This is just mock draft 1 and we're a long way from the actual draft so I'm open to criticism, position suggestions, player evaluation disagreements, etc. Let me know what you think (third round explanations deleted due to word count restraints).

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Lawrence is in the discussion for best QB prospect of all time and will be the pick.
   
2. New York Jets - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State. I'm working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not be traded. After a deep dive into analytics and spending way too much time breaking down game tape, I personally would go with Fields over Wilson. But, they have virtually the same grade and I would not be shocked by either player being picked.
   
3. Denver Broncos (from Miami via Houston) - QB Zach Wilson, BYU. With Zach Wilson still on the board at pick 3, John Elway, George Paton and the Broncos go all in to get their franchise QB. If your division rival is lining up Patrick Mahomes under center, you need to do better than Drew Lock to compete. The Broncos have a franchise left tackle to anchor their line, and a very talented young group of weapons. They've build a roster friendly to a franchise QB, so the timing is right to make this move for Denver. As the Rams have proven, you don't need first round picks to build a roster that competes for championships.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon. I 'm not sure this move will be popular with Falcons fans, but here goes. With the Broncos trading up and taking the last of the top QBs in this class off the board, the Falcons suddenly have a difficult decision to make. Do you take a raw, inexperienced QB like Trey Lance, or do you take best player available? Here I have the Falcons going best player available because Matt Ryan is still a top QB, and due to his contract situation he's going to be on the roster for at least two more years. That gives them a bigger window to add more talent to the roster before selecting Ryan's replacement. And it would probably be prudent for the Falcons to build a roster then get a QB, rather than get a QB and build the roster after, when the QB prospect in question is a project. Unfortunately, there are no pass rushing prospects who really fit here, although Dean Pees' defense should help to mask that deficiency some and there are good value prospects who should be available on day 2. A.J. Terrell had a promising rookie season, but beyond him they need both depth and talent at CB so one of the top CB prospects is an option here. However, for Arthur Smith's new offense getting a prospect like Sewell is too good of an option. With his contract being easy to move on from, I'm projecting the Falcons cut James Carpenter and select Sewell to move to guard to start his career. This gives them a lot of talent on the offensive line and a lot of flexibility in the future. Should Matthews begin to decline, they can move on and slide Sewell out to left. If McGary doesn't get better in his third year, Sewell could be a long term replacement there. And the main factor that led me to making this pick is that Arthur Smith didn't take the Atlanta job to rebuild. He's got a really good QB in Matt Ryan and Sewell at guard gives the Falcons the best chance at closing out the Ryan era on a high note.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern. Thanks to the Broncos trading up for Wilson, the Bengals are guaranteed at least one of the top offensive line prospects in the class being on the board, and although Sewell is gone at 4 Slater is still an excellent prize at 5. As tempting as it may be to reunite Burrow and Chase, the Bengals have to protect their franchise QB. Ideally, Jonah Williams is healthy, but after two years he's had a tough time staying on the field so a guy like Slater who can play any position on the line is perfect here.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama. While I do think it would be smart for the Eagles to draft a CB here, I think Nick Sirianni's odds of surviving in Philly will go way down if he can't fix Wentz. I also think Roseman knows his job is tied to the success of Wentz, given the contract he gave to Wentz. Because of that I've decided to go with a WR here. If I'm being honest, I'm not entirely sure that Smith is the best WR prospect in this class. It's really close between the top 3. However, I think the areas in which Smith excels make him the best fit for Sirianni's offense.
   
7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU. While QB was expected to be a target, thanks to the acquisition of Jared Goff the Lions do not need to draft a QB here. In fact, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Lions pick a QB here. Jared Goff has had success in the NFL and he's helped lead his team to a Super Bowl, he may not be a top QB but he's a capable starter. Given the influx of draft capital, the Lions cap situation, and the fact that Goff's contract is virtually unmovable for the next two years they are likely going to use this window to build the roster back up. While I think a CB could be a good fit here, they did just draft Okudah last year who should be given a chance to grow in a new defense, especially since the transition from college to the NFL takes longer at that position. Micah Parsons is tempting here too, as linebacker is a need for the Lions. But given the cap situation and the fact that Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, I've decided to give the Lions a WR. Not only does this give the Lions a cheap, young, and talented option at WR (allowing them to move on from some of those would-be free agents), he's also arguably the top prospect left on the board.
   
8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama. There are a lot of options the Panthers could go with here. I debated between Micah Parsons and Surtain here because while I think the Panthers defense should improve next year, they're still missing consistent ILB play as well as a true #1 CB. Ultimately I chose Surtain over Parsons based on positional value given similar position on my board. I also chose Surtain over Farley because I think he's a better fit in Phil Snow's defense. He's physical and sticky in coverage, and I think he would be a great complement at cornerback to go with safety Chinn. I think OL could be considered here, but I'm not sure reaching for OL when there is better value at other positions of need makes sense. Trey Lance could be an option here, but I (perhaps incorrectly) think Fitterer and Rhule will pass on a QB if they can get a top defensive prospect. This would effectively buy another year for them to build up the roster if they choose to go with a QB in the first round of 2022.
   
9. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State. Thanks to a number of trades, real and mocked, the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital and they can use some of that to get weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. But here, they take the best player still on the board. Brian Flores loves to blitz, and Parsons is one of the best blitzing linebacker prospects in years. Jaylen Waddle would be a good pick here too, but the fit is too perfect for me to pass here.
   
10. Dallas Cowboys - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech. The Cowboys offense will not be a problem with Prescott back in the lineup. The defense needs a lot of work though, so as tempting as Kyle Pitts may be the Cowboys will almost certainly go defense here. The Cowboys have some cornerbacks set to be free agents but they are not worth re-signing. Farley is the best cornerback on the board and is a great value here for Dallas. The Cowboys could look at a couple other positions on defense, but they won't find the value they'd be getting in Caleb Farley.
    
11. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State. With the 49ers pick looming, the Bears pull the trigger to move up and get their QB. The Bears have Nick Foles under contract for two more years but he can be cut after next season. Given that situation, the Bears can afford to sit Lance for at least a year and let him develop. He's got all of the tools to be a great QB, but due to the fact that he only played one year at the FCS level, he falls to 11.
    
12. San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina. Injuries decimated a roster that is talented enough to compete for championships when healthy, so the 49ers can afford to focus on needs. Horn might be seen as a reach here by some, but the drop-off at cornerback is huge and the 49ers need to address the position in the offseason with so many impending free agents. Regardless, Horn is an excellent prospect and be a good pick for first time DC Ryans.
    
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC. Justin Herbert emerged as one of the most promising young QBs in the game despite poor offensive line play. The Chargers need to improve the line, so they can't justify reaching for a tackle because of positional value. They just need to take the best lineman on the board, and that's Vera-Tucker. There's some discussion as to whether he can make it as a tackle at the next level, but most have him projected as a guard. Wherever he plays, he should be an upgrade for the Chargers.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan. The Vikings would love to improve their interior offensive line, but there's better value on day 2, so the Vikings go with a pass rusher here. The Vikings had one of the best defenses in 2019, and a big part of that was the pass rush. Last year however, the pass rush was ineffective and the defense fell apart. Getting Danielle Hunter back and pairing him with Paye while rotating D.J. Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes in could restore the Vikings pass rush and help get them back to the postseason.
    
15. New England Patriots - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame. Although he played in a different scheme at Notre Dame than Bill Belichick uses, Owusu-Koramoah is one of the most versatile defenders in the class. He has shown the ability to rush the passer, drop back in coverage, and his elite sideline to sideline speed for the position that makes him an ideal linebacker against modern offenses. The Patriots need to get younger and faster on defense. As much as I want to add a weapon like Waddle or Pitts to the Patriots, I'm just not convinced that Belichick will actually do that in the first round.
    
16. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL). With Haason Reddick and Markus Golden both set to hit free agency, and Chandler Jones coming off of an injury, heading into his age 31 season, and on the final year of his contract, the Cardinals pass rush is inevitably going to look different in the next couple of years. With a prospect as good as Phillips on the board, drafting him to replace Jones and re-signing Reddick will give the Cardinals a formidable pass rush for the foreseeable future. If the Cardinals want to continue to close the gap with the Rams and Seahawks, they can't let their pass rush decline.
    
17. Las Vegas Raiders - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama. Every year a couple players drop farther than they should. This year, one of those players is Jaylen Waddle. The Raiders need to improve their defense, and there are some tempting players on the board for the Raiders to take, such as Gregory Rousseau. But the Raiders outside threats could have been better this year, and Jon Gruden will jump at the opportunity to put Waddle with Waller and Ruggs. Waddle is up there with the best weapons in this class, so this is a great value for the Raiders at 17.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida. Having already landed one of the best defensive players, Miami now turns its attention to surrounding Tagovailoa with the talent to thrive. The Dolphins got good production from DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, but could upgrade the rest of their receiving corps. Toney is electric and gives the Dolphins a playmaker over the middle of the field, which is exactly what Miami could use to help Tagovailoa grow.
    
