Racing Value at bet365

The purpose of this thread is to discuss anything related to todays matches, questions, predictions, bets etc that dont have a dedicated matchthread.
The daily bet thread for 04.10.2020. This Thread is meant for every game starting between 0:00 CET and 23:59 CEST on 04.10.2020
For Matches starting after that, please use the Thread for the next day, which should be posted arround 21:00 CEST today.
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Good Luck for your bets.

Preface
Let's take a quick journey back to March, when the absence of major-market sports caused degens everywhere to turn to betting Korean Baseball, Madden Sims, and even weather markets to get their gambling fix. Among these, Russian Table Tennis emerged from the depths of the motherland, becoming popular on books of all sizes.
Nobody knows much about these games. Are Russia Liga Pro games fixed? Probably. Personally, I theorize that the games aren't necessarily fixed, but that each night, the Russian Mafia feeds winning players while the others watch. Why else would they be motivated to try? The league has no playoffs and no apparent prizes for top performers.
The games feature players from apparent grandpas with white hairs and knee braces to young boys who hardly look old enough to drive. They are played in a small room with tarped walls, with only the scorekeeper and players in view. The league is practically made to be bet on, and with over 100 twenty minute games a day, there's plenty of opportunities for aspiring degenerates to get the rush of gambling without sitting through 90-minute soccer matches and three hour-long tennis matches.
Now, why should you take advice from me? I've maintained about a 78% record on my Russian TT picks, and have doubled my bankroll multiple times over. I've been banned from a few books for "sharp action," and had my table tennis limited on others. Feel free to PM me to get access to the discord where I post all my picks for free ;) But enough of that, let's talk about my betting strategy.
Step 1: Narrow Down the Slate
Before you even sign in to your book, I recommend narrowing down the upcoming games within the next ~3 hours on Flashscore. Don't worry about the odds at this point, simply pick the games that stand out to you. Go down the list, and click on each game to view the stats for the matchup. When you see a game you like, simply click the checkbox next to it and it will be added to the "My Games" section for easier access. When looking for games to bet on, I look for two main criteria. In order of importance:

• Head to Head Results - This is my most important criteria when selecting games to bet on. In most cases, I only take games where one opponent is clearly dominating the H2H category. I look for games where one player has won AT LEAST 4 of the last 5 games head to head, and preferably at least 8 of the last 10 games head to head. As a rule of thumb, if the recent H2H look solid but the longer-term head to head is split between the players, avoid betting that game. If there are less than five previous meetings between the players, I recommend avoiding the game. Remember, we want to bet high-probability games to beat the house edge. If you are unsure about a matchup, avoid it. There are plenty of other games to bet on, so don't force it. Here is an example of a game with a great H2H record. Molodstov has won all five of the recent meetings, and nine of the previous ten. Here is an example of a game with a bad H2H record. While Poletaev has an advantage having won six of the previous ten meetings, Nikiforov has won three of the most recent five. Avoid betting on games like these!
• Overall Form - Once you've checked off the head to head category, check out the players' recent non-H2H games. Look at their most recent ten matches rather than just the previous 5. If their form is mostly similar, such as this example where both have a similar number of wins in their previous ten, then the bet meets the criteria. Another possibility is that the player that has dominated in H2H is in significantly worse form than their opponent, such as here. In this situation, avoid betting the game. The best-case scenario is when the player who has dominated H2H is in significantly better form than their opponent, who may have a losing record over the previous ten or be on a losing streak. In this example, Kutuzov has dominated head to head, and is in significantly better form than Migalov, who is on a 10 game losing streak. We would take action on Kutuzov here. As a rule of thumb, never bet on a player on a 5+ game losing streak to win, and vise versa.

Go through the slate and look for games that meet these two criteria. Don't worry about the odds at this step, simply short-list the games you'd like to bet!
Step 2: Making the Bets
Once you have your shortlist, it's time to place your bets. One important thing to keep in mind is that it's perfectly fine to take a juiced line to get a bet you're perfectly confident in. Often times, I play lines that are as low as -270 to get a moneyline bet that I like. When we're betting heavy favorites, your win percentage should be at least 70% to stay consistently profitable. I typically bet 2 units on most straight plays, though you can play around with your unit size to see what works best for you. Consistency is key!
Often times, you will find that the lines on the games you've picked simply have too low odds. In this case, don't give up on it yet! There are a few strategies you can use to still take action on these games while not having to risk a significant amount. Keep in mind, not all books will offer these options. Bovada is one of the worst books to use for table tennis! Bet365 is my favorite, as they have the most options for action beyond only moneyline bets.

