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Official r/NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 11 Official NFL Power Rankings! It was an eventful weekend, all that fans (of most teams) could reasonably ask for. Whose top 15 are upside down? Is any team more PFF than substance? Happy 2 million, Discuss! 31/32 reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Steelers +1 10-0 Going into Thanksgiving after a solid win against the hopeless Jaguars, if the Steelers win vs the Ravens, they're in. That's right, if they beat Baltimore, the Steelers clinch a playoff spot by Week 11. Meanwhile, the Ravens know their back is against the wall after losing a tough one against the Titans and being outside of the cutoff line for the postseason. A loss against the Steelers takes their playoff odds down to 50-50, while a hot Browns team beating the same reeling Jaguars team brings their playoff chances to 75%. Expect the Ravens take their frustrations out on the Steelers in what will be both teams biggest test this season. The Ravens are desperate now and that makes them even more dangerous. Even more dangerous if they have the beerbug. If the game is postponed, disregard all of this.
2. Chiefs -1 9-1 The Chiefs have some soul searching to do on defense after another abysmal performance against the Raiders. Unlike the first matchup against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense was able to bail out poor performances from the defense and special teams this time thanks to the usual suspects on offense. Travis Kelce continued his otherworldly year. Tyreek Hill was as great as always. Patrick Mahomes made a game-winning drive with only 1:43 look way too easy. Even if the Chiefs defense has off days the Chiefs are always going to be competitive due to those 3 guys. They might have to lean on them, even more, when the Chiefs go to Tampa Bay next week.
3. Saints +1 8-2
4. Rams +6 7-3 Jordan Fuller is the superior 199th pick.
5. Packers -2 7-3 "MVS giveth, MVS taketh away"
6. Colts +7 7-3 The Colts drive to close the game after stopping the Packers on a late 4th and 1 was the most poorly executed drive this ranker has ever seen. It's a testament to this team's heart and talent that they still pulled out a W after that debacle. Sunday's game was one of the biggest in recent Indy football and the Colts look to surge into the back stretch of the season.
7. Seahawks +5 7-3 The Seahawks defense won the game on a Carlos Dunlap sack on a three man rush against Kyler Murray. This team is provocative.... gets the people goin. And the fans are here for it (RIP blood pressure). A long break between Thursday night and the game Monday night should mean the returns of Chris Carson, Shaquil Griffin, and Ethan Pocic. After a bit of a slump, the Seahawks next 4 opponents consist of the NFC East (minus the Cowboys) and the Jets. It's all comin' together, baby.
8. Bills -- 7-3 The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all lost this week, which is about as good of a bye week as the Bills can ask for. This has been a very weird season with a lot of flukey wins and losses. Despite losing to them (and getting their teeth kicked in by one), it’s hard to say the Bills are objectively worse than Arizona or Tennessee. A Hail Mary ended one, and there was a whole string of strange, confusing events leading up to the other that made it a tough game to prepare for. This isn’t to say Buffalo didn’t deserve these losses, but in such an up-and-down year around the whole league, 7-3 feels pretty damn good. Now, it’s time to make the final push for the division.
9. Buccaneers -4 7-4 He was excessively loyal to his coordinators. No matter their follies, no matter the incompetence on full display, and no matter the need for change, he insisted they continue in their duties. He refused to step in to call plays until it was too late, and by that point, the writing was already on the wall for his job. This of course references former Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The parallels are there in the present, and after last night's Rams game (which included a rollout from Tom Cement Shoes Brady), OC Byron Leftwich has little confidence from Bucs fans. They better wake up, because Patrick Mahomes is next.
10. Titans +4 7-3 The Titans were able to once again slow the Ravens offense enough to keep pace through the first three quarters and set up an eleven-point fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. In overtime, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to score a second walk off touchdown in the same season.
11. Ravens -5 6-4 This ranker would opt to write a blurb, but Greg Roman forced him to write a message to Hollywood instead. Can the Steelers be beaten without a DL? What about with two running backs on the COVID list? Asking for a friend.
12. Cardinals -5 6-4 Leading the league in penalties (now 9 more than the next most penalized team) was bound to factor into a loss at some point. The offensive line also had their worst game of the season as Seattle's pass defense looked elite. Hopefully the teak used the extended time to work on some things and Murray's shoulder had enough time to heal. Sunday's game against the up and down Patriots will be absolutely critical.
13. Raiders -- 6-4 Bad officiating, bad defense, and scoring 30+ points and losing. Sunday night was exactly what you expect when you watch a Raiders game. The bright side for Raiders fans, they dominated KC on the road and barely scraped out a win after coming off a bye in Vegas. The Raiders can beat any team in the league, unfortunately their defense makes it so any team can beat them as well.
14. Browns +1 7-3 The Browns are just two wins away from the first winning season since 2007 and third winning season in TWENTY YEARS. The Browns will face the struggling Jaguars next week.
15. Dolphins -6 6-4 After a few weeks of glorious hope, Dolphins fans are welcomed back to the standard mood. Though the team's future still looks bright, this game was a hard reminder that the team is not yet all the way complete, and still has some glaring holes. Now the Dolphins travel to the winless Jets to see if they pull off the easy win, or if the long history of odd games in this rivalry continues.
16. Bears +2 5-5 The bye week featured the most watchable performance from the Bears' offense all season.
17. Panthers +3 4-7 The first shutout in five years was exactly what P.J. "Matty Ice" Walker and his two end zone interceptions needed. Even if this game was somehow closer than the end result, the defense really stepped up. A perfect 52 yard bomb to DJ Moore deserves specific recognition, as well as Brian Burns' overall game film.
18. 49ers +1 4-6 Bye Week- Hopefully it allows enough time to get players off the Covid list.
19. Vikings -3 4-6 Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing touchdowns, Adam Thielen leads the league in receiving touchdowns, Justin Jefferson is on pace to break Randy Moss's rookie receiving record, Kirk Cousins ranks 6th in PFF grade... and yet none of it matters because half of the Vikings' defense is on IR.
20. Patriots -3 4-6 Pass protection and defensive secondary struggled. Run game disappeared in the second half. lost Rex. Not Good!
21. Broncos +4 4-6 Tua learned a very important lesson on Sunday. No matter how good your team is, no matter how hapless the Broncos appear to be, the power of Mile High bullshit will break you. Despite having an awful start after game after game of awful offensive play, the Broncos strung together just enough yardage to complement an amazing defensive performance to squeak out a win. Ultimately meaningless except for one point — Vic Fangio has now won as many games as Vance Joseph.
22. Chargers +1 3-7 This game had all of the hallmarks of Chargers football: inconsistent and mistake-prone offense, a defense that only lasts 30 minutes, and incompetent special teams play. However, the Chargers hung on to win the game, probably because the other team was the Jets. Keenan Allen had a career day, as his 16 receptions in a game is a franchise record. The Herbert-Allen connection continues to grow stronger and will hopefully be a focal point of the offense for years to come. The Chargers will don the navy unis again in a cross-country tilt against the Bills next week.
23. Falcons -1 3-7 Thank you @Saints for the opportunity to realize a top ten draft/pick. And thank you to the fans and the city of Atlanta for putting up with the Falcons...
24. Texans +4 3-7 Every win against the Pats feels like a gift, even when they're as garbage as they are this year. Seeing Bill Belichick scowl at his team's loss never fails to brighten the spirits of all other football fans.
25. Lions -4 4-6 The offense was actually terrible. This Lions team is a shell of the offensive strength it had last year. After being shut out by an XFL QB, Patricia's seat must be scorching. Technically still in the playoff hunt, but unless the Lions blowout the Texans on thanksgiving.... don't count on it.
26. Giants +1 3-7 If you're going to have a Covid outbreak you might as well do it on your bye week. Here's hoping everyone makes a quick recovery and limits the spread to family members. The NFC East now has an entire division of 3-win teams, which means this dumpster fire of a division is more up for grabs than it's been all year. Big Blue heads to Cincinnati to take on the Burrow-less Bengals next.
27. Washington FT +2 3-7 And here we are. Come Thanksgiving, The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will battle it out for 1st place in the NFC LEAST. The winner standing tall at checks notes 4-7... This division is a toss up and we're really looking at a 5-11 or 6-10 team hosting a wildcard playoff game.
28. Eagles -2 3-6-1 Real talk. Carson Wentz is among the worst, if not the absolute worst, starting quarterback currently in the NFL. Doug Pederson's magic from the 2017 season is dead and buried in a 50 foot deep hole in the Vet graveyard. Jason Peters is the worst overall player in the entire league. It is time for Doug to give up playcalling to someone with an iota of common sense. It is time to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, if only to keep Wentz healthy for next season. It is time for Eagles' fans to accept the fact that being 1st in a division while 3-6-1 is not a "positive takeaway."
29. Cowboys +1 3-7 Winners? For the first time in a while, Cowboys fans feel hope.
30. Bengals -6 2-7-1 The Bengals were never going to make the playoffs in 2020, they only had one goal for a successful season, keep Joe Burrow healthy. The front office and coaching staff failed to do that. Because Mike Brown won't step down or move aside, the changes need to start with Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, Head Coach Zac Taylor, Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, and offensive line coach Jim Turner. All four have contributed towards the catastrophic failure that is the Bengals in 2020 and need to be let go. For the remainder of the season the only goal is to land a top three pick and draft Penei Sewell.
31. Jaguars -- 1-9 It was not a trap game. It was, however, Shad Khan's 100th loss since buying the Jaguars. That doesn't count for much, but... no. No it's all just terrible. Send help.
32. Jets -- 0-10 The Jets have become the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention, considerably hurting their chances at making the playoffs.
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Juicy's First Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft (3 Rounds). Trades At The Top. Pick By Pick Analysis Continued In Comments.