19. Washington Football Team - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida. Washington didn't get their QB in this draft, but they get incredible value at 19 in Pitts. Besides Terry McLaurin, Washington doesn't really have a true playmaker at receiver so Pitts would immediately upgrade the offense. Given how good Washington's defense is, if they can't get a QB by trading up their main goal should be to improve their weapons and Pitts would be the ideal scenario.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL). The Giants biggest need is probably their wide receiver room, but with the top prospect on the board being a pass rusher, the Giants go with one of the highest upside defensive prospects in the class in Rousseau. The Giants don't have a lot of talent on the edge, so they fill a need here.
    
21. Indianapolis Colts - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech. The Colts have boasted one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in recent years, and with Anthony Castonzo retiring, the Colts will want to keep their line in top shape by drafting his replacement. His length, athleticism, and intelligence make him the preferred tackle target for the Colts here.
    
22. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas. The Titans are a very good team, and most improvements that could be made would be to improve depth. But the one area the Titans desperately need to improve if they want to legitimately compete for championships is their pass rush and defensive line. Ossai is the most explosive pass rush prospect left on the board who can fit with their defensive scheme.
    
23. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Jets via Seattle) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama. The 49ers move up to get the guy they believe can be their next franchise QB. In this scenario, the 49ers were targeting Trey Lance at 12, but because of the Chicago trade, they opted instead to take Horn, who is higher on the draft board and can help their secondary which will be losing some pieces to free agency. When Mac Jones gets past Washington at 19, they believe they can move up into the mid-20s for a reasonable value and get their QB. The best value in terms of trading draft capital is at 23, and they have to make this move to get ahead of Pittsburgh who could potentially take Jones to replace Ben Roethlisberger. The 49ers are now without a pick until the 5th round, but it's worth it to secure their QB of the future.
    
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan. The Steelers cap space isn't great right now, although Roethlisberger restructuring his contract will help. In any case, the Steelers are going to have to move on from some players, and one that makes sense is Alejandro Villanueva. He's played well, but he's going to be 33 next year, and rather than paying a veteran LT salary with tight cap space, it makes sense to draft his replacement. Mayfield is very technically sound and is nasty, two things that have defined Pittsburgh offensive line play over the years. There may be concern about him playing right tackle at Michigan, but as Jedrick Wills proved for the Browns, a move to left tackle is possible for a top prospect. Running back is also a possibility here, but there's better value in later rounds.
    
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU. The Jaguars weren't accidentally the number one pick. They were terrible on both offense and defense, and with so much early draft capital they don't have to reach on players in the name of protecting Lawrence at all costs. The Jaguars have some nice weapons on offense, and there will be good offensive line prospects on the board in the second round. They need to improve their secondary badly, and Moehrig is an immediate impact player with good versatility, and would be an instant upgrade over Josh Jones, who should not return to the team in 2021. Moehrig is arguably the highest graded prospect left on the board, he has a high floor, he's ready to play right away, and he fills a need.
    
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa. The Browns have a lot of holes on defense, and linebacker in particular is an area that they need to address. Despite being massive for a linebacker, Collins is quick and athletic and can play in coverage. He also has good pass rushing ability, which is an area that Cleveland needs to improve opposite of Myles Garrett. His versatility makes him valuable in multiple packages which should help him get on the field early, something that Cleveland should value at the end of the first round given that their competitive window is open.
    
27. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, but with such a good, deep running attack, the Ravens can afford to wait until the second round. The Ravens have several pass rushers set to become free agents, and they won't be able to bring all of them back. In any case, the Ravens could use an upgrade at the position anyway. Although Ojulari played in 4 man fronts, his size, speed, and athleticism make him a natural fit as an edge rusher in a 3 man front defense. His energy is also a great fit for the Ravens defense.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State. The Saints have the worst cap situation in the NFL and because of that they're going to lose some key free agents. One guy that they almost certainly will not be able to retain is breakout DE Trey Hendrickson, who registered 13.5 sacks in 2020 and should be in line for a nice raise on the free agent market. Oweh has tremendous upside due to his freakish athleticism, explosiveness, and length. He's a bit raw, and will need some time to develop, but with Cameron Jordan on the opposite side of the line Oweh is the type of player the Saints can afford to target.
    
29. Green Bay Packers - WR Tutu Atwell, Louisville. Aaron Rodgers covers the deficiencies of the wide receiver room well, but the Packers do need to improve their weapons. Adams and Tonyan are good pieces, but St. Brown, Lazard, and Valdez-Scantling can't be the secondary options at wide receiver. Adding an electric slot receiver in Atwell makes sense given the profile of the rest of the receivers on the roster.
    
30. Buffalo Bills - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington. The Bills have a very complete roster, but they could definitely improve their pass rush. Getting to the quarterback, namely Patrick Mahomes, will be the Bills best chance of getting over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Tryon is a nice scheme fit, and should be able to see the field instantly, something a contender like Buffalo will be looking for here. I was tempted to mock a running back here, as there's great talent left on the board, but I think the Bills are more likely to ride with their 3rd round picks from 2019 and 2020, Singletary and Moss.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington. The Buccaneers have a loaded offense, so the focus should be on the defense, specifically the defensive line. With Gholston having only one more year on his contract, and Suh set to be a free agent, a high upside 3-tech like Onwuzurike makes a lot of sense here. Not to mention, a team that is good enough to make the super bowl can afford to draft BPA, and Onwuzurike is among the best players still on the board here.
    
32. Kansas City Chiefs - OL Alex Leatherwood, Alabama. Kansas City needs to start getting younger on the offensive line. Both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are under contract for 2021, but after that they're free agents. Leatherwood has shown the versatility to slide in anywhere on the line, and could be a day one starter for the Chiefs wherever they need him. This pick could also be used on another weapon or a defensive player, but the value here is too good for Leatherwood.
    

Round 2

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Dayvion Nixon, Iowa. One of the hallmarks of Urban Meyer's Florida and Ohio State teams were deep, talented defensive lines. The Jaguars have a few nice pieces in Josh Allen and Doug Costin, but overall the unit needs to improve. Nixon is one of only a few interior defensive line prospects who offers high upside impact, and getting him here at the start of the second round is good value.
   
2. New York Jets - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern. The Jets have problems with their cornerbacks. Their best cornerback is set to be a free agent, but even if he returns he's only a slot corner. Bryce Hall has shown a lot of promise, but there's not much on the roster behind him. Newsome is a smart, instinctive corner who will fit into Saleh's scheme nicely, and should be ready to compete for a starting role early.
   
3. Atlanta Falcons - RB Najee Harris, Alabama. While it may be unlikely that there are no running backs in the first round (hasn't happened since 2014), I think this draft is so talented that it could happen. As I said earlier, I think the Arthur Smith will try to make win now moves and having a power running game is an important part of Arthur Smith's offensive philosophy. Najee Harris is the top running back on the board and the top prospect left on the board, so everything from fit to value is excellent here for Atlanta.
   
4. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson. Another running back off the board, this time it's the electric back from Clemson. Having already added Toney, now the Miami offense gets arguably the top receiving back in the class. This move makes the offense one of the fastest in the league, and the combination of Etienne and Gaskin gives the Dolphins one of the best young running back rooms in the league.
   
5. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Eric Stokes, Georgia. I nearly went with a CB in round 1 for the Eagles, but it was too hard to pass up on a receiver. The Eagles have a nice CB1 in Slay, but he's getting older and the rest of the CB group needs to be upgraded. Stokes has the ideal size, speed, and length that teams are looking for on the outside and has the experience to challenge for a starting spot early.
   
6. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh. The Bengals already added a top offensive lineman for Burrow, but they have to address the defense early on. Even if the Bengals re-sign Lawson, they need to have more talent on the defensive line to get pressure on opposing QBs. Jones is a good scheme fit and his versatility makes him an attractive option here in the 2nd round.
   
7. Carolina Panthers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri. The Panthers add another impact playmaker for Phil Snow's defense, a guy who could fill the void that they were unable to fill after Keuchly's retirement. There are several options here, but Bolton at 39 is incredible value and the Panthers jump all over a guy with first round upside.
   
8. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - C Landon Dickerson, Alabama. Ted Karras is set to be a free agent, but Miami can upgrade the center position here and get the best prospect at the position in the draft. Dickerson has positional versatility and is well respected for his leadership so this is a great value and culture pick for Miami.
   
9. Detroit Lions - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF. Robinson has the ideal size and length that NFL teams look for, and he's got a lot of experience both inside and outside. The production from the Lions CB room was abysmal in 2020, so more talent needs to be added, even if Jeff Okudah makes the expected year two leap.
   