• Parlay Favorites - You can parlay two of your selections together to get it down to very good odds, and often times even plus-value odds! Some books will only allow you to parlay games from the same league (Liga Pro), others will only let you parlay from separate leagues (ex. 1 game from Setka Cup, 1 game from Liga Pro). If your book lets you parlay Table Tennis, you have a great tool at your disposal, use it! If you usually bet 2U on your straight bets, I recommend betting only 1.5 on parlays, as you are spreading the risk over two games instead of one, even if they are heavy favorites.
• Play -1.5 Sets - Be careful with this one! Most books will let you play -1.5 sets at odds between -105 and -145. Make sure you look at the H2H scores before placing a bet on this prop. If the player you're betting on usually wins 3-2, avoid this bet. If he is winning 3-1 and 3-0 the majority of the time, then this bet makes sense. Use your judgment here! For this bet to hit, you need your player to win with a score of either 3-1 or 3-0.
• Play the Under - Most books will give you an oveunder on total points. If you're really confident on your player to dominate, you can take the under (total will typically be between 72.5 and 76.5). This is usually the riskiest of the options, as even a set score of 3-1 can hit the over if the game is close. I typically do not recommend playing the under, unless it is a particularly high number (74.5 or above) and the player typically wins 3-0 in head to head.

Step 3: Enjoy the Games, Reverse Jinxes are Key!
Unless your book offers you a live stream, it's often hard to find a good stream to watch Liga Pro games. If you're hell-bent on watching the game, I recommend using sportplus(dot)live, though they are inconsistent with their TT streams working. I usually keep track of the live scores on FlashScore. Now, when you're watching these games, NEVER, not even for a second, get confident that your bet is going to win. This is how you get screwed. I cannot stress enough how many times I've seen -300 or lower favorites go up 2-0, only to blow a 9-5 or such lead in the third set and get reverse swept. If you want to win your bets, you must be consistently reverse-jinxing Vladimir or Pavel or whoever you've bet on. He's up 10-5? Screw him. He's going to choke. He gives up a point? Screw him and everything he stands for. This mindset will work you wonders, trust me. No positivity until your bet wins. The moment you become confident, they fuck up - it happens every time!
Closing
I hope this guide is helpful to my fellow degens out there. I will likely publish a second edition discussing Live Betting tactics and other betting strategies I use to pick lower-juice plays in the near future, but this should be a great starting point for anyone looking to make some money betting Russian Table Tennis. As always, best of luck! Feel free to PM me or comment with any questions.

Anyone bet on alpine skiing (FIS World Cup)??
I made a good amount picking Mikaela Shiffrin to win in Courchevel last weekend at 11 odds & 3.75 to place on the podium. I think there is value here.
A couple races start in 4ish hours with more this weekend. My picks (that will probably flame out since I’ve posted this):
Bet365 Matchup Parlay: Kilde > Jansrud [1.83] (Val Gardena Super G) ✅ + Goggia > Breezy Johnson [1.83] (Val d’isere Downhill)✅
Vincent Kriechmayr > Mauro Caviezel [2.10] (Val Gardena Super G) ❌
Lara Gut-Behrami Podium YES [3.75] (Val d’Isere Downhill) ❌
Who’s tailing???