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.
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The Result of 10 Random Searches on Pro Football Reference

So I saw this post by u/mjd1119 on baseball the other day, and it intrigued me a lot. In the post, OP goes to baseball-reference.com and uses a feature that allows the user to go to a completely random player, box score, or other statistic. OP did this 10 times and wrote down each result they got, with some facts about the results. I saw the post and decided I wanted to try the same thing, but with football. Again, credit to u/mjd1119 for the post idea.
Result #1: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons - November 4th, 2007
Heading into Week 9 of the 2007 NFL season, both the 49ers and Falcons were not in great shape. Both teams had not-so-impressive records, with the Falcons at 1-6 and 49ers at 2-5. This was a good old-fashioned Tank Bowl.
Overall, there wasn't really anything amazing about this game. Joey Harrington led the Falcons to a 20-16 win while going 14-25 on pass attempts for 138 yards with 0 passing touchdowns and 1 interception. Even with this subpar stat line, he still outperformed 49ers QB Alex Smith, who went 17-38 for 149 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs.
Also, Vegas got this one almost completely right, having the Falcons at -3.5.
Result #2: Ron Baker
Ron Baker was a right guard who played for the Baltimore Colts from 1978-1979, and the Philadelphia Eagles from 1980-1988. He only started in 3 games in 2 seasons for the Colts, but while on the Eagles, he started in every game he played in from 1981-1987. In his career, he had 4 fumble recoveries, but never had more than one is a season.
Oddly enough, in 1980 he returned a kickoff. It was in his only game he played that season, and it was also his first season for the Eagles. He was only able to return the kickoff for 6 yards. In the following season, he was made a right guard after not having an assigned position for his first 3 seasons. Guess he just wasn't cut out to be a kickoff returner.
Result #3: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - January 1st, 2017
In the final week of the 2016 NFL season, the 2-13 49ers faced off against the 9-5-1 Seahawks. Despite having a bad season, the 49ers kept it close against the playoff-bound Seahawks, only falling short by 2 points in a 25-23 loss despite Vegas having the Seahawks at -11.5.
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson went 19-32 for 258 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs before being taken out late in the game for rookie QB Trevone Boykin, who went 4-6 for 42 yards and no TDs or INTs. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick had a good game despite the loss, going 17-22 for 215 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs, earning a QB rating of 122.3.
Result #4: Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons - September 30th, 1979
In Week 5 of the 1979 NFL season, the 3-1 Redskins and 2-2 Falcons faced off on a warm 72º day in Atlanta. Despite Vegas having the Falcons at -3, the Redskins won this game 16-7.
Redskins QB Joe Theismann had a pretty average game, going 19-26 for 233 yards and 0 TDs with 1 INT.
On the other hand, Falcons QB Steve Bartowski had a terrible game. Going 6-26 for 105 yards and 0 TDs with 3 INTs, he earned an abysmal 4.3 QB rating.
Result #5: Tonawanda Kardex Career Receiving Leaders
The Tonawanda Kardex were a team that played in the NFL in 1921. They played only 1 game in the team's entire existence - a loss to the Rochester Jeffersons 45-0, and nothing they did in that game was documented.
So since they literally have no stats other than a 45-0 loss, they obviously don't have any career receiving leaders. So I'm just going to talk about the team instead.
The Tonawanda Kardex are the shortest-lived franchise in NFL history. They played in the New York Pro Football League from 1916-1919, were independent in 1920, and played in the NFL in 1921. They were a successful independent team in 1920, and had high hopes for the NFL. They began the 1921 season still as an independent team, and played 2 games before playing their only NFL game. Those 2 games were a 0-0 tie vs. the Syracuse Pros, and a 9-7 win against the Cleveland Panthers. However, after the embarrassing shutout loss to Rochester, they left the league after playing only one game as it was too expensive for the owners to keep the team in the NFL.
Result #6: Jack Call
Jack Call was a half back who played for the Baltimore Colts from 1957-1958 and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1959. During his career, he only started in 3 games, all of them for Baltimore. In those games, he rushed 70 times for 299 yards and 0 TDs.
In 1958, he had some ups and downs. A down was that he fumbled 3 times on 37 carries and did not recover any of them. An up was that he won the NFL Championship with the Baltimore Colts.
Result #7: K'Lavon Chaisson
First of all, K'Lavon Chaisson sounds like a name straight out of the Key & Peele East/West Bowl.
K'Lavon Chaisson is a rookie linebacker currently playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was drafted by the Jaguars as the 20th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He has started 2 out of 15 games this season and has 1 sack, 16 combined and 10 solo tackles, and 8 QB hits.
Result #8: Houston Oilers at Boston Patriots - October 13, 1968
In Week 6 of the 1968 AFL season, the 2-2 Boston Patriots, playing at Fenway Park, hosted the 1-4 Houston Oilers. The Oilers would go on to shut out the Patriots 16-0 despite both QBs having pretty bad games.
Oilers QB Bob Davis rushed 7 times for 59 yards and a TD. However, his passing game was not as good, going 10-25 for 119 yards and 0 TDs with 1 INT.
Bob "Lamar Jackson" Davis's passing game was still better than the Patriots' Mike Taliaferro, who went 8-34 for 98 yards and 0 TDs with 3 INTs, earning him a dismal QB rating of 2.8.
Result #9: John Brandes
John Brandes did not have a career to remember. He started in only 2 games in his career, all during his rookie season as a tight end with the Indianapolis Colts in 1987. In those 2 games, he had 5 receptions for 35 yards and 0 TDs.
It all went downhill from there. He didn't start in another game in his career, and had no receptions for the rest of his career. However, he did have a kickoff return for 10 yards and also had 3 fumbles. That's right- at least according to Pro Football Reference, he had 3 fumbles without a single reception for the rest of his career.
Result #10: 1983 Dallas Cowboys Team Vegas Lines
The 1983 Dallas Cowboys were favored to win in almost every game of the 1983 NFL season. Despite this, their expected W-L record was 10.6-5.4.
They ended up both exceeding and not meeting expectations, as they went 12-4 on the season and finished 2nd in the NFC East. Remember the days when you could go 12-4 and still not win the NFC East? Oh, how the times have changed.

Anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed! This was really fun to make. Again, thanks to u/mjd1119 for the idea.
submitted by sauce0907 to nfl [link] [comments]