10. New York Giants - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC. Dave Gettleman is a meat and potatoes guy, and he got his high upside defensive lineman in the first round. But he's going to have to start giving Daniel Jones weapons if they really believe he's the future. Obviously getting Saquon Barkley back will help, but the wide receiver room is aging, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is an outside receiver with WR1 potential who can inject youth and talent into that position group for the Giants.
    
11. New York Jets (from San Francisco) - OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State. The fact that the Jets have a weak offensive line is no secret. Mekhi Becton was a home run draft pick at left tackle last season, but the Jets need to continue adding offensive line talent to avoid their next franchise QB getting killed. Despite another All-American season, Davis' 2020 tape is not as good as his 2019 tape, so he falls to the mid-2nd here. While there are some concerns, he's the best interior offensive line prospect left on the board and he does have upside.
    
12. Dallas Cowboys - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama. The Cowboys defense needs to improve, especially in the run game. Neville Gallimore showed promise, but adding Barmore gives the defensive line a lot more depth and talent. Barmore has the experience to step in right away and produce, something that will be important for the Cowboys who should be looking to win a down NFC East with a healthy Prescott.
    
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota) - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State. Friermuth is an excellent pass catching TE, but he's also one of the better blocking tight ends in this class. This versatility addresses two needs for Jaguars on offense. There's a lot of upside in the Jaguars WR room, so adding a playmaker at TE makes sense, especially because their top tight ends are getting older.
    
14. New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU. The Patriots need to address the wide receiver position, and after passing on a WR in the first round they land a falling Marshall with the 46th pick, so the Patriots end up with a great value in the 2nd round.
    
15. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State. The Chargers line was so bad, and the value at 47 is so good, that I'm going to mock the Chargers double dipping at offensive line with their first two picks. Sam Tevi's contract is up, and he was not good enough to re-sign. The Chargers have to upgrade this spot, and getting a guy like Jenkins here is an easy decision.
    
16. Las Vegas Raiders - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC. The Raiders need to upgrade the defensive line, especially on the interior where Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins were not high impact players. Tuipulotu has great strength and technique, and has three years of starting experience so he should be ready to start right away for the Raiders.
    
17. Arizona Cardinals - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State. Arguably the biggest need for Arizona is cornerback, but with the way the board fell in the first the value was better for other positions of need. Here in the 2nd, they get one of the stickiest corners in the draft. He's a bit undersized, but he's great in man coverage and will be a good scheme fit for Vance Joseph's defense.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma. The Dolphins pick for the fifth time in this mock already, and have addressed a lot of needs so far. One area where they could get better is pass rush depth. While Perkins doesn't jump out as an ideal fit in Flores' defensive scheme, he's got the size, strength, and athleticism should allow him to transition to a standup edge rusher, or rotate in on pass rush situations with his hand on the dirt. He's got all the tools to create pressure in the NFL, and would give Flores a weapon that would allow him to get creative with his defensive play calls.
    
19. Washington Football Team - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas. Washington has an aging line, so getting some youth in the building would be a good strategy. Cornelius Lucas played well enough to have a chance to win the starting LT job in 2021, but he'll be 30 and in a contract year and Morgan Moses will have two years left on his contract. Financially it would make sense to get a long term solution at tackle early in the draft. Cosmi's strengths are a good fit for Scott Turner's blocking schemes.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia. Using this additional pick acquired from Chicago, the Giants address three of their biggest needs in the first two rounds by taking Campbell to go with Rousseau and St. Brown. There are definitely issues on Campbell's tape, but his assignment's in Graham's defense should minimize those weaknesses while maximizing his strength in man coverage. Campbell has elite size, length, and athleticism, so he has tremendous upside.
    
21. Tennessee Titans - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue. The Titans have a very good offense, but are likely going to move on from Corey Davis after the emergence of A.J. Brown. Adding arguably the most electric playmaker in the draft, Rondale Moore, would help keep the Titans offense among the most potent in the NFL.
    
22. New York Jets (from Indianapolis) - RB Javonte Williams, UNC. The Jets need to add some weapons, and with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims on the roster, and better free agent options such as Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay potentially hitting the market, the Jets can add the best weapon on the board, Javonte Williams. He's excellent in the passing game and should fit nicely with the new running scheme.
    
23. Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. With one of the top WR prospects still on the board, and a number of teams ahead of them who could look for a WR, the Chiefs pull the trigger and move up. The Steelers, who have a lot of players headed to free agency, are happy to move down and get more draft picks to try to rebuild the roster with cheaper contracts. Bateman is a good route runner with excellent high point skills, so he's a perfect fit in the offense to replace Watkins.
    
24. Seattle Seahawks - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State. The Seahawks need to make a move on the offensive line at some point, and Radunz is a good prospect here. Cedric Ogbuehi is a free agent, but they could upgrade at RT anyway, and Duane Brown is 35 and only has one year left on his contract. The Seahawks could possibly look at a pass rusher or cornerback here, but the best value on the board is at tackle.
    
25. Los Angeles Rams - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State. There are rumblings that some teams view Browning as a potential first round talent. The athleticism is off the charts, and he's got the speed, explosiveness, length, and motor that NFL teams covet. The upside is undeniable and he's lauded for his character and leadership. Combine that with his experience and versatility, and he's the kind of guy who can come in right away and upgrade the Rams inside linebacker spot, one of the few positions that needs a major upgrade for a team that's going all in to win a Super Bowl.
    
26. Baltimore Ravens - WR Nico Collins, Michigan. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, and Nico Collins has elite size and vertical ball skills, something the Ravens are missing at wide receiver. A lot of the best remaining day 2 caliber receivers are better suited for a slot role, so the Ravens pull the trigger on one of the best outside guys left on the board.
    
27. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB. The Browns desperately need to get some pass rushing help opposite of Myles Garrett. There are some red flags with Smith, but the size and athleticism of Smith make him too good to pass up here. With Collins and Smith, the Browns defense gets a lot bigger, faster, and more talented.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina. All of the Saints moves are going to be made with the salary cap in mind. One of the obvious cost saving moves is to cut Kwon Alexander. The Saints would save more than $13 million without taking on any dead money. Surratt is an excellent player who provides the Saints good value here.
    
29. Buffalo Bills - DT Jay Tufele, USC. The Bills will want to add a cornerback at some point, but with the way the board has fallen Tufele is too good of a value here to pass up on. The Bills need to get better interior defensive line play, and Tufele fits nicely into Frazier's defensive scheme, so this is a good fit as well.
    
30. Green Bay Packers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse. The Packers could address a number of positions here, but Kevin King played poorly and is set to become a free agent anyway. Melifonwu has elite size, and has been climbing draft boards. He may be a bit of a project, but we're getting into the range where there are very few instant impact guys left on the board.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma. With Donovan Smith, Ryan Jensen, and Aaron Stinnie's contracts all set to expire either this year or next year, adding some offensive line help makes sense. Jensen is the weakest of the group, and will likely walk in 2021 if the Buccaneers can acquire a top prospect through the draft. Regardless, the Buccaneers are going to have to add more depth to the center group so the talented Humphrey fills a need.
    
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina. James Conner is set to be a free agent, and it makes financial sense for the Steelers to move on from him. Carter is an excellent value at the bottom of the second round, and he's excellent in the passing game, so he'll be a great fit for the Steelers. Running backs also have the ability to make an impact right away, which is crucial for a team looking to make one last run with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
    

Third Round

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame.
   
2. New York Jets - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss.
   
3. Houston Texans - S Jevon Holland, Oregon.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE, Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forrest.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami (FL).
   
7. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - S Richie Grant, UCF.
   
8. Detroit Lions - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan.
   
9. Carolina Panthers - QB Kyle Trask, Florida.
   
10. Washington Football Team (from San Francisco) - CB Elijah Molden, Washington.
    
11. Dallas Cowboys - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State.
    
12. New York Giants - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati.
    

XX. New England Patriots - Forfeited

1. Los Angeles Chargers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State.
   
2. Minnesota Vikings - OG Ben Cleveland, Georgia.
   
3. Arizona Cardinals - C Josh Myers, Ohio State.
   
4. Las Vegas Raiders - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU.
   
5. Miami Dolphins - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State.
   
6. Washington Football Team - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State.
   
7. Chicago Bears - OT Walker Little, Stanford.
   
8. Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State.
   
9. Tennessee Titans - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State.
   
10. New York Jets (from Seattle) - LB Charles Snowden, Virginia.
    
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Shi Smith, South Carolina.
    
12. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
    
13. Cleveland Browns - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore) - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson.
    
15. Cleveland Browns (from New Orleans) - WR Seth Williams, Auburn.
    
16. Green Bay Packers - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston.
    
17. Buffalo Bills - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford.
    
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt.
    