Si14 token deficit. Dear Partners! Due to numerous requests, we inform you about the closing of the private sale of Si14 tokens. Exchange, on which you can buy token https://p2pb2b.io/trade (trading pair USDt - Si14) The fair price for the token is 137 USD Si14 AG has formed sales of individual packages of 100,000 tokens Si14 address (https://etherscan.io/token/0x8b98dF4Dff429E64E9A56fc6Eebe2380c6c3409c) To purchase token package: 1) Apply [email protected] 2) Complete KYC procedure 3) Conclude an official contract with the company to purchase Si14 AG token Dear users, the official value of the Si14 token is 123 USD. Stay tuned for our news and join the success story. For more information, visit https://Si14bet.io Dear investors, You also have the opportunity to become a co-founder of Si14 AG. Our company is conducting the second investment stage of selling the company's share. You can leave a request for consultation at [email protected]. #Si14 #betfair #bet365 #Si14Bet #oods #livebetting #soccerbetting #bettingtip #soccerbetting #bookies #bettingexchange #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #millionaire #billionaire #makemoney #moneyonline #bettingexchang
https://reddit.com/link/la06gp/video/z4cmw7c7fue61/player

Hey sportsbook, i've been betting on UK & Irish horse racing for most of my life, in recent years i've developed a system based algorithm to find undervalued horses which I've been running for 4 years now. I'm willing to share 1 of my systems daily for abit of fun and to bring some attraction to the great sport that is Horse racing.
System stats: Average odds: 7.8 Strike rate: 26.46% pts over 4 year period: 4648 (so $4648 to $1 stakes) ROI: 18.2%
How to bet the system: Its extremely important that the bets are placed the day before the races, this is extremely important and known as taking "EP" or "Evening price" the reasoning for this is that our system has identified the value before the money has flooded into the market, hence shortening the odds, so the earlier you bet THE BETTER, some sportsbooks i'd reccomend for racing are Bet365 and Boylesports as they both have great promotions and price their races earlier than most books. I should also note never to take "SP" price as its bad value.
Tomorrows picks:
Curragh 14:05: Breaking News 14:40 Kudbegood 14:40: Matilda With Me 15:50: Cardinal Rule 16:20: Pretty Boy Floyd
Hereford 12:40: Lord apparelli 13:10: My Mums Posh 13:10: Cushuish 14:10 Across the line 14:45: Kauto the king 15:20: Wiscracker
Kempton 13:50: Cashel 14:20: Perfect inch 16:35 Loxley 16:35: Tribal Craft
Plumpton 12:50: Hawk wind 13:20: Hidden cargo 13:55: Gunnery 15:05: Constancio 15:40: Mind your back
Wolverhampton 17:20: Batraan 17:50: Minhaaj 18:20: Dazzling Rock 18:50: Shamshon 20:20: Plansina
I've made my own post as There is only weekly discussion for horse racing sadly, I hope this changes. If you are skeptical about my model put $0.10 on each horse and see how you fair, you might be surprised at the results, hf all

Day 2, Races from the 2nd of November haven't concluded yet but I believe so far we're sitting at a couple of points in the minus as of now. A few second place finishes on a some big priced runners so if you went each way you should have a decent profit for today.
Q&A Can I go each way?: Absolutely you can, but in the long run you'll get less returns, your strike rate will increase to above 50% though so its less variance and more stable. Why is there more than 1 horse in some races?: More than 1 horse can qualify for the systems criteria so dont worry about betting multiple horses in the same race.
System stats: Average odds: 7.8 Strike rate: 26.46% pts over 4 year period: 4648 (so $4648 to $1 stakes) ROI: 18.2%
How to bet the system: Its extremely important that the bets are placed the day before the races, this is extremely important and known as taking "EP" or "Evening price" the reasoning for this is that our system has identified the value before the money has flooded into the market, hence shortening the odds, so the earlier you bet THE BETTER, some sportsbooks i'd reccomend for racing are Bet365 and Boylesports as they both have great promotions and price their races earlier than most books. I should also note never to take "SP" price as its bad value.
Also note: the Max drawdown of this algorithm is 98 points so its important to always keep around 150 points worth of bankroll to sustain bets over the long haul. Not every day will win but over the course of a month profit is almost guaranteed.
Tomorrows picks:
Southwell 13:33: Fortultous 14:03: Coqueta 14:03: Kitzbuhel 14:33: Vape 14:33: Global Humor 15:33: Lord of the Glen 16:03: Mokaman 16:33: Harmonious 17:03: Russian Rumour
Redcar 12:40: Embolden 14:10: Bill Peyto 15:10: Finoah 15:40: Lunar Jet 16:10: Ingleby Hollow
Exeter 13:55: Talk of Fame 14:25: Not That Fuisse 14:55: Enrilo 15:55: Meep Meep 16:25: Jalingo 16:25: Lady Reset 16:25: Jobesgreen Lad
Fairyhouse 12:45: Court Tycoon 13:45: Sideshift 14:15: Fakiera
Newcastle 16:45: Omany Amber 18:15: Jacattack 18:45: Traveller 19:45: Mutalahef
If skeptical at first glance there's nothing wrong with placing $0.10 on each horse and seeing how things run. Any questions feel free to ask.