2020 Lions Fan Guide to Bandwagoning

After last season/the Bears loss/the Packers loss, it’s become clear to all of us that the 2020 Lions are a completely unsalvageable pit of despair from which there is no escape.
Patricia should have been fired at the 50 yard line of Lambeau and then beheaded for his crimes against humanity.
Quin should be exiled from the land by a pack of ravenous hounds that chase him back east across Lake Huron.
Hopefully Stafford can catch a ride on a ship to the Undying Lands and get a fat contract from a QB-needy team before he retires. Killing Barry and Calvin AND Stafford is more than I can handle as a fan, let somebody be happy for the love of god.
That said, what to do for the rest of the 2020 season? Time to pick a team to bandwagon! It’s important to pick a good bandwagon team now if you want to have a chance at riding another team’s coattails all the way to the playoffs. Let’s go through the list (by last week’s power ranking) and discuss.
The Top 5
Here’s where you go for your best bet at sure-fire contenders. This section is for bandwagoners who want to see their team go to the Super Bowl in order to get some semblance of the shine of the Lombardi trophy on your face, even if you know in your heart you cheated to get there by becoming an imposter in the fanbase of a foreign team from foreign lands.
  1. Chiefs – Last year’s super bowl winners with the new hotness Patrick Mahomes at QB and lovable BBQ-eating Andy Reid at HC, plus Travis Kelce. Historic underdogs finally having their moment in the sun is a perfect fit for a Lions fan to root for. This is bandwagoning on easy mode, the clear pick in my opinion. Number one in the rankings, number one in my cold dead 2020 heart.
  2. Ravens – The only better pick than the Chiefs is the Ravens. Lamar Jackson playing QB is probably the most fun thing you can watch on television right now period. I bandwagoned the Ravens all through last season while dreaming that Stafford’s back healing up might make a difference in 2020 (oh how young and naïve I was) and it was a great time! They imploded a little bit in the playoffs but hey, this could be their year!
  3. Seahawks – This is a nice pick for some history, familiarity, and stability. The Seahawks are always in it as long as they have Russ and Pete Carroll, and last night we watched them go 2-0 against the Pats in a serious nail-biter finish. You know you’re at least going on a deep playoff run if you bandwagon the Seahawks.
  4. Saints – Watching Brees continue to cement himself as a top all-time QB, potentially in his final year, with an actual defense, Michael Thomas, and Kamara? It’s sure to be a fun ride! Plus, the Saints are another team that knows a lot about long droughts of success, hanging around the bottom of the league, kicked while they’re down, nobody ever believing in them. They’re soul mates in pain, and it’s fun to watch those teams succeed.
  5. Packers – No. Never.
The Middle of the Pack
So you’re not looking for a sure thing, you’re interested in a bumpier bandwagon ride. The middle of the pack of is for you! These teams will have ups and they’ll have downs, and if they make it to the Super Bowl, or even the deep playoffs, the victory will be all the sweeter.
  1. 49ers – After Sunday I believe every single player on the 49ers has a torn ACL or something like that, but hey, they made it to the SB last year and they could do it again! 49ers are historic and who doesn’t like to root for a classic franchise?
  2. Bills – A true sister-ship team of the Lions. Forever frustrated and disappointed fans now getting their chance to root for a QB who throws over 400. I like Josh Allen because to hear his bio it really sounds like he just found himself in the NFL by accident and is somehow pulling it off. Plus now he’s got Stefon Diggs, who is no longer our divisional problem. Classic underdog pick, go Bills.
  3. Steelers – Roethlisberger is back, JuJu is great, and the Steelers are always in it. If you want that authentic “we’re more blue collar than you” experience, Steelers are a solid pick. Bonus: revisit the days of Ebron and watch him brick-hand pass after pass, and feel some semblance of relief that out of all the problems the Lions have this year, he’s not one of them.
  4. Titans – A great pick for the Lions fan who wants a long-shot with good odds. If Tannehill keeps his breakout alive and Derrick Henry keeps trucking people, they’re a tough team to stop. Plus now they have Clowney (how could Patricia not go after Clowney Jesus Christ are you kidding me he had a chance to grab an elite DE in free agency and shore up in pathetic pass rushers and we didn’t even hear about him trying to land him how fucking pathetic can you believe this guy… wait no don’t think about that!) Titans are a sleeper for the SB and I think they’ll continue to surprise everybody this year.
  5. Patriots – No Brady, no problem. Patriots still look great as always, plus Cam Newton is way more fun to root for than Brady ever was. Watch Belichik potentially use his evil powers for good and get Cam a ring. Patriots can feel dirty to root for but it’s also like eating a whole chocolate cake after you’ve been on a years-long diet. Sometimes it feels good just to give in.
  6. Rams – This is the team you want to root for if you’re a big NFL conspiracy theorist and think hidden capitalists are pulling the strings behind the scenes to rig games. “The NFL wants LA to succeed because it’s a huge and largely untapped market of a city. For that to work, either the Rams or the Chargers have to go deep every year until LA is turning out their pockets for that sweet football merch.” Maybe it’s true, maybe not, maybe who cares! Also a great team to watch if you want to see Aaron Donald wreck people every single play. Remember, Donald could have been ours but instead we drafted Ebron. I’m just kidding, I know you didn’t forget. How could you?
  7. Cardinals – Kyler “Calamari” Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald pulling this team out of the depths and into something respectable would be a fun ride to watch. Another franchise with historic pain, a dark horse long-shot, it speaks to my Detroit-hardened heart.
  8. Cowboys – Rooting Cowboys is like going after the dumb hot girl. She’s not going to amount to much but she sure does get a lot of attention. If you want to watch a lot of primetime games and hear about your bandwagon team in sports media constantly, may as well pick the Boys. Win, lose or draw, for some reason we all have to talk about them all the time. Also, it’s fun to root for Kellen Moore, and it’s fun to watch Zeke be a wrecking ball. Successful run game teams actually exist!
  9. Vikings – Ew. I guess. Kirk Cousins can play football and Dalvin Cook is a running back. Riley Reiff used to live here. Kyle Rudolph has a fun name if you’re a big Christmas person. I don’t know. This seems like a pointless bandwagon unless you really like the color purple.
  10. Buccaneers – Never count Brady out. Love him or hate him (hate him) Brady is historic and worth watching. If you want to watch Belichick-less Brady in his final year(s), reunited with Gronkowski, tearing up the ground with Fournette, this is a solid band wagon pick.
  11. Texans – Another great fit for the Lions: watch an incredibly talented QB get hamstrung by his incompetent coaching staff and wasted in his scheme, all while his good-on-paper defense continues to let him down on the field. JJ Watt is still fun to watch, and moreso if you close your eyes and pretend is 2013 and we all still love him.
The Bottom Half
Bandwagoning to win is for pussies, you’re here to bandwagon a team that is either an extra-super long-shot, or another team with no chance to pair with your Lions heartbreak. You sick son of a bitch, I respect it, but I don’t think it’s good for you.
  1. Eagles – Good pick for It’s Always Sunny fans who want to root for Jim Schwartz.
  2. Raiders – Cool uniforms, cool fans, another chance at an NFL conspiracy team due to the move to Vegas
  3. Falcons – If you can’t watch Stafford succeed, you may as well watch his buddy Matt Ryan also not succeed.
  4. Bears – Chicago is cool and nearby, and the Bears haven’t been successful in a long time, so it doesn’t feel completely gross. Any win they can get with Trubisky at the helm they damn sure deserve.
  5. Chargers – Actually looked legit good against the Chiefs with their new QB Justin Herbert, plus you got Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram on defense. This is probably as far down the list as you can go and find an actual contender. This is your longest long shot for the true masochist who still wants hope involved.
  6. Broncos – Good pick for big South Park fans. Also I guess if you’re still high on Von Miller.
  7. Colts – Their colors are similar to ours and Indiana is pretty close. This strikes me as a particularly hopeless bandwagon pick, but they do have a running back, which could be fun to watch.
  8. Jaguars – Minshew Mania makes this a solid pick. Plus it’s another cat team.
  9. Washington – Chase Young, oh what could have been.
  10. Lions – "Bandwagon? Bandwagon?! We don't need no stinking bandwagon!" Ride or die motherfucker, it's Lions Only for your fandom. You're a captain going down with the ship, you're gonna sit here and watch Patricia waste another year of Stafford's career, fail at the run game, fail to adjust, fail on defense, fail at everything all season long. Because when we go 0-16 again, you'll be able to look back and say you were there. You'll bear witness to our heroic Tank for Trevor Lawrence, and the pride that comes before the fall of the house of Quintricia. And when we see flashes of greatness from Stafford, 100 yard rushers from AD, interceptions from Okudah, and long-yard FGs from Prater, you'll be there to cheer on the Lions as always. Win or lose, rain or shine, Detroit vs. Everybody.
  11. Bengals – Root for Joe Burrow. Plus it’s another cat team.
  12. Panthers – Blue cat team.
  13. Dolphins – Tank for Tua actually happened and honestly good for them. Plus a little dose of Fitzmagic in your life.
  14. Giants – Daniel Jones is an Eli clone and honestly that kind of science should be studied. Might be worth checking out.
  15. Browns – Great pick if you’re done with the Lions but don’t want to improve through bandwagoning in any way shape or form. A true historic and present lateral move, a decision forged in Midwest hopelessness and gallons of beer. Godspeed to anyone choosing to bandwagon the Browns this season.
  16. Jets – The "just let the pain flow through me" option.
Comments analysis after 24 hours
The names I'm seeing the most after 24 hours and 48 comments are Seattle, Buffalo, Arizona, and Chargers. So 3 outta 4 you guys are goddamn gluttons for punishment! Lions fans through and through, you won't even bandwagon a sure thing, it's gotta be a long-shot underdog story of a long-suffering franchise that MIGHT have some success this year. Goddamn, never change guys.
submitted by livingthedream666 to detroitlions [link] [comments]

Week3 GPP Analysis from a Milly Maker winner

Hey everyone,
DFSForecast here! We've been slacking on content due to all the work we've been doing on the optimizer, but we're going to try to put a couple articles out per week analyzing how people win GPPs. Still a week or so away from making a video showing my process on how I build lineups, but I hope this will help in the mean time.

Winning Lineup Review

• Congrats to goners for the big win!
• Goners game stacked with the largest OU of the week. Balanced lineup with all players under $7k. All but one lineup that finished in the top 10 this week had a game-stack.
• Goners spent $11k on team flex, $17.8k on team stack, and $24.6k on the entire game Of lineups that finish in the top 5, 75% of the time total team stack salary used is less than $17.8k, and 75% of the time total team flex salary is less than $12.5k.
• Surprisingly, this was the only lineup that finished in the top 10 that had a TE in the flex position. This is generally a losing strategy, but it worked out well for Goners.

Overall Slate Review

(Note: Percentages for top 10 aren't even because 5 people tied for 10th, so there are 14 lineups to analyze).
Stack Percentages
  • It's shocking to me how many people still don't stack. Nearly 25% of losing lineups didn't stack their QB with any flex players, while every single lineup in the top 50 had at least 1 flex stacked with their QB. Dak had 3 rushing TDs, and the winning LU still had 2 WRs stacked with him.
  • In particular, the 2flex + 1opp stack crushed this week, namely due to the 79 total points scored in the Falcons Cowboys game.
Total Salary
  • The top 5 uses most of the $50k more often than the other cohorts. I set my minimum salary at $49.6k.
Flex Position
  • Like I said before, the winning LU was the only one with a TE in the flex position. In general, that's a losing strategy.
  • Last week was weird in that a lot of the chalk RBs were higher priced, so it was harder to fit a 3rd one into LUs. This week with cheaper chalk plays like Miles Sanders and Kenyan Drake, I think the winning LU will have 3 RBs. I generally try to have at least 60% of my lineups with 3 RBs.
2+ Max Flex No Stack
  • I was very surprised to see over 40% of losing and cashing lineups have more than 1 flex player that isn't on the same team as their QB. I figured it was generally a losing strategy to placing top 10, but I didn't think nearly half of all lineups did it.
  • The only top 10 lineup that had 2flex no stack was a part of a game stack.
  • Over 30% of losing lineups had 2 flex no stack not in the same game as the QB.

Week 3 Takeaways

  • If you don't stack, prepare to lose money. There's a chance I throw some naked Kyler lineups in the Milly Maker, but I won't feel good about it.
  • This will be another good week for 2+ flex stacks and game stacks, with 3 games with OUs over 50. The Vikings-Titans game has a surprisingly high OU and will have lower ownership than Seahawks vs Cowboys and Cardinals vs Lions
  • Don't play less than $49.6k total salary unless you really have a good feeling about it.
  • Put an RB in the flex spot in the majority of your lineups.
  • Unless you're stacking a team/game with the QB, only have more than 1 flex player from a given team if their Vegas odds are high. Eagles might be a good choice depending on how you like Sanders and Ertz, but I wouldn't force it.
submitted by DFSForecast to dfsports [link] [comments]

Week 17 NFL DFS Picks: Best value players, sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy football lineups