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL).
    

Compensatory Picks

1. New England Patriots - QB Davis Mills, Stanford.
   
2. Los Angeles Chargers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College.
   
3. New Orleans Saints - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State.
   
4. Dallas Cowboys - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse.
   
5. Tennessee Titans - OT Brady Christensen, BYU.
   
6. Los Angeles Rams - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina.
   
7. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke.
   
8. Los Angeles Rams - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa.
   
9. Baltimore Ravens - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU.
   
10. New Orleans Saints - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU.
    

Trades:
Indianapolis Colts receive: QB Sam Darnold New York Jets receive: Indianapolis 2021 2nd, 5th
This trade value is based on internet rumors and a similar trade in 1987, where the San Francisco 49ers sent a 2nd and 4th round pick to Tampa Bay for 2nd year starter Steve Young. Steve Young was 3-16, with 11 TDs, 21 INTs, a 53.3 comp% and a 63.1 QB rating in two seasons with Tampa Bay but his upside netted a nice return. I think for several reasons, such as the fact that neither Douglas nor Saleh drafted Darnold and the potential to reset the cap window by drafting a 1st round QB, the Jets will trade Darnold. The Colts have a good offensive line and much better weapons than the Jets, so Indianapolis could be a good destination for Darnold after they missed out on Stafford.
***
Denver receives: Houston 2021 1st (3) via Miami Miami receives: Denver 2021 1st (9), 2nd (40), 3rd (71), 2022 1st, 2nd, 2023 2nd
***
Chicago receives: New York Giants 2021 1st (11) New York Giants receive: Chicago 1st (20), 2nd (52), 2022 1st
***
San Francisco receives: Seattle 2021 1st (23) via New York Jets New York Jets receive: San Francisco 2021 2nd (43), 4th, 2022 2nd
***
Kansas City receives: Pittsburgh 2021 2nd (55) Pittsburgh receives: Kansas City 2021 2nd (64), 3rd (95) ***
QB Notes: New England signs Ryan Fitzpatrick Indianapolis trades for Sam Darnold from New York Jets New Orleans re-signs Jameis Winston Washington re-signs Kyle Allen

Here is the much awaited 3.0 Mock! Though some QB movement is inevitable, I didn't mock and player trades, just draft capital trades. My analysis for each team is at the bottom.
Round 1
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
1.26) Browns - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
Round 2
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
AFC
Baltimore Ravens
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
The Ravens have multiple needs this season, but none are as important as DE and Center. Center Matt Skura is still recovering from a significant knee injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in late November along with a disclosated kneecap and his future is unknown. While the franchise-tagged Matthew Judon registered 9.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits — both team high, Jaylon Ferguson, a rookie, only finished with with 2.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits.
Cincinnati Bengals
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
The most important thing in Cincinnati this season is one thing and one thing alone, collect as many assets to protect and assist Joe Burrow this offseason. To make matters worse, Carl Lawson, AJ Green, and John Ross are free agents and most likely to be somewhere else in 2021. Cincinnati posted the second least sacks in 2020 and desperately needs to add playmakers on the edge.
Cleveland Browns
1.26 CLE - Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
On defense, all three levels need to get better. But at the very least, Myles Garrett is locked in long-term as focal point of the defense and Denzel Ward seem likely to join him when he’s extended. I see the browns hammering the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year with a WR in the mix in the later rounds.
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
With the retirement of Pouncey looming along with free agency of Villanueva, Steelers desperately need to find cheap options on the OL. Eichenburg provides and elite, cheap fill and can be a franchise player. The question mark for RB is also a big one. Do they resign Connor, find another option like Kenyan Drake, Jerrick Mckinnon, or Chris Carson or draft one.
Buffalo Bills
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
The Bills are a complete team that doesn’t have many sports for an instant starter. However, they will need to get better in the trenches if they want to compete with the likes of Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Mayfield only played 1 season at Michigan, but the need on the right side of the line in evident. Look for the Bills to also look at DE, LB, CB, or even trade down to a team trying to grab a late first rounder.
Miami Dolphins
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
In Tua year two, the Dolphins need to fill out their roster if they want to compete with the Bills. There are multiple needs Miami has, but filling out their OL and giving Tua elite options are the priority.
New England Patriots
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Offense, Offense, Offense. Patriots need to hammer a rebuild on the offensive side of the draft if they even want to dream about the playoffs again. The Bills and Dolphins are a major threat in the AFC and Newton at QB wasn’t a longterm fix. Moore provides Belichick with an elite pass catcher who can line up all over the field.
New York Jets
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
If the Jets want to compete next year, they need to address almost every position. Drafting basically BPA at every spot this year, they select a QB replacement, a long athletic edge, and some more depth in the OL.
Houston Texans
#fireeasterby
Indianapolis Colts
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
Indianapolis has an elite defense and if they can fix the holes on offense they will be a threat in the AFC for years to come. With the retirements of Phillip Rivers and Anthony Constanzo, LT and QB becoming immediate early draft picks or free agent acquisitions and I believe drafting Trask and Sam Cosmi will be good replacements.
Jacksonville Jaguars
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently in the process of completing their regime change under new head coach Urban Meyer. Once that happens, it will be all about making improvements to the roster this offseason. With Lawrence as a lock, Urban Meyer has to surround his franchise QB with a roster that’ll be competitive.
Tennessee Titans
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. Jaelen Philips fills the need and provides a high-upside EDGE to assist whatever they bring in in free agency.
Denver Broncos
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
With the 9th pick, the Broncos should be targeting one of the several talented cornerbacks in this 2021 NFL Draft class. The Broncos brought in former Pro Bowler A.J. Bouye via trade with the Jaguars and he has been on and off the field due to injuries this season. I think Farley is incredibly talented and he fills a need for Vic Fangio's defense.
Defensive line can’t be ignored as a potential concern. They have five free agents-to-be up front, including Shelby Harris, Jurrell Casey and DeMarcus Walker. Not all of them will come back, we suspect. Even with Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams, McTelvin Agim and maybe Mike Purcell, some depth and insurance would be nice.
Kansas City Chiefs
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. They’ll need to find a few more in the draft and undrafted free agency if they don’t re-sign any of their pending free agents.
Las Vegas Raiders
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
When it comes to the draft, the Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill, particularly when it comes to the team’s defensive side. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have spent plenty of picks on the defense but have yet to draft a player who looks like he can be All-Pro, or even pro bowl material on defense.
Los Angeles Chargers
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
Now, the Chargers going after Pitts is a decision that has to be made after they figure out what they’re going to do with Hunter Henry. Henry is currently playing on the franchise tag for an AAV of $10.6 million. Before both Travis Kelce and George Kittle signed their huge extensions, Henry was the highest paid tight end based on AAV. The Chargers are looking a having to chose between Henry and defensive end Melvin Ingram to bring back. A cheaper, possibly better option at tight end could be for the taking in the first round of the NFL Draft in Kyle Pitts.
NFC
Chicago Bears
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
Matt Nagy desperately needs to overhaul their offense if they want to compete with the Packers in the upcoming years. To start, I believe the biggest needs the Bears must address this offseason is the offensive line and Receiver. If the Bears want to find an adequate replacement for the expected departure of Allen Robinson, they’ll have to strongly consider using their first pick, however in this mock draft I have them assessing OT first.
Detroit Lions
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