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First, I am from Denmark, huge soccer fanatic and I occasionally do some sports betting once in a while.
So, I have been reading all the fuzz about DKNG and I know that the majority of the people here are US based, so I understand that sports betting apparently have been illegal in several states (all?), correct? So, I just quickly ran some numbers - please read this through and down downvote me yet haha, but from 2019 DKNG had"According to filings posted Thursday, 2019 revenues came in at $323 million*, but the company’s net loss almost doubled year-on-year from* $76 million to $142 million*."* (https://www.legalsportsreport.com/39020/draftkings-2019-revenue-report/) and comparing with the stocks market cap of 12.292B atm, it seems outright crazy (unless there's something I don't know about).Alright, why look back though, when you invest for future gains, I know. You say it is the technology and platform which is great and therefore it will grow a lot. But is it just because you are not aware of the big sports betting companies outside the US?
Again, I am from Denmark and in Europe sports betting is huge and there are some super big players. Check companies like BET365 "gaming revenue hit £2.98b, up 10% from fiscal 2017-18, while operating profit rose 12% to £767.1m and after-tax profit gained 16% to £681.7m."
Ladbrokes-Coral Group 2.5 Billion GBP / 30000 employeesPaddy Power Betfair Plc 1.75 Billion GBP / 8000 employeesWilliam Hill Plc 1.7 Billion GBP / 16000 employeesBet365 Group Ltd 2.3 Billion GBP / 3500employees888 Holdings Plc 600 Million GBP /1600 employeesBetfred 800 Million GBP / 1000 employees (https://playright.co.uk/betting/biggest-companies/)
These companies above are just UK based. There are a lot more in Europe - you get the gist.
So, why is it that DKNG has so much value? I have a super hard time imagining that the platform is better than all of those above, which have huge budgets and honestly I use Bet365 personally, they livesteam the games on your phone etc., great platform, super responsive etc. Is it because the majority in here has narrowed down their focus on US based companies only? I see no reason why the above mentioned companies shouldn't be able to gain huge chunks of the US market? I mean, I can bet on anything there, even US college/lower tier football/basketball, I can bet on who's going to be the next POTUS (Biden has a lead according to Bet365), all sorts of E-sport events, there's literally ANYTHING. I'm genuinely curious and want to know why it is such a "good" investment?
EDIT: Okay, so to write it super quick. If, and this "IF" is crucial, the US sports betting market is regulated such that US customers are exclusive to US sports betting companies, I can see where the hype is coming from ish. However, IF, the regulations lift and the European companies can enter the US market, I believe that you underestimate these monsters of betting companies and I do believe with the cash that they're sitting, can take a huge piece of the market, which means that DKNG's valuation based on % of the marketshare is wrong.

I don't know if I'll keep doing this but I had a fun time preparing for the game last time doing it and hopefully it helps get people excited for the game this weekend.

Positional Talent Breakdown

This is my opinion on the state of the two rosters and is subject to being wrong. The scoring is 3 for a push, +- 1 for slight dis/advantage, +- 2 for a big dis/advantage. This is assuming that Nick Chubb out, as expected.

Position	Colts	Browns
QB	2	4
WR	1	5
RB	3	3
TE	4	2
Run Blocking	2	4
Pass Blocking	4	2
Pass Rush	2	4
Interior DL	3	3
LB	4	2
CB	2	4
Safeties	2	4
Specialists	4	2
Play Calling	2	4
TOTALS	36	42

Power Rankings

Colts	Browns	Source
14	12	SportingNews
13	14	ProFootballNetwork
10	12	NBC
12	13	MSN
12	11	NFL SpinZone
11	13	Fansided
14	11	Heavy.com
10	15	The Lines
11	15	NFL.com week 4
11.89	12.89	AVERAGES