The final week of the 2020 NFL season is upon us, and the majority of season-long fantasy leagues have already crowned their champions. But DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo allow you to extend the fantasy fun, and assemble brand-new lineups with healthy players from teams still actively competing for playoff positioning. Before every week of this season, I have provided a list of my favorite DFS sleepers and under-the-radar value plays. I do so with the help of RotoQL, which featuresup-to-date rankings of every NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. If you read this column last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 16 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Andy Dalton ($5,500): 30.6 fantasy pointsQB Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700): 24.6QB Jalen Hurts ($7,000): 20.6RB David Johnson ($6,100): 31.9RB J.K. Dobbins ($6,200): 13.7WR Mike Evans ($6,100): 43.1WR Brandin Cooks ($6,200): 30.1WR Tee Higgins ($4,700): 21.9TE Austin Hooper ($3,500): 14.1TE Mark Andrews ($5,700): 13.6TE Logan Thomas ($4,900): 13.3Tampa Bay D/ST ($3,800): 12San Fran D/ST ($2,700): 11Washington D/ST ($3,000): 9These players (and defenses) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Deshaun Watson, Travis Kelce, and Jonathan Taylor in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 17 DFS: Best stacks| Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 17 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 17 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 17 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings| FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 17: QB sleepers, valuesKirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,700)Cousins has enjoyed a fantastic home stretch of the regular season, averaging 23.6 fantasy points since Week 11. Now he faces a Lions defense surrendering the third-most fantasy points in the league. In Detroit’s past five games, QBs have averaged 299.2 passing yardswhile throwing a combined total of 15 touchdowns. RotoQL has Cousins projected to score 21 fantasy points, easily the highest-projected score for any signal-caller under $7,000 on DraftKings.Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $6,000 | FD: $7,300)I’m shocked at how many times I have recommended Rivers in this column this seasonconsidering he almost perennially makes my personal ‘Do Not Draft’ list, but the veteran QB’s listed prices have been values more often than not this seasonand he almost always delivers against poor defenses. Enter the Jaguars, who yield the second-most fantasy points to QBs and tank better than the Jets. RotoQL projects Rivers at 18.4with a ceiling of 28.7 points.Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Aww, we’re getting nostalgic in the last week of the regular season! Carr has also made this list a handful of times this yearand for good reason. Like Rivers, the Raiders QB is unspectacular but solid. He doesn’t make too many mistakes, which limits his fantasy floor, and he has play-making receivers who boost his ceiling. Denver ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so he’s a great investment at $5,700.New Year’s Bonus: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $7,400)You had me at Carolina. The Panthers have served as many QBs’ ‘get-right games’ this season, which should be no different this week for the future Hall-of-Famer. Brees averages 24.4 fantasy points in his past three games against the Panthers. If he can’t hit Black Jack against them this week, he might not be physically ready for the playoffs.WEEK 17 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelWeek 17 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesD'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,500)The rookie has faced quite a few tough run defenses in the second half of the season, butSwift has still averaged17.4 fantasy points over his past five games. He turned 16 touches into 97 yards the first time these teams met in Week 9, and he has exceeded that touch count in three of the past four weeks since. With 4.6 average yards per carry and nine total touchdowns, it will be difficult to stay away from Swift at $6,300 against the Vikings, who rank 27th against RBs in fantasy land.Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,800)The veteran Gordon kicked the turbo boosters on for the home stretch of 2020, accumulating 500 yards on the ground in 93 carries since Week 10 (5.4 yards per carry). Look for him to find paydirt for the 10th time this season, and with 107 yards, he can reach the 1,000-yard mark for just the second time in his career. The Raiders have ceded the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this seasonand 6.1 yards per carry to bell-cow backs since these teams last met in mid-November. We’re down with MG3 in Week 17.Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,100)While the Ravens have underwhelmed this season, the ‘Gus Bus’ has been rolling like it’s got Sandra Bullock at the wheel. Since Week 13, Edwards has carried the ball 38 times for 277 yards (7.3 yards per carry), and he’s found the end zone twice. He also has 73 receiving yards over Baltimore’s past two games. David Johnson just rushed for 128 yards and a score against Cincinnati, one week after Benny Snell carved the Bengals up for 107 total yards and a score. Ride the Bus to DFS glory at a discount deal this week.Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)Another deal at under $5,000, Hines has very quietly put up 60 fantasy points since Week 12. He serves as one of Rivers’ security blankets, equally capable of doing damage on the ground and through the air. The Jaguars are the gift that keeps on giving, as they rank 30th in fantasy against RBs. RotoQL lists Hines’ ceiling at 28.5 PPR points, a mark he hit in Week 10 against the Titans.New Year’s Bonus: Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $5,500)He’s no Alvin Kamara, but that’s why Murray’s priced $3,600 lower than his teammate. The change-of-pace back has scored 23.5 total fantasy points over the past two games, and now he draws a Panthers defense that has been dreadful against the run all year. RotoQL gives him a 10.3-point projection with a ceiling of 39.7.WEEK 17 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 17: WR sleepers, valuesT.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,300)Maybe Hilton traded for himself on his own fantasy team late in the seasonbecause he’s averaged 18.4 PPR points since Week 12. Now he gets to inflict some pain on a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. I know, I’m hammering the Jaguars this week, butHilton will hammer them, too, whether you insert him into your lineups or not.Keke Coutee, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $5,600 | FD: $5,700)At least somebody benefited from the Will Fuller suspension. Coutee has scored 61.2 fantasy points since Week 13 (15.3 per game), clearly earning the trust of Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Coutee has seen the field for 73 percent of Houston’s offensive snaps since the Fuller suspension, and he’s caught 21-of-24 targets in that span. Tennessee has allowed the third-most points to wideouts this season. RotoQL projects the third-year speedster at 13 PPR pointswith a 25-point ceiling.Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $5,100 | FD: $5,700)Another wideout who has benefited from the absence of a teammate, Gage has stepped up since Julio Jones suffered a hamstring injury in Week 13. Since then, Gage has 18 grabs for 224 yards and two scores. He will look to close out the season well against the Bucs, who have been surprisingly generous to receivers in fantasy this year (23rd). The oveunder for this game is set at 50 points, and Tampa Bay has scored 78 points total in the past two weeks. Expect Falcons QB Matt Ryan to throw early and often, with Gage once again profiting from the volume.Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $5,100 | FD: $6,100)Jones has been a boom-or-bust play this season, with nearly 60 combined PPR points in Weeks 13 and 15 but just 13.7 combined in Weeks 14 and 16. We at RotoQL expect him to boom again in Week 17, not just because he’s an odd-number type of guy but also because the Lions face a vulnerable Vikings secondary ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to receivers. We have Jones projected at 14.2 fantasy points, with a much higher ceiling if QB Matthew Stafford (ankle) can suit up.New Year’s Bonus: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (DK: $5,000 | FD: $6,200)I’ve forgiven Gallup for helping my opponent eliminate me from my fantasy league’s playoffs a few weeks back (I started him in my FLEX spot over Miles Sanders the week Sanders went off against the Saints…gulp). Gallup seems to have forgiven himself, as well, as he scored 11.6 points last week against San Francisco and a whopping 33.1 points last week against the Eagles. Expect double-digits in a huge NFC East battle with the G-Men this weekend.WEEK 17 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerWeek 17 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,200)Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has recently looked a lot more like he did during his 2019 MVP campaign than he did earlier in the season. Part of the reason is because he has reestablished his healthy connection with Andrews. The 6-5, 256-pound tight end has 77.7 points over the course of Baltimore’s past five games (15.5 per game), and now he travels to Cincinnati to face a Bengals D ranked 28th in fantasy against his position.Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $3,900 | FD: $5,600)Smith reached 15 or more PPR points for the third time in five weeks when he scored 23.3 against a good Saints defense in New Orleans on Christmas. RotoQL sees that 23-point mark as his ceiling against the floundering Lions, who rank 24th against tight ends in fantasy. As a red-zone favorite of the aforementioned Cousins, Smith may very well find paydirt for the third time in two weeks.New Year’s Bonus: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $4,400 | FD: $5,700)It’s good to let go of grudges and grievances around the New Year, so I’m willing to forgive and forget about the fact that Fant did next-to-nothing for me in the four fantasy leagues I drafted him this year. Fant has scored 33.3 combined PPR points in Denver’s past two games, and he gets to finish the season off strong against a miserable Raiders defense.BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here! Week 17 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersSeattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $3,900)The Seahawks D, which was historically bad in the first half of the season, has been surprisingly good in the second half. The biggest difference-maker has been Carlos Dunlap, who has provided Seattle with an actual pass-rush since coming over via trade. The Seahawks have scored at least nine fantasy points in every game since Week 11, and the 49ers often make mistakes with Nick Mullens under center.I wish all of our readers a happy and healthy New Year, and hope you all start 2021 with some big-time DFS winnings!
submitted by hokkuvn to StreamableSports [link] [comments]

Offseason Review Series: Los Angeles Rams

2019 Summary

Division: NFC West
Record: 9-7 (3rd in Division, 7th in Conference)
After a wildly successful 2019 season, the Los Angeles Rams had high hopes for 2020. It was truly Super Bowl or bust for the team, and unfortunately as high as the expectations were the end result was disappointment almost as high. Despite the shortcomings (and media doubt), the team is still in great shape to have another great year and playoff hopes are completely within shooting distance. Here's a brief summary of some of the positives and negatives on the 2019 season.
Positives
Negatives

2020 Coaching Staff/Changes

Position Name (* indicates new coach) Notes
Sean McVay Head Coach Total babe
Joe Berry Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers Coach
Thad Bogardus Assistant Defensive Line Coach/Defensive Quality Control Dope name
John Bonamego Special Teams Coordinator* Previously with the Detroit Lions
Thomas Brown Running Backs Coach* Previously with the South Carolina Gamecocks
Liam Coen Assistant Quarterbacks Coach Previously WRs coach
John Cooley Defensive Quality Control* Previously Akron CBs Coach
Andy Dickerson Assistant Offensive Line Coach
Ejiro Evero Safeties Coach Dope name
Eric Henderson Defensive Line Coach
Aaron Kromer Run Game CoordinatoOffensive Line Coach
Zak Kromer Offensive Quality Control lol nepotism
Bill Nayes Assistant to the Head Coach insert The Office joke here
Kevin O'Connell Offensive Coordinator* Previously with the Washington REDACTED
Wes Phillips Tight Ends Coach
Aubrey Pleasant Cornerbacks Coach
Zac Robinson Assistant Wide Receivers Coach Was Assistant QB coach in 2019
Chris Shula Outside Linebackers Coach
Brandon Staley Defensive Coordinator* Previously with the Denver Broncos as OLB Coach
Shane Waldron Pass Game Coordinator
Eric Yarbor Wide Receivers Coach
Key Changes