With the departure of Stafford announced, Lions have a new QB coming to town. Over the next few weeks, the debate will be had regarding whether or not Detroit should trade down, especially since the team only possesses five total picks this year. Dan Campbell is in year 1, and as long as Rodgers is in GB, odds are they will not make the playoffs. Lions have many holes and the logical thing to do is to trade down and gather as much draft capital as possible. Look for WFT, NE, MIA, or IND as other potential trade partners.
The trade I mocked was the exact same as the Buf-Tampa trade that resulted in Josh Allen in Buffalo. Yes, you don’t need to trade 3 firsts to move up in the first round.
Green Bay Packers
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
Like the other 3 teams that made the Championship Weekend, the Packers have minimal needs. Kevin King was exposed versus the Bucs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a CB with the first round pick. If the Packers can add another monster upfront, it would help them in so many areas. For starters, it would make life easier on their inside linebackers and open up more gaps for the backer to fill in the running game. A player who can get after the quarterback by pushing the pocket would also alleviate some stress on the secondary and free up blockers for the Packers’ edge rushers.
Minnesota Vikings
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
With the 14th pick, the Vikings can go many routes, address the OL, draft an edge rusher, or fix the back end of the defense. With Spielman as GM, it is very unlikely that the Vikings will never draft an EDGE rusher in the first round. At 6-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O'Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run-blocker.
Dallas Cowboys
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Going into the 2021 draft, the Cowboys have multiple holes they need to address. To start they desperately need to address their secondary. With Slater, Sewell, Surtain, and Farley all gone, this is the worst possible scenario for the boys.
Aldon Smith has played well for the Cowboys this season and may have set himself up for a nice payday over the offseason. With Dallas in a less than ideal cap situation, they may choose to let Smith walk and try to replace him in the draft. In this scenario, Paye would make a ton of sense for the team if they end up picking towards the end of the top 10.
New York Giants
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
I think that the Giants are an ascending football team, but they need to be more explosive offensively. Waddle e might be the number one WR in the Class and has the size and speed to be the main target for Daniel Jones. One of the more bizarre stats to come out of the 2020 regular season was that the Giants’ top four pressure marks all came from interior defensive linemen. Leonard Williams (62 pressures), Dexter Lawrence (29), Dalvin Tomlinson (28) and B.J. Hill (22) all produced more quarterback pressures than New York’s top mark from an edge defender — Kyler Fackrell with just 19. By drafting an EDGE in the second round, they bring in a dire need.
Philadelphia Eagles
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
The Eagles have massive holes to fill and might have multiple key players from their SB team leaving this offseason. There’s no question that the Eagles need help at cornerback. They came into this season with Darius Slay as their top corner and even though he hasn’t been elite, he’s been the best CB1 they’ve had since Asante Samuel. The problem is that they lined up Avonte Maddox on the other side and Maddox just simply isn’t a good enough starting outside corner. The Eagles have struggled to draft cornerbacks — think back to Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas in 2017 — so it’s scary to think about them getting this wrong. But Surtain has an NFL pedigree and at 6-1, isn’t the type of undersized corner we’ve seen the Eagles trot out there during the Jim Schwartz era. Surtain is a true first-round pick and one of the best corners in this draft.
Washington Football Team
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
It's no surprise that the Football Team needs a QB, but they most likely need to give up an unbelievable amount of draft capitol if they want a taste at the top 4 QBs in the draft. With the abundance of QB’s in the market this offseason, it won’t be a surprise if they make a run at Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jimmy G, or Matt Ryan if they become available. Washington could bring in one of the elite Receivers in Free Agency, but Marshall at 51 is hard to pass up.
Atlanta Falcons
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Atlanta comes into the 2021 Draft in a unique position. They have plenty of talent, but a team full of aging superstars and an abysmal defense brought them to the number 4 pick. Most likely the top 6 will be Lawrence, Sewell and a run on QBs and WRs bringing the Falcons in a unique position. If they decide to draft a QB, they are in perfect position to pick one but I believe they can do many things. With Matt Ryan on the backend of his career and Julio Jones turning 33, ATL will need to do turn the page soon to be relevant again.
Carolina Panthers
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
If Trey Lance falls to 8, Carolina would be happy to pick Lance with the eighth pick. Drafting a quarterback is almost a certainty at this point but if the Panthers take the "aggressive" approach that new general manager Scott Fitterer has talked about, they will likely trade up for either BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields. Instead of a QB, they take Slater. Tackle in particular is a priority with the Panthers likely to move on from left tackle Russell Okung 32, and right tackle Taylor Moton likely to draw interest in free agency that could make him too costly.
The Carolina Panthers are going to need a long-term solution to their middle linebacker spot sooner rather than later and Nick Bolton fills the void left by Luke Kuechly. Nick Bolton is a physical hitter who has the right sort of speed to become a sideline-to-sideline force at the next level.
New Orleans Saints
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
*Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28*
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
The Saints have many decisions this offseason regarding their elite defensive that puts them in a tough spot. It’s currently uncertain what the New Orleans secondary will look like next season as Janoris Jenkins, PJ Williams, Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley are all set to be free agents, and adding a top tier talent like Onwuzurike and Grant could help the team for years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
With it a possibility that Shaq Barrett opts to leave in free agency, the Buccaneers could find themselves looking for a quarterback hunter. Ossai could fit right in with what they like to do on defense and create havoc for that defense. Should he slide to No. 25, Ossai should be ripe for the picking by the Tampa Bay front office.
LT Donovan Smith has been reliable in terms of his durability and availability, but his performance over the last five years has been inconsistent at best. He’s also scheduled to make more than $14 million next season, though none of that money is guaranteed. That means the Bucs could move on from him without any dead money, and considering how tight the team in terms of salary cap space, they could save a ton of money with a younger, cheaper option like Radunz.
Arizona Cardinals
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
With the gaping void left in the Arizona Cardinals secondary following the inevitable loss of franchise-cornerback Patrick Peterson, the 2021 NFL Draft offers an opportunity for Arizona to directly replace their isolation-corner with a prospect built in a similar mold. All-Pro safety Budda Baker looks to be one of the few returning members of the Arizona secondary and is in need of a complimenting talent on the opposite side of the hashes.
Los Angeles Rams
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
Going into the 2021 offseason, the Rams have quite a few question marks among the OL. Whitworth is old and the rest of the OL might be gone this offseason. They violently need to address the OL in the draft and this offseason. The Rams may have their most questions right now at the linebacker position and several key names could be gone by next year. Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler were lost this offseason, Samsom Ebukam will be a free agent next year, and Leonard Floyd was only signed to a one-year contract. Chazz Surratt is a must for the elite Rams D and provides Sean Mcvay with an athletic playmaker.
San Francisco 49ers
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
*Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second*
San Francisco has an important offseason in front of them if they want to continue being atop the NFC West. Injuries battered the 49ers this year and it was a disappointing season all around. The 49ers are in salary cap hell next season and needs to do something if they want to resign Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, and Jason Verrett among others.
Seattle Seahawks
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
Russell Wilson did not look comfortable at quarterback as his ecosystem became increasingly fragile this season. The success of the #LetRussCook movement, more or less, died as protection slowly got worse and worse. In the Wild Card game, Seattle's offensive line struggled mightily, allowing its worst pressure rate of the year - a 67 percent clip on all dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.