Betting Odds/Predictions

Source. All of the point spreads were identical, Browns were picked as the better line in 6 out of the 9 sources.
|Colts|Browns|Pick|Source| |-2.5|+2.5|Colts|DraftKings| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|BetMGM NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|FanDuel NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|PointsBet NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Colts|SugarHouse| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|Bet365 NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Colts|UnibetNJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|William Hill NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|63% Browns|Yahoo!|

Strength of Victories / Weakness of Losses

This is a measure of the quality of the wins and losses. The strength of victory is one of the tie breaker metrics, described here (high number is good). Weakness of losses is a similar metric but to describe how bad a loss is (high number is bad). Because we have no common opponents to date, that metric is not included. These numbers are between 0 and 1. Because the Browns only loss was to the 3-1 Ravens, they have a better loss score than we do, who lost to the 1-3 Jags. We have a slightly better Strength of Victory than the Browns.

Metric	Colts	Browns
SoV	0.333	0.273
WoL	0.75	0.25

Team Rankings

Credit to the Yahoo! app for these values.

Metric	Colts	Browns
PPG	25.8	31.0
PPG Rank	18th	4th
Def PPG	14	31.5
Def PPG Rank	1st	28th
Yards/G	365.5	396.0
Yards/G Rank	22nd	14th
Pass Yards/G	250.3	191.5
Pass Yards/G Rank	20th	32nd
Rush Yards/G	115.3	204.5
Rush Yards/G Rank	15th	1st
Sacks	10.0	11.0
Sacks Rank	8th	6th
Interceptions	7	4
Interceptions Rank	1st	4th

History

The series between the Colts and the Cleveland Browns is tied at 17-17-0. However, since the Colts have been in Indianapolis, they lead the series 12-6, including 8 of the last 9. The two teams have met in the playoffs 4 times, with the most recent one coming in 1988 and the other 3 coming in the Baltimore Colts years.

Keys to winning

For the Colts: - Getting pressure on Mayfield (one of the league's worst under pressure in 2019) - Continued improvement in 3rd down, especially in scoring position - Stopping big plays on Defense - Turning field goals into TDs - (edit) Make Mayfield have to try to beat you deep
For the Browns: - Establish the run game against a strong defensive front - Get OBJ going early - Get pressure on Phillip Rivers - Winning field position battle

Fun fact from last game:

For the last 4 elections, when the Colts have beat the Bears, Republicans have won the presidential election that year. When the Bears have beaten the Colts, Democrats have won the presidential election that year. By this B.S. model, Donald trump will re-elected.
Edit: I originally saw this on the bears subreddit. Didn't realize it had been cross posted to ours before posting.

My Prediction

Both teams are coming into this game with a 3 game winning streak. This feels like a must-win game for the Browns because they have to compete with the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North. I believe that the Browns offense, even without Nick Chubb will be able to get more done against the Colts defense than the Colt's offense can accomplish against the Browns Defense. Kevin Stefanski will be able to will his team to victory and expose some of the weaknesses the Colts have been able to keep hidden so far this season on defense. Sadly, I think the Browns will win this game 31-20, please prove me wrong, Colts.

Morning soccerBetting, my name is Joe and I have been busy building a new tool during lockdown that you might find useful. It lets you set alerts on football matches, with a focus on real customisation per-game. Right now, you can create alerts using the following data:

• Results
• Goals
• Cards
• Corners

Join OddAlerts Beta
I have a lot of big features planned for this, but I need users to test the hell out of it whilst I continue building improvements and listening to your feedback. There’s already a group of people on Twitter testing it out (and successfully finding value, too), please join them if you can.
Let’s say you find a fixture (or 10) where you think there will be a first-half goal. You can set an alert that says something like: “Let me know if there have been no goals after 15 minutes”. With most games, the value is in play.
Soon I’ll be implementing live odds support, so the above alert would become: “Let me know if the odds for 0.5 goals have hit 1.80”. It becomes a very powerful tool. You will notice a Roadmap page on the website, this is where you can see what I’m actively working on.
I have recorded a video that walks you through why I’m making this tool and how to set everything up.