Free Agent Signings and Departures

Key Signings
Player Position Former Team Contract Details
Michael Brockers Defensive Tackle LA Rams 3 y31.5 million
Andrew Whitworth Offensive Tackle LA Rams 3 y30 million
Austin Blythe Offensive Guard/C LA Rams 1 y3.9 million
A'shawn Robinson Defensive Tackle Detroit Lions 2 y17 million
Leonard Floyd OLB/Defensive End Chicago Bears 1 y10 million
Key Departures
Player Position New Team Contract Details
Greg Zuerline Kicker Dallas Cowboys 3 y7.5 million
Todd Gurley Running Back Atlanta Falcons 1 y5.5 million
Dante Fowler Jr OLB/Defensive End Atlanta Falcons 3 y30 million
Cory Littleton Linebacker Las Vegas Raiders 3 y36 million
Marquis Christian Safety New York Jets 1 y2 million
Jojo Natson PKR Cleveland Browns 1 y1 million
Clay Matthews OLB/Defensive End Free Agent n/a
Eric Weddle Safety Free Agent n/a
Nickell Robey-Coleman Cornerback Philadelphia Eagles 1 y1.35 million
Lets start our discussion with the departures, because we lost a lot of key starters. Dante Fowler, Cory Littleton, Clay Mathew, and Eric Weddle were four starters on our defense, with NRC being our primary slot DB. Weddle was more of a leader than an anchor on defense, and did a remarkable job mentoring his replacement in rookie Taylor Rapp. Clay Mathews had a nice season but at his age is certainly replaceable. What isn't going to be replaceable is Cory Littleton, who might be one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL. His coverage ability is going to be sorely missed and leaves the linebacker room, which was already weak, almost defunct.
The strategy regarding our free agent signings is a little mysterious. In early free agency we signed Floyd and Robinson, which filled two holes left by Fowler and Brockers, who had originally signed with the Baltimore Ravens. A few weeks afterwards Brockers offer was rescinded by the Ravens, and he resigned at a lofty amount. This effectively leaves the team with a log jam at defensive tackle, with two DTs that do virtually the same thing to be paired with Aaron Donald. I'll explain later in this post how I think our defense might look, but it's certainly a puzzling signing.
Resigning Whitworth, in what should be his final contract, is a nice bonus even if it was for another larger than anticipated deal. It gives our numerous young OL talent a wonderful vet to learn from, and despite media reports our offensive line room actually isn't bad. It's just incredibly young, and we have many sophomores who look to make jumps this year.

2020 Draft Class/Undrafted Free Agents

Round Pick Player Position College Team
2 52 Cam Akers Running Back Florida State
2 57 Van Jefferson Wide Receiver Florida
3 84 Terrell Lewis OLB/DE Alabama
3 104 Terrell Burgess Safety Utah
4 136 Brycen Hopkins Tight End Purdue
6 199 Jordan Fuller Safety Ohio State
7 234 Clay Johnston Linebacker Baylor
7 248 Sam Sloman Kicker Miami (OH)
7 250 Tremayne Anchrum Offensive Line Clemson
Cam Akers and Van Jefferson are the only players on offensive who should make an immediate impact. Akers could battle for the starting position with Gurley out, and Jefferson could battle Josh Reynolds for WR3. The intriguing pick is Terrell Lewis, who could have been a 1st rounder if healthy. He fills a major need at EDGE for the team, and if he works out will be a massive value pick.
Brycen Hopkins will battle with Johnny Mundt for the final TE spot, which may be a tall order given Mundt's proficiency on special teams. But he's a good prospect to replace Gerald Everett, who will demand a larger contract next year. Tremayne Anchrum is probably a longshot to make the team, especially with no preseason games considering we have a logjam of OL prospects with Bobby Evans, David Edwards, Joe Notebloom, among others.
For more information on the UDFA list, check out this link. The interesting choices are Easop Winston, Josh Love, and Bryce Perkins. Easop I think may have a decent shot at making the roster, while Josh Love and Bryce Perkins may be able to battle it out for the backup position. The Rams will look to shed future salary cap space where ever possible, and both players have decent ceilings and could be a cheap backup alternative for Goff, but both will have to usurp AAF legend John Wolford who is the leader in the clubhouse.

Projected Depth Chart/Scheme Changes

Offense (* indicates rookie)
Position 1st 2nd 3rd
QB Jared Goff John Wolford
RB Malcom Brown Cam Akers* Darrell Henderson
WR Cooper Kupp Van Jefferson*
WR Robert Woods Nsimba Webster
WR Josh Reynolds Easop Winston* Trishton Jackson*
TE Tyler Higbee Gerald Everett Brycen Hopkins*
LT Andrew Whitworth Bobby Evans Tremayne Anchrum
LG Joe Notebloom David Edwards
C Austin Blythe Brian Allen
RG Austin Corbett Coleman Shelton
RT Rob Havenstein Jamil Demby
The first thing that I envision changing for this Rams offensive is to break out of our traditional 11 personnel into more 11 or 22 based packages. Sean McVay has made no secret about our change to a running back by committee team, which makes sense given the different types of backs we have on the roster. Malcom Brown probably gets the start due to his veteran presence, and because he's a traditional runner of the football. But Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are both Alvin Kamara-like backs and can open things up for McVay to get more creative.
An interesting camp battle will be to see who makes it at wide receiver. Kupp, Woods, Reynolds, Jefferson, and Webster are all locks to make the team, but we will probably carry 6-7 on the roster. I'm partial to Easop Winston and Trishton Jackson to fill those voids but other guys like JJ Koski could also impress and camp and make an impact. As the season goes on, the Rams are going to hope that at least one of these rookies can manage to impress enough to replace Josh Reynolds, as both him and Cooper Kupp are in contract years and we probably won't be able to afford to resign both.
On the offensive line front, I'm really excited to see the development that Bobby Evans, Joe Notebloom, and David Edwards show. Make no mistake, if our team is to have flexibility moving forward it is absolutely vital that one, if not all three, of these guys pan out. Luckily, due to injury Bobby Evans and David Edwards were given starting jobs and performed really well all things considered. Evans in particular was given the task to block Jadeveon Clowney and Khalil Mack and really held those guys to minimal impact.
As a quick update, the only member of the team to opt out of the 2020 season is OL Chandler Brewer, who was probably a good bet to make the team as a backup OL. In his place I slot Jamil Demby who's been a prospect on the team for what seems like a decade. In any other year, I'd slot a rookie to take over that slot but given the lack of a structured offseason I think the team stays with someone familiar for another year.
Defense (* indicates rookie)
Position 1st 2nd 3rd
DE Leonard Floyd Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
DT Aaron Donald Sebastian Joseph-Day Greg Gaines
DT Michael Brockers A'shawn Robinson
DE Samson Ebukam Justin Lawler
LB Micah Kiser Kenny Young Travin Howard
LB Terrell Lewis Clay Johnston*
CB Jalen Ramsey Darious Williams
CB Troy Hill Donte Deayon
CB David Long Jr Adonis Alexander
S John Johnson III Jordan Fuller*
S Taylor Rapp Terrell Burgess*
Our biggest change in identity is going to come from the defensive side of the ball. Losing Wade Phillips is a huge blow to the leadership of the team, but newcomer Brandon Staley may be able to provide a McVay-like spark in ingenuity that provides results. The way that the Rams targeted safeties in the draft, and avoided a massive need in linebacker, makes me believe that we are transitioning to a DB let system similar our neighbors in the LA Chargers. If you do film study on the Chargers, you can see them run a package that consists of 7 DBs occasionally, which works well when you have physical safeties like Derwin James. Luckily for us, we have two incredibly physical guys in Johnson and Rapp, and with the team clearly focusing on DBs I think its in the cards for us to roll this package out in 2020.
One area that might be a struggle for us is going to be our defensive line, and generating pressure via the pass rush. Luckily again, we have the greatest defensive player in the NFL and the greatest defensive tackle of all time on our team. Another fortunate circumstance is that we no longer will be marred by Wade Phillips conservative play calling, and in fact may be able to use DC Brandon Staley's expertise as an OLB coach to get improvement out of guys like Okoronkwo and Ebukam, In free agency we signed A'Shawn Robinson, who paired with Michael Brockers can be a force against the run, but neither player is a threat to rush the passer. Leonard Floyd, another free agent signing, is another guy who is strong against the run but struggles in pass rush. This area of defense will be key to the success of the team, and these guys are gonna have to find ways outside of relying on Aaron Donald to generate pressure.
Special Teams (* indicates rookie)
Position 1st
K Sam Sloman*
P Johnny Hekker
LS Jake McQuaide
PR Trishton Jackson*
PR Nsimba Webster*
Losing Greg Zuerline is going to hurt, and he will always have a place in Rams history for making clutch kicks in the 2018 NFC Championship game. But he grew inconsistent especially inside the 40 yard line, and struggled with injuries since 2017. We drafted Sam Sloman in 2020 but also have two decent UDFA that will compete for the starting job..