Hey guys! First ever post in this sub but I’ve been lurking for quite some time. I was recently laid off from my job due to COVID cutbacks so I’ve been working on completing a full two round mock for a while now to get my mind off of things.
Looking for as much feedback as I can get here. Let me know which guys are too high or too low. Are there any other needs you see your team prioritizing over the ones I’ve mocked? All feedback is appreciated!
ROUND ONE:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB) - Clemson
No explanation needed here. Sunshine Man good.
2. New York Jets - Justin Fields (QB) - Ohio State
Now is when the draft gets interesting. Reasonable arguments can be made here for Fields, Wilson, Sewell, and possibly even a trade down. I’m going with Justin Fields at this spot. I think Saleh is going to want a fresh start and his own guy to coach up. They’ll be tempted with offers here but even if they did trade down; the odds of their future draft ammunition getting them a chance to draft a QB prospect equally as great as Fields don’t seem very high to me.
3. Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans - Devonta Smith (WR) - Alabama
MIA trades 1.03, 1.18, 2022 1st, and Tua Tagovailoa to HOU for Deshaun Watson and 2022 5th
Where there’s smoke there’s fire. In my opinion this Texans/Watson fiasco is beyond repair. Likewise, I don’t think Miami would hesitate at the chance to grab Watson. They were already on the cusp of making the playoffs this past season so adding Watson is just the push they would need.
The Texans have a lot of options with this pick but I’ve got them taking the reigning heisman winner here. Setting up your new franchise QB with his old college teammate and giving him a true WR1 to work with seems like the best way to get off on the right foot with your new QB investment.
4. Carolina Panthers via Atlanta Falcons - Zach Wilson (QB) - BYU
ATL trades 1.04, 2021 5th to CAR for 1.08, 2021 3rd, and 2022 1st
I know this will look gross to Falcons and Panthers fans because it’s an inner division trade. Although they are uncommon the reality is that they do happen and I think the Panthers are more than willing with 1) the Broncos on their heels posing as a threat to move up for a franchise QB, 2) experiencing a full season of Teddy Bridgewater, and finally 3) they won’t have to give up the farm for only moving up 4 spots.
Why for the Falcons? Arthur Smith has no intentions on entering into a rebuild. Matt Ryan can still get it done and there’s too many other needs that trump QB right now so they decide to take advantage of their sweet draft positioning to build assets for the future at the cost of only a slight move down so that they can still get their guy(s).
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon
Sewell falling into the Bengals laps is a dream come true for their fans. They may be tempted with reuniting Chase and Burrow but after watching Burrow go down there is simply no greater need than protecting their franchise QB. Sewell is the best Tackle prospect on the board so he gets the nod here.
6. Philadelphia Eagles - Ja’Marr Chase (WR) - LSU
I waffled over this one quite a bit. I think the Eagles two biggest needs are CB and WR. Having their top choice of the elite CB’s here is really tough to pass on. However it sounds like they are doubling down on keeping Wentz so what better way to help out your franchise QB than getting him arguably the best WR in this class.
7. Detroit Lions - Micah Parsons (ILB) Penn State
I think DL/Edge might be a bigger need here for the Lions but their LB group is so talent deprived and Parsons is the best LB and best defensive prospect in the class imo. Parsons should have an immediate impact for the Lions and with back to back 1st round picks the past few years on CB and LB here, the Lions are now well on their way to reshaping their defense.
8. Atlanta Falcons via Panthers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE) - Miami
The Falcons pass rush stinks. To my knowledge they don’t have any EDGE guys signed next season that could be full time starters. CB and RB are also big needs but after whiffing badly on Vic Beasley and Takk McKinley I think Edge has to be priority #1 and they get their pick of whoever the highest EDGE prospect is on their board here.
9. Denver Broncos - Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech
I have QB and CB as the Broncos two biggest needs. I agonized over this one quite a bit with Lance still on the board. I just see Paton giving Lock one more year to prove himself. If it all goes to hell and Lock still stinks then Paton will probably just start over with his own Coach and QB of his choosing for next year. Farley may come with more injury question marks but I think he has a bit more upside and athleticism than the other CB’s.
10. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II (CB) - Alabama
The entire defense needs a whole lot of work. CB, DT, EDGE, S, all of it. Any type of offensive pick at this spot would be a real head scratcher. I’ve got them taking the next best available defensive player here. Diggs and Surtain II would be a solid foundation to build off of for their young secondary.
11. New York Giants - Kwity Paye (EDGE) - Michigan
I have EDGE, WR, and CB as the Giants three biggest needs. I think they would have preferred Chase or Smith at this spot but with both off the board I’ve got them addressing EDGE round one and looking to address WR round 2 or through free agency. Rousseau might be an easier transition for the Giants scheme but I think Graham will be able to work with Paye just fine.
12. San Francisco 49ers - Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina
I’m pretty sure that the top 5 or 6 CB’s for the 49ers are all entering some form of free agency. Sherman most likely isn’t coming back. I don’t see any bigger need for them than CB. I’m not sure if Surtain or Farley would fit better scheme wise but Horn is sorta the “best of the rest” among the top tier of CB’s. Lance would make a lot of sense here too but I think they will look to build upon their defense and give Jimmy G another shot at getting them back to the super bowl.
13. Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater (OT) - Northwestern
Kind of a no brainer here if Slater is still on the board. Chargers O-line group ranked as one of the worst among the league. I’ve got CB as another big need for the Chargers but with the top 3 CB prospects all off the board protecting Herbert needs to be top priority.
14. Washington Football Team via Minnesota Vikings - Trey Lance (QB) - North Dakota State
MIN trades 1.14 and 2021 5th to WAS for 1.19, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd, 2022 4th
With the threat of Lance potentially falling to the Patriots; Washington moves up to go get their QB. WFT fans might not be happy with taking on another project QB but I think Lance would actually be an attractive QB prospect for Ron. He has similar qualities to Cam when he was coming out and he can learn from a proven veteran like Alex Smith (Hey it worked for Mahomes right?)
Why for Vikings? Spielman has shown he’s more than willing to move around in the draft. With no 2nd round pick lined up I think he’s going to be looking to trade down and pick one up.
15. New England Patriots - Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama
The Patriots passing game was terrible this year and their entire WR group consists of below average guys. Waddle is a YAC monster and would significantly upgrade their WR group. I know this goes against Bill’s routine of trading back but when Waddle slides in the draft to #15 I think you have to take that kind of talent and run.
16. Arizona Cardinals - Eric Stokes (CB) - Georgia
This may seem like a reach but I think Stokes is going to see his draft stock rise quite a bit from where he’s being mocked once the draft rolls around. I don’t think he’s that far below the tier of Farley/Horn/Surtain II. I’ve got CB as their biggest need and Stokes fits like a glove here. Cardinals love to play man and Stokes is one of the best man CB’s in the draft.
17. Las Vegas Raiders - Christian Barmore (DT) - Alabama
The Raiders have holes all over their defense that need to be fixed. With all of the top CB’s off the board, I think they need to go with addressing the interior D-Line here. Barmore is the top interior defender in this class and had a great playoff showing. He would go a long way in helping clean up this defense.
18. Houston Texans via Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE) - Georgia
The Texans have needs all over their defense. I think they will look to go with an EDGE here and Ojulari is the next best available off my board.
19. Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw (OT) - Virginia Tech
The Vikings could go IOL depending on what the plan is with Cleveland but I see them taking the next best available Tackle here and working on improving their O-Line.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars via Chicago Bears - Kyle Pitts (TE) - Florida
CHI trades 1.20 and 2021 5th to JAC for 1.25, 2021 2nd, 2022 3rd
With Pitts sliding in the draft and the black hole the Jaguars have at TE I don’t think they would hesitate to grab an elite TE prospect for their new franchise QB. Pitts would give Lawrence an immediate red zone weapon and give the Jags a huge boost in skill position players to jumpstart their new offense under Meyer.
Why for the Bears? There is a lot of depth on the amount of OT/OG/C prospects in this draft. Picking up the first pick in the 2nd round here will be huge for them to address that need as well as the future draft capital.
21. Indianapolis Colts - Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama
I have QB and LT as the colts biggest needs. I think they will want to see what they have with Eason this year and/or kick the tires on a veteran QB. Leatherwood is a tackle prospect whose draft stock I expect to climb between now and the draft. Leatherwood started every game at LT allowing only two sacks and three pressures on the year.
22. Tennessee Titans - Joseph Ossai (EDGE) - Texas
Titans have needs all over the defense but their primary concern has to be getting a pass rusher imo. Ossai is the next best available on my board at this spot and someone that I think would be a nice fit for Vrabel’s defensive front.
23. New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks - Rashod Bateman (WR) - Minnesota
The Jets WR group is in major need of a talent upgrade. I think they’ll want to set up Fields with a great set of weapons from the jump. Bateman and signing an additional WR in free agency will help the rookie QB.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Liam Eichenberg (OT) - Notre Dame
I don’t think there is any greater need than improving the O-Line for the Steelers. Their run game was bad and they’ve got too many question marks with it going into the offseason to not address it here.
25. Chicago Bears via Jacksonville Jaguars - Wyatt Davis (IOL) - Ohio State
Mac Jones will be tempting here but there is no greater need than improving the O-Line for the Bears during this draft imo. Davis is my top IOL prospect and should be an instant contributor between the tackles for them.
26. Cleveland Browns - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (OLB) - Notre Dame
I think we could see the Browns go all defense the first three rounds. They have needs everywhere on the defensive side but their LB group is among the worst in the league. I think Owusu-Koramoah would be a great get here.
27. Baltimore Ravens - Zaven Collins (OLB) - Tulsa
I’ve got WR, OLB, IOL, and TE all as pretty big needs for the Ravens this draft. With the uncertainty of Judon, Ngakou, and Bowser returning I think OLB will be the first need they address and Collins is the next best available on my board.
28. New Orleans Saints - Mac Jones (QB) - Alabama
The Saints probably have bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball but I think it’s worth taking a look at Mac Jones at this spot. If he ends up playing well then having that 5th year option on such a cheap QB salary long term will do wonders for them as they look to rebuild.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Samuel Cosmi (OT) - Texas
I think the Bucs are going to be planing on taking Donovan’s replacement at Tackle with this pick. They’ve got other needs on the defensive side of the ball but with their limited title window, protecting Tom Brady has to be up near the top list of their priorities.
30. Buffalo Bills - Daviyon Nixon (DT) - Iowa
I think Buffalo should be addressing their D-Line with this pick. I’ve also got CB as a pretty big need for them but with how they were gashed in the run game all season by opposing RB’s I think that’s where they will look at this spot.
31. Green Bay Packers - Nick Bolton (ILB) - Missouri
The Packers are a tough one to pin down. I’ve got ILB as a pretty big need for them along with WR, CB, and DT. I think Bolton would be a great option here but admittedly it doesn’t seem like the kind of choice Gute would make.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Creed Humphrey (OG/C) - Oklahoma
There’s a couple of EDGE prospects I considered here but the Chiefs bread and butter is their high powered offense and I’ve got them looking at IOL here. They should be returning some notable guards (Duvernay-Tardif and Niang) but I don’t think they have any great options right now for center. Humphrey should fill in nicely here.
ROUND TWO:
33. Chicago Bears via Jacksonville Jaguars - Jalen Mayfield (OT) - Michigan
34. New York Jets - Alijah Vera-Tucker (IOL) - USC
35. Atlanta Falcons - Najee Harris (RB) - Alabama
36. Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans - Rondale Moore (WR) - Purdue
37. Philadelphia Eagles - Tyson Campbell (CB) - Georgia
38. Cincinnati Bengals - Trey Smith (IOL) - Tennessee
39. Carolina Panthers - Pat Freiermuth (TE) - Penn State
40. Denver Broncos - Dylan Moses (OLB) - Alabama
41. Detroit Lions - Jayson Oweh (EDGE) - Penn State
42. New York Giants - Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR) - LSU
43. San Francisco 49ers - Travis Etienne (RB) - Clemson
44. Dallas Cowboys - Carlos Basham Jr. (EDGE) - Wake Forest
45. Jacksonville Jaguars via Minnesota Vikings - Shaun Wade (CB) - Ohio State
46. New England Patriots - Kyle Trask (QB) - Florida
47. Los Angeles Chargers - Josh Myers (IOL/C) - Ohio State
48. Las Vegas Raiders - Trevon Moehrig (S) - TCU
49. Arizona Cardinals - Javonte Williams (RB) - North Carolina
50. Miami Dolphins - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE) - Miami
51. Minnesota Vikings via Washington Football Team - Jevon Holland (S) - Oregon
52. Chicago Bears - Kadarius Toney (WR) - Florida
53. Tennessee Titans - Jay Tufele (DT) - USC
54. Indianapolis Colts - Patrick Jones II (EDGE) - Pitt
55. Pittsburgh Steelers - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) - Florida State
56. Seattle Seahawks - Teven Jenkins (OT) - Oklahoma State
57. Los Angeles Rams - Chazz Surratt (OLB) - North Carolina
58. Baltimore Ravens - Landon Dickerson (IOL/C) - Alabama
59. Cleveland Browns - Marvin Wilson (DT) - Florida State
60. New Orleans Saints - Paris Ford (S) - Pittsburgh
61. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tyler Shelvin (DT) - LSU
62. Buffalo Bills - Hamilcar Rashed (EDGE) - Oregon State
63. Green Bay Packers - Paulson Adebo (CB) - Stanford
64. Kansas City Chiefs - Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) - USC

