best teams in the league have the most explosive offenses, so that’s what the Giants will need to become if they’re going to be taken seriously as contenders.
• Jones had two touchdown passes in the finale to increase his season total to 11 in 14 starts. That was a steep decline from his 24 touchdown passes in 12 starts as a rookie. Jones’ passing numbers were down across the board in his second season. He did cut back on his turnovers (10 interceptions, 11 fumbles) after alarming ball security issues as a rookie (12 interceptions, 18 fumbles). Jones was much more of a rushing threat this season despite being limited by hamstring and ankle injuries over the past month.
Judge has been steadfast in his support of Jones, pointing out development that doesn’t show up in the box score. But next season will be crucial in charting the future of Jones and the franchise. Assuming the Giants bolster Jones’ supporting cast, he needs to make strides as a quarterback in Year 3.
• The need for a No. 1 wide receiver is glaring, whether that’s added through free agency, the draft or both. The Giants offense is full of complementary pieces, but it needs a top dog. Sterling Shepard is an ideal No. 2 out of the slot and Darius Slayton will benefit from another receiver drawing attention from defenses after a quiet second half of the season.
Tight end has to be viewed as a need, as the Giants can’t go through another season relying on the wildly inconsistent Evan Engram. Maybe Engram will thrive in a smaller role because he’s involved in as many big plays for the opposition as he is for the Giants in his current featured role.
The Giants are counting on getting Saquon Barkley back at 100 percent, although it will be interesting to monitor his rehab from knee surgery. He had his meniscus repaired in addition to having his ACL reconstructed, which can make for a longer recovery process. But Barkley will be almost 11 months removed from the injury at the start of training camp, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t be back at full speed by then. It will be interesting to see how Barkley performs behind an offensive line that hit its stride run-blocking in the second half of the season.
If everything develops perfectly, the Giants could have five young offensive linemen in place to grow together. But the only sure things headed into next season are left tackle Andrew Thomas, who improved after a rocky start to his rookie season, and Nick Gates, who made progress in his first season at center.
Guards Shane Lemieux and Will Hernandez have enough weaknesses that the Giants likely will be hesitant to move on from high-priced veteran Kevin Zeitler. Rookie right tackle Matt Peart ended the season on a down note after showing promise early. The Giants will count on development on the offensive line, but it’s a position that likely needs reinforcements this offseason.
• The Giants have some big decisions to make in free agency with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson. Williams bet on himself by playing on the $16.1 million franchise tag this season and he cashed in with a career-high 11.5 sacks.
Williams said after the game “it’s never been about the money.” Unfortunately for the Giants, Williams has agents and their job is entirely about the money. His asking price will likely be in the $20 million per season range and it’s hard to imagine the Giants balking considering his value to the defense.
At some point the well will run dry, especially with needs at other positions, so it looks like Tomlinson could wind up as the odd man out. That would be unfortunate since Tomlinson has been a model player and person in his four seasons with the Giants. But the salary cap forces tough decisions. If Williams is going to get $20 million per year and safety Logan Ryan just signed an extension worth $10 million per year, there won’t be much left over for Tomlinson, who should warrant a deal in the $12 million per year range.
• A tip of the cap to the job the defensive coaches did with limited resources at the cornerback spot opposite Pro Bowler James Bradberry. The Giants started four different players at No. 2 corner and somehow weren’t exploited despite a deficiency at such an important position.
Corey Ballentine opened the season as the starter and was benched after two games. Isaac Yiadom took over and was benched after two games. Yiadom was replaced by Ryan Lewis, who made three starts before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury. Yiadom reclaimed the job in Week 8 and started the next eight games before getting benched for safety Julian Love in the finale.
Adding a legitimate No. 2 cornerback to complement Bradberry is another item on the offseason checklist.
• The Giants will have the 11th pick in the draft, finishing between the two other 6-10 teams (Dallas picks 10th and the 49ers pick 12th). The win over the Cowboys cost the Giants four draft spots, as they would have picked seventh with a loss. The Eagles will pick sixth. They would have slid to ninth with a win on Sunday night, and they showed how valuable they viewed those three draft slots.
• The Giants’ 2021 opponents and locations are now finalized (the order of games will be announced around the draft). The Giants will host the three NFC East teams, Atlanta, Carolina, Denver, Las Vegas and the Rams. They’ll travel to the three NFC East teams, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, the Chargers and Chicago.
The Giants finished in second in the NFC East. The matchups with the Bears and the Rams are the result of those teams finishing in second in the NFC North and NFC West, respectively. The entire NFC East will face the NFC South and AFC West next season.
• Washington capturing the NFC East continued a streak of no repeat winners of the division since the Eagles from 2001-04. The Giants last won the division in 2011, which was their most recent Super Bowl season. Since then, each of the other NFC East teams has won the division three times.
• The Giants have plenty of their own problems to worry about, but they have to feel good about the mess the Eagles have made of their quarterback situation. There were reports Sunday that the relationship between Carson Wentz and the franchise is “fractured beyond repair,” with the quarterback seeking a trade.
Drafting Hurts in the second round of this year’s draft was a colossal backfire. Instead of adding help for Wentz, the Eagles added a threat that the quarterback apparently couldn’t handle. Hurts showed flashes in four starts, but there are plenty of questions about his potential as a franchise quarterback.
The way the Eagles season finished only adds to the dysfunction of a franchise that appeared to be poised for a lengthy run after winning a Super Bowl in the 2017 season.
• One footnote: The Giants would have hosted the Bucs next Saturday night. It would have been sweet to have another postseason matchup with Tom Brady, even if he’s wearing a different uniform and Eli Manning has transformed into a Twitter super fan.
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Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. The San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs during Super Bowl LIV in Miami.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channels:NFL V... Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless make their predictions for Super Bowl 2020. Hear why Shannon thinks the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will battl... Top 10 Best Super Bowl 54 Commercials (2020 Funniest Ads Superbowl LIV)Super Bowl 50 Advertisements: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2c2mPpvcpwSuperbowl 51 ... The Ultimate Battle of Good and Evil vs an Even Eviler Evil! ALL the HEROES, ALL the VILLAINS - MARVEL, DC, STAR WARS, X-MEN, LORD OF THE RINGS, HARRY POTTER... ALL SUPER BOWL Movie Trailers 202000:00 Black Widow 00:30 Fast And Furious 9 01:00 Minions 2 The Rise Of Gru01:30 James Bond 007 No Time To Die02:00 Top Gun ... WHAT ACTUALLY WENT DOWN ON SUPER BOWL SUNDAY WITH ALEX & JLOHalftime Performance Numbers: - Halftime show viewership ratings significantly up from last year ... This is the Super Bowl 2020 Winners Prediction Game by K-City, as promised: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers in Madden NFL 20! Thanks for watching K... Kansas City Chiefs fans gather to celebrate the team’s first Super Bowl championship in 50 years with a parade and rally in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs won S... I put together ten commercials from the 2020 Super Bowl which I think are the best. I hope you enjoy my compilation. Tell me in the comments which commercial...

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