Projected Game Results

Week 1: Win (1-0)
Dallas Cowboys @ Rams - NBC Sunday Night Football
Opening the season at the new SoFi stadium, with potentially no fans is going to be an odd experience. The last time the Rams beat dem boyz was in the 2018 Divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams will struggle early to find continuity, and I'd expect a relatively low scoring, run heavy game. In the end I think the Rams will get the season off to a good start with a win. Rams 24 Cowboys 17
Week 2: Win (2-0)
Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles - FOX 10am PST
We should finally get to see Goff vs Wentz healthy in full game for the first time. The Eagles have beat the Rams both times they've played Sean McVay, and I think they get things back on track in 2020. I believe our strength at the DL and DBs will be able to effectively manage the weaknesses of the Eagles WRs and aging OL, though the key will probably be Zach Ertz. Rams 30 Eagles 28
Week 3: Loss (2-1)
Rams @ Buffalo Bills - FOX 10am PST
Our first stumble will come against an underrated team in the Bills. I think having two close games in a row to open the season will leave the team waiting for a crash, and how else to crash than by facing what might be the best defense in the NFL. I expect Tre White and the rest of the secondary to handle Goff and company in a convincing loss. Bills 23 Rams 10
Week 4: Win (3-1)
New York Giants @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST
Home sweet home, the Rams get back on track with a convincing win over a struggling Giants team. I'll predict an offensive explosion from Goff, somewhere around 400 yds and 4 TDs in a blow out win. Sorry Giants fans, nothing personal. I'm expecting an early struggle for this Giants team as it adjusts to new coach, young QB, with little prep time.Rams 42 Giants 16
Week 5: Win (4-1)
Rams @ Washington [REDACTED] - FOX 10amPST
I think this gsme is much closer than most might expect. The [REDACTED] are my surprise pick of the year, I have them winning the NFC East. An already tenacious defense led by Ron Rivera and gaining a bona-fide star in Chase Young is going to be fun to watch. I think the key to this game will be quick passes to avoid that ferocious defensive line as much as possible. Rams 24 [REDACTED] 21
Week 6: Loss (4-2)
Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers - NBC Sunday Night Football
As much as I want to win this game, I think Shanny and those fucks take this one from us. Divisional games tend to be unpredictable and chaotic, and while I do think we split the series with them, being on the road for this one isn't going to favor us. Its going to be interesting to see how DC Brandon Staley chooses to defend Kittle. I dont think shadowing him with Ramsey is the best play, perhaps it's a combination of jamming him at the LOS and covering him in zone. Either way, its a tall order for whoever gets that assignment. 49ers 31 Rams 25
Week 7: Win (5-2)
Chicago Bears @ Rams - ESPN Monday Night Football
As it stands, McVay will be 1-1 on the year in prime time games. His record as a coach is , which leads me to believe he'll have an edge in winning this one. Of course the Ram fucker Foles might be in at QB, which could spell disaster for our team. I think that our offensive prowess will shine during this long week, and we win in convincing fashion. Rams 36 Bears 20
Week 8: Win (6-2)
Rams @ Miami Dolphins - FOX 10am PST
We continue this offensive success against a team that will probably be pretty good defensively. HC Tom Flores is a Bill Belichek disciple who learned something important from his former mentor; acquire as many great DBs as you can. The improved secondary will make things tough for Goff and gang, but ultimately working with a rookie QB is going to be hard against a defense with all pros scattered around it. Rams 17 Dolphins 0 ' Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Win (7-2)
Seattle Seahawks @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST
And entering the second half of the season we have our first three game winning streak. Coming off a bye week will give McBae ample time to prepare for a Seahawks team thay frankly will have a struggling offensive line and holes on its defense. Even with Jamal Adams, I expect this team to take a step back in 2020. Rams 31 Seahawks 17
Week 11: Loss (7-3)
Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ESPN Monday Night Football
Facing the best offensive weapons in the league is going to be a tough order for any team this season. Now that they have a QB that will make effective, eccifient decisions this Bucs team should take off. I dont think its particularly close, this is a complete team on both sides of the ball. Bucs 28 Rams 10
Week 12: Win (8-3)
San Fransisco 49ers @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST
The winning continues as the team really clicks into high gear. A brutal NFC West game will likely be a repeat of Week 6, but with a few more bounces going our way. Being at home will be a helpful factor. Rams 26 49ers 24
Week 13: Win (9-3)
Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - FOX 1:05PST
If there is any team in the league that McVay can be relied on to spank, its the Cardinals. McVay has yet to be beat by the team in his tenure with the Rams and I expect that to continue at least through this week. Despite a huge game from future MVP Kyler Murray, the Rams prevail, improving to 9-3
Week 14: Loss (9-4)
New England Patriots @ Rams - FOX/NFLN/Amazon Thursday Night Football
A short week against Belichek spells doom for almost every team, and McVay will continue his struggles against the GOAT. The Pats defense was able to throw Goff off his game on the Super Bowl a few years ago, I expect we see more of this on Thursday.
Week 15: Loss (9-5)
New York Jets @ Rams - TBD
Every team had one puzzling loss, and this matchup with the Jets is ours for the year. I dont expect the Jets to have a grest year but I do think Sam Darnold is universally underappreciated and will have a great game against us.
Week 16: Loss (9-6)
Rams @ Seattle Seahawks - CBS 1:05PST
And we are really ending the year on a slump. Losing to the Seahawks this late in the year isn't great for our playoff hopes, but its always a tall order to go into Seattle and leave with a W. This game may he one of the most important games going into the playoffs and I wont be surprised to see it get flexed.
Week 17: Win (10-6)
Arizona Cardinals @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST
Luckily for us we end the season against our little cousins, and use this opportunity to get our chakras realigned. This game will move us into the 6th seed and bounce Arizona into the 7th seed, becoming the first division in history to have every team make the playoffs.

Conclusion

I think people have forgotten that the Rams were a mkssed field goal away from making the playoffs last year, and thats with playing very sloppy through most games. The only thing holding this team back is the fact that they play in the toughest division in football. I think that Goff has a bounce back year and ends up a top 10 QB for the season. This season will be critical for McVay to really show the new coaches and players that he's capable of not only calling proficient offense but leading an entire team of players. It will be an interesting season, so make sure to wear your damn mask so it actually happens.
Thank you for reading, and bless all the knees and keep them healthy!!
Thanks for reading!! Bless all the knees and keep them healthy.
Link to hub
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u/letmeassumeurgender's 1rd with trades and a 1st pick twist