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs are now over, and there's a lot to really think about. In this mock draft, I have a few trades, including a block buster to help find the successor for a QB headed for Canton, as well as a blockbuster deal in which a team that is currently at dumpster fire status get's their lost draft capita back. Here's the mock draft.
1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Nothing to say here. They didn't call this season 'Tank for Trevor' for nothing, now did they?
2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
TRADE - Dolphins send 3rd overall pick to the New Orleans Saints, in exchange for 28th overall pick in 2020, Saints' 2nd round pick in 2020, Saints' 3rd round pick in 2020, Saints' 1st round pick in 2021, Saints 3rd round pick in 2021, and Saints 4th round pick in 2021, and maybe more...
3 - New Orleans Saints - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The Drew Brees era has ended in New Orleans after a long, and impressive run. At 42 years of age, Brees walks away from the game as 13x pro bowler, a two time OPOTY winner, a super bowl champion (2009), and many other accolades and accomplishments under his belt. With the greatest QB in Saint's history now gone, it's time for New Orleans to fill in the big shoes left by the legend. The Saints are in no position to blow up their roster and tank in the wake of Brees' apparent retirement. They've got a 20+ million dollar WR in Michael Thomas, one of the highest paid RBs in Alvin Kamara, a star-studded OL, a great defense featuring Cameron Jordan, the breakout Trey Hendrickson, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, and Malcolm Jenkins. This team really can't afford to tank for a top QB in 2022 like Sam Howell, or Spencer Rattler. What they can afford, is to give up a lot to receive a lot in Justin Fields. While his 2020 season wasn't anything to ride home about, Justin Fields is still more than likely going to have a great career in the NFL, and frankly what better place for him to go than the Big Easy, which will have a fantastic team around him unlike many other high end QBs in the draft. New Orleans will most certainly be giving up their first round picks for this year, and next year in order to land the coveted college football superstar, and set up their franchise for possibly another 12-15 years.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
QB is at the top of Atlanta's wishlist, but if they are unable to land neither Wilson, nor Fields, then Atlanta could target one of the biggest receiving talents in CFB history, in Devonta Smith to create the best WR core in the entire NFL. Reportedly, Julio Jones has been the center of trade discussions with the Falcons, as they enter a new era after firing coach Dan Quinn. If Julio goes, then Smith, who is wickedly talented at route running, & separation, could provide the Falcon's receiving department with more than enough insurance if Jones departs. If Jones doesn't leave, then you've still got a ridiculous WR trio for at least the next two years, until Calvin Ridley hits free agency.
5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Sewell is a generational talent at OT, and if the former Outland Trophy winner were to fall to the Bengals at #5, then it's a no-brainer to get him to protect Burrow. Sewell is just 20 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and with his youth, he could have a 15+ year career barring any injury.
6 - Philadelphia Eagles - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Jalen Hurts has some promise in Philly, but he needs some targets. Neither Desean Jackson, nor Alshon Jeffrey can stay healthy, and all you have left is Greg Ward, who is becoming a free agent, and Travis Fulgham who fell off hard after a pretty impressive four game stretch earlier this year. It's time for Philadelphia to get a new WR1, and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase has all of the makings to be the next big thing in Philly. Chase's ridiculous 2019 campaign was so good, that he didn't even need to play in 2020 in order to cement his status as a top 10 pick. It's universally agreed that he is a top 10 level prospect, and his rookie year in Philly should be special.
7 - Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The three top receivers for Detroit will become free agents. While the Lions will likely retain at least one of them (probably going to be Golliday), they will need to reload in this department in order to keep their offense up. Jaylen Waddle was on pace for a ridiculous 2020 season, up until he broke his ankle last October, but in the games we did see him, he was arguably just as unguardable as Devonta Smith. While Smitty was the precise tactician in that stacked Bama receiving corps, Waddle was the dynamite playmaker, who was one of the top downfield threats in the country. Waddle will most certainly make Detroit explosive upon arrival.
8 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parson, LB, Penn State
I originally had Carolina taking Isaiah Simmons last season, but they passed on him for Derrick Brown instead. Ever since the departure of Luke Kuechly, the team has been in dire need of a leader at LB, and Penn State's Micah Parsons is the one to do it. Parsons can play the Panthers system, and his quickness, and instincts are incredible for the position.
TRADE - Denver Broncos send 9th overall pick + more to the Houston Texans in exchange for QB Deshaun Watson, + a late draft pick.
9 - Houston Texans - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The second big shocker of the night. In this scenario, Denver wins the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and in return Houston gets its lost draft capita from the O'Brien era. Houston could use this pick to get a lineman like Slater, or a DB like Surtain or Farley, but Kyle Pitts at this point is the best overall player on the board, and he's one of the best TE prospects to come out in a good while. Pitts will likely be the top receiver for Houston, even as a rookie, Deshaun Watson gets an acceptable trade for his sake, and Denver FINALLY gets its QB of the future. This was my favorite move on this mock draft.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Completely unrelated, but I just wanted check in and see if y'all were still them boys...nah I'm just kidding. But in all honesty, the Cowboys need some help in their secondary, since they just lost Byron Jones a year ago, and Chidobe Awuzie, plus a few others enter free agency, leaving just 2nd year man Trevon Diggs by himself. Reunite him with his former college teammate, Patrick Surtain II, the son of Patrick Sr, who was a 3x pro bowler as a DB during his time in the league. Surtain is a smooth operating corner, whose efforts with the Tide in 2020 earned him SEC DPOTY honors.
11 - New York Giants - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I think that the G-Men will get some pass rushing help in free agency, by way of someone like Haason Reddick or Matt Judon. If they do that, which they probably will, then they can go after the stud LB prospect of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who had a huge 2020 season, winning the Butkus award, and helping Notre Dame make it to the College Football Playoff. JOK has some fantastic instincts, and some frightening closing speed to attack the backfield, and make plays. Not to mention, he is small enough to where he can drop back into coverage, but big enough not to get pushed around.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
It's become evident that Jimmy G just isn't the guy to hold the reins for the 49er offense in the coming years. He's pretty average as an NFL QB in general, and he's well below average for a QB that has a nine figure contract, and on top of that, he has played only one full season as the starter with San Fran, missing 13 games in 2018, and 10 games in 2020. While I expect Jimmy G to start next year, I think it's time for San Fran to get the next guy for the job. Mac Jones, a Heisman finalist this past season had just about as perfect of a season you could have for a college QB. Jones has pinpoint accuracy, and terrific decision making. I think that Jones will stew behind Garoppolo, and get coached up in his rookie season, then he will eventually get turned lose, in the 49ers offense.
13 - Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has risen up draft boards from 2nd round status, to early 1st round status without even playing game during 2020. Many scouts highlight his brilliant performance against Ohio State in 2019, in which he stifled current NFL star edge rusher Chase Young in their showdown. Slater is versatile enough to play at OG as well, which is really where the Chargers could use some help at right now.
14 - Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Minnesota's ability to protect Kirk Cousins was not too good in 2020. Cousins was sacked 39 times last season. Christian Darrisaw is one of the best offensive tackles in the class with good size for the position, and a ton of praise from scouts around the country.
15 - New England Patriots - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Patriots could use some help up front for their DL. They allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the entire league across all of last regular season, allowing around 131 yards per game. When you compete in a conference that has runners like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, the entire Ravens backfield, Josh Allen when he feels dangerous, and even Kansas City who isn't really bad at the run themselves, then you need to do what you can to slow that down. Meet Christian Barmore, the massive Alabama defensive lineman who gained a ton of positive attention thanks to his dominant performance against Ohio State in the national championship game. Barmore, in my opinion has ascended to the top of the IDL big board, thanks to his disruptiveness, his shocking quickness, and his ability to rush the passer, as well as a disrupt the running game make him a great get for the New England Patriots at 15th overall.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Now while I did say that Najee Harris was the best RB in this class, I just feel that Travis Etienne fits the Cardinal's system more than Najee. Etienne reminds me a lot of Kenyan Drake, who hits free agency this spring. He's a long built, yet quick runner with a keen ability to catch the football. Etienne could make Arizona's defense a legit threat in the coming years.
17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
When it comes to drafting in the first round, the Raiders do their own thing. They've always been one to reach with their first round selection, showing this with picks like Kolton Miller, Karl Joseph, Damon Arnette, and most infamous as of recent, Clelin Ferrell, who they picked over Josh Allen, which I am still frustrated about to this day. I don't see the Raiders leaving this odd, and borderline comedic trend behind in Oakland, and as a matter of fact, I can see history repeating itself year after year. Jaelan Phillips, who used to play for UCLA, and was a 5 star prospect in high school, finally seemed to hit his stride after dealing with many injuries, and transferring across the country to Miami. Phillips athletic ability, and natural pass rushing tools were on display in the latter half of Miami's 2020 season, and while Phillips currently has a 2nd round grade, I don't see this stopping the Raiders from passing on him over other players projected to go in round 1 (however I think there is a lot more upside to Phillips than past 1st round picks by the Raiders).