• OddAlerts Beta: Video Walkthrough
• Follow on Twitter

Finally, a bit of background on myself. I have been working for FootyStats for the past 2 years as a freelance web developer, building tools such as the Match Search, Predictions, Team Search, and more. I have wanted to build my own product in this space for a while now and the recent lockdown provided me with the perfect opportunity to do so. A few similar tools exist but I have never been satisfied with the way they work.
I want to give you complete control and power over these alerts, whilst keeping you away from staring at Bet365’s in-play section. That’s a dangerous thing to do, so I hope that OddAlerts can be a companion that you use whilst researching your upcoming bets. I will be building this product completely in the open, so please follow along on Twitter if you can.
Best,
Joe

Closing of the first stage of investment.
https://reddit.com/link/j3ssed/video/35j97prm2oq51/player
Dear partners! We would like to thank you for entering the first investment stage of the innovative Si14 sports betting exchange. This stage is closed. Our company has entered the phase of the second stage of investment in the project Si14: 2 Stage from 01.10.2020 to 01.05.2021: 5% of Si14 AG shares - value USD 4.4 million 3 Stage from 01.05.2021 to 01.12.2021: 5% of Si14 AG shares - value USD 9 million 4 Stage from 01.12.2021 to 01.07.2022 : 10% of Si14 AG shares - value USD 26.2 million 5 Stage from 01.07.2022 to 01.02.2023 : 8% of Si14 AG shares - value USD 35.5 million Follow our news and join in the success story. For more information, please visit https://Si14bet.io #Si14 #betfair #bet365 #Si14Bet #oods #livebetting #soccerbetting #bettingtip #soccerbetting #bookies #bettingexchange #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #millionaire #billionaire #makemoney #moneyonline #bettingexchang #bettingexperts #onlinesport #onlinesport #casino

I’m just wondering what everyone’s take is as too which offers more value, Pinnacle with their consistent slightly betters lines or Bet365 with their early payout & bet builder features?

Dear partners, the first investment round of Si14 AG is drawing to a close. Stages of selling Si14 AG share 1 stage until 01.10.2020 : 5% of Si14 AG shares - value USD 2 mln. Stage 2 from 01.10.2020 to 01.05.2021: 5% of Si14 AG shares - the value of 4.4 million USD Stage 3 from 01.05.2021 to 01.12.2021: 5% of Si14 AG shares - the value of 4.4 million dollars: 5% of shares of Si14 AG - value 9 million USD 5 Stage from 01.12.2021 to 01.07.2022 : 10% of shares of Si14 AG - value 26.2 million dollars. 6 Stage from 01.07.2022 to 01.02.2023 : 8% of Si14 AG shares - value USD 35.5 million : 10% of Si14 AG shares - value USD 26.2 million You can send a request to acquire a stake in Si14 AG to [email protected] or contact the project manager. https://Si14bet.io #Si14 #betfair #bet365 #Si14Bet #oods #livebetting #soccerbetting #bettingtip #soccerbetting #bookies #bettingexchange #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #rich #bookmaker #sportsgambling #millionaire #billionaire #makemoney #moneyonline #bettingexchang #bettingexperts #onlinesport #onlinesport #casino
https://reddit.com/link/ixo0u6/video/r2hyuv1ohpo51/player

A recurring theme I’ve seen here is guys playing huge parlays with multiple games ending before the last games start. You lose so much value doing it this way, and even more if you hedge your last play.
I’m going to use Vegas numbers for ease of math, and assume -110 odds, but know online books pay a bit better on parlays.
Let’s say theres 6 games you really like. Of the 6 games, 3 play at 1pm, 2 games at 4, and 1 at 8pm. You have $100 to lose on this weeks games.
A 6 team parlay pays 45:1 so you’d profit $4500 if all 6 hit. Or, if you break it down to blocks of games you would risk $100 on the first 3 at 6:1 leaving you with $700 ($600 profit). Put that $700 into another 2 team that wins you $1820 for $2520 ($2420 profit) total. Roll that into the final game and you’re risking $2520 to win $2290, for a total of $4810, resulting in an additional $210 profit.
If you’re someone who hedges, let’s say you played that 6 teamer but hedged $300 the other way before the 8pm game. If your 6 team wins you profit $4170. If it loses lose you profit $200. BUT, if you played the 3 team and 2 team parlays and wanted to guarantee a $200 profit, you’d risk only risk $2220 on the final game, resulting in a profit of either $200 or $4238, or $68 (roughly 1/3 your hedge amount) more than you’d have won if you’d just hedged a 6 team.
To give an idea how bad parlays really pay: $100 wins $4500 on a 6 team but if you stack your plays instead:
$100 to win $91 —— $191 to win $173 —— $364 to win $331 —— $695 to win $631 —— $1326 to win $1206 —— $2532 to win $2305 = 4841
If you win all 6, an initial $100 bet returns $4841, or $241 more profit than a 6 team parlay, and you have to option of betting less on any game without losing equity and vig betting against yourself.
Long story short: if any of your plays start/end at different times, you’ll do better in the end if you treat them as individual plays.
Another edit: if you played the 3-2-1 hypothetical format above and won the first two parlays, you could bank your initial wager from the first parlay and play with house money for the last leg- and still have the chance to win more than if you’d played a 6 team.
Edit: sorry about the formatting, mobile let me down.
Ok, one more edit: Stacking 6 plays individually should pay +4741 (all at -110 odds)
I looked at a few books: Sportsbook pays +4000 but there’s an error in their system that’s treating buying points as if you were selling them (buying a +1 -110 to +1.5 -120 pays +4549) so I’m not sure what their correct structure is.
Bovada pays +4741 at -110 My bookie pays +4700 at -110 FanDuel pays +4741 (-110) Bet365 pays +4741 (110)
So I guess the majority of online books do in-fact stack the plays. If you play in Vegas, it appears Jerry’s Nugget is the only one that offers the correct +4741, William hill offers 45:1, while all the others offer 40:1. So my advice still stands if you’re playing in Vegas, or if you’re going to hedge your last game.
Moral of the story: Don’t hedge your last play, shop around to be sure you’re getting fair values on your parlays, and play around with formats to maximize your odds, especially if you’re hitting up Vegas

With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors.
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So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful.
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Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable.
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Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors.
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Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal
Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are.
With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk.
If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred.
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6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham
With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham.
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Note: I will update this post with the key offers closer to the time.
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1. Practice Makes Perfect
When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out.
So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes.
If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’.
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2. Be Organised
This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March).
Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable.
Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals.
If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit.
Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race.
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3. Go Easy Early
Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying.
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4. Odds Boosts & VIP
Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins.
Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative.
If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat.
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5. Enjoy It
Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job.
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6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse!
Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish?
Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it.
What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers?
This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up.
Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham.
Extra place strategies are worth looking at. This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum.
Anything I Should Be Looking Out For?
One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings.
This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out.
Should You Book Time Off Work?
Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week.
That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier.
However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise?
Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March).
The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end.
Cheltenham Schedule
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Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020)
13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase
15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle
16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase
17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup
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Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020)
13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase
14:50 - The Coral Cup
15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper
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Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020)
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13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase
14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final
14:50 - The Ryanair Chase
15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle
16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate
16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
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Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020)
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13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle
14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle
14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup
16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup
16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase
17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
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Our Predictions
Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers.
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Epatante
Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse.
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Benie Des Dieux
Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare.
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Envoi Allen
Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts.
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Defi Du Seuil
Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers.
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Tiger Roll
Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that.
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Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section. It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread – here the best offers of the day will be discussed.
If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide.
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Discount:
£2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads.
Discount code: BUILDUP
Click the link to have the code automatically applied:
https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP
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Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx
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The most important thing is to get involved!
Best of luck and happy profit hunting!

I am developing an odds api for tennis. It already fetches odds from more than 50 bookmakers but it is still in a pre-beta phase and in constant development.
Some of the supported bookmakers are: Pinnacle, Bet365, Betway, Betfair, Bovada, Bodog, WilliamHill, Marathon, Unibet, BetSafe, 888Sport, 10Bet, BetHard, Guts, 22Bet, etc
The api is totally free and all I ask in return is for your feedback and what the community values more.
Here's a response example from a set of current live matches: https://pastebin.com/ZhvTs5sX
If you are interested in testing and using it you can either reply to this post or message me and I will get back to you with more details on how to access the API and a valid token.