I have one big twist in my mock. Just kind of a for fun, quarantine fueled, project a blend of weird twists but mostly what I would do. Also, my first mock so I'd love to hear where I'm way off.
Edit: missed the bills trading the vikings their 1st. Need a vikes fan to tell me who they would want there. Edit 2: adjusted CIN-CAR trade to remove cin 2nd Also important note this mocks motivation is WHAT IF the Bengals don’t see Burrow as their FQB.
(CAR sends C. McCafferey + Pick 7 + 2021 1st to CIN for Pick 1)
  1. Carolina Panthers – Joe Burreaux QB LSU
Panthers jump up to grab their OC’s man as they look to continue what was fairytale level of performance at LSU. In the process all they have to do is give up a RB (albeit a MVP caliber one) before his next contract. A tough pill to swallow for a team losing its two faces (Cam) this offseason, but imo the right move. They lose a first next year but gain the first pick of the second round this year. The new regime starts out bold.
The Bengals fans leave equally disappointed, but add an exciting piece that the fanbase needs and honestly deserves. Of course the real motivation here is not acquiring Mixon a running mate. The Bengals had entirely too long to overthink Burrow and fear the single year of success. Questioning everything from talent around him to arm strength and even age, they opt for the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes the guy they’ve really been drooling over since last year. They pick up a mid-range 1st next year as tank insurance.
  1. Washington Redskin Potatoes – Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
Yeah, Chase Young is cool, but… take it from the OSU alum who ordered a Pumpkin Spice Latte before turning around and seeing the man in the campus Starbucks line behind you was Chase Young. Yeah they called my name out and screamed Venti Pumpkin Spice Latte for Cole, to which I put my head down in shame shuffled pass the behemoth of a man to grab my drink and go. Oh, I’m also a Browns fan. I remember when we only won one game and earned the right to Myles “The Assailant” Garrett. We grabbed a DE who is pretty freaking awesome (No, you can’t have him) and proceeded to win 0 games. Then Baker and all of sudden people spoke the dreaded p word. The QB position matters infinitely more. I remember screaming at Buffalo Wild Wing’s DON’T TAKE WATSON TAKE GARRETT to the screen. Yeah, they should’ve taken Watson.
Anyways, Tua. He can play, he’s shown that. Maybe they can shake a 2nd out of the Pats for Haskins?
  1. Detroit Lions – Chase Young DE tOSU
Matt Patricia really struggles to make this pick. Chase Young has everything… almost. He just lacks that pedigree that the Lions are looking for. Sure OSU is an okay school and has produced a few okay DE’s, but Chase Young has never played for the Patriots, regardless they suck it up and take him. He truly is the best player available and fits the need well. Since the draft will be silent because of Covid-19 you won’t hear any Lions fans cheering when the redskins draft Tua, but there will be some rocking living rooms in Detroit as the TTUN fans take Chase Young to the dark side.
(LAC send Pick 6 + Pick 37 to NYG for Pick 4)
  1. Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert QB Oregon
Apparently the Chargers like Herbert. The current plan in my estimation is Tyrod for 2.5 weeks and then Herbert leads them to a TNF second half comeback vs. the Jets. Sounds oddly familiar for some reason. Not much explaining to do here. They have to jump Miami to ensure they get their guy. The Chargers need a QB much more than they need Isiah Simmons despite how freaking awesome that D would be. ;)
Giants take the slight overpay and move back what amounts to one pick since they know exactly who the Chargers are taking.
(ARI sends Pick 8 + 2021 2nd to MIA for Pick 5)
  1. Arizona Cardinals – Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
Arizona knows they need to give Kyler a bit more time to throw to that one guy they tricked BoB into trading away. They jump over the Giants to get the best lineman in this draft. Not only is Wills the best lineman in this class, he is also very young. The only somewhat negative you can say about the kid is that he is a RT (even though he could probably learn LT). That will be just fine for AZ.
Miami is reeling at this point. They take future assets as it looks like the plan is being pushed back a year. Unfortunately after FA and Flores being the worst coach (for a tank) I’ve ever seen. I’m not sure this team is bad enough to compete for Trevor or Justin.
  1. New York Giants – Andrew Thomas OT Georgia
I hate this pick. As a Browns fan I despise this pick. As much as I’d love to see Gettleman go BPA and take Okudah or Simmons, he knows what he has in Daniel Jones. He also knows his job depends on Daniel considering that was HIS GUY. As a result this move is all about setting Daniel up for success with some quality protection. I really, really hope he fools himself into thinking Becton is the choice, but he won’t. This is the right move.
  1. Cincinnati Bengals – Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
The Bengals need O-line help. They are doing things in reverse order from the Giants. The goal here is ensure the line can protect their guy immediately and avoid dropping a prized pony into a bad spot for the first time in their career. I’m looking at you Clemson and OSU lineman. We’ve seen what bad lines can do to young QB’s who have always had good ones *cough* Baker *cough* The Bengals avoid letting those bad habits develop for their Star next year. For bonus, it gives the team an insane rushing attack with a good line, McCafferey, and Mixon.
(NYJ send Pick 11 and a 2021 2nd to MIA for pick 8)
  1. New York Jets – Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
After seeing three tackles go already, the Jets get desperate to jump the Browns and get some much needed line help for Darnold. They overpay slightly, but they know it’s the only shot to get a tackle as Becton is the only blue chipper left. An absolute beast of potential. Hope it works out for the Jets. I think Jets fans should be cautiously optimistic here.
The Dolphins will eventually pick a player I promise, but at this point the GM has walked backwards into a surplus of assets. The Dolphins are smart enough to realize they can get a free second and still get one of Okudah, Simmons, Jeudy or Lamb.
  1. London Jaguars – Jeffrey Okudah CB tOSU
And with the quickest selection in NFL draft history the Jags take their heir to Ramsey.
Can’t get any easier than this. With the defensive exodus the Jags need to bring in some more players on that side of the ball. Okudah is BPA which I think the Jags will stick to fairly strictly. If not they could grab a Jeudy/Lamb and try to build around some mania.
  1. Cleveland Browns – Isaiah Simmons LB Clemson
This is generally the pick for those few freaks at browns who think the Browns should do something other than get a tackle. Now that makes sense. The Browns need S/LB help more than anything besides OT of course. Here comes a beast of a player who falls into their lap. Rejoice Browns fans! Right? No, I said this about the Peppers pick the SS/LB hybrid this high is a huge waste of an asset. Granted Simmons is a much better player than the spicy boy was. I guess the Browns can hope for a Derwin James here, and I hope that I get a raise tomorrow for doing such a good job staying at home. Personally I wanted Okudah a lot more even think the Browns have two great/good young CBs. I just see a ceiling of Ramsey+Bouye+Chris Harris Jr. out of Okudah+Williams+Ward. Sour grapes because 9 is the absolute floor for Okudah. Anyways back to this Browns’ nightmare draft.
  1. Miami Dolphins – Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
The Dolphins picked a player! They get their guy out of Bama. Oh wait, they get their other guy out of Bama. Jeudy will serve to be a fantastic partner for Parker who decided he wanted to not be bad recently. Again this team is about to add some real weapons/depth and get its next QB off to a running start. (I know it’s not Tua but Jeudy and 2 2nds next year is pretty cool)
  1. Las Vegas Raiders – CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
Are Raiders fans sick of seeing this pick? Or do they just get a little more excited each time they realize this is DEFINITELY going to happen. The Raiders can’t roll out their team with no WR1 (or really even WR2) again. Thanks AB. Gruden will love this dude. He is a beast of a weapon and should make Carr look like a player who belongs starting in the NFL again. Need I say more? Get excited Raiders fans.
  1. San Francisco 49ers – Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama
This team is obviously not far off at all. It kinda makes me mad that they are picking here after the newfound disgust I have for them after that embarrassment of a game vs. the Browns. Did you know you can re-watch that game for free right now? YOU CAN. I think I’d sooner buy that produce that was definitely touched by at least 100 people in the grocery store before me. Anyways they have a nice little luxury pick here. What team doesn’t want an explosive weapon to open up their offense to another degree? Think of all the speed on this team and think of how tough it’d be to stop the run and protect the middle from Kittle with this freaking little bugger on the outside zooming past everyone? Gross. Don’t think Tyreek and Chiefs here, think Brown and the Ravens. I think that’s a bit closer, regardless great pick.
  1. Tampa Bay Super Bowl Championeers – Joshua Jones OT Houston
Tom Brady is old. Tom Brady is not going to avoid pressure all that well. Jones is an accomplished blocker especially in pass sets. Let’s be honest, we know they want to throw the ball this year. They won’t do anything dumb like draft a RB here. They can just sign Gordon or if the sun decides to shine on Cleveland sign Hunt away from us for a second. Brady will need the time to throw to his mouth-watering duo of WRs and Joshua will help them get that. Also side note, Bucs what’re you doing?! sign back Perriman!
(DAL sends Pick 17 and 2021 3rd to DEN for pick 15)
  1. Dallas Cowboys – CJ Henderson CB Florida
Cowboys hop Atlanta for who they believe is the best DB available. CB is more valuable than safety. Also I don’t think they will go Chaisson. I think the draft community thinks a bit too much of him. Now back to Henderson. I’ve seen a lot of people who really don’t want to see him go to their team. Not sure why. Love the kid, great man coverage abilities. I view him similar to a Greedy Williams with less red flags.
  1. Atlanta Falcons – Kristian Fulton CB LSU
Such an all-around player. The Falcons do get hopped for a CB but I’m sure they can live with an extremely consistent player. He just doesn’t scream all-pro potential but it’s the middle of the first you’re looking for starters who can reach a pro bowl or two and this kid is that. Falcons need to get better on the back end if they want to compete in their division, which I can’t wait to watch.
  1. Denver Broncos – Jalen Reagor WR TCU
I’d wager a guess the Broncos wanted Ruggs fairly badly. I still think they go with WR and Reagor is a solid player. It is interesting to think how we might view the two prospects if we could see Ruggs in TCU’s situation and Reagor in Alabama’s system. I think we’d all be a bit higher on Reagor. This pick still scares me with all the unknown. The Broncos are undaunted and roll the dice on a talented player.
  1. Miami Dolphins – Xavier McKinney S Alabama
Remember when the Dolphins traded Minkah away? Their pass defense remembers. Miami gets a second versatile defender to add to an interesting secondary. Xavier is a safety, not exactly a value position but I’d be surprised to see them add more to the D-line this early in the draft after that FA class. The O-line pool is looking a bit dry, and I don’t think theyre bold enough to double dip on WR here. McKinney will do whatever Flores tasks him to do and he will do it well. I love the player just not the positional value.
  1. Las Vegas Raiders – Derrick Brown DI Auburn
I’m sure Gruden is loving the way the draft is falling for him this year. Maybe they will surprise us with their picks like last year. But in this scenario they don’t do anything weird. They grab the best player available stopping his slide. How did he end up all the way down here? Well every year it seems like there is always that one player right? I have it being Derrick Brown. Great player excellent at what he does well, but how high is too high to pick a run stuffing D lineman? Raiders need someone to help stop the bleeding on D and I think a player like Brown does just that. Huge win here for the Raiders.
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Javon Kinlaw DI South Carolina
Oh wow this idiot knows DTs exist after all. Yes, yes, Kinlaw comes off the board here. A player who should be exciting to watch. A great penetrator and PFF darling. I think that he fits exactly the kind of player that Jacksonville has sought after in the past. He should be very exciting to watch on that retooling D-line. Leaving with Kinlaw and Okudah should really reinvigorate that shell of a great defense.
  1. Philadelphia Eagles – Grant Delpit S LSU
I can’t believe they let Jenkins walk. That is just madness to me. They need to plug that hole or Philly risks a second secondary situation. I would’ve like to go receiver here but I just don’t think they will. I think a tackle is within reason here too should they see potential in one of the guys left. Back to Delpit. A great center fielder who is falling victim to early peak to his hype. It seems to be the trend to crap on him, and I really don’t see why. Sure not a great tackler, but the value he brings is in instincts and coverage. The kid I think will end up providing some value similar to Malik Hooker.
  1. Buffalo Bills – K’Lavon Chaisson EDGE LSU
Tools guy. Tons of burst/athleticism. Some games he played better than others but that tends to be the story of the EDGE position. The Bills D gets a bit scarier and I think an interesting combo with some of the athletic monsters on that team. I don’t think there is much do here on offense I just don’t really like any running backs this high but I think a star back would be good for them. I like the fit here though. Buffalo adds some speed.
  1. New England Patriots – Zach Baun LB Wisconsin
I’m not really sure I love Baun, but for some reason, this just feels correct. He feels like a Patirot or a Steeler. The versatility is great and I think he has a large amount of potential. I can see Bill saying this is my guy. We know the magic he can work with linebackers. Not a sexy pick but helping retool the D and keep it close-ish to the level it was last year.
  1. New Orleans Saints – Laviska Shenault WR Colorado
Versatile weapon. I also don’t really love him but some people really do. Maybe they are more creative than I am. So is Sean Payton. I would rather go CB here with Gladney, but I think the Saints are a bit too desperate for some help for cantguardmike. Sorry fantasy owners Shenault is here to diversify that offense.
  1. Minnesota Vikings – Denzel Mims WR Baylor
One receiver out another receiver in. I really like the fit here too. Great foot speed despite the limited route tree at Baylor. He is also a great contested catch player which happens to be similar to what just left that offense. I think they have obvious needs at corner here, however I think they need to keep the weapons multiple or that O is gonna come to a screeching halt if too much focus comes down on Cook.
  1. Miami Dolphins – Patrick Queen LB LSU
A player I’m a bit too high on I think. I really love the kid but there are so many concerns I have too. Huge boom or bust player but I think this is exactly the type of Defense he needs to get to. I also think he is the player that’s going to make this D special. It will take more pieces still but his impact will be felt. The speed he presents will be crazy. The kid will be everywhere, well everywhere he thinks he should be. Still a bit or a lot raw, just have to bear with him.
(KC sends Pick 32 and a 2020 3rd for SEA Pick 27)
  1. Kansas City Chiefs – Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma
The Chiefs do the AFCN a HUGE favor and leap the Ravens for Kenneth. The Chiefs don’t really have too many needs but that D needs to continue to improve. Murray will help with athleticism. A player who is so explosive and seems like what the Chiefs are doing on offense. I like the addition of him to their current unit and think he should breathe life into that D as such a different level of energy player.
The Seahawks and trading down. Just had to do it. They have some obscure player they want and we all know we won’t be taken in the next few picks.
  1. Baltimore Ravens – A.J. Epenesa
Quite honestly I think he would be a bust anywhere else, but I think he will be regarded the same way Judon is soon. Just a technician who seems like a poor man’s Joey Bosa. The scheme there is what really won for Judon according to PFF. All that being said this man is in line to receive the keys to the kingdom in the sense like Judon he is gonna go off in terms of production even if his talent doesn’t match. Now I think a player like Chaisson would be disgustingly good in this role Epenesa will do the job too. I’m just happy they didn’t get Chaisson, Queen, or Murray.
  1. Tennessee Titans – Marlon Davidson DL Auburn
Just gets it done on the line. Hard to say where he will play but with some vets leaving this line inside and out I think he slots in to both spots with a defensive head coach who is minded to maximize his potential. This dude is a dude. An absolute man. And I think that kind of think will appeal to Vrabel quite a bit. He is a people mover even if not a real pass rusher, Landry can fill that role.
  1. Green Bay Packers – Justin Jefferson WR LSU
I think Green Bay gets their guy. Rodgers just needs some more weapons and I think they’re getting a huge steal. Talk about a great fit for a player moving from Burreaux magic to Rodgers magic. He has a nack for just getting open in and out of phase. Draft this kid in fantasy if he goes here.
  1. San Francisco 49ers – A.J. Terrell CB Clemson
A longer corner. A fluid athlete. A succession plan and copy-cat for Richard Sherman. If the 9ers can get Sherman to rub off on this kid I think they’re getting great value. This team is in position and shows shown a tendency to build on strengths. Looking at you Bosa. I think they will look to the future with this pick.
  1. Seattle Seahawks – John Molchon G Boise State
Oh Yeah? Like you freaking know who the hell the Seahawks are gonna pick.
I’m completely kidding about this pick though. I would probably take Yetur Gross-Matos here and try and get some actual rush from that line. Bank on his development and go for BPA/ highest potential available. That feels a bit too obvious for the Seahawks doesn’t it though? So yeah the center from SMU or something.
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"Two Cents for a Quarterback" - Week 7 QB Rankings

I decided to release this into the wild after being encouraged by some of your comments (and after updating my QB model and testing the accuracy results). I've been posting QB rankings only as a quiet project on my own subreddit, until I could build up a little confidence. I've been more confident about my usual D/ST and Kicker rankings.

So let me start by listing:

Reasons for NOT posting a weekly QB column:

Based on all this, I will probably remain silent about my QB projections. But for today, it seemed harmless to make a single post, and to do it shortly after Mahomes was injured. The only way I'd consider keeping this up is if people actually like it, but I'm expecting people will hate it....

Background of QB model

The model was developed by the same process as my kicker and D/ST models: multiple linear regression on time-series data over the last 2½ seasons, for 80+ variables, with cross-validation and statistical significance used to narrow it down to just 9 variables. Before this week, I was trying to use a model with nearly 20 variables and I did not feel good about that fact at all. I was sure that I had not worked enough to reduce statistical over-fitting, and the extra variables were just creating noise. This was completely true, of course-- I know I should have been able to remove those extra variables before the start of this season. Some of those wrong variables seemed really illogical, like defensive touchdowns and kicker scoring, as well as dependence on TE and both team's RB2s. I had a strong feeling these had to go, and now they're gone (by cross-validating their effect over the last 2 years, NOT by just fitting the 2019 season, that would be cheap).
What remain are more sensible things we should expect: Predicted team game score, team offensive strength, QB rating, reliance on rushing vs. passing, opponent defensive strength, opponent interceptions and yards allowed, etc.

Retroactive accuracy

You could say it's a little bit cheating to revise my QB model and then look at accuracy backwards. The reason I'm okay with it is that really the only change was deleting some variables from the model-- the remaining ones are still regressed to the last 2 full seasons of QB fantasy scores. You can still find the old accuracy reports on my personal sub-reddit, and they will stay there for documentation. But here's how the last 6 weeks would have looked if I had limited my model to just the 9 variables:
(EDIT: this is for my QB model run with my own modeled game scores, not with Vegas lines)
You can find the description for this in my other kicker and D/ST posts. This shows how many fantasy points the top-ranked QBs score compared to the bottom-ranked QBs.
Main point is: I expect my model should at least keep pace with other good sources. Which means future week forecasting (that other sites do not provide) also have statistical validity.

Week 7 Rankings

Reminder: You're not going to find my QBs rankings looking similar to other sources. I believe other sources prioritize star names and narratives, above opponent stats. My output is all done on the statistically-backed assumption that QBs are sensitive to their match-up.
As I wrote in my "quiet post" yesterday: I know I'm much lower than others on Lamar this week. The reason is the above-average interception rate of the Seahawks. And... it is also the Ravens' lowest Vegas-implied team score since week 3. I'm especially high on Jones and Goff-- But in line with the above discussion, these two QBs are supported in part by the Vegas odds: The Giants and Rams are projected at their highest-yet implied game scores for the season. (Rams were also implied at 29 points back in week 4, when Goff scored exactly the 20.7 I have him projected at this week.)
I would add now: I know Darnold looks low for the next couple weeks, but it's just scheduling. Then he'll have 6 decent weeks.
QB Week 7 Week 8 Team Opponent
Josh Allen 22.3 16.6 Bills Dolphins
Ryan 21.1 19.3 Falcons Rams
Goff 20.6 21.7 Rams Falcons
Jones 20.5 13.3 Giants Cardinals
Brady 20.1 21.7 Patriots Jets
Minshew 19.7 18.4 Jaguars Bengals
Moore (KC) 19.3 15.4 Chiefs Broncos
Wilson 19.2 23.3 Seahawks Ravens
Wentz 19.1 14.7 Eagles Cowboys
Jackson 18.3 Ravens Seahawks
Brissett 18.1 15.9 Colts Texans
Prescott 17.9 Cowboys Eagles
Watson 17.8 20.1 Texans Colts
Garoppolo 17.2 12.7 49ers Redskins
Tannehill 16.5 17.8 Titans Chargers
Murray 16.2 14.0 Cardinals Giants
Dalton 15.7 16.4 Bengals Jaguars
Cousins 15.5 21.5 Vikings Lions
Rodgers 15.2 14.8 Packers Raiders
Trubisky 15.0 16.5 Bears Saints
Flacco 14.5 11.9 Broncos Chiefs
Bridgewater 14.3 21.1 Saints Bears
Stafford 14.2 20.8 Lions Vikings
Rivers 13.2 16.5 Chargers Titans
Darnold 12.0 13.3 Jets Patriots
Carr 11.0 17.3 Raiders Packers
Rosen 9.4 6.9 Dolphins Bills
Keenum 9.3 9.6 Redskins 49ers
Kyle Allen 6.7 Panthers
Rudolph 17.4 Steelers
Mayfield 10.1 Browns
Winston 13.5 Buccaneers

Rest of Season

Now we come to the part where everyone gets really angry. You're not used to seeing Minshew high, or Cousins or Trubisky for that matter. Garoppolo has been scoring low and shouldn't be up so high. Rodgers and Murray are way way too low, and Darnold is gonna be way better than that. Winston just isn't that good, he can't be that high.
I get it. And I say go with your gut. I would note that a lot of the strange-looking ranks have to do with schedule differences in the second half of the season compared to the first half, and anyway the numbers are going to look different when the actual Vegas lines come out, instead of my modeled game projections. So don't try to take this chart as an absolute guideline for who is the better QB. You should really just take the chart more as a suggestion, for identifying some match-ups where your QB might risk busting.
The QBs are ordered here according to simple average of future game projections, not skill level or best roster selection. All match-ups are evaluated as if they were being played by the teams today (except for the missing Packers WRs and a couple other position absences here and there).
This table has been updated since the original post, after removing another one of the model's parameters that I don't really believe in.
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vegas odds eagles vs cowboys week 17 video

NFL Week 17: Washington at Eagles Vegas Odds, Pick, Preview (Jan 3) NFL Week 17: Washington at Eagles Vegas Odds, Pick, Preview (Jan 3) ... Washington vs Eagles Vegas Odds. Bet Type. Washington vs Eagles Preview ... They only lost to the Cardinals by seven points and were up 14-3 to the Cowboys last week before their defense gave up 34 points ... NFL Week 17 odds, picks: Cowboys now favored over Giants plus more reactions from Week 16 Jordan Dajani 12/29/2020 'A lot of chaos': 1 dead, at least 5 injured after driver strikes pedestrians ... Eagles 17 vs Cowboys 37 Result NFL Week 16 Score. NFL News . ... Eagles team totals, spreads and lines. The latest Philadelphia team stats, NFL Futures & Specials, including Vegas Odds the Eagles Winning the NFL Championship, Philadelphia NFL News & other info on the Philadelphia Eagles. ... Seahawks 23 vs Eagles 17 Result NFL Week 12 Monday ... Eagles 17 vs Cowboys 37 Result NFL Week 16 Score. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys Early Picks and Betting Trends December 27, 2020. NFL News . Super Bowl LV Aftermath: Why the Chiefs Lost. ... Specialising in American Vegas Style Odds, NFL , MLB, NBA, NHL and College Sports Betting. Below are the complete betting lines for all the Week 17 games, including the point spreads and totals. These are the consensus odds from multiple sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online, via OddsShark . Betting on Week 17 of the NFL season can be an adventure, and the Eagles vs. Washington game was the perfect example of that. NFL picks Week 15: Vegas Vic is taking Jalen Hurts and the Eagles vs. Cardinals by Ed Barkowitz , Updated: December 18, 2020 Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts face off Sunday in a meeting of former Oklahoma quarterbacks. The Eagles' last win came in their Super Bowl-winning season in '17, when they routed the Cowboys 34-9 in Dallas in November. The Cowboys overall are 4-2 straight up and 4-2 against the spread ... The Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) visit the Dallas Cowboys (5-9) on Sunday, December 27, in matchup between NFC East opponents at AT&T Stadium. Dallas is a underdog and the over/under is set at . The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 22, 2020, 1:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook. Cowboys vs. Eagles Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction Charlie Grant Updated Dec 27, 2017

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vegas odds eagles vs cowboys week 17

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