18 - Miami Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
I've become extremely impressed with Nagurski Award winner, Zaven Collins, a defender that combines a staggering amount of size (6'4", 260 lbs), and a surprising amount of speed, and mobility in coverage that makes Collins such a difficult player to face. Collins can be an excellent addition to the Dolphins defense.
19 - Washington Football Team - Trey Lance, QB, ND State
Washington is one QB away from being a legitimate contender in the NFC; not a 7-9 division leader, not fringe wild card team, a legit contender. Do I think this happens within a year? No. If Washington ends up with Trey Lance, they must use him right. He needs to be brought up in the shadows of a veteran QB for at least a season, before getting on the field, similar to what Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes. The starter for that KC team with rookie Mahomes was Alex Smith. The potential starter for this team with a rookie Trey Lance: Alex Smith. Of course with the depletion of Smith's career because of that brutal leg injury in 2018, Smith may not be playing for Washington despite an inspiring comeback season, potentially the greatest comeback season ever for any NFL player.
20 - Chicago Bears - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The Outland Trophy winner for Alabama has moved around the entire line like many linemen do under coach Nick Saban. The Bears need some help up front, and Leatherwood is an extremely versatile option who is as good of a run blocker as they come.
21 - Indianapolis Colts - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
T.Y. Hilton, who has really fallen off recently, as well as Zach Pascal, are both free agents for Indy. The only guy they've got is Michael Pittman, who they drafted just last year. While I expect big things from the former USC standout in his sophomore season, this WR group needs a ton of assistance due to it's lack of diversity. Ohio State's Chris Olave was one of Justin Fields' favorite targets across the QB's two year career with the Buckeyes. Olave is sound route runner, with good hands, and solid ability in getting separation.
22 - Tennessee Titans - Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia
My team, the Tennessee Titans is probably the most desperate team for a franchise pass rusher. Seeing this pass rush week in, and week out was painful. They recorded the 3rd least sacks, and opposing QBs averaged a 97.5 passer rating (9th highest), when facing Tennessee. The weak pass rush gave QBs more time to make throws downfield, thus tiring the secondary, and making the defense slower. Azeez Ojulari is one of the better LB prospects in this draft class, showing the ability to play standup, but also along the edge, which is where he did really well at in his last season with the Bulldogs. Check out his games against Tennessee, and Alabama, and you will see how he was able to outclass many offensive linemen in those two games.
TRADE - New York Jets send 23rd overall pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the 26th overall pick, as well as a mid round pick in either 2021 or 2022.
23 - Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
The Browns could be looking for a complementary edge rusher for Myles Garrett with Olivier Vernon departing in free agency. Vernon surged late in 2020, but a very unfortunate achilles injury derailed his hopes to make some more noise in the post season. Kwity Paye, who was projected to go 2nd-3rd round after 2019, exploded thanks to a chaotic performance against Minnesota, in which he had 3 sacks in a row on a 4th qtr drive. While Paye may have small stature, he has enough upside that should make Cleveland want to roll the dice on him.
24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Pittsburgh has struggled to run the football. They were dead last in total rushing yards as a team, with the 5th least total rushing attempts, and the least YPC (3.6). James Conner and Benny Snell just don't seem to have the answers. But my solution is for Pittsburgh to dip into the pool known as RBU, aka Alabama. Najee Harris was the Doak Walker winner for a reason, becoming a wrecking ball bruiser, that just so happens to be able to catch the ball really well, and jump over defenders that are standing straight up. Najee can help make Big Ben, or the next Steeler QB's job easier with his versatile skillset for the position.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars* - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have provided some of the best linemen in the NFL, like Ronnie Stanley, Zack Martin, and Quenton Nelson to name a few. Liam Eichenberg made the first team all ACC, and was a consensus All-American in 2020. He has overall very sound fundamentals, and I actually think he has the potential to be a legitimate lineman in the NFL.
26 - New York Jets* - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
As previously mentioned, the Jets will be selecting Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. With Breshad Perriman entering free agency, the Jets need a receiving facelift in order to provide Wilson with the much needed tools for success. Bateman appears to have the potential to be a WR1, and help give the Jet's atrocious offense something to be excited about.
27 - Baltimore Ravens - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU
The latest product of LSU, Marshall has been regularly playing since last year, getting reps alongside Ja'Marr Chase, and current pro bowl WR Justin Jefferson. The Ravens offense will get jolt of energy from Marshall, who is impressively built for the position, and who has a keen ability to run routes well.
28 - Miami Dolphins* - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
The Dolphins use their second 1st round pick of the draft to help protect Tua. Samuel Cosmi has the positional versatility of a Bama lineman, with the build of the ideal OT. His large stature towers at 6'7", over 300 lbs. He'll add some legit experience points.
29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joseph Ossai, LB, Texas
Thanks to the Buccaneers, I was right about TB (both the team and the player) pulling the upset in NOLA. Regardless, at the end of this season, the Bucs need to fill some much anticipated holes this offseason, and many players are likely gone. If Shaquil Barrett is one of those, then Tampa needs an edge rusher, and they need one pronto.
30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
The Chiefs are about as perfect as you can get on offense, but some help up front won't hurt at all. Vera-Tucker from USC showed that he has the skill to play at IOL, and OT. While he is built for OG.
31 - Buffalo Bills - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
A draft pick like this could be a steal for Buffalo, with Nick Bolton providing several bolts of energy, and momentum into these nights. Bolton is a quick, powerful linebacker, and one of the SEC's finest.
32 - Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
If your name is either Green Bay, Buffalo, or Kansas City then you can really get under the skin of defensive coordinators by taking this guy. Rondale Moore when healthy, is a juggernaut, who is one of the best receivers after the catch. If the Packers decide to finally take a WR in round1, then the earth could shatter.
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THANK YOU FOR READING, COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK, GOOD NIGHT

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We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.
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1. Arizona Cardinals

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Why they can win the division:
Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.
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Why they could finish last again:
Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.
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Bottom line:
I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.
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2. Detroit Lions

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Why they can win the division:
Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.
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Why they could finish last again:
Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.
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Bottom line:
I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.
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3. Miami Dolphins

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Why they can win the division:
When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.
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Why they could finish last again:
As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.
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Bottom line:
As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.
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4. Los Angeles Chargers

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Why they can win the division:
First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.
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Why they could finish last again:
I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.
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Bottom line:
In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.
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5. Washington Redskins

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Why they can win the division:
These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.
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Why they could finish last again:
Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.
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Bottom line:
These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.
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6. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Why they can win the division:
I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.
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Why they could finish last again:
I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.
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Bottom line:
The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.
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7. Carolina Panthers

Why they can win the division:
Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.
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Why they could finish last again:
Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.
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Bottom line:
The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.
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https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
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8. Cincinnati Bengals

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Why they can win the division:
We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.
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Why they could finish last again:
As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.
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Bottom line:
I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.
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If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU